Experimental indexes of economic activity in the provinces and territories, October 2021
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Released: 2022-02-15
According to a principal components analysis (PCA)-based experimental activity index, the three-month moving average of the growth in provincial and territorial economic activity was positive for 8 of the 10 jurisdictions reported in October 2021. The PCA-based index shows average growth in economic activity was largest in Saskatchewan and Prince Edward Island. It was negative for Northwest Territories and Manitoba.
Average growth in economic activity accelerated in 6 out of 10 jurisdictions from September to October, compared with 3 out of 10 from August to September. The change in average growth remained negative in Nova Scotia, Quebec, Ontario, and Alberta.
The accelerating positive growth in economic activity in many jurisdictions is consistent with monthly gross domestic product and with retail trade sales data. For monthly gross domestic product at the national level, the three-month moving average of growth increased from 0.4% in September to 0.6% in October. For retail trade, the three-month moving average grew from 0.4% in September to 1.0% in October, and growth was positive and accelerating in all provinces and territories. Employment based on the Labour Force Survey also grew in most jurisdictions but at a decelerating rate, indicating that the acceleration in overall economic activity was not driven by employment.
Note to readers
The experimental indexes were developed to address the need for a comprehensive measure of economic activity at the subnational level in advance of the annual estimates of gross domestic product for the provinces and territories.
Two statistical techniques, the principal component analysis (PCA) and the application of the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), are used to combine a range of economic indicators from a number of areas (e.g., the labour market, merchandise trade, manufacturing production, and wholesale and retail trade) into composite indicators.
Both PCA- and LASSO-based indexes are available in Table 36-10-0633-01.
Contact information
For more information, contact us (toll-free 1-800-263-1136; 514-283-8300; infostats@statcan.gc.ca).
To enquire about the concepts, methods or data quality of this release, contact Ryan Macdonald (statcan.mediahotline-ligneinfomedias.statcan@statcan.gc.ca), Economic Analysis Division.
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