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The purpose of this report is to provide an overview of existing methods and techniques making use of personal identifiers to support record linkage. Record linkage can be loosely defined as a methodology for manipulating and / or transforming personal identifiers from individual data records from one or more operational databases and subsequently attempting to match these personal identifiers to create a composite record about an individual. Record linkage is not intended to uniquely identify individuals for operational purposes; however, it does provide probabilistic matches of varying degrees of reliability for use in statistical reporting. Techniques employed in record linkage may also be of use for investigative purposes to help narrow the field of search against existing databases when some form of personal identification information exists.

In 1999, as part of its General Social Survey program, Statistics Canada conducted a survey on victimization and public perceptions of crime and the justice system. It was the third time that the General Social Survey (GSS) had examined victimization - previous surveys were conducted in 1993 and 1988.

For the 1999 survey, interviews were conducted by telephone with approximately 26,000 people, aged 15 and older, living in the 10 provinces. Respondents were asked for their opinions concerning the level of crime in their neighbourhood, their fear of crime and their views concerning the performance of the justice system. They were also asked about their attitudes toward sentencing adult and young offenders. Respondents were randomly presented with one of four hypothetical situations for which they were asked to choose "prison" or "non-prison". Respondents who selected prison sentences were given a follow-up question that asked them whether a sentence of one year of probation and 200 hours of community work was an acceptable alternative to the prison sentence.

This Juristat examines public attitudes toward sentencing adult and young offenders. It also analyzes public attitudes toward four sectors of the justice system including, the police, the criminal courts, the prison and parole systems.

This article examines whether the education levels of graduates surpass the needs of employers, and to what extent.

This article provides an analysis of the employment and earnings patterns of recent postsecondary graduates, based on three waves of the National Graduates Surveys.

This Juristat outlines the characteristics of criminal harassment incidents as well as the characteristics of the accused and victim for 1999, and identifies trends over the past five years. (Trend data are only available for the five-year period from 1995 to 1999.) This Juristat updates a similar Juristat written in 1996 using information collected from police forces and adult criminal courts to review the charges laid and sentences imposed for cases involving criminal harassment.

There are many different types of stalkers. However, most victims of criminal harassment know their accused quite well and, in many instances, the stalker and victim were involved in a previous relationship.

Statistics Canada publishes several measures of farm income, each produced for a different purpose. This bulletin describes the concepts behind these different measures, the methods by which the measures are constructed, and the uses for which they were designed.

Canada's ports handled a record 382.0 million tonnes (Mt.) of cargo in 1999 and a record of 2.2 million TEURS (twenty-foot-equivalent units) of containers.

Third quarter 1999 operating ratios for top carriers improved by one point over the same period one year earlier to 0.93 but were unchanged in the fourth quarter (0.94). Average revenue per carrier grew by 3% in the third quarter and 4% in the fourth quarter.

This study looks at those who voluntarily work part time, as well as their reasons for doing so, their levels of work-related stress, and their job characteristics.

This Bulletin provides recent information on the performance and funding of Federal Government Expenditures on Scientific Activities, 2000-2001. The statistics presented are derived from the survey of the science and technology (S&T) activities of Federal departments and agencies. According to international convention, S&T is divided into two fields; Natural Sciences and Engineering (NSE) and Social Sciences and Humanities (SSH). These fields of science are further divided into Research and Development (R&D) and Related Scientific Activities (RSA).

This publication presents a timely picture of employment, earnings and hours which is vital for Canada's businesses and governments for planning and decision-making purposes. The tabulations focus on annual labour market information and historical data series. The major economic variables for over 280 industries are provided at the national and provincial/territorial level. The publication includes notes on the concepts and methods of the monthly survey. The "Help-Wanted index 1981-1999 supplement" is included in this publication.

Reduced barriers to trade across North America and increasingly mobile populations have created a heightened need for information on transportation services and infrastructure. North American transportation highlights provides key summary statistics on trade and travel, safety, and energy use of transportation in Mexico, the United States and Canada. Statistical tables and charts contained within the report are accompanied by data sources and notes describing data categories and definitions relating to each country.

The report was developed under the framework of the North American Transportation Statistics Interchange representing the transportation and statistical agencies of Mexico, the United States and Canada. Participating agencies include the Secretaría de Comunicaciones y Transportes, the Instituto Mexicano del Transporte, and the Instituto Nacional de Estadística Geografía e Informática from México; the Bureau of Transportation Statistics and the Census Bureau from the United States; Statistics Canada and Transport Canada. It was produced and released by the U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) in December 1999 and is part of more comprehensive report, North American transportation in figures (catalogue no. 50-501-XIE) released in October 2000.

There is a diversity of manufacturing activity that contributes to Canada's regional economies. The spatial distribution of these activities is far from symmetrical, with most activity being concentrated within the Québec City - Windsor corridor. In 1997, the provinces of Ontario and Québec accounted for approximately 76% of Canada's value of shipments. Using data from the Annual Survey of Manufactures, two maps have been created to highlight the predominant manufacturing activity by census division in 1983 and 1997. Employing advanced mapping software, it is possible to accurately make maps which show the correspondence between manufacturing activity and the ecumene. The brief discussion herein will help readers to interpret the enclosed maps.

The Manufacturing, Construction and Energy Division is engaged in finding alternatives to presenting data from the Annual Survey of Manufactures using advanced mapping technology. This technology enables us to present a coherent spatial representation of manufacturing activity across Canada. The interactive map presents provincial principle statistics and highlights, with a view to disseminating knowledge and stimulating discussion.

This bulletin is a preliminary release of 1998 annual data for the Cellular Telecommunications Industry (including PCS and ESMR service providers) with accompanying data from 1995.

The most recent issue contains "Food producers maintain expansion" by Peter Zylstra. Food commodity processors are engaged in a multitude of manufacturing activities. The aggregate performance of these is the subject of this article. Common influences on all processing industries that make up the Food Industries Major Group are examined, while specific ones that impact some and not others are also discussed. Growth in food industries has always been a function of population growth. In addition, health considerations and new product development are important factors. The summary of recent developments is based on results of the 1997 Annual Survey of Manufactures. Other sources are also used for industry analysis as well as for the provision of industry environment and economic background.

This article is divided into three sections. Section 1 describes results for small for-hire carriers; section 2 contains data for owner operations; and section 3 provides a general discussion of Annual Motor Carriers of Freight survey data quality.

This study presents 1997/1998 LFS earnings estimates for about 85,000 drivers employed by for-hire carriers (companies whose principal business is transportation of goods for a fee) in comparison to drivers employed in private trucking (companies that transport their freight by truck, but whose principal business activity is not trucking) and the overall labour force. Wages and earnings estimated presented in this study exclude owner operators and self-employed workers.

This publication shows expenditures, by industry, for the various types of packaging materials.

The cable and other program distribution industry has reported revenues of $3.1 billion in 1998, a 10.0% increase over 1997. This relatively strong growth is due in large part to the fast growing non-basic services segment. While revenue from basic services grew moderately (2.1%) revenue from non-basic and other services increased by 29.0%.

This article examines the issue of non-union members who are covered by collective agreements, comparing the Canadian picture in the late 1990s with that of the United States. An accompanying update, which covers the first half of 2000, provides Perspectives annual socio-demograhic and economic profile of union members.

For some time, concerns have been raised about the movement of young people away from rural areas, mainly to find work. This article provides information on the extent to which youths stay, leave or return to rural communities. (Adapted from a recently published analytical report.)

The correlation of occupational gender composition and wages is the basis of pay equity/comparable worth legislation. A number of previous studies have examined this correlation in US data, identifying some of the determinants of low wages in "female jobs", as well as important limitations of public policy in this area. There is little evidence, however, from other jurisdictions. This omission is particularly disturbing in the case of Canada, which now has some of the most extensive pay equity legislation in the world. In this paper, we provide a comprehensive picture, circa the late 1980's, of the occupational gender segregation in Canada and its consequences for wages. We also draw explicit comparisons of our findings to evidence for the United States. We find that the link between female wages and gender composition is much stronger in the United States than in Canada, where it is generally small and not statistically significant. The relatively more advantageous position of women in female jobs in Canada is found to be linked to higher unionization rates and the industry-wage effects of "public goods" sectors.

This paper addresses the topic of inter-provincial migration in terms of the basic question: "who moves?" Panel logit models of the probability of moving from one year to the next are estimated using samples derived from the Longitudinal Administrative Database covering the period 1982-95. Explanatory variables include "environmental" factors, personal characteristics, labour market attributes, and a series of year variables. Separate models are estimated for eight age-sex groups.

The major findings include that: i) migration rates have been inversely related to the size of the province, presumably capturing economic conditions, labour market scale effects, and pure geographical distance, while language has also played an important role; ii) residents of smaller cities, towns, and especially rural areas have been less likely to move than individuals in larger cities; iii) age, marriage, and the presence of children have been negatively related to mobility, for both men and women; iv) migration has been positively related to the provincial unemployment rate, the individuals' receipt of unemployment insurance (except Entry Men), having no market income (except for Entry Men and Entry Women), and the receipt of social assistance (especially for men); v) beyond the zero earnings point, migration has been positively related to earnings levels for prime aged men, but not for others, and these effects are generally small (holding other factors constant); vi) there were no dramatic shifts in migration rates over time, but men's rates dropped off a bit in the 1990s while women's rates (except for the Entry group) generally held steadier or rose slightly, indicating a divergence in trends along gender lines.

There has been for some time substantial concern regarding the loss of young people in rural communities. There is a sense that most rural communities offer few opportunities for their younger people, requiring them to leave for urban communities, most likely not to return. While there is a considerable body of research on interprovincial migration, relatively little is currently known about migration patterns in rural and urban areas in Canada.

According to our analysis, in virtually all provinces young people 15 to 19 years of age are leaving rural areas in greater proportions than urban areas - in part to pursue post-secondary education. While there are more complex migration patterns affecting the 20-29 age group, the net result of all migration is that the Atlantic provinces - as well as Manitoba and Saskatchewan - are net losers of their rural population aged 15-29. The problem is particularly acute in Newfoundland. In the Atlantic provinces, rural areas which fare worse than the national average - in terms of net gains of youth population - do so not because they have a higher than average percentage of leavers but rather because they are unable to attract a sufficiently high proportion of individuals into their communities.

Of all individuals who move out of their rural community, at most 25% return to this community ten years later. The implication of this result is clear: one cannot count on return migration as a means of preserving the population size of a given cohort. Rather, rural areas must rely on inflows from other (urban) areas to achieve this goal. Some rural communities achieve this; that is, they register positive net in-migration of persons aged 25-29 or older, even though they incur a net loss of younger people.

Individuals who move out of rural areas generally experience higher earnings growth than their counterparts who stay. However, it remains an open question in which direction the causality works: is the higher earnings growth the result of the migration process itself or does it reflect the possibility that people with higher earnings growth potential are more likely to become movers?

This article explores regional differences among students who drop out of Canadian universities and community colleges.

This article explores the effects of increasing costs on university attendance and the subsequent labour market outcomes of graduates.

This paper examines the characteristics of young people who responded to the 1991 School Leavers Survey (SLS), but who subsequently failed to respond to the 1995 School Leavers Follow-up Survey (SLF).

Fabricated metal products industries remain in the middle of an expansion period. The construction sector's vitality, as well as the high North-American demand for industrial products, allow metal products manufacturers to live glorious days. However, where competitiveness is concerned, there could be trouble in paradise. In the last few years, the cost of labour has been on the rise, while the value added for each paid hour has been weakening. Moreover, imports have been increasing at a higher pace than exports in the last two years.

The Survey of Household Spending (SHS), which replaced the periodic Family Expenditure Survey (FAMEX) in 1997, is an annual survey that collects detailed expenditure information from households for a given calendar year. Due to the heavy response burden placed on respondents of this survey, it was decided for the 1997 survey to perform a test of incentive effect on response rates. Two incentives were used: a one-year subscription to the Statistics Canada publication Canadian Social Trends and a telephone calling card. The response rate data was analysed using Fisher's exact test and some non-parametric methods. After controlling for a discovered interviewer assignment effect, it was found that there was some evidence of a telephone card effect in the western and eastern most regions of Canada, while there was no evidence of any effect for the magazine. These findings were somewhat corroborated by a separate study testing effects of incentives on respondent relations. All these results will be discussed in this paper.

Much work on probabilistic methods of linkage can be found in the statistical literature. However, although many groups undoubtedly still use deterministic procedures, not much literature is available on these strategies. Furthermore there appears to exist no documentation on the comparison of results for the two strategies. Such a comparison is pertinent in the situation where we have only non-unique identifiers like names, sex, race etc. as common identifiers on which the databases are to be linked. In this work we compare a stepwise deterministic linkage strategy with the probabilistic strategy, as implemented in AUTOMATCH, for such a situation. The comparison was carried out on a linkage between medical records from the Regional Perinatal Intensive Care Centers database and education records from the Florida Department of Education. Social security numbers, available in both databases, were used to decide the true status of the record pair after matching. Match rates and error rates for the two strategies are compared and a discussion of their similarities and differences, strengths and weaknesses is presented.

The fusion sample obtained by a statistical matching process can be considered a sample out of an artificial population. The distribution of this artificial population is derived. If the correlation between specific variables is the only focus the strong demand for conditional independence can be weakened. In a simulation study the effects of violations of some assumptions leading to the distribution of the artificial population are examined. Finally some ideas concerning the establishing of the claimed conditional independence by latent class analysis are presented.

Following the problems with estimating underenumeration in the 1991 Census of England and Wales the aim for the 2001 Census is to create a database that is fully adjusted to net underenumeration. To achieve this, the paper investigates weighted donor imputation methodology that utilises information from both the census and census coverage survey (CCS). The US Census Bureau has considered a similar approach for their 2000 Census (see Isaki et al 1998). The proposed procedure distinguishes between individuals who are not counted by the census because their household is missed and those who are missed in counted households. Census data is linked to data from the CCS. Multinomial logistic regression is used to estimate the probabilities that households are missed by the census and the probabilities that individuals are missed in counted households. Household and individual coverage weights are constructed from the estimated probabilities and these feed into the donor imputation procedure.

To reach their target audience efficiently, advertisers and media planners need information on which media their customers use. For instance, they may need to know what percentage of Diet Coke drinkers watch Baywatch, or how many AT&T customers have seen an advertisement for Sprint during the last week. All the relevant data could theoretically be collected from each respondent. However, obtaining full detailed and accurate information would be very expensive. It would also impose a heavy respondent burden under current data collection technology. This information is currently collected through separate surveys in New Zealand and in many other countries. Exposure to the major media is measured continuously, and product usage studies are common. Statistical matching techniques provide a way of combining these separate information sources. The New Zealand television ratings database was combined with a syndicated survey of print readership and product usage, using statistical matching. The resulting Panorama service meets the targeting information needs of advertisers and media planners. It has since been duplicated in Australia. This paper discusses the development of the statistical matching framework for combining these databases, and the heuristics and techniques used. These included an experiment conducted using a screening design to identify important matching variables. Studies evaluating and validating the combined results are also summarized. The following three major evaluation criteria were used; accuracy of combined results, statibility of combined results and the preservation of currency results from the component databases. The paper then discusses how the prerequisites for combining the databases were met. The biggest hurdle at this stage was the differences between the analysis techniques used on the two component databases. Finally, suggestions for developing similar statistical matching systems elsewhere will be given.

Data fusion as discussed here means to create a set of data on not jointly observed variables from two different sources. Suppose for instance that observations are available for (X,Z) on a set of individuals and for (Y,Z) on a different set of individuals. Each of X, Y and Z may be a vector variable. The main purpose is to gain insight into the joint distribution of (X,Y) using Z as a so-called matching variable. At first however, it is attempted to recover as much information as possible on the joint distribution of (X,Y,Z) from the distinct sets of data. Such fusions can only be done at the cost of implementing some distributional properties for the fused data. These are conditional independencies given the matching variables. Fused data are typically discussed from the point of view of how appropriate this underlying assumption is. Here we give a different perspective. We formulate the problem as follows: how can distributions be estimated in situations when only observations from certain marginal distributions are available. It can be solved by applying the maximum entropy criterium. We show in particular that data created by fusing different sources can be interpreted as a special case of this situation. Thus, we derive the needed assumption of conditional independence as a consequence of the type of data available.

The effect of the environment on health is of increasing concern, in particular the effects of the release of industrial pollutants into the air, the ground and into water. An assessment of the risks to public health of any particular pollution source is often made using the routine health, demographic and environmental data collected by government agencies. These datasets have important differences in sampling geography and in sampling epochs which affect the epidemiological analyses which draw them together. In the UK, health events are recorded for individuals, giving cause codes, a data of diagnosis or death, and using the unit postcode as a geographical reference. In contrast, small area demographic data are recorded only at the decennial census, and released as area level data in areas distinct from postcode geography. Environmental exposure data may be available at yet another resolution, depending on the type of exposure and the source of the measurements.

As the population ages, a greater demand for long-term care services and, in particular, nursing homes is expected. Policy analysts continue to search for alternative, less costly forms of care for the elderly and have attempted to develop programs to delay or prevent nursing-home entry. Health care administrators required information for planning the future demand for nursing-home services. This study assesses the relative importance of predisposing, enabling, and need characteristics in predicting and understanding nursing-home entry.

A population needs-based health care resource allocation model was developed and applied using age, sex and health status of populations to measure population need for health care in Ontario. To develop the model, provincial data on self-assessed health and health service utilization by age and sex from 62,413 respondents to the 1990 Ontario Health Survey (OHS) were used in combination with provincial health care expenditure data for the fiscal year 1995/96 by age and sex. The model was limited to the services that were covered in the OHS (general practitioner, specialist physician, optometry, physiotherapy, chiropractic and acute hospital). The distribution of utilization and expenditures between age-sex-health status categories was used to establish appropriate health care resource shares for each age-sex-health status combination. These resource shares were then applied to geographic populations using age, sex and health status data from the OHS together with more recent population estimates to determine the needs-based health care resource allocation for each area. Total dollar allocations were restricted to sum to the 1995/96 provincial budget and were compared with 1995/96 allocations to determine the extent to which Ontario allocations are consistent with the relative needs of the area populations.

To augment the amount of available information, data from different sources are increasingly being combined. These databases are often combined using record linkage methods. When there is no unique identifier, a probabilistic linkage is used. In that case, a record on a first file is associated with a probability that is linked to a record on a second file, and then a decision is taken on whether a possible link is a true link or not. This usually requires a non-negligible amount of manual resolution. It might then be legitimate to evaluate if manual resolution can be reduced or even eliminated. This issue is addressed in this paper where one tries to produce an estimate of a total (or a mean) of one population, when using a sample selected from another population linked somehow to the first population. In other words, having two populations linked through probabilistic record linkage, we try to avoid any decision concerning the validity of links and still be able to produce an unbiased estimate for a total of the one of two populations. To achieve this goal, we suggest the use of the Generalised Weight Share Method (GWSM) described by Lavallée (1995).

The application of dual system estimation (DSE) to matched Census / Post Enumeration Survey (PES) data in order to measure net undercount is well understood (Hogan, 1993). However, this approach has so far not been used to measure net undercount in the UK. The 2001 PES in the UK will use this methodology. This paper presents the general approach to design and estimation for this PES (the 2001 Census Coverage Survey). The estimation combines DSE with standard ratio and regression estimation. A simulation study using census data from the 1991 Census of England and Wales demonstrates that the ratio model is in general more robust than the regression model.