Economic and Social Reports, May 2026

Released: 2026-05-27

There are four new articles available in today's release of Economic and Social Reports.

Faster growth in labour productivity among industries dependent on United States demand for Canadian exports compared with other industries in the business sector

Recent trade tensions between the United States and Canada have raised questions around the impact of tariffs on Canadian industries dependent on US demand. Those are defined as industries in which 35% of jobs or more depended on US demand for Canadian exports of goods and services in 2023. The article "Labour productivity in industries dependent on United States demand for Canadian exports," found that labour productivity in such industries grew by 4.4% from 2019 to 2024, while labour productivity in the rest of the business sector grew by 0.5% over the same period.

While industries dependent on US demand collectively outperformed other industries in terms of labour productivity growth from 2019 to 2024, this was not even across the 22 subsectors of these industries. Among industries dependent on US demand over this period, clothing and leather and allied product manufacturing (26.5%), pipeline transportation (15.1%) and oil and gas extraction (12.1%) were the top three performers. The bottom three performers were business-to-business electronic markets, and agents and brokers (-13.7%), transportation equipment manufacturing (-11.3%) and fishing, hunting and trapping (-11.2%).

Although it is too early to know the full extent of the impact of US tariffs on the Canadian economy, the potential loss of jobs in more productive industries as a result of these tariffs could result in a further slowdown of overall labour productivity growth in Canada.

Occupational match among recent immigrants associated with substantial economic benefits

Employment that aligns with immigrants' pre-migration qualifications is an important indicator of successful economic integration. The study, "Occupational match and economic outcomes of recent immigrants: A broad assessment," investigates how often recent immigrants end up working in occupations consistent with the one they intended to pursue at admission. It also examines the earnings consequences of working inside or outside those intended occupations.

Drawing on linked data from the Longitudinal Immigration Database and the 2021 Census of Population, the study finds that, among immigrants admitted to Canada from 2010 to 2020, roughly one in five were employed in their intended specific occupation in 2021. Occupational matching was more common among immigrants with graduate degrees, those arriving from more developed source countries and those who had Canadian work experience prior to admission. These patterns highlight the role of both immigration selection mechanisms and prior exposure to the Canadian labour market in facilitating access to intended occupations.

Working in an intended occupation is also associated with substantial economic benefits. On average, immigrants working in their intended occupation in 2021 earned nearly 50% more than those who moved into other occupations. The earnings penalty associated with occupational mismatch was particularly large among highly educated immigrants. Overall, the findings suggest that improving occupational alignment is important for immigrants' individual economic outcomes as well as for maximizing the broader economic contributions of immigration.

Childhood immigrant apprentices have lower certification rates than Canadian-born counterparts

Skilled trades workers have remained in demand over the past several decades, partly due to an aging workforce and higher retirements compared with many other occupations. The study, "Becoming journeypersons: A comparative study of childhood immigrant apprentices and Canadian-born apprentices from registration to certification," examined certification outcomes through 2023 for apprentices who registered from 2008 to 2015. The study compared apprentices who were childhood immigrants (individuals admitted to Canada at age 17 years or younger) with Canadian-born apprentices.

The results showed that childhood immigrant apprentices represented about 4% to 5% of new registrations in apprenticeship training programs from 2008 to 2015, while Canadian-born apprentices accounted for 95% to 96%. Across these registration cohorts, 16% to 25% of apprentices obtained certification within the expected program length. This increased to 33% to 45% when allowing up to twice the expected program duration for completion. In most cohorts, certification rates were lower among childhood immigrants. For example, in the 2013 cohort, 19% of childhood immigrant apprentices certified on time, compared with 22% of Canadian-born apprentices. After adjusting for demographic, income, program-related characteristics and cohort, childhood immigrant apprentices remained about 3 percentage points less likely than their Canadian-born counterparts to obtain certification over the maximum observed duration.

These findings highlight differences in certification outcomes between childhood immigrant apprentices and their Canadian-born counterparts and contribute to better understanding apprenticeship progression and potential future labour supply in the skilled trades. Further research is needed to examine the factors underlying these differences, including potential barriers related to networks, potential competing responsibilities and access to support.

Quantitative impact analysis: A practical overview

As the scale and complexity of public business support programs increase, policymakers require rigorous evidence of both program effectiveness and the mechanisms through which firms benefit. The article "Quantitative impact analysis: A practical overview," outlines quantitative methods that can be used to evaluate the economic impacts of programs delivered by federal agencies and Crown corporations. The methodological framework is described in the paper "Applied Quantitative Impact Analysis: A Review of Contemporary Methods for Evaluating Programs Serving Businesses," also released today.

The methodological approach uses combined data sets to facilitate the creation of treatment groups, covariates and a wide range of outcome measures, such as sales, employment, payroll and productivity. The article illustrates how these tools can be used to generate evidence on firm-level outcomes. It also illustrates how Statistics Canada's integrated microdata can support the quasi-experimental methods that form a robust foundation for assessing the effectiveness of public programs and improving accountability in government interventions.

Products

The May 2026 issue of Economic and Social Reports, Vol. 6, no. 5 (Catalogue number36280001), is now available. This issue contains the articles "Labour productivity in industries dependent on United States demand for Canadian exports," "Becoming journeypersons: A comparative study of childhood immigrant apprentices and Canadian-born apprentices from registration to certification," "Quantitative impact analysis: A practical overview" and "Occupational match and economic outcomes of recent immigrants: A broad assessment."

Contact information

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