Semiparametric quantile regression imputation for a complex survey with application to the Conservation Effects Assessment Project
Section 3. Asymptotic distributions and variance estimation
We derive an asymptotic normal distribution for the QRI
estimator
defined in (2.16), although the estimator
defined in (2.19), with a finite number of
imputations is necessary in practice. This
approach of developing theory under an assumption of an infinite number of
imputed values has been used previously. See, for example, Clayton,
Spiegelhalter, Dunn and Pickles (1998) and Robins and Wang (2000). The
simulations in Section 5 demonstrate that the asymptotic normal
distribution derived for
is a reasonable approximation for the
distribution of the estimator constructed with finite
We outline the main concepts underlying the
proofs of lemma 1, lemma 2, and Theorem 1, deferring details to
Section B of the online supplement https://github.com/emilyjb/Semiparametric-QRI-Supplement/blob/master/SupplementToQRI.pdf,
(Berg and Yu, 2016).
The
derivation of the asymptotic distribution of
proceeds in three main steps. Lemma 1
gives the asymptotic distribution of the estimators of the quantile regression
coefficients. Lemma 2 presents the asymptotic distribution of the
estimating equation (2.17). These two lemmas are analogous to lemma 1 and
lemma 2 of Chen and Yu (2016). Theorem 1 then provides the asymptotic
distribution of
3.1 Asymptotic normality of
We
consider a sequence of samples and finite populations indexed by
where the sample size
as
To define the regularity conditions, we
introduce the notation
to represent an element of the sequence of
finite populations with size
and use the notation “
” to indicate that the
reference distribution is the distribution based on repeated sampling
conditional on the finite population of size
. For example,
and
respectively, denote the conditional
expectation and variance of the outcome
with respect to the randomization distribution
generated from repeated sampling from
Similarly,
a.s., means that
converges in distribution to
almost surely with respect to the process of
repeated sampling from the sequence of finite populations as
The convergence is with probability 1 because
is a random realization from the
superpopulation model (2.1).
The
regularity conditions on the sample design and tuning parameters for the
estimator of the B-spline model are as follows:
- Any variable
such that
where
satisfies,
- where
and
is the
conditional variance of the Horvitz-Thompson mean,
given
-
and
where
is the expected
sample size.
- There exist
constants
and
such that
and
- The value
determining the number of interior knots
-
for
Condition
3 is also used in Fuller (2009a). Condition 3 holds for simple random sampling,
where
and for Poisson sampling, where
Fuller (2009a) explains that condition 3 holds
for many stratified designs and that the designer has the control to ensure
condition 3.
Under
assumptions 4-5, Barrow and Smith (1978) show that a
exists that satisfies,
where
is the best
approximation for
and
is a bias of the B-spline approximation for
the true quantile function, satisfying,
For details of the form of the bias term, see
Chen and Yu (2016) and Yoshida (2013). The property (3.3) is used extensively
in the derivation of lemma 1.
The
proofs of both lemma 1 and lemma 2 use a result given in
Theorem 1.3.6 of Fuller (2009b). Because of the importance of this theorem
to the results of this section, we state this theorem as Fact 1:
Fact 1. (Theorem 1.3.6 of Fuller (2009b)): Suppose
Then,
Note
that
in Fact 1 is a fixed limit and not a
design variance because the design variance is a random function of the finite
population in this framework. The condition
holds for a broad class of designs, such as
those discussed in Isaki and Fuller (1982).
Lemma 1. Under assumptions 1-5 and for fixed
and
and
where
and
is the pdf of
given
evaluated at
The
main idea of the proof of lemma 1 is to show that the estimator of the
quantile regression coefficient has a Bahadur representation given in corollary 1
below:
Corollary 1: By the proof of lemma 1, the estimator of the quantile
regression coefficient has the following Bahadur representation:
The derivation of the Bahadur representation follows the basic approach of
Koenker (2005) and Yoshida (2013). To account for the complex sample design,
condition (3.2) is used to bound sums of covariances induced by nontrivial
second order inclusion probabilities. For independent random variables from an
infinite population (as in Chen and Yu (2016), Yoshida (2013) and Koenker (2005)),
the corresponding covariances are zero. Given the Bahadur representation (3.8),
lemma 1 follows from an application of the regularity condition in (3.1)
and Fact 1 to the elements of the Horvitz-Thompson mean in (3.8). The
in
essentially plays the role of
in Fact 1 and is the limit of the design
variance of the Horvitz-Thompson mean. The second term in
is the asymptotic variance of the design-expectation
of the Horvitz-Thompson mean and plays the role of
in Fact 1.
Lemma 2 and Theorem 1 require additional regularity
conditions about the estimating equation. The regularity conditions on the
estimation are similar to those in Chen and Yu (2016) and are therefore
deferred to Section A of the online supplement https://github.com/emilyjb/Semiparametric-QRI-Supplement/blob/master/SupplementToQRI.pdf,
(Berg and Yu, 2016).
Lemma 2. Under the assumptions of
lemma 1 and the regularity conditions provided in Section A of the
online supplement https://github.com/emilyjb/Semiparametric-QRI-Supplement/blob/master/SupplementToQRI.pdf,
(Berg and Yu, 2016),
where
and
is the partial derivative of
with respect to
evaluated at
The
proof of lemma 2 centers on the Taylor expansion given by
where
is between
and
and
denotes the vector of partial derivatives of
the elements of
with respect to
evaluated at
By arguments similar to those of Chen and Yu
(2016),
Lemma 2 then follows from the linear
approximation for
in lemma 1.
Theorem 1. Under the assumptions of lemmas 1 and 2, the QRI estimator
defined in (2.16), constructed with
satisfies,
where
and
By
Pakes and Pollard (1989), Theorem 1 is satisfied if the following hold:
-
- For
where
is arbitrarily small. Because of the complex
sample design, the proof that these conditions hold proceeds in two steps,
considering first the deviation
and then the deviation
The result then follows from the triangle
inequality.
3.2 Variance estimation
We
estimate the variance of
using the linearization method (Fuller, 2009b,
page 64). We use the asymptotic covariance matrix in (3.12) to estimate the
variance of
the estimator of
defined in (2.19), constructed with a finite
number of imputed values. To estimate
a design-consistent variance estimator is
applied to an estimator of the mean of an estimator of
defined in (3.10). The estimator of
is obtained by replacing
and
with estimators
and
respectively.
The
estimator of variance is defined,
where
and
An estimator of
is the inverse of an estimator of the
derivative of the quantile function and is defined by
where the bandwidth
is given by
with
and
respectively, the pdf and cdf of a standard
normal distribution. See Wei, Ma and Carroll (2012) and Koenker (2005) for
discussions of (3.15) and (3.16), respectively.