Section 2 Evolution of the population by mother tongue and first official language spoken

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• 2.1 Change in the population by mother tongue
• 2.2 Evolution of the population by first official language spoken
• 2.3 Geographic distribution of the population with French as first official language spoken
• 2.4 Relative proportion within municipalities of residence and geographic concentration index

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2.1 Change in the population by mother tongue

From 1951 and 1996, the total population of Saskatchewan grew by 17%. While the province's population was 831,725 persons in 1951, it was 976,615 in 1996 (see Table 2.1). Since then, the total population of the province has declined from one census to the next, totalling 953,845 Saskatchewanians in 2006. When examined on the basis of mother tongue, these statistics show an increase between 1951 and 1996 that is entirely attributable to the English-mother-tongue population, which went from 515,875 to 823,745. The French-mother-tongue and "other"-mother-tongue populations steadily declined from 1951 through to 2006, going from 36,815 and 279,040, respectively, in 1951 to 16,790 and 121,675 in 2006. These populations therefore decreased by more than half in 55 years. However, since 1996, the English-mother-tongue population has also declined, going from 823,745 to 815,380 in 2006.

Table 2.1 Population by mother tongue, Saskatchewan, 1951 to 2006

Table 2.2 shows the average annual growth rate for the population of each mother tongue group since 1951. For the French-mother-tongue group, the average annual growth rate has been negative since 1951. Although from 1951 to 1961 the rate was practically nil, it has since ranged between -1.21% and -2.11%. The finding is similar for the "other" mother-tongue group, whose population declined fairly constantly from 1951 to 2001, with an average rate of variation between -1.01% and -2.16%. However, between 2001 and 2006, the "other"-mother-tongue group's numbers showed almost no change. For its part, the English-mother-tongue group experienced its strongest growth between 1951 and 1961 with a growth rate exceeding 2%. Between 1961 and 1991, the rate hovered around 1% and since 1996, it has been negative but very close to a nil value.

Table 2.2 Yearly average population growth rate by mother tongue, Saskatchewan, 1951 to 2006

The French-mother-tongue population outside Quebec resides mainly in two of its bordering provinces. The provinces of Ontario and New Brunswick alone accounted for 76% of all Francophones living outside Quebec in 2006. That same year, Saskatchewan Francophones accounted for 1.7% of the French-mother-tongue population outside Quebec. This is a decrease compared to 1951, when the proportion was 5.1% (see Table 2.3). In Saskatchewan, Franco-Saskatchewanians account for 1.8% of the province's population. For the English-mother-tongue and "other"-mother-tongue populations, the proportions are 85.5% and 12.8%, respectively (see Table 2.1).

Table 2.3 Number and proportion of Francophones in Saskatchewan within the Francophone population outside Quebec, 1951 to 2006

2.2 Evolution of the population by first official language spoken

As described in Section 1, the criterion of the first official language spoken (FOLS) offers a more inclusive definition of the Francophone population: it allows persons with mother tongues other than English or French to be included in the Anglophone or Francophone population. Most persons with "other" mother tongues usually fall into the majority FOLS group. As with the English-speaking group, the population with French as first official language spoken is usually larger than the French-mother-tongue population in a province such as Ontario, for example, where a large proportion of persons have a mother tongue other than French or English. In other cases, such as New Brunswick, the use of the FOLS criterion yields practically the same result as the mother tongue criterion, since persons with "other" mother tongues in that province comprise only 2.6% of the population. In Saskatchewan, use of the FOLS criterion only slightly affects the number of the Francophone population, despite a strong allophone presence. The relative share of the Francophone minority (according to the first official language spoken criterion) within the overall population of Saskatchewan is 1.6% (14,850 persons) (see Table 2.4) while that of the French-mother-tongue population is 1.8% (16,790 persons) (after equal allocation of multiple responses). As to the Anglophone population, its relative share is 86% according to the mother tongue criterion and 98% according to the FOLS criterion, which demonstrates the strong historical tendency for allophones to adopt English.

Table 2.4 Population by first official language spoken, Saskatchewan, 1971 to 2006

Looking at the results shown in Chart 2.1, it appears that since 1981, the size of the French-mother-tongue population has been larger than the one of the Francophone minority (according to the first official language spoken criterion). When the French-mother-tongue population is equal to the French FOLS population, this means that persons with mother tongues other than English or French are not integrating linguistically to the advantage of the minority language. When the French-mother-tongue population is larger than the French FOLS population, this means that not only are "other"-mother-tongue persons not being integrated, but some of them whose mother tongue is French know English but no longer know French well enough to conduct a conversation in it. For this reason, they are included in the English FOLS group.

Between 1971 and 2006, the difference between the French-mother-tongue population and the French FOLS population varied slightly. While in 1971 the gap was 755 persons, it was more than 2,600 persons in 1981. Since 1991, the gap has been in the range of 2,000 persons. Also, since 1981, the French-mother-tongue population has exceeded the French FOLS population. However, both these sub-populations have decreased in number.

Chart 2.1 Number of persons with French as mother tongue and as first official language spoken, Saskatchewan, 1951 to 2006

2.3 Geographic distribution of the population with French as first official language spoken

The proportion of the Francophone minority within the Saskatchewan population is 1.6%. Nearly 60% of Saskatchewan's Francophones reside in three census divisions (CDs): No. 6 (19% or 2,853 persons), No. 11 (22% or 3,325 persons) and No. 15 (18% or 2,653 persons). Census divison No. 6 includes the Regina census metropolitan area (CMA), while CD No. 11 includes 20 of the 24 census subdivisions in the large Saskatoon CMA. Census division No. 15 includes the census subdivisions of Prince Albert and St. Louis (see Appendix A). On their own, the census subdivisions of Regina and Saskatoon account for respectively 17% and 19% of Saskatchewan Francophones.

2.4 Relative proportion within municipalities of residence and geographic concentration index

In this portrait of Saskatchewan Francophones, we do not merely present aggregate information on the province's Francophones as a whole. Since Francophones are not distributed evenly among the various geographic entities, and since their proportion varies from one census division (CD) or census subdivision (CSD) to another within the regions, it is quite useful to present statistics that take into account their relative share within their municipality of residence. In other words, the proportion of Francophones within their municipality has more influence on their perceptions and their linguistic practices than does their proportion within a larger region.

We therefore examined the distribution of Francophones according to the relative weight of their language group within their municipality of residence (see Table 2.5). This revealed that the majority (82%) of Saskatchewan Francophones live in municipalities where they constitute less than 10% of the population. Moreover, 10% of Saskatchewan Francophones live in a municipality where their relative weight is between 10% and 29%, and 8% live in a municipality where they constitute between 30 and 49% of the population. In the province as a whole, less than one percent of Francophones live in municipalities in which they constitute the majority.¹

Table 2.5 Number and proportion of Francophones by their relative weight within the municipality of residence, Saskatchewan, 2006

Table A-1 in appendix A and the geographical maps preceding it show the relative weight of the Francophone population within each of the census divisions and selected census subdivisions included in them in 2006.

Information on the proportion of Francophones within their municipality of residence is quite useful in analysing Francophones' perceptions and language behaviours. However, the municipalities vary in size, and in the case of urban agglomerations, for example, this information does not reveal whether Francophones are spread throughout the municipality or are concentrated in certain specific areas.

As already noted, Francophones live in specific regions, within which their proportion within municipalities is variable. It is also useful to distinguish municipalities where Francophones are concentrated in a specific part of the geographic area from those where they do not exhibit any particular concentration. For this purpose, the distribution of Francophones throughout the geographic area is presented here using a concentration index,² which casts new light on the minority/majority ratio. Table 2.6 shows the usefulness of such a concept.

Such information is highly useful in that the concentration of a language group within a given area, like its relative weight, will influence the potential language practices of its members.

Table 2.6 Distribution of Francophones according to the concentration index within their municipality of residence, Saskatchewan, 2006

Table 2.6 shows that while a large majority (79%) of Franco-Saskatchewanians are weakly concentrated within their municipality of residence, 15% of them show an average level of concentration and 6% a strong one.

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Notes

1. All the Francophones who live in a municipality where they constitute between 50% and 69% reside in the same census subdivision, Zenon Park, which is part of census division No. 14.
2. Refer to Appendix D for a description of concentration index and the concept of dissemination area.