Population Projections for Canada (2024 to 2074), Provinces and Territories (2024 to 2049): Technical Report on Methodology and Assumptions
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1. Introduction
This document describes the projection assumptions and the various scenarios proposed in the 2025 edition of Statistics Canada’s population projections, for the period 2024–2049. While Statistics Canada used to publish a new series of projections every 5 years, only 6 months separate this edition from the previous one published in June 2024. Frequent updates are relevant to reflect the fast changes that Canadian demography is experiencing since the end of the pandemic, including recent changes in the targets of admissions of immigrants and non-permanent residents. In the future, Statistics Canada aims to produce new editions of population projections on an annual basis. However, Statistics Canada regularly produces custom projections for external clients willing to integrate new projection scenarios or sensitivity analyses.
In the building of the projection assumptions, different methods are used to envision plausible developments in the short and long term. Time series forecast methods are used to extrapolate current trends in the short term when such trends appear to exist. Long-term targets are based on reflections involving experts, reflections that can encompass outcomes diverging from past trends. In this edition, the long-term targets used to build trajectories for each of the components of demographic growth at the national level remain unchanged compared to the previous edition (Statistics Canada, 2024a).Note What has changed are the targets in each province and territory and the way they are reached, determined based on both the national-level target and recent trends in each region. While it is important to avoid being overly influenced by recent events when thinking about the future and the pitfalls of recency bias, this update is essential because many users require projections for a relatively short time horizon of only a few years in the future.
For brevity, this report emphasizes the description of changes since the previous edition. Users are asked to consult the technical report of the previous edition for more detailed descriptions of the long-term assumptions supporting these projections.
These population projections by age and gender are modelled using the results of population projections by age and sex and by applying ratios calculated based on 2021 Census data. Lastly, the projection assumptions were completed on December 4 2024. Any events that occurred between that date and the publication date were not considered in their development.
The results of “Population Projections for Canada (2024 to 2074), Provinces and Territories (2024 to 2049)” are available in two tables in the Common Output Data Repository: 17-10-0057-01 (population counts) and 17-10-0058-01 (components of population growth). They can also be accessed in an interactive data visualization tool (Statistics Canada Catalogue no. 71-607-X-2022015).
End of text box2. Caveat
The population projections produced by Statistics Canada’s Centre for Demography should in no way be interpreted as predictions of what the future holds. Rather, they should be understood as an exercise of what the Canadian population could look like in the coming years based on certain scenarios of evolution that seemed plausible when these projections were completed. For this reason, Statistics Canada always publishes several scenarios and formulates many explicit assumptions about the main components of population growth. Users are therefore asked to consider more than one scenario of evolution when using the projection results.
In addition, the accuracy of the projections depends on many different factors. Some events, such as economic crises, wars, pandemics or natural disasters, are difficult—and even impossible—to predict and may affect the growth and composition of the Canadian population. For this reason, Statistics Canada makes sure to revise its population projections regularly, so that the context in which they are developed is taken into account.
3. Assumptions and choice of scenarios
The purpose of having multiple projection scenarios is to reflect the uncertainty associated with the future. The projection scenarios are constructed by combining a number of assumptions about the future evolution of each component of population growth.
Six scenarios (M1, M2, M3, M4, M5 and M6) are designed to illustrate a medium level of increase, essentially reflecting a continuation of current trends in the short term and a trajectory considered plausible in the long term. Each of these scenarios includes a distinct interprovincial migration assumption, to reflect the volatility of this component.
The low-growth (LG) and high-growth (HG) scenarios include assumptions that are consistent with either lower or higher population growth than in the medium-growth scenarios at the national level. For example, assumptions that entail high fertility, low mortality, high immigration, low emigration and high numbers of non-permanent residents are the foundation of the high-growth scenario.
The fast-aging (FA) and slow-aging (SA) scenarios include assumptions that are consistent with either faster or slower population aging than in the medium-growth scenarios. For example, assumptions that entail high fertility, high mortality, high immigration and high numbers of non-permanent residents are the foundation of the slow-aging scenario.
The 10 scenarios are intended to provide a plausible and sufficiently broad range of projected numbers to take account of the uncertainties inherent in any projection exercise. Note that in the low-growth (LG), high-growth (HG), slow-aging (SA) and fast-aging (FA) scenarios, the interprovincial migration assumption is the same as the one used in the M1 medium-growth scenario. The projection assumptions and scenarios are summarized in Tables 3.1 and 3.2.
| Scenario | Fertility | Mortality | Immigration | Emigration and returning emigration | Non-permanent residents | Internal migration |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Notes: LG (low growth), HG (high growth), SA (slow aging) and FA (fast aging).
Source: Statistics Canada, Centre for Demography. |
||||||
| LG | Low | High | Low | High | Low | Recent trends (2021/2022 to 2023/2024) transitioning linearly in 10 years to the average of the period 1991/1992 to 2023/2024 |
| M1 | Medium | Medium | Medium | Medium | Medium | |
| M2 | Medium | Medium | Medium | Medium | Medium | 1995/1996 to 2010/2011 |
| M3 | Medium | Medium | Medium | Medium | Medium | 2003/2004 to 2008/2009 |
| M4 | Medium | Medium | Medium | Medium | Medium | 2009/2010 to 2016/2017 |
| M5 | Medium | Medium | Medium | Medium | Medium | 2014/2015 to 2016/2017 |
| M6 | Medium | Medium | Medium | Medium | Medium | 2021/2022 to 2023/2024 |
| HG | High | Low | High | Low | High | Recent trends (2021/2022 to 2023/2024) transitioning linearly in 10 years to the average of the period 1991/1992 to 2023/2024 |
| SA | High | High | High | Medium | High | |
| FA | Low | Low | Low | Medium | Low | |
| Component / Temporal horizon | Scenario | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low growth | Medium growth | High growth | Slow aging | Fast aging | ||||||
| LG | M1 | M2 | M3 | M4 | M5 | M6 | HG | SA | FA | |
| Note: The medium growth scenarios M2, M3, M4, M5 and M6 were created in order to reflect distinct interprovincial migration assumptions in comparison with the medium growth scenario M1. For more details, see the section on internal migration in Population Projections for Canada (2024 to 2074), Provinces and Territories (2024 to 2049): Technical Report on Methodology and Assumptions (Statistics Canada catalogue number 91-620).
Source: Statistics Canada, Centre for Demography. |
||||||||||
| Fertility (period total fertility rate) | number of children per woman | |||||||||
| Permanent residents | ||||||||||
| 2028/2029 | 1.13 | 1.24 | 1.24 | 1.24 | 1.24 | 1.24 | 1.24 | 1.36 | 1.36 | 1.13 |
| 2048/2049 | 1.18 | 1.41 | 1.41 | 1.41 | 1.41 | 1.41 | 1.41 | 1.66 | 1.66 | 1.18 |
| 2073/2074 | 1.18 | 1.41 | 1.41 | 1.41 | 1.41 | 1.41 | 1.41 | 1.66 | 1.66 | 1.18 |
| Non-permanent residents | ||||||||||
| All years | 1.07 | 1.07 | 1.07 | 1.07 | 1.07 | 1.07 | 1.07 | 1.07 | 1.07 | 1.07 |
| Immigration | rate per thousand | |||||||||
| 2028/2029 | 7.6 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 10.2 | 10.2 | 7.6 |
| 2048/2049 | 7.0 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 7.0 |
| 2073/2074 | 7.0 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 7.0 |
| Life expectancy at birth | years | |||||||||
| Males | ||||||||||
| 2028/2029 | 80.5 | 80.9 | 80.9 | 80.9 | 80.9 | 80.9 | 80.9 | 81.2 | 80.5 | 81.2 |
| 2048/2049 | 83.7 | 84.4 | 84.4 | 84.4 | 84.4 | 84.4 | 84.4 | 85.1 | 83.7 | 85.1 |
| 2073/2074 | 86.6 | 87.4 | 87.4 | 87.4 | 87.4 | 87.4 | 87.4 | 88.2 | 86.6 | 88.2 |
| Females | ||||||||||
| 2028/2029 | 84.7 | 85.0 | 85.0 | 85.0 | 85.0 | 85.0 | 85.0 | 85.3 | 84.7 | 85.3 |
| 2048/2049 | 87.2 | 87.9 | 87.9 | 87.9 | 87.9 | 87.9 | 87.9 | 88.5 | 87.2 | 88.5 |
| 2073/2074 | 89.7 | 90.4 | 90.4 | 90.4 | 90.4 | 90.4 | 90.4 | 91.1 | 89.7 | 91.1 |
| Proportion of non-permanent residents | percent | |||||||||
| 2029 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 4.7 |
| 2049 | 3.2 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 3.2 |
| 2074 | 3.2 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 3.2 |
| Emigration | gross migraproduction rate per thousand | |||||||||
| 2028/2029 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| 2048/2049 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
| 2073/2074 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
| Return emigration | gross migraproduction rate per thousand | |||||||||
| 2028/2029 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| 2048/2049 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| 2073/2074 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Interprovincial migration | ||||||||||
| Reference period | Recent trends (2021/2022 to 2023/2024) transitioning linearly in 10 years to the average of the period 1991/1992 to 2023/2024 | 1995/1996 to 2010/2011 | 2003/2004 to 2008/2009 | 2009/2010 to 2016/2017 | 2014/2015 to 2016/2017 | 2021/2022 to 2023/2024 | Recent trends (2021/2022 to 2023/2024) transitioning linearly in 10 years to the average of the period 1991/1992 to 2023/2024 | |||
4. Projection of fertility
4.1 Background
In Canada, the period total fertility rateNote (PTFR) reached a new record-low value of 1.26 children per woman in 2023 (Statistics Canada, 2024b). Record-low values were also recorded in 10 of the 13 provinces and territories. The PTFR has been generally declining in Canada since 2008, when it reached 1.70 (Provencher & Galbraith, 2023; Teng & Margolis, 2024). Sargent (2024) assesses trends in the PTFR in light of other phenomena such as declining marriage rates and the rise in the age at marriage and unmarried partnerships. The mean age of women at childbirth has also risen over recent decades, from 26.7 years in 1977 to 31.7 years in 2023 (Statistics Canada, 2024c).
As in many other countries, the PTFR followed a volatile pattern between 2020 and 2022. The period was initially marked by a sharp decline in fertility, followed by a short rebound, and finally another decline in 2022, suggesting potential impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on fertility behaviours (Provencher & Galbraith 2023). Winkler-Dworak et al. (2024) found three factors associated with this pattern in high-income countries: rising inflation, better work–life balance for some couples caused momentarily by pandemic containment measures, and the fact that women could have been temporarily avoiding or postponing pregnancies until they were fully vaccinated. Rising inflation can be explained partially by shocks on supply and demand brought on by the pandemic. However, a persisting high inflation could have a negative impact on fertility in the future (ibidem).
4.2 Projection assumptions
A large influx of temporary residents has contributed in large part has contributed in large part to the high demographic growth recorded in Canada in recent years (Statistics Canada, 2024c). However, new targets on new temporary resident arrivals announced by the government in the 2025–2027 immigration levels plan could lead to a substantial decrease in the proportion of non–permanent residents (NPRs) in the country (IRCC, 2024a). Because non-permanent residents (NPRs) tend to have lower fertility rates than permanent residents (PRs), this is not inconsequential for the projection of future births. Indeed, part of the variations in historical PTFR values, used for the projection of specific trends in each province and territory, may be due solely to variations in the proportion of NPRs in the country and not to changes in behaviours. Furthermore, the impact of the variations in the proportion of NPRs on the number of projected births will not be captured if fertility rates are applied indistinctly to all women. This is why distinct fertility assumptions have been elaborated for these two population groups.
Age-specific fertility rates for the population of NPR women have been produced using the own-children method (Grabill and Cho, 1965) applied to data from the 2011, 2016 and 2021 censuses.Note Because these values show little variation over time, a single assumption for NPRs is proposed, consisting of a weighted average of the TRFs calculated for 2011, 2016 and 2021. To alleviate the impact of small counts, the Atlantic provinces were grouped as one region and so were the territories.
A time series of PTFR for PRs was derived using the age-specific fertility rates for the total population, age-specific fertility rates specific to NPRs (i.e. , an average age-specific fertility rates from the 2011 National Household Survey and the, 2016 and 2021 censuses), and the proportion of NPR women in the total population by age. Before 2011, the PTFR values of PRs were assumed to be the same as for the total population. For the population of PRs, three projection assumptions (medium, low and high) were established, formulated in terms of PTFR at the national level. The long-term PTFR targets (for year 2049) for these three assumptions were derived from the expert elicitation process conducted in the previous edition of these projections (Statistics Canada, 2024a). Since these targets were applicable to the whole population, they were modified so that they correspond to targets applicable to PRs alone. This was done by assuming that the difference between the PTFR values of PRs and NPRs derived for 2023 in each region will be the same in 2049. This results in PR-specific targets of 1.41 in the medium fertility assumption, 1.18 in the low fertility assumption and 1.66 in the high fertility assumption.
The medium assumption was developed to reflect current trends in each province and territory, especially in the short term, and various factors that may affect the evolution of fertility in the long term. In the medium assumption, a PTFR target for PRs in 2029 is set for Canada and for each region using time series forecasting methods (specifically, a double exponential smoothing model with damped trends, or a Holt model) applied to the times series of PTFR values for PRs from 1999 to 2023. To determine each region’s PTFR target for 2049, the ratio between the national 2029 and 2049 targets is applied to each region’s 2029 target. The 2049 targets are therefore based on short-term trends observed in each province and territory (free of the influence of variations in the number of NPRs) and on the experts’ vision of how PTFRs will evolve in the future in Canada. As the long-term targets for each region are determined in part by recent trends, the targets in the current edition may differ from those in the previous edition. The projected values are calibrated to ensure that, at the national level, the 2049 target is attained. In each province and territory, the trajectory of the PTFR is a cubic interpolation that connects the level observed in 2023, the short-term target forecast in 2029 and the calibrated target determined for 2049. Projected PTFR values remain identical from 2049 to 2074.
A trajectory for the low assumption was established by interpolating the gap between the low and medium assumption targets for 2049 for all preceding years. A logarithmic function was used, as it allows for a relatively large level of variations early in the projection and a diminishing rate of divergence between the two assumptions over time, producing a plausible representation of the uncertainty propagation process. The same method was used to produce a trajectory for the high assumption. Projected PTFRs for PRs and NPRs at the national level are shown in Chart 4.2.1. Table 4.2.1 shows projected PTFR values for PRs and NPRs in Canada and in all provinces and territories according to all assumptions.
Chart 4.2.1 start
Data table for Chart 4.2.1
| Year | Permanent residents | Projected non-permanent residents | Total population - Historic | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Historic | Low assumption | Medium assumption | High asumption | |||
| children per woman | ||||||
|
||||||
| 1999 | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | 1.55 |
| 2000 | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | 1.51 |
| 2001 | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | 1.54 |
| 2002 | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | 1.52 |
| 2003 | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | 1.55 |
| 2004 | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | 1.56 |
| 2005 | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | 1.58 |
| 2006 | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | 1.63 |
| 2007 | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | 1.67 |
| 2008 | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | 1.70 |
| 2009 | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | 1.69 |
| 2010 | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | 1.64 |
| 2011 | 1.66 | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | 1.63 |
| 2012 | 1.66 | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | 1.63 |
| 2013 | 1.64 | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | 1.61 |
| 2014 | 1.65 | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | 1.61 |
| 2015 | 1.64 | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | 1.60 |
| 2016 | 1.63 | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | 1.59 |
| 2017 | 1.59 | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | 1.55 |
| 2018 | 1.55 | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | 1.51 |
| 2019 | 1.52 | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | 1.47 |
| 2020 | 1.45 | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | 1.40 |
| 2021 | 1.47 | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | 1.43 |
| 2022 | 1.36 | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | 1.32 |
| 2023 | 1.30 | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | 1.26 |
| 2024 | ... not applicable | 1.23 | 1.28 | 1.32 | 1.06 | ... not applicable |
| 2025 | ... not applicable | 1.20 | 1.26 | 1.34 | 1.06 | ... not applicable |
| 2026 | ... not applicable | 1.17 | 1.25 | 1.35 | 1.06 | ... not applicable |
| 2027 | ... not applicable | 1.15 | 1.25 | 1.36 | 1.06 | ... not applicable |
| 2028 | ... not applicable | 1.14 | 1.25 | 1.37 | 1.06 | ... not applicable |
| 2029 | ... not applicable | 1.13 | 1.24 | 1.38 | 1.06 | ... not applicable |
| 2030 | ... not applicable | 1.12 | 1.25 | 1.39 | 1.06 | ... not applicable |
| 2031 | ... not applicable | 1.12 | 1.25 | 1.40 | 1.06 | ... not applicable |
| 2032 | ... not applicable | 1.12 | 1.26 | 1.41 | 1.06 | ... not applicable |
| 2033 | ... not applicable | 1.12 | 1.26 | 1.43 | 1.06 | ... not applicable |
| 2034 | ... not applicable | 1.12 | 1.27 | 1.45 | 1.06 | ... not applicable |
| 2035 | ... not applicable | 1.12 | 1.28 | 1.46 | 1.06 | ... not applicable |
| 2036 | ... not applicable | 1.13 | 1.30 | 1.48 | 1.06 | ... not applicable |
| 2037 | ... not applicable | 1.14 | 1.31 | 1.50 | 1.06 | ... not applicable |
| 2038 | ... not applicable | 1.14 | 1.32 | 1.52 | 1.06 | ... not applicable |
| 2039 | ... not applicable | 1.15 | 1.33 | 1.54 | 1.06 | ... not applicable |
| 2040 | ... not applicable | 1.16 | 1.34 | 1.56 | 1.06 | ... not applicable |
| 2041 | ... not applicable | 1.16 | 1.36 | 1.57 | 1.06 | ... not applicable |
| 2042 | ... not applicable | 1.17 | 1.37 | 1.59 | 1.06 | ... not applicable |
| 2043 | ... not applicable | 1.17 | 1.38 | 1.61 | 1.06 | ... not applicable |
| 2044 | ... not applicable | 1.18 | 1.39 | 1.62 | 1.06 | ... not applicable |
| 2045 | ... not applicable | 1.18 | 1.39 | 1.63 | 1.06 | ... not applicable |
| 2046 | ... not applicable | 1.18 | 1.40 | 1.64 | 1.06 | ... not applicable |
| 2047 | ... not applicable | 1.18 | 1.41 | 1.65 | 1.06 | ... not applicable |
| 2048 | ... not applicable | 1.18 | 1.41 | 1.66 | 1.06 | ... not applicable |
| 2049 | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | ... not applicable |
Chart 4.2.1 end
| Region | Permanent residents | Non-permanent residents | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Historic (2023) Table 4.2.1 Note 1 | Projected (2028/2029) | Projected (2048/2049) | Historic (average) Table 4.2.1 Note 2 | Projected (all years) | |||||
| Low assumption | Medium assumption | High assumption | Low assumption | Medium assumption | High assumption | ||||
| children per woman | |||||||||
|
|||||||||
| Canada | 1.30 | 1.14 | 1.25 | 1.37 | 1.18 | 1.41 | 1.66 | 1.06 | 1.06 |
| Newfoundland and Labrador | 1.09 | 0.97 | 1.07 | 1.17 | 1.02 | 1.21 | 1.42 | 1.06 | 1.06 |
| Prince Edward Island | 1.19 | 1.04 | 1.14 | 1.25 | 1.09 | 1.29 | 1.52 | 1.06 | 1.06 |
| Nova Scotia | 1.12 | 0.99 | 1.09 | 1.19 | 1.04 | 1.23 | 1.45 | 1.06 | 1.06 |
| New Brunswick | 1.26 | 1.09 | 1.19 | 1.30 | 1.13 | 1.34 | 1.58 | 1.06 | 1.06 |
| Quebec | 1.41 | 1.23 | 1.35 | 1.48 | 1.29 | 1.53 | 1.80 | 1.28 | 1.28 |
| Ontario | 1.26 | 1.09 | 1.19 | 1.31 | 1.14 | 1.35 | 1.59 | 1.02 | 1.02 |
| Manitoba | 1.59 | 1.37 | 1.50 | 1.65 | 1.43 | 1.70 | 2.00 | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| Saskatchewan | 1.67 | 1.49 | 1.63 | 1.79 | 1.55 | 1.84 | 2.17 | 1.09 | 1.09 |
| Alberta | 1.43 | 1.27 | 1.39 | 1.52 | 1.32 | 1.57 | 1.85 | 1.27 | 1.27 |
| British Columbia | 1.04 | 0.89 | 0.98 | 1.07 | 0.93 | 1.10 | 1.30 | 0.79 | 0.79 |
| Yukon | 1.02 | 1.00 | 1.10 | 1.21 | 1.04 | 1.24 | 1.46 | 0.91 | 0.91 |
| Northwest Territories | 1.41 | 1.29 | 1.41 | 1.55 | 1.34 | 1.59 | 1.87 | 0.91 | 0.91 |
| Nunavut | 2.48 | 2.25 | 2.46 | 2.70 | 2.34 | 2.79 | 3.28 | 0.91 | 0.91 |
5. Projection of mortality
5.1 Background
There is a large degree of uncertainty surrounding the evolution of future mortality. Most high-income countries have seen slowdowns in mortality improvements in the past two or three decades (Olshansky et al. 2024; Dowd, 2024), exacerbated in recent years by the COVID-19 pandemic. Long-term effects of the pandemic on future mortality remain unclear, adding to the unpredictability. Olshansky et al. (2024) note that this deceleration in mortality gains was accompanied by a decline in lifespan inequality, reflecting a compression of the mortality distribution, meaning that deaths have been occurring in a narrower age range, rather than shifting toward later ages. According to the authors, this condition makes it unlikely that life expectancy will improve at the same rate as in previous decades without innovations that could modify the biological aging process. However, for Jdanov and Jasilionis (2024), this may be an overly pessimistic view; they argue that slowdowns observed in high-income countries in the past, which triggered pessimistic mortality forecasts, were later followed by periods of strong improvement. Moreover, population groups with high longevity, such as people who have completed higher education, maintained or even increased their longevity advantage relative to the remaining populations, demonstrating that there is room for improvement.
After three consecutive years of decline, life expectancy at birth in Canada increased between 2022 and 2023 to reach 81.7 years, compared to 81.3 in 2022 (Statistics Canada, 2024e). The increase was observed for both females and males. Life expectancy at birth reached 83.9 for females and 79.5 years for males. Comparable gains have been observed across other OECD countries, reflecting a general rebound in life expectancy between 2020 and 2023 (OECD, 2024).
5.2 Assumptions
Assumptions related to mortality remain unchanged compared to the previous edition. These assumptions take into account the potential impacts of COVID-19 in the future. In the medium mortality assumption, it is assumed that the virus has reached an endemic phase with impacts proportional to those of influenza in past years. The high mortality assumption proposes a trajectory where mortality rates are improving at a slower rate than in the medium assumption and where COVID-19 has reached endemicity with an impact that is twice what was observed for influenza in past years. Finally, the low mortality assumption suggests higher improvements in mortality rates and no impacts from COVID-19. Projected life expectancy at birth by sex and province/territory for selected years according to the low, medium and high mortality assumptions are shown in tables 5.2.1, 5.2.2 and 5.2.3.
| Sex / Region | 1988 | 1993 | 1998 | 2003 | 2008 | 2013 | 2018 | 2023 | 2028/2029 | 2033/2034 | 2038/2039 | 2043/2044 | 2048/2049 | 2053/2054 | 2058/2059 | 2063/2064 | 2068/2069 | 2073/2074 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| years | ||||||||||||||||||
Sources: Statistics Canada. 2024. Life Tables, Canada, Provinces and Territories. Catalogue number 84-537 and Centre for Demography. |
||||||||||||||||||
| Males | ||||||||||||||||||
| N.L. | 73.6 | 73.9 | 74.9 | 75.5 | 76.8 | 77.5 | 78.0 | 77.1 | 79.0 | 80.6 | 81.4 | 82.2 | 82.9 | 83.6 | 84.2 | 84.9 | 85.5 | 86.1 |
| P.E.I. | 72.9 | 73.5 | 74.9 | 75.8 | 77.4 | 78.3 | 79.7 | 79.1 | 80.4 | 81.2 | 81.9 | 82.5 | 83.2 | 83.9 | 84.5 | 85.1 | 85.7 | 86.3 |
| N.S. | 72.8 | 74.2 | 75.2 | 76.5 | 77.6 | 78.1 | 78.2 | 78.3 | 79.3 | 80.7 | 81.5 | 82.2 | 82.9 | 83.6 | 84.3 | 84.9 | 85.5 | 86.1 |
| N.B. | 73.1 | 74.3 | 74.9 | 76.5 | 77.6 | 78.9 | 78.6 | 78.4 | 79.5 | 80.8 | 81.6 | 82.4 | 83.0 | 83.7 | 84.4 | 85.0 | 85.6 | 86.2 |
| Que. | 72.8 | 73.8 | 75.2 | 77.1 | 78.6 | 80.0 | 80.7 | 80.8 | 81.9 | 82.8 | 83.5 | 84.1 | 84.7 | 85.3 | 85.9 | 86.4 | 86.9 | 87.4 |
| Ont. | 74.0 | 75.1 | 76.6 | 77.7 | 79.0 | 80.2 | 80.2 | 80.1 | 81.2 | 82.4 | 83.2 | 83.8 | 84.5 | 85.1 | 85.7 | 86.2 | 86.8 | 87.3 |
| Man. | 73.2 | 74.6 | 75.2 | 76.1 | 76.9 | 77.9 | 78.0 | 76.9 | 79.0 | 80.8 | 81.7 | 82.4 | 83.2 | 83.9 | 84.5 | 85.2 | 85.8 | 86.4 |
| Sask. | 74.0 | 75.3 | 75.5 | 76.2 | 76.7 | 77.8 | 77.9 | 76.7 | 78.7 | 80.9 | 81.8 | 82.6 | 83.3 | 84.0 | 84.7 | 85.4 | 86.0 | 86.5 |
| Alta. | 74.1 | 75.4 | 76.3 | 77.5 | 78.0 | 79.2 | 79.1 | 78.3 | 80.1 | 81.8 | 82.5 | 83.2 | 83.9 | 84.6 | 85.2 | 85.8 | 86.4 | 86.9 |
| B.C. | 74.6 | 75.3 | 77.0 | 78.5 | 79.2 | 80.5 | 79.8 | 79.3 | 80.8 | 82.3 | 83.1 | 83.8 | 84.5 | 85.1 | 85.7 | 86.2 | 86.8 | 87.3 |
| Y.T. | 69.0 | 72.3 | 73.2 | 74.7 | 74.3 | 76.4 | .. not available for a specific reference period | .. not available for a specific reference period | 77.6 | 79.7 | 80.6 | 81.4 | 82.2 | 82.9 | 83.6 | 84.2 | 84.8 | 85.4 |
| N.W.T. | 70.4 | 69.9 | 70.9 | 73.2 | 73.7 | 75.9 | 75.2 | 73.8 | 75.7 | 77.8 | 78.7 | 79.5 | 80.3 | 81.0 | 81.8 | 82.4 | 83.1 | 83.8 |
| Nvt. | .. not available for a specific reference period | .. not available for a specific reference period | .. not available for a specific reference period | 67.1 | 68.4 | 68.4 | 69.4 | 68.5 | 71.3 | 73.4 | 74.6 | 75.6 | 76.6 | 77.6 | 78.6 | 79.5 | 80.4 | 81.2 |
| Females | ||||||||||||||||||
| N.L. | 79.1 | 79.9 | 79.9 | 80.7 | 81.2 | 81.1 | 81.9 | 81.1 | 82.7 | 84.5 | 85.2 | 85.9 | 86.5 | 87.1 | 87.7 | 88.2 | 88.7 | 89.2 |
| P.E.I. | 80.6 | 80.6 | 80.9 | 81.6 | 82.8 | 83.0 | 83.7 | 83.5 | 84.7 | 85.4 | 86.0 | 86.6 | 87.2 | 87.7 | 88.3 | 88.7 | 89.2 | 89.7 |
| N.S. | 79.5 | 80.5 | 80.3 | 81.5 | 82.1 | 82.6 | 82.5 | 82.7 | 83.6 | 84.9 | 85.5 | 86.2 | 86.8 | 87.3 | 87.8 | 88.3 | 88.8 | 89.2 |
| N.B. | 80.7 | 80.8 | 81.1 | 81.8 | 82.8 | 83.1 | 82.4 | 82.5 | 83.6 | 85.1 | 85.7 | 86.3 | 86.9 | 87.4 | 88.0 | 88.4 | 88.9 | 89.3 |
| Que. | 80.0 | 80.7 | 81.3 | 82.3 | 83.2 | 83.9 | 84.2 | 84.3 | 85.2 | 86.1 | 86.7 | 87.2 | 87.7 | 88.2 | 88.6 | 89.0 | 89.4 | 89.8 |
| Ont. | 80.3 | 80.9 | 81.6 | 82.3 | 83.4 | 84.3 | 84.4 | 84.5 | 85.2 | 86.2 | 86.8 | 87.3 | 87.8 | 88.3 | 88.8 | 89.2 | 89.6 | 90.0 |
| Man. | 80.3 | 80.6 | 80.7 | 81.3 | 81.8 | 82.7 | 82.2 | 81.5 | 83.3 | 84.5 | 85.3 | 85.9 | 86.6 | 87.2 | 87.7 | 88.2 | 88.6 | 89.0 |
| Sask. | 81.2 | 81.5 | 81.5 | 81.9 | 82.1 | 82.4 | 82.5 | 81.4 | 83.2 | 84.8 | 85.4 | 86.1 | 86.7 | 87.2 | 87.7 | 88.2 | 88.6 | 88.9 |
| Alta. | 80.5 | 80.9 | 81.9 | 82.2 | 82.6 | 83.3 | 83.9 | 83.1 | 84.3 | 85.6 | 86.2 | 86.7 | 87.3 | 87.8 | 88.2 | 88.6 | 89.0 | 89.4 |
| B.C. | 80.9 | 81.4 | 82.0 | 82.9 | 83.5 | 84.6 | 84.8 | 84.7 | 85.4 | 86.3 | 86.9 | 87.4 | 87.9 | 88.3 | 88.7 | 89.1 | 89.4 | 89.7 |
| Y.T. | 76.0 | 76.0 | 79.3 | 80.1 | 79.3 | 81.2 | .. not available for a specific reference period | .. not available for a specific reference period | 82.5 | 83.8 | 84.5 | 85.2 | 85.8 | 86.3 | 86.8 | 87.3 | 87.8 | 88.2 |
| N.W.T. | 76.7 | 74.8 | 75.9 | 77.6 | 79.5 | 79.8 | 78.5 | 79.8 | 79.6 | 81.1 | 81.8 | 82.4 | 83.1 | 83.7 | 84.4 | 85.0 | 85.5 | 86.0 |
| Nvt. | .. not available for a specific reference period | .. not available for a specific reference period | .. not available for a specific reference period | 71.5 | 74.7 | 72.8 | 72.6 | 73.4 | 75.4 | 76.3 | 77.4 | 78.3 | 79.4 | 80.3 | 81.2 | 82.0 | 82.8 | 83.6 |
| Sex / Region | 1988 | 1993 | 1998 | 2003 | 2008 | 2013 | 2018 | 2023 | 2028/2029 | 2033/2034 | 2038/2039 | 2043/2044 | 2048/2049 | 2053/2054 | 2058/2059 | 2063/2064 | 2068/2069 | 2073/2074 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| years | ||||||||||||||||||
Sources: Statistics Canada. 2024. Life Tables, Canada, Provinces and Territories. Catalogue number 84-537 and Centre for Demography. |
||||||||||||||||||
| Males | ||||||||||||||||||
| N.L. | 73.6 | 73.9 | 74.9 | 75.5 | 76.8 | 77.5 | 78.0 | 77.1 | 80.1 | 81.8 | 82.7 | 83.4 | 84.1 | 84.8 | 85.4 | 86.1 | 86.7 | 87.2 |
| P.E.I. | 72.9 | 73.5 | 74.9 | 75.8 | 77.4 | 78.3 | 79.7 | 79.1 | 81.3 | 82.1 | 82.8 | 83.5 | 84.2 | 84.8 | 85.5 | 86.0 | 86.6 | 87.1 |
| N.S. | 72.8 | 74.2 | 75.2 | 76.5 | 77.6 | 78.1 | 78.2 | 78.3 | 79.9 | 81.4 | 82.2 | 83.0 | 83.7 | 84.4 | 85.1 | 85.7 | 86.3 | 86.9 |
| N.B. | 73.1 | 74.3 | 74.9 | 76.5 | 77.6 | 78.9 | 78.6 | 78.4 | 80.1 | 81.5 | 82.3 | 83.1 | 83.8 | 84.5 | 85.2 | 85.8 | 86.4 | 87.0 |
| Que. | 72.8 | 73.8 | 75.2 | 77.1 | 78.6 | 80.0 | 80.7 | 80.8 | 82.8 | 83.9 | 84.7 | 85.4 | 86.0 | 86.6 | 87.2 | 87.8 | 88.4 | 88.9 |
| Ont. | 74.0 | 75.1 | 76.6 | 77.7 | 79.0 | 80.2 | 80.2 | 80.1 | 81.9 | 83.3 | 84.1 | 84.8 | 85.5 | 86.1 | 86.8 | 87.4 | 87.9 | 88.5 |
| Man. | 73.2 | 74.6 | 75.2 | 76.1 | 76.9 | 77.9 | 78.0 | 76.9 | 80.3 | 82.2 | 83.0 | 83.8 | 84.6 | 85.3 | 85.9 | 86.5 | 87.1 | 87.7 |
| Sask. | 74.0 | 75.3 | 75.5 | 76.2 | 76.7 | 77.8 | 77.9 | 76.7 | 80.2 | 82.5 | 83.5 | 84.3 | 85.0 | 85.8 | 86.4 | 87.0 | 87.5 | 88.2 |
| Alta. | 74.1 | 75.4 | 76.3 | 77.5 | 78.0 | 79.2 | 79.1 | 78.3 | 80.8 | 82.6 | 83.4 | 84.2 | 84.9 | 85.6 | 86.2 | 86.9 | 87.4 | 88.0 |
| B.C. | 74.6 | 75.3 | 77.0 | 78.5 | 79.2 | 80.5 | 79.8 | 79.3 | 81.4 | 83.1 | 83.9 | 84.7 | 85.4 | 86.0 | 86.7 | 87.4 | 88.0 | 88.5 |
| Y.T. | 69.0 | 72.3 | 73.2 | 74.7 | 74.3 | 76.4 | .. not available for a specific reference period | .. not available for a specific reference period | 78.8 | 81.2 | 82.0 | 83.0 | 83.8 | 84.6 | 85.4 | 86.1 | 86.8 | 87.5 |
| N.W.T. | 70.4 | 69.9 | 70.9 | 73.2 | 73.7 | 75.9 | 75.2 | 73.8 | 77.3 | 79.3 | 80.1 | 80.9 | 81.7 | 82.4 | 83.1 | 83.7 | 84.4 | 85.0 |
| Nvt. | .. not available for a specific reference period | .. not available for a specific reference period | .. not available for a specific reference period | 67.1 | 68.4 | 68.4 | 69.4 | 68.5 | 73.5 | 75.6 | 76.5 | 77.5 | 78.5 | 79.5 | 80.5 | 81.3 | 82.2 | 83.0 |
| Females | ||||||||||||||||||
| N.L. | 79.1 | 79.9 | 79.9 | 80.7 | 81.2 | 81.1 | 81.9 | 81.1 | 84.1 | 85.9 | 86.7 | 87.3 | 87.9 | 88.5 | 89.2 | 89.7 | 90.2 | 90.6 |
| P.E.I. | 80.6 | 80.6 | 80.9 | 81.6 | 82.8 | 83.0 | 83.7 | 83.5 | 85.3 | 86.1 | 86.8 | 87.4 | 88.0 | 88.6 | 89.0 | 89.6 | 90.1 | 90.5 |
| N.S. | 79.5 | 80.5 | 80.3 | 81.5 | 82.1 | 82.6 | 82.5 | 82.7 | 84.5 | 85.8 | 86.6 | 87.3 | 87.9 | 88.4 | 89.0 | 89.5 | 90.0 | 90.5 |
| N.B. | 80.7 | 80.8 | 81.1 | 81.8 | 82.8 | 83.1 | 82.4 | 82.5 | 84.5 | 85.9 | 86.7 | 87.3 | 87.9 | 88.4 | 89.0 | 89.5 | 90.0 | 90.4 |
| Que. | 80.0 | 80.7 | 81.3 | 82.3 | 83.2 | 83.9 | 84.2 | 84.3 | 85.8 | 86.8 | 87.5 | 88.1 | 88.7 | 89.2 | 89.7 | 90.2 | 90.7 | 91.1 |
| Ont. | 80.3 | 80.9 | 81.6 | 82.3 | 83.4 | 84.3 | 84.4 | 84.5 | 85.9 | 87.0 | 87.7 | 88.3 | 88.9 | 89.4 | 89.9 | 90.4 | 90.8 | 91.2 |
| Man. | 80.3 | 80.6 | 80.7 | 81.3 | 81.8 | 82.7 | 82.2 | 81.5 | 84.7 | 86.2 | 87.0 | 87.7 | 88.3 | 88.9 | 89.6 | 90.1 | 90.8 | 91.1 |
| Sask. | 81.2 | 81.5 | 81.5 | 81.9 | 82.1 | 82.4 | 82.5 | 81.4 | 84.6 | 86.5 | 87.4 | 88.2 | 88.8 | 89.5 | 90.1 | 90.6 | 91.1 | 91.6 |
| Alta. | 80.5 | 80.9 | 81.9 | 82.2 | 82.6 | 83.3 | 83.9 | 83.1 | 85.0 | 86.4 | 87.1 | 87.8 | 88.4 | 88.9 | 89.4 | 90.0 | 90.4 | 90.9 |
| B.C. | 80.9 | 81.4 | 82.0 | 82.9 | 83.5 | 84.6 | 84.8 | 84.7 | 86.1 | 87.2 | 87.9 | 88.5 | 89.0 | 89.5 | 90.0 | 90.5 | 90.9 | 91.4 |
| Y.T. | 76.0 | 76.0 | 79.3 | 80.1 | 79.3 | 81.2 | .. not available for a specific reference period | .. not available for a specific reference period | 83.4 | 84.9 | 85.7 | 86.5 | 87.4 | 88.0 | 88.7 | 89.3 | 90.0 | 90.5 |
| N.W.T. | 76.7 | 74.8 | 75.9 | 77.6 | 79.5 | 79.8 | 78.5 | 79.8 | 80.8 | 82.2 | 82.9 | 83.5 | 84.2 | 84.8 | 85.4 | 86.0 | 86.6 | 87.0 |
| Nvt. | .. not available for a specific reference period | .. not available for a specific reference period | .. not available for a specific reference period | 71.5 | 74.7 | 72.8 | 72.6 | 73.4 | 77.9 | 78.8 | 80.0 | 81.5 | 82.6 | 83.6 | 84.5 | 85.2 | 86.1 | 86.9 |
| Sex / Region | 1988 | 1993 | 1998 | 2003 | 2008 | 2013 | 2018 | 2023 | 2028/2029 | 2033/2034 | 2038/2039 | 2043/2044 | 2048/2049 | 2053/2054 | 2058/2059 | 2063/2064 | 2068/2069 | 2073/2074 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| years | ||||||||||||||||||
Sources: Statistics Canada. 2024. Life Tables, Canada, Provinces and Territories. Catalogue number 84-537 and Centre for Demography. |
||||||||||||||||||
| Males | ||||||||||||||||||
| N.L. | 73.6 | 73.9 | 74.9 | 75.5 | 76.8 | 77.5 | 78.0 | 77.1 | 77.6 | 79.2 | 80.0 | 80.7 | 81.5 | 82.1 | 82.8 | 83.6 | 84.1 | 84.7 |
| P.E.I. | 72.9 | 73.5 | 74.9 | 75.8 | 77.4 | 78.3 | 79.7 | 79.1 | 79.2 | 79.9 | 80.5 | 81.3 | 82.1 | 82.8 | 83.4 | 84.1 | 84.7 | 85.3 |
| N.S. | 72.8 | 74.2 | 75.2 | 76.5 | 77.6 | 78.1 | 78.2 | 78.3 | 78.7 | 80.1 | 80.8 | 81.5 | 82.2 | 82.8 | 83.4 | 84.1 | 84.6 | 85.2 |
| N.B. | 73.1 | 74.3 | 74.9 | 76.5 | 77.6 | 78.9 | 78.6 | 78.4 | 78.9 | 80.2 | 80.9 | 81.6 | 82.3 | 82.9 | 83.5 | 84.2 | 84.7 | 85.3 |
| Que. | 72.8 | 73.8 | 75.2 | 77.1 | 78.6 | 80.0 | 80.7 | 80.8 | 80.9 | 81.7 | 82.3 | 82.8 | 83.4 | 84.0 | 84.5 | 85.1 | 85.7 | 86.1 |
| Ont. | 74.0 | 75.1 | 76.6 | 77.7 | 79.0 | 80.2 | 80.2 | 80.1 | 80.4 | 81.7 | 82.2 | 82.9 | 83.5 | 84.1 | 84.6 | 85.2 | 85.8 | 86.3 |
| Man. | 73.2 | 74.6 | 75.2 | 76.1 | 76.9 | 77.9 | 78.0 | 76.9 | 77.7 | 79.4 | 80.2 | 80.9 | 81.7 | 82.5 | 83.3 | 84.0 | 84.6 | 85.1 |
| Sask. | 74.0 | 75.3 | 75.5 | 76.2 | 76.7 | 77.8 | 77.9 | 76.7 | 77.1 | 79.1 | 79.8 | 80.9 | 81.7 | 82.5 | 83.3 | 84.0 | 84.6 | 85.3 |
| Alta. | 74.1 | 75.4 | 76.3 | 77.5 | 78.0 | 79.2 | 79.1 | 78.3 | 79.4 | 81.0 | 81.7 | 82.4 | 83.1 | 83.8 | 84.4 | 85.0 | 85.6 | 86.2 |
| B.C. | 74.6 | 75.3 | 77.0 | 78.5 | 79.2 | 80.5 | 79.8 | 79.3 | 80.2 | 81.7 | 82.5 | 83.1 | 83.8 | 84.5 | 85.1 | 85.7 | 86.2 | 86.8 |
| Y.T. | 69.0 | 72.3 | 73.2 | 74.7 | 74.3 | 76.4 | .. not available for a specific reference period | .. not available for a specific reference period | 76.3 | 78.6 | 79.5 | 80.3 | 81.0 | 81.9 | 82.7 | 83.4 | 84.0 | 84.7 |
| N.W.T. | 70.4 | 69.9 | 70.9 | 73.2 | 73.7 | 75.9 | 75.2 | 73.8 | 73.9 | 76.1 | 77.0 | 78.0 | 78.7 | 79.4 | 80.1 | 81.0 | 81.6 | 82.2 |
| Nvt. | .. not available for a specific reference period | .. not available for a specific reference period | .. not available for a specific reference period | 67.1 | 68.4 | 68.4 | 69.4 | 68.5 | 69.0 | 71.2 | 72.2 | 73.3 | 74.5 | 75.6 | 76.5 | 77.5 | 78.4 | 79.3 |
| Females | ||||||||||||||||||
| N.L. | 79.1 | 79.9 | 79.9 | 80.7 | 81.2 | 81.1 | 81.9 | 81.1 | 81.3 | 83.2 | 83.9 | 84.4 | 85.1 | 85.8 | 86.4 | 86.9 | 87.4 | 88.0 |
| P.E.I. | 80.6 | 80.6 | 80.9 | 81.6 | 82.8 | 83.0 | 83.7 | 83.5 | 84.0 | 84.7 | 85.2 | 85.9 | 86.4 | 86.9 | 87.4 | 87.9 | 88.4 | 88.9 |
| N.S. | 79.5 | 80.5 | 80.3 | 81.5 | 82.1 | 82.6 | 82.5 | 82.7 | 82.8 | 83.9 | 84.6 | 85.3 | 85.9 | 86.5 | 87.0 | 87.5 | 88.0 | 88.5 |
| N.B. | 80.7 | 80.8 | 81.1 | 81.8 | 82.8 | 83.1 | 82.4 | 82.5 | 82.8 | 84.3 | 85.0 | 85.6 | 86.1 | 86.7 | 87.2 | 87.7 | 88.3 | 88.8 |
| Que. | 80.0 | 80.7 | 81.3 | 82.3 | 83.2 | 83.9 | 84.2 | 84.3 | 84.8 | 85.7 | 86.2 | 86.8 | 87.3 | 87.8 | 88.3 | 88.7 | 89.2 | 89.7 |
| Ont. | 80.3 | 80.9 | 81.6 | 82.3 | 83.4 | 84.3 | 84.4 | 84.5 | 84.8 | 85.7 | 86.2 | 86.8 | 87.3 | 87.8 | 88.2 | 88.8 | 89.2 | 89.6 |
| Man. | 80.3 | 80.6 | 80.7 | 81.3 | 81.8 | 82.7 | 82.2 | 81.5 | 82.0 | 83.3 | 83.9 | 84.6 | 85.4 | 86.0 | 86.6 | 87.1 | 87.8 | 88.3 |
| Sask. | 81.2 | 81.5 | 81.5 | 81.9 | 82.1 | 82.4 | 82.5 | 81.4 | 81.9 | 83.5 | 84.2 | 84.9 | 85.5 | 86.2 | 86.8 | 87.4 | 88.1 | 88.6 |
| Alta. | 80.5 | 80.9 | 81.9 | 82.2 | 82.6 | 83.3 | 83.9 | 83.1 | 83.8 | 85.2 | 85.7 | 86.3 | 86.9 | 87.4 | 87.9 | 88.4 | 88.9 | 89.3 |
| B.C. | 80.9 | 81.4 | 82.0 | 82.9 | 83.5 | 84.6 | 84.8 | 84.7 | 85.1 | 86.1 | 86.7 | 87.2 | 87.7 | 88.2 | 88.7 | 89.1 | 89.6 | 90.0 |
| Y.T. | 76.0 | 76.0 | 79.3 | 80.1 | 79.3 | 81.2 | .. not available for a specific reference period | .. not available for a specific reference period | 82.1 | 83.3 | 84.0 | 84.6 | 85.2 | 85.9 | 86.4 | 87.1 | 87.5 | 88.0 |
| N.W.T. | 76.7 | 74.8 | 75.9 | 77.6 | 79.5 | 79.8 | 78.5 | 79.8 | 78.2 | 79.7 | 80.4 | 81.3 | 81.8 | 82.5 | 83.1 | 83.9 | 84.4 | 84.9 |
| Nvt. | .. not available for a specific reference period | .. not available for a specific reference period | .. not available for a specific reference period | 71.5 | 74.7 | 72.8 | 72.6 | 73.4 | 73.1 | 74.0 | 74.9 | 75.7 | 76.5 | 77.6 | 78.3 | 79.2 | 80.0 | 80.6 |
6. Projection of immigration and number of non-permanent residents
6.1 Background
Each year since 2018, Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) releases its three-year immigration levels. The 2025–2027 immigration levels plan is more comprehensive than in the past, both in its goals and in what it covers (IRCC, 2024a). For the first time, the plan includes targets for non-permanent residents,Note while previous editions used to propose only targets related to admissions of new permanent residents (or landed immigrants). The plan proposes a substantial reduction of admissions of new permanent residents and a decrease in the number of non-permanent residents living in the country, with the affirmed goal of pausing population growth in the short term to avoid adding pressures on housing, infrastructure and social services (IRCC, 2024a; IRCC, 2024b).Note As per provisory projections made by IRCC, the plan could result in a population decline of 0.2% in 2025 and 2026.
6.2 Immigration
In 2023, Canada welcomed 471,808 immigrants (IRCC 2024c). This was an increase of 7.8% compared to 2022 when the country welcomed 437,539 new immigrants. However, the 2025–2027 Immigration Levels Plan suggest a substantial decrease in the number of new permanent residents in Canada in the next three years (Table 6.2.1). Numbers for years 2026 and 2027 are described as ‘notional’ as they could be revised in the next Immigration Levels Plans to be released in 2025 and 2026.
| Category | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|
| number | |||
| Source: Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (2024a). | |||
| Overall | 395,000 (367,000 – 436,000) |
380,000 (352,000 – 416,000) |
365,000 (338,000 – 401,000) |
| Economic | 232,150 (215,000 – 256,000) |
229,750 (214,000 – 249,000) |
225,350 (207,000 – 246,000) |
| Family | 94,500 (88,500 – 102,000) |
88,000 (82,000 – 96,000) |
81,000 (77,000 – 89,000) |
| Refugees and Protected Persons, Humanitarian & Compassionate and Other | 68,350 (63,500 – 78,000) |
62,250 (56,000 – 71,000) |
58,650 (54,000 – 66,000) |
Three projection assumptions were established: medium, low and high. In the medium assumption, the number of immigrants is set to match the targets proposed by IRCC for 2025, 2026 and 2027.Note Note After 2027, the number of new immigrants is formulated in terms of national immigration rates, based on an interpolation starting from 2027 to a target of 9.3 per thousand to be reached in 2049. The low and high immigration assumptions propose distinct trajectories of immigration rates based on long-term targets of 7.0 and 12.0 per thousand, respectively. Each trajectory is obtained by interpolating the gap between the 2049 targets for all preceding years. A logarithmic function is used to obtain a relatively large spread early in the projection and a diminishing rate of divergence over time, producing a plausible representation of the uncertainty propagation process. The long-term targets for all three immigration assumptions remain the same as in the previous edition of these projections; see Statistics Canada (2024a) for a description. Chart 6.2.2 illustrates the projected immigration rates at the national level.
Chart 6.2.2 start
Data table for Chart 6.2.2
| Period | Historic | Low assumption | Medium assumption | High assumption |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| per thousand | ||||
|
||||
| 1999/2000 | 6.77 | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | ... not applicable |
| 2000/2001 | 8.23 | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | ... not applicable |
| 2001/2002 | 8.27 | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | ... not applicable |
| 2002/2003 | 6.35 | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | ... not applicable |
| 2003/2004 | 7.56 | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | ... not applicable |
| 2004/2005 | 7.66 | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | ... not applicable |
| 2005/2006 | 7.89 | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | ... not applicable |
| 2006/2007 | 7.31 | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | ... not applicable |
| 2007/2008 | 7.59 | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | ... not applicable |
| 2008/2009 | 7.38 | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | ... not applicable |
| 2009/2010 | 8.05 | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | ... not applicable |
| 2010/2011 | 7.62 | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | ... not applicable |
| 2011/2012 | 7.57 | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | ... not applicable |
| 2012/2013 | 7.58 | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | ... not applicable |
| 2013/2014 | 7.64 | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | ... not applicable |
| 2014/2015 | 6.80 | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | ... not applicable |
| 2015/2016 | 9.05 | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | ... not applicable |
| 2016/2017 | 7.55 | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | ... not applicable |
| 2017/2018 | 8.30 | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | ... not applicable |
| 2018/2019 | 8.46 | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | ... not applicable |
| 2019/2020 | 7.55 | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | ... not applicable |
| 2020/2021 | 5.95 | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | ... not applicable |
| 2021/2022 | 12.90 | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | ... not applicable |
| 2022/2023 | 12.04 | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | ... not applicable |
| 2023/2024 | 11.58 | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | ... not applicable |
| 2024/2025 | ... not applicable | 9.79 | 10.33 | 10.98 |
| 2025/2026 | ... not applicable | 8.57 | 9.35 | 10.28 |
| 2026/2027 | ... not applicable | 8.06 | 9.01 | 10.13 |
| 2027/2028 | ... not applicable | 7.72 | 8.80 | 10.07 |
| 2028/2029 | ... not applicable | 7.60 | 8.80 | 10.22 |
| 2029/2030 | ... not applicable | 7.51 | 8.82 | 10.36 |
| 2030/2031 | ... not applicable | 7.43 | 8.83 | 10.48 |
| 2031/2032 | ... not applicable | 7.37 | 8.85 | 10.60 |
| 2032/2033 | ... not applicable | 7.32 | 8.87 | 10.71 |
| 2033/2034 | ... not applicable | 7.28 | 8.90 | 10.82 |
| 2034/2035 | ... not applicable | 7.24 | 8.93 | 10.93 |
| 2035/2036 | ... not applicable | 7.21 | 8.96 | 11.03 |
| 2036/2037 | ... not applicable | 7.19 | 8.99 | 11.13 |
| 2037/2038 | ... not applicable | 7.17 | 9.03 | 11.23 |
| 2038/2039 | ... not applicable | 7.15 | 9.06 | 11.32 |
| 2039/2040 | ... not applicable | 7.13 | 9.09 | 11.41 |
| 2040/2041 | ... not applicable | 7.12 | 9.13 | 11.50 |
| 2041/2042 | ... not applicable | 7.11 | 9.16 | 11.59 |
| 2042/2043 | ... not applicable | 7.09 | 9.19 | 11.67 |
| 2043/2044 | ... not applicable | 7.08 | 9.21 | 11.74 |
| 2044/2045 | ... not applicable | 7.07 | 9.24 | 11.81 |
| 2045/2046 | ... not applicable | 7.05 | 9.26 | 11.87 |
| 2046/2047 | ... not applicable | 7.03 | 9.27 | 11.93 |
| 2047/2048 | ... not applicable | 7.01 | 9.28 | 11.98 |
| 2048/2049 | ... not applicable | 6.99 | 9.29 | 12.02 |
Chart 6.2.2 end
The projected proportion of immigrants admitted in each province and territory and their age and gender composition within each region were based on an average of distributions observed in IRCC data from 2021 to 2024 as well as the targets set by the Quebec government for the year 2025 (Ministère de l'Immigration, de la Francisation et de l'Intégration, 2025). Note that under the Canada-Quebec Accord, Quebec has full responsibility for the selection of immigrants destined to Quebec, with the exception of the family class and protected persons.
In the case of Quebec, the projected proportion of 14.85% corresponds closely, on the medium immigration assumption, to the numbers set for regular admissions and skilled workers selected under the Quebec Experience Program, “Quebec Graduates” component. This proportion remains fixed throughout the projection, implying that the number of immigrants received by Quebec will evolve in proportion to the number received in the country as a whole. This is consistent with the Quebec government's intention to lower permanent immigration thresholds in 2026 (Carabin, 2024). The age and gender breakdown of immigrants received in Quebec reflects that observed between 2021 and 2024, but is adjusted according to the target proportions of immigrants in the major immigration categories (economic immigration, family reunification, refugees and people in similar situations) specified in the 2025 annual plan.
In the rest of the country, the projected distribution reflects that observed between 2021 and 2024. These distributions were subsequently adjusted twice. A first adjustment was made to correct for the discrepancy between an immigrant’s province or territory of destination as reported to IRCC before entering Canada and the actual province or territory of residence once landed in Canada. This was done by applying correction factors calculated using the Longitudinal Immigration Database (IMDB). A second adjustment was made based on the distribution of admissions by category of immigration specified in the 2025–2027 Immigration Levels Plan. Specifically, this adjustment reflects how the changes in the share of each category can affect the location and the composition of new immigrants compared to previous years. The proportions remain identical after 2026/2027 (Table 6.2.2).| Region | 2024/2025 | 2025/2026 | 2026/2027 and subsequent periods |
|---|---|---|---|
| percent | |||
| Source: Statistics Canada, Centre for Demography. | |||
| Newfoundland and Labrador | 0.70 | 0.71 | 0.72 |
| Prince Edward Island | 0.49 | 0.50 | 0.52 |
| Nova Scotia | 2.36 | 2.39 | 2.44 |
| New Brunswick | 2.00 | 2.03 | 2.08 |
| Quebec | 14.85 | 14.85 | 14.85 |
| Ontario | 44.43 | 44.21 | 43.96 |
| Manitoba | 4.26 | 4.31 | 4.37 |
| Saskatchewan | 3.74 | 3.80 | 3.88 |
| Alberta | 11.93 | 11.88 | 11.85 |
| British Columbia | 15.03 | 15.10 | 15.13 |
| Yukon | 0.09 | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| Northwest Territories | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| Nunavut | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
6.3 Non-permanent residents (NPRs)
After a record increase in the number of non-permanent residents in the country in 2023 (Statistics Canada, 2024e), the government has announced its commitment to reducing their number so that their proportion in the country reaches 5% of the total population by 2026. (IRCC, 2024e; 2024f). This is the first time that a specific target was stated for non-permanent residents. Such targets were also stated explicitly in the 2025–2027 Immigration Levels Plan (IRCC, 2024b), which provides more details on how this objective will be achieved (see Table 6.3.1). Among the measures selected by IRCC to reach these goals are an annual cap on international student study permits, the tightening of eligibility requirements for the Post-Graduation Work Permit Program to better align immigration goals and labour market needs, a 10% cap on employers hiring temporary foreign workers under the low-wage stream, an increase to the starting hourly wage for temporary foreign workers in the high-wage stream by 20% and the tightening of work permits eligibility for spouses of international students and temporary foreign workers (IRCC, 2024g; 2024h). Numerous factors entered the calculation of the targets of NPRs in Canada, including the number of permits that will expire, the number of NPRs who will become permanent residents and permits renewal rates (IRCC, 2024g). Some observers have expressed concerns in the feasibility of the plan. For example, Young, Gu and Bambokian (2024) have described the plan as complex and dependent on measures spread across a variety of programs. Likewise, the Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer (2024) noted that there is a significant risk that the projected outflow of non-permanent residents will not materialize.
| Category | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| number | ||||
|
||||
| Non-permanent residents (NPR): | ||||
| Outflows | 588,409 | 1,262,801 | 1,104,658 | 875,129 |
| Inflows of which: | 887,625 | 816,900 | 659,036 | 892,568 |
| Subject to targets set for: | ||||
| Workers Table 6.3.1 Note 1 | .. not available for a specific reference period | 367,750 | 210,700 | 237,700 |
| Students Table 6.3.1 Note 2 | .. not available for a specific reference period | 305,900 | 305,900 | 305,900 |
| Inflows for contingency reserve | .. not available for a specific reference period | 143,250 | 142,436 | 348,968 |
| Net change in non-permanent residents | 299,216 | -445,901 | -445,622 | 17,439 |
| Population of non-permanent residents | 2,961,000 | 2,515,099 | 2,069,477 | 2,086,916 |
| Non-permanent residents as a proportion of the Canadian population (percent) | 7.1 | 6.1 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
Long-term targets for the low, medium and high assumptions remain the same as the previous edition of these projections (Statistics Canada, 2024a) at 3.2%, 4.7% and 6,5%, respectively. In the short term, the medium assumption follows IRCC’s targets developed for 2025, 2026 and 2027. Since these targets relate to the end of the calendar year and that the projections are made for periods going from July to June, some translation was required. A simple interpolation is used to complete the trajectory from 2027 to the long-term target established for 2049.
Chart 6.3.1 start
Data table for Chart 6.3.1
| Year | Historic | Low assumption | Medium assumption | High assumption |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| percent | ||||
|
||||
| 2021 | 3.41 | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | ... not applicable |
| 2022 | 3.89 | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | ... not applicable |
| 2023 | 5.56 | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | ... not applicable |
| 2024 | 7.27 | ... not applicable | ... not applicable | ... not applicable |
| 2025 | ... not applicable | 6.51 | 6.60 | 7.14 |
| 2026 | ... not applicable | 5.40 | 5.55 | 6.27 |
| 2027 | ... not applicable | 4.80 | 5.00 | 5.81 |
| 2028 | ... not applicable | 4.74 | 5.00 | 5.94 |
| 2029 | ... not applicable | 4.67 | 4.99 | 6.04 |
| 2030 | ... not applicable | 4.59 | 4.98 | 6.12 |
| 2031 | ... not applicable | 4.52 | 4.97 | 6.18 |
| 2032 | ... not applicable | 4.44 | 4.96 | 6.23 |
| 2033 | ... not applicable | 4.36 | 4.94 | 6.27 |
| 2034 | ... not applicable | 4.28 | 4.92 | 6.31 |
| 2035 | ... not applicable | 4.20 | 4.90 | 6.33 |
| 2036 | ... not applicable | 4.11 | 4.88 | 6.35 |
| 2037 | ... not applicable | 4.03 | 4.86 | 6.36 |
| 2038 | ... not applicable | 3.95 | 4.83 | 6.37 |
| 2039 | ... not applicable | 3.87 | 4.81 | 6.38 |
| 2040 | ... not applicable | 3.79 | 4.79 | 6.38 |
| 2041 | ... not applicable | 3.71 | 4.77 | 6.39 |
| 2042 | ... not applicable | 3.63 | 4.75 | 6.39 |
| 2043 | ... not applicable | 3.56 | 4.73 | 6.40 |
| 2044 | ... not applicable | 3.48 | 4.72 | 6.40 |
| 2045 | ... not applicable | 3.41 | 4.70 | 6.41 |
| 2046 | ... not applicable | 3.34 | 4.69 | 6.42 |
| 2047 | ... not applicable | 3.28 | 4.68 | 6.43 |
| 2048 | ... not applicable | 3.21 | 4.68 | 6.45 |
| 2049 | ... not applicable | 3.15 | 4.68 | 6.47 |
Chart 6.3.1 end
The high assumption was established by interpolating the gap between the high and medium assumption targets for 2049. A logarithmic function was used to obtain a quickly diverging path in the short term, reflecting potential hurdles in reaching the 5% target. The low assumption was constructed in the same way, but a linear function was used, yielding values relatively close to IRCC’s plan, reflecting the significant effort required to reach the 5% target and the relatively low likelihood that the reduction ends up surpassing that target. The projected distribution of NPRs by region, age and gender is based on recent data but changes over time to reflect changes in the proportion of NPRs with study permits, those with work permits and asylum claimants, as per IRCC’s 2025–2027 Immigration Levels Plan.
The regional distribution and the composition by age and gender of NPRs are based on proportions observed in the past. From 2025 to 2029, the proportion of the total number of NPRs a region receives is a linear interpolation of the proportion observed in 2024 and the average distribution observed from 2021 to 2024 (table 6.3.2). The distribution remains fixed after 2029. Proportions are also adjusted during the course of the projections to reflect changes in the relative size of regions within all provinces and territories. For example, a region whose demographic weight increases will receive a greater proportion of NPRs. The assumption is that regions that grow faster propose growing numbers of opportunities for NPRs compared to regions with slower growth. This adjustment has no impact on the age and gender distribution within a region.
| Region | 2024 | 2029 and subsequent years |
|---|---|---|
| percent | ||
|
Note: Proportions evolve during the course of the projection to reflect changes in the relative sizes of the provinces and territories. Source: Statistics Canada, Centre for Demography. |
||
| Newfoundland and Labrador | 0.59 | 0.60 |
| Prince Edward Island | 0.38 | 0.47 |
| Nova Scotia | 1.86 | 2.00 |
| New Brunswick | 1.22 | 1.20 |
| Quebec | 19.54 | 19.55 |
| Ontario | 45.86 | 46.20 |
| Manitoba | 2.81 | 2.78 |
| Saskatchewan | 1.45 | 1.45 |
| Alberta | 8.46 | 7.30 |
| British Columbia | 17.72 | 18.36 |
| Yukon | 0.06 | 0.07 |
| Northwest Territories | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Nunavut | 0.01 | 0.01 |
7. Projection of emigration
7.1 Background
The emigration component is the net amount of two elements: people leaving the country (emigration) and Canadians returning to the country (return emigration). Permanent emigrants, referred to simply as emigrants, are defined as Canadian citizens or permanent residents who left Canada to settle in another country. Return emigrants are defined as Canadian citizens or immigrants who have returned to Canada to re-establish permanent residence after having previously emigrated.
7.2 Projection assumptions
Three projection assumptions (medium, low and high) for emigration were established, formulated in terms of the gross migraproduction rate (GMPR) and distributions by age, gender, province and territory. The medium assumption was developed to reflect the historical trends in each province and territory and the possible long-term developments. A short-term GMPR forecast was produced for each region using simple exponential smoothing (SES) models applied to time series from 2016/2017 to 2023/2024. The period 2020/2021 was omitted because of atypical trends associated with COVID-19-related travel and migration restrictions. The SES model was chosen for its capacity to provide higher weight to more recent data and work with a relatively short time series of historical data. A cubic interpolation is used to complete the GMPR trajectory between the GMPR forecast value in 2029, and long-term GMPR targets specified for 2049. The regional long-term GMPR targets are set so that the ratio between the 2029 and the 2049 GMPR targets projected at the national level remain the same in each region. The long-term GMPR targets at the national level remains unchanged compared to the previous edition for the three assumptions (see Statistics Canada, 2024a). After 2049, assumptions are held constant for the remainder of the projection (to 2074).
The GMPR trajectory of the low emigration assumption was established by interpolating the difference between the low and medium assumption targets in 2049 using a logarithmic function to obtain a quick divergence and to better reflect the uncertainty early in the projection. The same method was used to produce a trajectory for the high emigration assumption (Table 7.2.1). Lastly, composition by age and gender of projected emigrants is established based on the proportions and trends observed in each province and territory in the period from 2021/2022 to 2023/2024.
| Component / Assumption / Period | Canada | N.L. | P.E.I. | N.S. | N.B. | Que. | Ont. | Man. | Sask. | Alta. | B.C. | Y.T. | N.W.T. | Nvt. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| per thousand | ||||||||||||||
| Source: Statistics Canada, Centre for Demography. | ||||||||||||||
| Emigration | ||||||||||||||
| Low assumption | ||||||||||||||
| 2023/2024 | 2.39 | 0.47 | 1.00 | 1.22 | 0.96 | 1.41 | 2.96 | 2.07 | 1.40 | 2.36 | 3.32 | 0.73 | 0.76 | 0.62 |
| 2028/2029 | 1.95 | 0.49 | 0.86 | 1.07 | 0.74 | 1.22 | 2.31 | 1.54 | 1.16 | 1.98 | 2.85 | 0.86 | 0.47 | 0.52 |
| 2048/2049 | 1.57 | 0.39 | 0.69 | 0.86 | 0.60 | 0.98 | 1.86 | 1.24 | 0.94 | 1.60 | 2.30 | 0.69 | 0.38 | 0.42 |
| Medium assumption | ||||||||||||||
| 2023/2024 | 2.39 | 0.47 | 1.00 | 1.22 | 0.96 | 1.41 | 2.96 | 2.07 | 1.40 | 2.36 | 3.32 | 0.73 | 0.76 | 0.62 |
| 2028/2029 | 2.34 | 0.58 | 1.03 | 1.29 | 0.89 | 1.46 | 2.77 | 1.85 | 1.40 | 2.38 | 3.42 | 1.03 | 0.56 | 0.62 |
| 2048/2049 | 2.25 | 0.56 | 0.99 | 1.24 | 0.86 | 1.40 | 2.66 | 1.78 | 1.34 | 2.29 | 3.29 | 0.99 | 0.54 | 0.60 |
| High assumption | ||||||||||||||
| 2023/2024 | 2.39 | 0.47 | 1.00 | 1.22 | 0.96 | 1.41 | 2.96 | 2.07 | 1.40 | 2.36 | 3.32 | 0.73 | 0.76 | 0.62 |
| 2028/2029 | 2.79 | 0.70 | 1.23 | 1.54 | 1.06 | 1.74 | 3.31 | 2.21 | 1.67 | 2.84 | 4.08 | 1.23 | 0.67 | 0.74 |
| 2048/2049 | 3.04 | 0.76 | 1.34 | 1.67 | 1.16 | 1.90 | 3.60 | 2.41 | 1.82 | 3.09 | 4.45 | 1.34 | 0.73 | 0.81 |
| Returning emigration | ||||||||||||||
| Low assumption | ||||||||||||||
| 2023/2024 | 1.28 | 0.28 | 0.60 | 0.82 | 0.63 | 0.92 | 1.55 | 0.91 | 0.82 | 1.42 | 1.55 | 0.52 | 0.19 | 0.17 |
| 2028/2029 | 1.05 | 0.24 | 0.63 | 0.70 | 0.51 | 0.75 | 1.29 | 0.80 | 0.62 | 1.16 | 1.30 | 0.42 | 0.16 | 0.14 |
| 2048/2049 | 0.95 | 0.22 | 0.57 | 0.63 | 0.46 | 0.68 | 1.17 | 0.72 | 0.56 | 1.04 | 1.17 | 0.38 | 0.15 | 0.13 |
| Medium assumption | ||||||||||||||
| 2023/2024 | 1.28 | 0.28 | 0.60 | 0.82 | 0.63 | 0.92 | 1.55 | 0.91 | 0.82 | 1.42 | 1.55 | 0.52 | 0.19 | 0.17 |
| 2028/2029 | 1.26 | 0.29 | 0.75 | 0.84 | 0.61 | 0.90 | 1.55 | 0.96 | 0.75 | 1.38 | 1.55 | 0.50 | 0.20 | 0.17 |
| 2048/2049 | 1.36 | 0.31 | 0.81 | 0.91 | 0.66 | 0.97 | 1.67 | 1.04 | 0.81 | 1.50 | 1.68 | 0.54 | 0.21 | 0.18 |
| High assumption | ||||||||||||||
| 2023/2024 | 1.28 | 0.28 | 0.60 | 0.82 | 0.63 | 0.92 | 1.55 | 0.91 | 0.82 | 1.42 | 1.55 | 0.52 | 0.19 | 0.17 |
| 2028/2029 | 1.51 | 0.34 | 0.90 | 1.01 | 0.74 | 1.08 | 1.86 | 1.15 | 0.89 | 1.66 | 1.86 | 0.60 | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| 2048/2049 | 1.85 | 0.42 | 1.11 | 1.23 | 0.90 | 1.32 | 2.28 | 1.41 | 1.10 | 2.03 | 2.28 | 0.74 | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| Net emigration | ||||||||||||||
| Low assumption | ||||||||||||||
| 2023/2024 | 1.11 | 0.19 | 0.40 | 0.40 | 0.33 | 0.49 | 1.41 | 1.16 | 0.58 | 0.94 | 1.77 | 0.21 | 0.57 | 0.45 |
| 2028/2029 | 0.90 | 0.25 | 0.23 | 0.37 | 0.23 | 0.47 | 1.02 | 0.74 | 0.54 | 0.83 | 1.55 | 0.44 | 0.31 | 0.37 |
| 2048/2049 | 0.62 | 0.18 | 0.12 | 0.23 | 0.13 | 0.30 | 0.69 | 0.52 | 0.38 | 0.55 | 1.12 | 0.31 | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| Medium assumption | ||||||||||||||
| 2023/2024 | 1.11 | 0.19 | 0.40 | 0.40 | 0.33 | 0.49 | 1.41 | 1.16 | 0.58 | 0.94 | 1.77 | 0.21 | 0.57 | 0.45 |
| 2028/2029 | 1.08 | 0.30 | 0.28 | 0.45 | 0.28 | 0.56 | 1.22 | 0.89 | 0.65 | 0.99 | 1.86 | 0.52 | 0.37 | 0.45 |
| 2048/2049 | 0.89 | 0.25 | 0.18 | 0.33 | 0.19 | 0.43 | 0.99 | 0.74 | 0.54 | 0.79 | 1.61 | 0.44 | 0.33 | 0.41 |
| High assumption | ||||||||||||||
| 2023/2024 | 1.11 | 0.19 | 0.40 | 0.40 | 0.33 | 0.49 | 1.41 | 1.16 | 0.58 | 0.94 | 1.77 | 0.21 | 0.57 | 0.45 |
| 2028/2029 | 1.28 | 0.35 | 0.33 | 0.53 | 0.33 | 0.66 | 1.45 | 1.06 | 0.77 | 1.18 | 2.22 | 0.62 | 0.44 | 0.53 |
| 2048/2049 | 1.19 | 0.34 | 0.23 | 0.44 | 0.25 | 0.58 | 1.33 | 1.00 | 0.72 | 1.06 | 2.16 | 0.59 | 0.44 | 0.55 |
The assumptions for return emigration were derived directly from the emigration assumptions. More specifically, the projected long-term target of the medium return emigration assumption consists of a ratio of the medium emigration assumption target—that is, the average of the ratio of returning emigrants to permanent emigrants observed over the period from 2016/2017 to 2023/2024 (60.7%). The same ratio is used for the low and high assumptions. This assumption of a fixed ratio of the return emigration rates to permanent emigration rates appears plausible in that it tends to remain relatively stable over time, having fluctuated, for example, between 53% and 65% over the reference period. The short-term assumptions were obtained in the same way as for emigration: by extrapolating return emigration trends by age for the period from 2016/2017 to 2023/2024. As with emigration, composition by age and gender of the projected returning emigrants is established based on the proportions and trends observed in each province and territory over the period from 2016/2017 to 2023/2024.
8. Projection of internal migration
8.1 Background
Interprovincial migration is the movement of people between the provinces and territories in Canada. The COVID-19 pandemic and the changes in the world of work that followed upset interprovincial migration trends in the country. Record numbers of interprovincial migrants have been recorded in 2021/2022 and 2022/2023, following the start of the pandemic. In 2023/2024 however, the number of interprovincial migrants (306,756) was closer to pre-pandemic levels (Statistics Canada, 2024f).
8.2 Projection assumptions
Internal migration parameters consist of interprovincial migration rates by origin and destination. Rates are calculated based on historical data, with the various scenarios reflecting distinct historical periods. An adjustment is made to the projected migration rates to account for the fact that migration flows change only according to the sizes and characteristics of the populations of origin, regardless of the populations of the regions of destination, and to keep the projected net migration rates close to the values observed during the selected reference periods (Dion, 2017).
In order to account for the magnitude of the uncertainty associated with the projection of internal migration, six assumptions are proposed, constituting as many scenarios. Assumption M1, which can be considered in some way as a medium assumption, is developed from the longest period for which data are available for all provinces and territories (from 1991/1992 to 2023/2024). In the short term, however, it takes into account the recent changes described above. Thus, the migration rates of assumption M1 over the first 10 years consist of a linear interpolation of the average migration rates observed between 2020/2021 and 2023/2024 toward the average rates observed between 1991/1992 and 2023/2024, rates that remain constant thereafter (after 2033/2034).
Assumptions M2 to M5 reflect situations observed over shorter periods, selected so that each province and territory had at least one assumption representative of a relatively favourable period (in terms of population growth) and another reflecting a relatively unfavourable period. Assumption M6 reflects the situation observed over the very recent period (2020/2021 to 2023/2024).
| Region | Average net migration rates for each scenario | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | M2 | M3 | M4 | M5 | M6 | |
| 1991/1992 to 2023/2024 | 1995/1996 to 2010/2011 | 2003/2004 to 2008/2009 | 2009/2010 to 2016/2017 | 2014/2015 to 2016/2017 | 2021/2022 to 2023/2024 | |
| Source: Statistics Canada, Centre for Demography. | ||||||
| Newfoundland and Labrador | -0.42 | -0.65 | -0.42 | 0.04 | -0.07 | 0.15 |
| Prince Edward Island | 0.07 | -0.06 | -0.28 | -0.25 | -0.05 | 0.45 |
| Nova Scotia | 0.02 | -0.14 | -0.24 | -0.09 | 0.04 | 0.44 |
| New Brunswick | -0.05 | -0.17 | -0.23 | -0.19 | -0.15 | 0.47 |
| Quebec | -0.11 | -0.12 | -0.10 | -0.12 | -0.14 | -0.08 |
| Ontario | -0.04 | -0.01 | -0.11 | -0.03 | 0.03 | -0.18 |
| Manitoba | -0.41 | -0.36 | -0.42 | -0.38 | -0.43 | -0.50 |
| Saskatchewan | -0.41 | -0.32 | -0.21 | -0.12 | -0.43 | -0.49 |
| Alberta | 0.45 | 0.68 | 0.75 | 0.31 | -0.07 | 0.89 |
| British Columbia | 0.26 | 0.07 | 0.25 | 0.22 | 0.46 | -0.05 |
| Yukon | 0.06 | -0.29 | 0.29 | 0.65 | 0.81 | 0.17 |
| Northwest Territories | -0.90 | -1.05 | -1.13 | -0.81 | -0.64 | -1.53 |
| Nunavut | -0.40 | -0.37 | -0.54 | -0.24 | -0.46 | -0.77 |
9. References
Bérard-Chagnon, J., Hallman, S. & Caron, G. (2019). Recent immigrants and non-permanent residents missed in the 2011 Census. Statistics Canada.
Carabin, F. (2024, December 18). Québec impose un nouveau moratoire en immigration. Le Devoir. Consulted on December 18, 2024. https://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/826407/quebec-impose-nouveau-moratoire-immigration
Dion, P. (2017). An alternative to fixed transition probabilities for the projection of interprovincial migration in Canada. Population Research and Policy Review, 36(6), 871–901. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11113-017-9440-6
Dowd, J.B., Polizzi, A. & Tilstra, A.M. (2024). Progress Stalled? The Uncertain Future of Mortality in High-Income Countries. Population and Development Review. https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12687
Grabill, W.R. & Cho, L.J. (1965). Methodology for the measurement of current fertility from population data on young children. Demography, 2 (1), 50-73. https://doi.org/10.2307/2060106
Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (2024a). 2024 Annual Report to Parliament on Immigration. Consulted on October 28, 2024. https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/corporate/publications-manuals/annual-report-parliament-immigration-2024.html
Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (2024b, October 24). Impact of immigration on Canada’s population growth 2024–2027. Consulted on October 28, 2024. https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/corporate/mandate/corporate-initiatives/levels/population-growth-2014-2027.html
Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (2024c, October 25). Canada’s immigration levels. Consulted on October 28, 2024. https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/corporate/mandate/corporate-initiatives/levels.html
Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (2024d, October 24). 2024 Consultations on immigration levels – final report. Consulted on October 28, 2024. https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/corporate/transparency/consultations/2024-consultations-immigration-levels-report.html
Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (2024e, March 21). Speaking notes for the Honourable Marc Miller, Minister of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship. https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/news/2024/03/speaking-notes-for-the-honourable-marc-miller-minister-of-immigration-refugees-and-citizenship-announcement-related-to-temporary-residents.html
Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (2024f, September 18). News release - Strengthening temporary residence programs for sustainable volumes. Consulted on October 28, 2024. https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/news/2024/09/strengthening-temporary-residence-programs-for-sustainable-volumes.html
Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (2024g, October 24). Backgrounder – 2025-2027 Immigration Levels Plan. Consulted on November 11, 2024. https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/news/2024/10/20252027-immigration-levels-plan.html
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