Projections of the Aboriginal Population and Households in Canada, 2011 to 2036
- Main page
- Base population and projection model
- Projection assumptions and scenarios
- Cautionary notes
- Analysis of results – Population
- Analysis of results – Households
- Appendix data tables
- More information
- PDF version
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People who reported an ancestry associated with the Aboriginal peoples of Canada in response to the ethnic origin question in the National Household Survey (NHS). Ancestry refers to the ethnic or cultural origins of the respondent's ancestors, an ancestor being usually more distant than a grandparent. A person can have more than one ethnic or cultural origin. This does not mean that the person identified with his or her ancestors' Aboriginal group or groups. For the purposes of this projection exercise, we never refer to the population with an Aboriginal ancestry.
Refers to people who reported being an Aboriginal person—First Nations (North American Indian), Métis or Inuk (Inuit)—in response to question 18 of the 2011 NHS.
Private households composed of at least one person of Aboriginal identity.
Aboriginal identity (classification used by
Aboriginal Affairs and Northern Development Canada)
A concept that includes the same total number of people with an Aboriginal identity as the variable defined according to the classification used by Statistics Canada (see the definition of this concept in this glossary). However, the classification used by Aboriginal Affairs and Northern Development Canada (AANDC) includes the 'Registered Indian' category, with a corresponding reduction in the population for all other Aboriginal identities. See the "Concepts" section for more details.
(classification used by Statistics Canada)
Refers to people who reported being an Aboriginal person—First Nations (North American Indian), Métis or Inuk (Inuit)—and/or who reported being a Registered or Treaty Indian, as defined by the Indian Act of Canada, and/or who reported being a member of a First Nation/Indian band in the 2011 NHS. This variable according to the classification used by Statistics Canada includes the same total number of people with an Aboriginal identity as the variable according to the classification used by AANDC. However, this variable gives priority to Aboriginal group categories rather than to registered Indian status. See the "Concepts" section for more details.
See "Aboriginal ancestry."
See "Aboriginal identity."
Histogram (column diagram) that shows population distribution by age and sex.
The population used as the starting point for population projections.
An area consisting of one or more adjacent municipalities centered on a population core. It has a population of at least 100,000, of which 50,000 or more live in the core.
Represents a group of people who experienced a specific demographic event during a given period that may be one year in length. For example, the married cohort of 1966 consists of the people who married in 1966. In the case of births, people born within a specified year are referred to as a generation.
Method used for population estimates or projections that is based on the components of demographic change and a base population as input. The phrase "cohort-component method" is usually restricted to methods projecting the future evolution of cohorts by age and sex, as opposed to other methods, such as microsimulation, that also use components of population growth but that project the demographic destiny of individuals.
Any class of event that generates population changes. For example, births, deaths and migration are components that modify either the size of the total population or its composition by age and sex.
Refers to "the phenomenon of individuals and families changing the ethnic affiliation that they report" (Guimond et al. 2007). Ethnic mobility has two components: intragenerational and intergenerational (Boucher et al. 2009).
A demographic phenomenon related to live births that can be considered from the point of view of women, the couple and, very occasionally, men.
Headship rate (or
primary household maintainer rate)
Proportion of primary household maintainers (or household heads) in a given population.
Highest level of education
A person's most advanced certificate, diploma or degree.
See "Headship rate."
The person in the household who pays the dwelling's rent or mortgage, or taxes, or electricity bill, etc. In the NHS, there may be up to five household maintainers in the same household. For the purposes of this projection exercise, a primary household maintainer or household head was selected randomly from all of the maintainers present in a household.
An administrative category under which a person is admitted to Canada as a permanent resident under the Immigration and Refugee Protection Act. At the aggregate level, classes are composed of economic immigrants, immigrants admitted as members of a family, immigrants admitted as protected people (refugees) and other immigrants.
The sum of all immigrants from other countries landing in Canada, involving a change in usual place of residence.
The number of immigrants divided by the size of the population during a given period.
In the context of the Census program (which includes the NHS), "on reserve" includes six types of census subdivisions legally affiliated with First Nations or Indian bands: Indian reserves, Indian settlements (except for the five Yukon settlements of Champagne Landing 10, Klukshu, Two and One-Half Mile Village, Two Mile Village and Kloo Lake), Indian government districts, terres réservées aux Cris, terres réservées aux Naskapis and Nisga'a land, as well as the northern village of Sandy Bay in Saskatchewan.
Refers to a change in ethnic affiliation between parents and their children, with the parent(s) not having the same ethnic affiliation as the child(ren).
The sum of all population movements between the geographic units within Canada's geographical boundaries, involving a change in usual place of residence.
The sum of all movements between Canada and other countries, involving a change in usual place of residence.
The sum of all movements among the 50 main geographic entities defined in Demosim, namely the 35 regions derived from the census metropolitan areas and the 15 regions derived from elsewhere in the provinces and territories.
Refers to a change in an individual's ethnic affiliation over the course of his or her life.
The sum of all movements within one of the 50 main geographic entities defined in Demosim, namely one of the 35 regions derived from the census metropolitan areas or one of the 15 regions derived from elsewhere in the provinces and territories.
Inuit Nunangat is the homeland of Inuit of Canada. It includes the communities located in the four Inuit regions: Nunatsiavut (Northern coastal Labrador), Nunavik (Northern Quebec), the territory of Nunavut and the Inuvialuit region of the Northwest Territories.
A person who has been granted the right to live in Canada permanently by immigration authorities.
A statistical measure derived from the life table, indicating the average number of years of life remaining for a population at a specific age "x", calculated on the basis of the mortality rates observed in a given year. We usually use the life expectancy at birth.
An age "x", such that exactly one half of the population is older than "x" and the other half is younger than "x".
Member of a First
Refers to people who reported that they were members of a First Nation/Indian band in the NHS. In the NHS, an Indian band is defined as a group of Indians for whose collective use and benefit lands have been set apart or money is being held by the Crown, or who have been declared to be a band for the purpose of the Indian Act. Many Indian bands have elected to call themselves a First Nation and have changed their band name to reflect this. With the 1985 amendment to the Indian Act of Canada (Bill C-31), many Indian bands exercised the right to establish their own membership code, under which it was not always necessary for a band member to be a Registered Indian according to the Indian Act.
Unlike population estimates and projections produced using the cohort-component method, microsimulation simulates the demographic destiny of each individual. The method is based on multiple random drawing at the individual level rather than on aggregated data applied at the population group level.
The change in the size of a population owing to the difference between the number of migrants who settle within a geographic area and the number of migrants who leave that same area during a given period.
The change in the size of a population owing to the difference between the number of births and the number of deaths during a given period.
The difference between the number of people who were covered by the census but who were not enumerated (undercoverage) and the number of people who were enumerated when they should not have been or who were enumerated more than once (overcoverage).
People who have a work or study permit or who are refugee claimants, and the family members living in Canada with them.
A method that indirectly estimates fertility by using a census or an equivalent data source (Grabill and Cho 1965; Desplanques 1993). This method links the youngest children—here children aged less than one year—to the woman aged 15 to 49 years living in the same family who is most likely to be the mother. The women identified in this way are considered as having given birth recently to a child (here during the last year). Using this link, as well as some adjustments, it is possible to compute fertility rates according to various characteristics.
The total number of years lived in a given state by the people who make up the population from January 1 to December 31 of a given year. In this study, projected population figures are presented in person-years, while the figures for the base population are as of May 10, 2011 (Census and NHS Day).
or total increase
The change in the size of a population between two dates.
The future population size resulting from a set of assumptions regarding the demographic and non-demographic components of growth.
A set of living quarters designed for or converted for human habitation in which a person or group of people reside or could reside. In addition, a private dwelling must have a source of heat or power and must be an enclosed space that provides shelter from the elements, as evidenced by complete and enclosed walls and roof and by doors and windows that provide protection from wind, rain and snow.
A person or group of people (other than foreign residents) who occupy a private dwelling and who do not have a usual place of residence elsewhere in Canada. The number of private households is equal to the number of occupied dwellings.
A set of assumptions relating to the components, demographic or otherwise, used to make a population projection.
Reclassification of registration
categories from 6(2) to 6(1)
Refers to Registered Indians with a registration category of 6(2) who are reclassified to a registration category of 6(1) during their lifetime. In this report, reclassification from registration category 6(2) to category 6(1) may result from the application of Bill C-3 or from various other reasons.
Registered or Treaty
Indian (Status Indian)
People who reported that they were Status Indians (Registered or Treaty Indians) in the 2011 NHS. Registered Indians are people who are registered under the Indian Act of Canada. Treaty Indians are people who belong to a First Nation or Indian band that signed a treaty with the Crown. Registered or Treaty Indians are sometimes also called Status Indians.
Registration categories 6(1) and
6(2) on the Indian Register
The registration category 6(1) or 6(2) is assigned to Registered Indians when they register on the Indian Register. Registration categories 6(1) and 6(2) correspond to the rules set out in subsections 6(1) and 6(2) of article 6 in the 1985 Indian Act, which establish the criteria that people must meet to register on the Indian Register. Within the meaning of the act, people registered under subsection 6(1) differ from those registered under subsection 6(2) with regard to their ability to transmit their status to their children. A parent registered under category 6(1) can always pass on his/her registered Indian status to the child, but a parent registered under category 6(2) can pass on the status only if the other parent is also registered.
The number of emigrants minus the number of returning emigrants plus net temporary emigration.
Total fertility rate
The sum of age-specific fertility rates during a given year. It indicates the average number of children that a generation of women would have if, over the course of their reproductive life, they experienced the age-specific fertility rates observed during the year considered.
The Employment Equity Act defines visible minorities as "persons, other than Aboriginal peoples, who are non-Caucasian in race or non-white in colour."
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