Canada's large urban centres continue to grow and spread

Released: 2022-02-09

In 2021, nearly three in four Canadians (73.7%) lived in one of Canada's large urban centres, up from 73.2% five years earlier.

These large urban centres with a population of 100,000 or more people, referred to as census metropolitan areas (CMAs), accounted for most of Canada's population growth (+5.2%) from 2016 to 2021.

Canada continues to urbanize as large urban centres benefit most from new arrivals to the country. From 2016 to 2019, Canada welcomed a record high number of immigrants and more than 9 in 10 settled in CMAs.

There were six more CMAs in 2021 compared with five years earlier, another sign of the increasing urbanization of the country.

Rapid population growth in cities is increasing the need for infrastructure, transportation and services of all kinds—including front-line emergency services. Further urban spread also raises environmental concerns such as car-dependent cultures and encroachment on farmlands, wetlands and wildlife.

Using new 2021 Census data, today we look at how Canada's 41 large urban centres have evolved since 2016 and since the onset of the pandemic. For the first time, we focus on population changes within different areas located inside Canada's CMAs and see that population growth within our cities has not been uniform across their territory.

Most CMAs across Canada, big and small, are generally structured the same way. There is a downtown, usually characterized by a high concentration of apartments, condos, offices, shops, restaurants, theatres and bars. There is also an urban fringe, which often includes neighbourhoods of single family or town homes with a yard, low rise condos and apartments, occasionally interspersed by commercial or industrial zones. Various types of suburbs surround the downtown core and urban fringe, and depending on the size of the city, can stretch out anywhere from a ten minute drive to a thirty or more minute journey to the downtown (see text box What constitutes a downtown or a suburb?).

Although most CMAs take on the same basic form, each is unique in that they reflect the character of the Canadians who live there. Location within Canada and home prices are also important considerations, as are the economic, social, health and education benefits afforded to those who choose to live there.

The downtowns in Canada's large urban centres are growing rapidly while urban spread continues

Two concurrent phenomena are changing the face of most of Canada's large urban centres.

The population of the vast majority of downtowns is growing faster than before, while urban spread also continues and in some large urban centres is accelerating.

While the population of neighbourhoods between the downtown and the most distant suburbs are also rising, they are growing at a much slower pace.

Map 1 
Urban spread is continuing in the census metropolitan area of Toronto while its downtown is growing more rapidly than before

Map 2 
Montréal's downtown grew at the second-fastest pace nationally from 2016 to 2021, while its distant suburb is also rising fast

Map 3 
Distant suburb makes up more than half of Vancouver census metropolitan area's population growth while its downtown has the highest population density in the country

Downtowns are growing faster than five years ago

Infographic 1 
Among Canada's downtowns, the population is growing the fastest in those of Halifax, Montréal and Kelowna

Overall, the populations of downtowns grew at over twice the pace from 2016 to 2021 (+10.9%) compared with the previous five-year period (+4.6%), despite a slowdown since the onset of the pandemic in the spring of 2020.

Most downtowns (36 of 42) saw their population rise from 2016 to 2021. Most also saw their pace of population growth accelerate (33 of 42) compared with the previous census cycle from 2011 to 2016.

The population of downtowns (+10.9%) also rose at a faster pace compared with the population of CMAs overall (+6.1%). In other words, urban centres—particularly downtowns—have become more densely populated since 2016.

This is a reversal of the trend from 2011 to 2016, when the population of downtowns (+4.6%) grew at a slower pace compared with CMAs as a whole (+6.2%).

Several downtowns in Canada's largest CMAs, those of one million people or more, were among the fastest growing from 2016 to 2021 (Montréal: +24.2%; Calgary: +21.0%; Toronto: +16.1%).

The downtown population of Halifax (+26.1%) grew almost three times faster compared with the entire Halifax CMA (+9.1%), while the downtown of Montréal (+24.2%) grew more than five times faster than the Montréal CMA (+4.6%).

The populations of Canada's two largest downtowns—Toronto (+16.1%) and Vancouver (+7.4%)—also outpaced the growth rates of their CMAs (+4.6% in Toronto and +7.3% in Vancouver).

The recent acceleration of population growth in downtowns can be explained by various factors. On the one hand, administrations in several cities have adopted plans to increase the density and housing supply of downtowns. As well, the desire to live in central neighbourhoods remains strong, since many people want to minimize their commute times by living closer to work and to live in a dynamic area of their city that offers many nearby services and sources of entertainment.

Since the onset of the pandemic, the allure of downtown living may have lost some of its sheen with more people working from home and fewer opportunities to indulge in cultural or entertainment activities. Demographic estimates produced quarterly and annually by Statistics Canada will track whether population growth trends will shift over the coming years.

Urban spread continues in Canada's largest metropolitan areas

Chart 1 
In Toronto, Montréal and Vancouver, downtowns and distant suburbs growing at the fastest pace, while the population in intermediate suburbs of Calgary, Edmonton and Ottawa is growing fast

The populations of downtowns, urban fringes and near, intermediate and distant suburbs grew in most large urban centres from 2016 to 2021, but their pace of growth varied considerably.

For example, in Canada's three largest urban centres, the distant suburbs (30 minutes or more from downtown) grew at a faster pace than the urban fringe and suburbs closer to downtown. The population increases among the distant suburbs of Toronto (+9.4%), Montréal (+7.0%) and Vancouver (+9.5%) all surpassed those of their CMA overall.

In the CMA of Vancouver, the distant suburbs grew at the fastest pace from 2016 to 2021, while in Toronto and Montréal, the pace of growth in distant suburbs was surpassed only by that of their downtowns. In Toronto, close to three-quarters of the total population growth in the CMA stemmed from distant suburbs.

Urban spread was also occurring in the intermediate suburbs (20 to 30 minutes from downtown) in Edmonton (+23.4%), Calgary (+23.3%) and Ottawa (+21.4%). The growth in these intermediate suburbs largely surpassed that of their respective downtowns, urban fringes and near suburbs.

The sustained population growth in the intermediate and distant suburbs may be attributable to various factors, including limited space to build new housing close to downtown, the desire of some families to have a larger home or property, the lower cost of housing on the outskirts or wanting to be closer to nature.

Urban spread is also occurring in Canada's mid-sized CMAs, but unlike in the six largest urban centres, it is the near suburbs, located within a 10 to 20 minute drive from downtown, where population is growing at the fastest pace.

In these smaller metropolitan areas, more land is often still available for development close to the downtown.

In some suburbs, population growth may have been bolstered by the greater possibility of working from home during the pandemic. A recent study showed that approximately 40% of the jobs in Canada could feasibly be done at home. Indeed, in April 2020, during the first wave of the pandemic, about 40% of employees worked most of their hours from home, up from 4% in 2016. At the time of the census in May 2021, 5.1 million Canadians worked at least half of their usual hours from home.

Higher housing prices may also be a factor, with new home prices up 11.3% year over year nationally in May 2021, the largest increase since November 2006, and new home prices were 17.8% higher compared with 2016. Higher housing prices may have tempted Canadians to move to more distant suburbs, where larger houses could be available at a lower cost than closer to downtown.

In 2020 and 2021, the population of most of Canada's downtowns grew slower or declined in the wake of the pandemic

Since the onset of the pandemic in the spring of 2020, far fewer Canadians are commuting to work downtown as many businesses and government agencies that could do so shifted from an office setting to working virtually at home.

However, the much lower levels of commuter traffic downtown have not resulted in population declines of the same magnitude according to our most recent preliminary demographic estimates.

For example, from July 1, 2020 to the end of June 2021, the downtown population of Toronto (+0.4%) continued to grow, albeit at a much slower pace compared with the pace of growth seen from 2016 to 2021 overall (+3.2% annually). This may be related to housing supply, especially condominiums, where new units continued to come onto the market even after the onset of the pandemic. Some buyers who bought their home prior to the pandemic may only have taken possession in 2020 or 2021.

From July 1, 2020, to the end of June 2021, the pace of growth slowed in the vast majority of downtowns (38 of 42) compared with the years leading up to the pandemic (2016 to 2019). Moreover, the population declined in 30 of 42 downtowns from July 1, 2020 to the end of June 2021, albeit mostly by a slight margin.

For example, with the onset of the pandemic, the population declined in the downtowns of Canada's second and third largest urban centres. There were fewer people living in the downtowns of Montréal (-3.1%) and Vancouver (-2.9%) on July 1, 2021, compared with the same day a year earlier. This contrasts with the census period as a whole, with the downtown population of Montréal growing on average by 4.8% a year from 2016 to 2021, while in Vancouver, the downtown population grew by 1.5% a year on average.

Population growth also slowed in the suburbs in 2020 and 2021, one year into the pandemic

Preliminary demographic estimates show that the pace of population growth in the suburbs has also slowed since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, albeit to a lesser extent than in downtowns.

For example, from July 1, 2020 to the end of June 2021, the population of the distant suburbs in the CMAs of Toronto (+1.8%) and Montréal (+0.7%) grew at a slightly slower pace compared with the annual averages from 2016 to 2021 (+1.9% for Toronto; +1.4% for Montréal).

There could be several reasons why the pandemic has had less of an impact on population growth in suburbs than in the downtowns. Some people who have worked at home since the start of the pandemic may have chosen to move out of the downtown to the suburbs in search of more space or a more affordable home.

Given that new arrivals to Canada are more likely to settle in the core of urban centres, border restrictions to slow the spread of COVID-19 may have had less impact on population growth in the distant suburbs but contributed more to slower growth downtown.

The downtowns of Vancouver and Toronto are by far the most densely populated in Canada

Chart 2 
Downtowns in the largest urban centres also have the highest population densities

Approximately 3.5% of Canadians (1,281,474) were living in the downtowns of one of the 41 CMAs across the country in the spring of 2021.

The most populated downtowns were Toronto (275,931 people), Vancouver (121,932 people), Montréal (109,509 people), Ottawa (67,169 people) and Edmonton (55,387 people).

Since downtowns are often characterized by high-rise apartment buildings, these areas have among the highest population densities in the country.

The population density of all CMA downtowns combined totalled 5,385 people per square kilometre in 2021. Vancouver (18,837 inhabitants per square kilometre) had the most densely populated downtown, followed by Toronto (16,608 inhabitants per square kilometre).

By comparison, there were 28,668 people per square kilometre in Manhattan in 2020 (9.5 MB, in PDF format only), the densest borough in New York.

The vastness of Canada makes our overall population density among the lowest in the world, with four inhabitants per square kilometre. For the 41 CMAs in Canada combined, there are 226 people per square kilometre.

As you move further away from downtown, areas become less densely populated

Chart 3 
Population density increases sharply the closer you are to downtown

Typically, neighbourhoods located further from downtown tend to be less densely populated.

Census results show that the distant suburbs (areas located 30 minutes or more from downtown by car) of Toronto and Vancouver had a population density of just under 500 people per square kilometre in May 2021. In Montréal, that figure was just over 300 people per square kilometre.

That density was even lower in Calgary, Edmonton and Ottawa, where there were fewer than 50 inhabitants per square kilometre in distant suburbs. This is mostly explained by the fact that, unlike Canada's three largest metropolitan areas, more land is still available for development.

Looking ahead: A deeper dive into the makeup of cities

The 2021 Census data to be released in the coming months will provide a better understanding of the diverse neighbourhoods of Canada's largest urban centres. Are there more seniors or young adults living downtown? Where are families with children concentrated? Which parts of town do single Canadians call home?

Data from the upcoming census releases will shed light on these questions and many, many more.

Contact information

For more information, or to enquire about the concepts, methods or data quality of this release, contact us (toll-free 1-800-263-1136; 514-283-8300; infostats@statcan.gc.ca) or Media Relations (statcan.mediahotline-ligneinfomedias.statcan@statcan.gc.ca).