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- 11. When are census counts improved by adjustment? ArchivedArticles and reports: 12-001-X198800214592Description:
There are persuasive arguments for and against adjustment of the U.S. decennial census counts, although many of them are based on political rather than technical considerations. The decision whether or not to adjust depends crucially on the method of adjustment. Moreover, should adjustment take place using say a synthetic-based or a regression-based method, at which level should this occur and how should aggregation and disaggregation proceed? In order to answer these questions sensibly, a model of undercount errors is needed which is “level-consistent” in the sense that it is preserved for areas at the national, state, county, etc. level. Such a model is proposed in this article; like subareas are identified with strata such that within a stratum the subareas’ adjustment factors have a common stratum mean and have variances inversely proportional to their census counts. By taking into account sampling of the areas (e.g., by dual-system estimation), empirical Bayes estimators that combine information from the stratum average and the sample value, can be constructed. These estimators are evaluated at the state level (51 states, including Washington, D.C.), and stratified on race/ethnicity (3 strata) using data from the 1980 postenumeration survey (PEP 3-8, for the noninstitutional population).
Release date: 1988-12-15 - Articles and reports: 12-001-X198800214593Description:
In Australia, population estimates have been obtained from census counts, incorporating an adjustment for under-enumeration in 1976, 1981 and 1986. The adjustments are based on the results of a Post Enumeration Survey and demographic analysis. This paper describes the methods used and the results obtained in adjusting the 1986 census. The formal use of sex ratios as suggested by Wolter (1986) is examined as a possible improvement of the less formal use made of these ratios in adjusting census counts.
Release date: 1988-12-15 - 13. A demographic approach to the evaluation of the 1986 Census and the estimates of Canada’s population ArchivedArticles and reports: 12-001-X198800214594Description:
A significant increase in coverage error in the 1986 Census is revealed by both the Reverse Record Check and the demographic method presented in this paper. Considerable attention is paid to an evaluation of the various components of population growth, especially interprovincial migration. The paper concludes with an overview of two alternative methods for generating postcensal estimates: the currently-in-use, census-based model, and a flexible model using all relevant data in combination with the census.
Release date: 1988-12-15 - 14. Evaluation of reverse record check estimates of undercoverage in the Canadian Census of Population ArchivedArticles and reports: 12-001-X198800214595Description:
Estimates of undercoverage in the Canadian Census of Population have been produced for each Census since 1961, using a Reverse Record Check method. The reliability of the estimates is important to how they are used to assess the quality of the Census data and to identify significant causes of coverage error. It is also critical to the development of methods and procedures to improve coverage for future Censuses. The purpose of this paper is to identify potential sources of error in the Reverse Record Check, which should be understood and addressed, where possible, in using this method to estimate coverage error.
Release date: 1988-12-15 - Articles and reports: 12-001-X198800114596Description:
Dual system estimators of census undercount rely heavily on the assumption that persons in the evaluation survey can be accurately linked to the same persons in the census. Mismatches and erroneous non-matches, which are unavoidable, reduce the accuracy of the estimators. Studies have shown that the extent of the error can be so large relative to the size of census coverage error as to render the estimate unusable. In this paper, we propose a model for investigating the effect of matching error on the estimators of census undercount and illustrate its use for the 1990 census undercount evaluation program. The mean square error of the dual system estimator is derived under the proposed model and the components of MSE arising from matching error are defined and explained. Under the assumed model, the effect of matching error on the MSE of the estimator of census undercount is investigated. Finally, a methodology for employing the model for the optimal design of matching error evaluation studies will be illustrated and the form of the estimators will be given.
Release date: 1988-06-15 - 16. Measuring accuracy in a post-enumeration survey ArchivedArticles and reports: 12-001-X198800114597Description:
The U.S. Bureau of the Census will use a post-enumeration survey to measure the coverage of the 1990 Decennial Census. The Census Bureau has developed and tested new procedures aimed at increasing the accuracy of the survey. This paper describes the new methods. It discusses the categories of error that occur in a post-enumeration survey and means of evaluation to determine that the results are accurate. The new methods and the evaluation of the methods are discussed in the context of a recent test post-enumeration survey.
Release date: 1988-06-15 - 17. Handling missing data in coverage estimation, with application to the 1986 Test of Adjustment Related Operations ArchivedArticles and reports: 12-001-X198800114598Description:
This paper discusses methods used to handle missing data in post-enumeration surveys for estimating census coverage error, as illustrated for the 1986 Test of Adjustment Related Operations (Diffendal 1988). The methods include imputation schemes based on hot-deck and logistic regression models as well as weighting adjustments. The sensitivity of undercount estimates from the 1986 test to variations in the imputation models is also explored.
Release date: 1988-06-15 - Articles and reports: 12-001-X198800114599Description:
As part of the planning for the 1990 Decennial Census, the Census Bureau investigated the feasibility of adjusting the census for the estimated undercount. A test census was conducted in Central Los Angeles County, in a mostly Hispanic area, in order to test the timing and operational aspects of adjusting the Census using a post-enumeration survey (PES). This paper presents the methodology and the results in producing a census that is adjusted for the population missed by the enumeration. The methodology used to adjust the test census included the sample design, dual-system estimation and small area estimation. The sample design used a block sample with blocks stratified by race/ethnicity. Matching was done by the computer with clerical review and resolution. The dual-system estimator, also called the Petersen estimator or capture-recapture, was used to estimate the population. Because of the nature of the census enumeration, corrections were made to the census counts before using them in the dual-system estimator. Before adjusting the small areas, a regression model was fit to the adjustment factor (the dual-system estimate divided by the census count) to reduce the effects of sampling variability. A synthetic estimator was used to carry the adjustment down to the block level. The results of the dual-system estimates are presented for the test site by the three major race/ethnic groups (Hispanic, Asian, Other) by tenure, by age and by sex. Summaries of the small area adjustments of the census enumeration, by block, are presented and discussed.
Release date: 1988-06-15 - Articles and reports: 12-001-X198800114600Description:
A personal computer program for variance estimation with large scale surveys is described. The program, called PC CARP, will compute estimates and estimated variances for totals, ratios, means, quantiles, and regression coefficients.
Release date: 1988-06-15 - Articles and reports: 12-001-X198800114601Description:
The Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) is an ongoing nationally representative household survey program of the Bureau of the Census. The primary purpose of the SIPP is to improve the measurement of information related to the economic situation of households and persons in the United States. It accomplishes this goal through repeated interviews of sample individuals using a short reference period and a probing questionnaire. The multi-interview design of the SIPP raises methodological and statistical issues of concern to all panel surveys of families and persons. This paper reviews these issues as they relate to the SIPP. The topics reviewed are: 1) questionnaire design; 2) data collection, including respondent rules, data collection mode, length of reference period, and rules for following movers; 3) concepts, design, and estimation; and 4) response error.
Release date: 1988-06-15
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- 21. On the stratification of skewed populations ArchivedArticles and reports: 12-001-X198800114602Description:
For a given level of precision, Hidiroglou (1986) provided an algorithm for dividing the population into a take-all stratum and a take-some stratum so as to minimize the overall sample size assuming simple random sampling without replacement in the take-some stratum. Sethi (1963) provided an algorithm for optimum stratification of the population into a number of take-some strata. For the stratification of a highly skewed population, this article presents an iterative algorithm which has as objective the determination of stratification boundaries which split the population into a take-all stratum and a number of take-some strata. These boundaries are computed so as to minimize the resulting sample size given a level of relative precision, simple random sampling without replacement from the take-some strata and use of a power allocation among the take-some strata. The resulting algorithm is a combination of the procedures of Hidiroglou (1986) and Sethi (1963).
Release date: 1988-06-15 - 22. Multipurpose sample designs ArchivedArticles and reports: 12-001-X198800114603Description:
Most surveys have many purposes and a hierarchy of six levels is proposed here. Yet most theory and textbooks are based on unipurpose theory, in order to avoid the complexity and conflicts of multipurpose designs. Ten areas of conflict between purposes are shown, then problems and solutions are advanced for each. Compromises and joint solutions fortunately are feasible, because most optima are very flat; also because most “requirements” for precision are actually very flexible. To state and to face the many purposes are preferable to the common practice of hiding behind some artificially picked single purpose; and they have also become more feasible with modern computers.
Release date: 1988-06-15 - 23. Errors in foreign trade statistics ArchivedArticles and reports: 12-001-X198800114604Description:
In spite of·the comparative ease with which studies of error in foreign trade statistics could be conducted, there are few attempts to quantify their size, origin, distribution, and change over time. Policy makers and trade negotiators have little notion of how uncertain these statistics are in spite of their great detail. This paper takes advantage of a World Trade Database developed by Statistics Canada to examine and quantify discrepancies in existing foreign trade statistics.
Release date: 1988-06-15
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