Section 1 – Assumptions and selection of scenarios

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All projection assumptions and scenarios are summarized in Table 1.1. The purpose of having multiple projection scenarios is to reflect the uncertainty associated with the future. The various projection scenarios are constructed by combining a number of assumptions regarding the future evolution of each of the components of population growth.

The five medium-growth scenarios (M1, M2, M3, M4 and M5) were developed on the basis of assumptions reflecting different internal migration patterns observed in the past. Each scenario puts forward a separate assumption to reflect the volatility of this component.

The low-growth (L) and high-growth (H) scenarios bring together assumptions that are consistent with either lower or higher population growth than in the medium-growth scenarios at the Canada level. For example, assumptions that entail high fertility, low mortality, high immigration, low emigration and high numbers of non-permanent residents are the foundation for the high-growth scenario. Essentially, the low-growth and high-growth scenarios are intended to provide a plausible and sufficiently broad range of projected numbers to take account of the uncertainties inherent in any projection exercise. Note that in the low-growth and high-growth scenarios, the interprovincial migration assumption is the same as that used in the M1 medium-growth scenario, based on the period 1991/1992 to 2010/2011.

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