On variances of changes estimated from rotating panels and dynamic strata - ARCHIVED

Many business surveys provide estimates for the monthly turnover for the major Standard Industrial Classification codes. This includes estimates for the change in the level of the monthly turnover compared to 12 months ago. Because business surveys often use overlapping samples, the turnover estimates in consecutive months are correlated. This makes the variance calculations for a change less straightforward. This article describes a general variance estimation procedure. The procedure allows for yearly stratum corrections when establishments move into other strata according to their actual sizes. The procedure also takes into account sample refreshments, births and deaths. The paper concludes with an example of the variance for the estimated yearly growth rate of the monthly turnover of Dutch Supermarkets.