Demand

The calculation for tourism demand in the PTTSA begins with the survey data in the TSRC and the ITS. The first step is to split the existing product detail provided in the surveys into the detail used in the supply and use tables in order to allow appropriate demand/supply reconciliation. For some products, the existing survey data does provide appropriate detail. For example, survey information for the transportation products is sufficient to split these products into their IO counterparts. For accommodation, information on nights spent in different types of accommodation is available from the survey and is used to split the products into the IO classifications. Personal expenditure data from the income and expenditure accounts are used to split the remaining products into the IO framework.

Once tourism demand is calculated using the same products as supply, supply shares are used to allocate the demand into sub-industries. As mentioned above, if 50% of meals is supplied by a sub-industry, this sub-industry is also allocated 50% of demand. After the demand data are distributed across industries, demand/supply ratios are calculated for each industry. These ratios are simply the total tourism demand of an industry divided by its total tourism supply. This ratio indicates what portion of an industry’s output is attributed to tourism activity. Thus, if an industry demand/supply ratio equals 40%, this share of the industry’s total output comes from tourism. These demand/supply ratios are later used to calculate tourism GDP and employment.

To increase the analytical usefulness of the data, demand is split into domestic demand and non-resident demand (international and interprovincial demand, or exports) using information from the TSRC and ITS. Data are also calculated for international and interprovincial imports. The availability of both export and import data allows for the calculation of the tourism trade balance.

Several additions are made to the survey data to provide a more complete estimate of tourism demand (see Table 1). The first of these additions is to include the fares paid on international trips made using Canadian carriers (Canadian fares of international trips). The fares paid by Canadian travellers are included in either domestic demand or interprovincial demand, depending on their province or territory of residence, port of departure and port of re-entry. Fares paid by international travellers to Canada are included in international demand.

An additional calculation is required to include domestic and interprovincial tourism spending of residents of the three Canadian territories who are excluded from the TSRC. Supply (revenue) data are available for all the tourism products in the territorial supply and use tables. International demand is derived from the ITS and interprovincial demand (i.e., spending by residents of the ten provinces who visit the territories) is derived from the TSRC. Domestic and interprovincial demand for the territories is calculated using personal expenditures and trade data from the supply and use tables.

The domestic demand in the territories is calculated differently from tourism demand in the provinces. Since the Travel Survey of Residents of Canada (TSRC) is not administered to residents of the territories, a different data source is needed to measure tourism demand within each territory. The methodology used is based on data from supply and use tables.

The first step is to identify the commodities associated with tourism demand. Next, the value of the final consumption expenditures for these commodities are calculated for each PTSA expenditure category. The expenditures associated with the following categories have been excluded from the totals so that only the expenditures by the residents of the territory remain.
· Expenditure by Canadians abroad (PEC15110)
· Expenditure by Canadians in other provinces or territories (PEC15120)
· Expenditure by non-residents in Canada (PEC15210)
· Expenditure by Canadians residing in other provinces or territories (PEC15220)

Similarly, the interprovincial tourism demand of residents of the territories is calculated differently from the interprovincial tourism demand of residents of the provinces. Since the TSRC is not administered to residents of the territories, a different methodology had to be developed to measure the interprovincial tourism demand of residents of the territories.

Calculating this demand begins with data from the supply and use tables. The first step is to identify the commodities associated with tourism demand. Next, the value of the expenditures of the residents of a territory in the other provinces or territories are calculated for each PTSA expenditure category. This is done using the commodities consumed in the Expenditure by Canadians in other provinces or territories (PEC15120) category.
The third step is to determine the province or territory visited. Data on interprovincial trade flows from the supply and use tables are used for this. The provincial distribution of trade flows is derived for each expenditure category. This distribution is based solely on the services under each category. This constraint was necessary because data on interprovincial trade flows in the supply and use tables include commodity re-exports. Since services are generally consumed on site, they are a better indicator of the province or territory visited.

Pre-trip expenses or spending made by a traveller before a trip but for the sole purpose of travelling is another important addition made. These expenses include motor homes, pleasure boats, travel and tent trailers, luggage and travel sets, tents and camping equipment and sleeping bags.

A special calculation is made in the PTTSA for travel services which are not specifically identifiable in the travel surveys. This entails removing a fraction of the spending on various tourism products (e.g., air fares and hotel bills) and reallocating it to spending on services of travel agents. Essentially the demand for travel services is equated to the supply, as this product is used almost exclusively by tourists. The supply is just the commissions on travel arrangements and tour packages, which in the IO framework serve as the measure of output of the travel arrangements industry.

A final adjustment to the data arises from the demand/supply reconciliation. As products are reconciled between demand and supply, the tourism product ratio for a given product is examined. This ratio is at times considered too high or too low. This is particularly true for products for which little spending occurred. These issues were treated on a case-by-case basis. For example, suppose that after adding all relevant information for passenger air transport (information from the two travel surveys and estimates from the territories), total passenger air transport demand is 70% of total supply. The non-tourism exclusions to air travel demand could not account for this 30% difference. Therefore, the 70% total is adjusted upward to reflect a more realistic tourism product ratio for passenger air transport. In some cases, tourism demand can exceed supply for a given product. The supply and demand estimates are then examined to see which is of higher statistical quality and an adjustment is made based on this information.