Annual Demographic Estimates: Canada, Provinces and Territories, 2022
Analysis: Population by age and sex

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This section presents an analysis of the population estimates by age and sex for Canada, the provinces and territories on July 1, 2022, compared with the July 1 estimates in previous years.

The aging of baby boomers accelerates Canada’s population aging

Population aging continues to be the major force of change on Canada’s age and sex structure. An aging population shapes many aspects of society and the economy. The demographic aging process is currently accelerating as individuals born between 1946 and 1965—the large baby boomer cohort—reach more advanced ages. This aging process is also explained by the combination of a fertility rate below the replacement level (2.1 children per woman) since 1972^Note  and an almost-continuous increase in life expectancy for both males and females.^Note 

The population pyramid (Figure 2.1) illustrates the aging of Canada’s population in recent decades by comparing the age and sex structure of the population on July 1 in 2002 and 2022.

On July 1, 2002, baby boomers were in their mid-30s to mid-50s, as can be seen in the bulge in the pyramid at these ages. On July 1, 2022, individuals in the baby boomer generation were aged 56 to 76, as illustrated by the upward shift in the large bulge in the pyramid observed 20 years earlier. Therefore, the number of people aged 55 and older was proportionally higher in 2022 (32.4%) than in 2002 (22.6%). In contrast, the number of younger people, particularly people in their mid-30s to early 50s, as well as individuals aged 0 to 20, has proportionally decreased.

The gap widens between children and older people

Since 2011, baby boomers have contributed significantly to the increase in the number of people aged 65 and older. People aged 65 and older started to outnumber children aged 0 to 14 between July 1, 2015 and July 1, 2016. In 2021/2022, the difference between the number of people in these two age groups continued to increase.

On July 1, 2022, a record number of 7,329,910 Canadians—18.8% of the population—were 65 years of age or older.

In comparison, there were 6,070,741 children aged 0 to 14 (15.6%) in Canada, an increase in number following the decrease seen the year prior. However, the proportion of children in this age group has been declining since 2016.

Since the number of older people is growing faster than the number of children, the demographic weight of children has decreased in recent years. In comparison, there were two to three times more children aged 0 to 14 than people aged 65 and older before 1987. According to the medium growth (M1) scenario of the most recent population projections,^Note  the proportion of people 65 and older should exceed 20% between July 1, 2024, and July 1, 2025, and reach 25% in 2059/2060. Meanwhile, the proportion of children aged 0 to 14 should remain relatively stable at around 14% to 15% over the same period.

From July 1, 2021 to July 1, 2022, the growth rate of the persons aged 65 and older was 3.4%, almost twice the growth rate of the population as a whole (+1.8%). The growth rate of children aged 0 to 14 years was 0.8% over the same annual period. Since the beginning of the period covered by the current demographic accounting system (July 1971), the population growth rate for children has always remained lower than that of older persons, thereby contributing to population aging.

During 2021/2022, pandemic related border restrictions were lifted and the number of international flights increased. More immigrants were able to come to Canada as well as non-permanent residents, including people fleeing the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the political situation in Afghanistan. Because of this, the growth rate of people aged 15 to 64 (1.6%) was the highest it has been since 1988/1989 (1.7%).

Children still outnumber older persons in the Prairie provinces and the territories

Population aging affects all regions of the country; however, this process is unfolding at an unequal pace, and certain provinces are aging faster than others. Consequently, the proportion of people aged 65 and older and that of children aged 0 to 14 varies significantly from east to west and from north to south.

In Canada’s eastern and central provinces and in British Columbia, the proportion of people 65 years and older was higher than the proportion of children aged 0 to 14 years on July 1, 2022. However, the Prairie provinces and the territories showed the reverse, with higher proportions of children aged 0 to 14 than people 65 years and older. Thirteen years ago, on July 1, 2009, Nova Scotia and New Brunswick were the first two provinces where the proportion of people aged 65 and older exceeded that of children aged 0 to 14.

On July 1, 2022, Newfoundland and Labrador had the highest proportion of people aged 65 and older (23.6%). This proportion increased 7.2 percentage points over 10 years, the largest increase among all provinces and territories. In contrast, Alberta (14.8%) had the lowest proportion of people aged 65 and older among the provinces. As for children aged 0 to 14, the highest proportion among the provinces was observed in Saskatchewan (19.3%), and the lowest was in Newfoundland and Labrador (13.0%). Differences in the fertility, immigration and interprovincial migration rates largely explain gaps in the age structure between provinces and territories.

The age structure of the population of the territories differs from that of the provinces. High fertility^Note  and mortality^Note Note  explain why the demographic weight of children is larger than that of older people. In particular, Nunavut stood out with children aged 0 to 14 making up 30.7% of the population and a low proportion of people aged 65 and older (4.5%). Population aging is still happening in Nunavut, albeit at a slower pace. Ten years ago, on July 1, 2012, 31.6% of the population was aged 0 to 14 while 3.3% were aged 65 and older.

More than one in two baby boomers are aged 65 and older

Like the rest of the population, the baby boomer cohorts are aging. For the first time in 2021/2022, more than half of baby boomers were aged 65 and older on July 1, 2022, up from 5.9% ten years ago. By 2031, the entire baby boomer cohort, whose youngest members were born in 1965, will have turned 65.

The demographic composition of the group aged 65 and older is changing rapidly. Before 2011, there were no members of the baby boomer generation in this group. Since 2011, as the first baby boomers started turning 65, growth of this group has accelerated. On July 1, 2022, baby boomers made up almost two-thirds (63.8%) of people aged 65 and older. However, their demographic weight within the overall population is decreasing, down to 23.7% in mid‑2022, compared with 28.0% in 2012. Given their advancing age, they become more and more at risk of dying.

Canada has just over one child or older person for every two working-age people

The demographic dependency ratio represents the number of children (0 to 14 years) and older people (65 years and older) per 100 working-age people (15 to 64 years). On July 1, 2022, the ratio was 52.5. This indicator has been rising steadily since reaching a record low in 2007 (44.0).

It could continue to rise beyond 2031, when the youngest baby boomers will turn 65. According to the medium growth (M1) scenario in the most recent population projections, the demographic dependency ratio should be 58.0 in 2031 and 68.2 in 2068.

Given their numbers, since their birth, baby boomers have always had a noticeable impact on the demographic dependency ratio. In 1971, the beginning of the period covered by the current demographic accounting system, a good number of baby boomers were still children. At that time, the demographic dependency ratio was 59.5. However, as the baby boomers reached adulthood, that ratio gradually dropped and remained low from 1980 to 2011, while all members of this generation were of working age. The recent increase in the demographic dependency ratio is explained by the baby boomers turning 65.

The number of people aged 55 to 64 compared with youth aged 15 to 24 dropped lately, due to high international migration

People aged 55 to 64 are often on the cusp of or in retirement. In contrast, individuals aged 15 to 24 generally have recently or are about to enter the labour market for the first time.

On July 1, 2022, there were 114 people potentially leaving the labour market for every 100 potential entrants. Those people aged 55 to 64 years consist of the youngest baby boomers and the oldest year of Generation X. In 1984, Canada had two people aged 15 to 24 per person aged 55 to 64, which demonstrates the major reversal in Canada over the last four decades. Subsequent years were marked by a steady decrease in this ratio, such that starting in 2013, the number of people potentially leaving began to outnumber the number of those potentially entering the labour market. This number rose to 118 on July 1, 2021, but dropped to 114 one year later. This could be due to these two main trends: fewer younger people able to enter the country during 2020/2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the high rate of international migration in 2021/2022, bringing in younger people to Canada. Also, it may be being impacted by the fact that people turning 55 in 2021/2022, who are the first cohorts of Generation X, are less numerous than those of the baby boom generation, exiting the age group of the 55-to-64 years olds.Note ^Note 

The demographic dependency ratio varies from one province and territory to another

In 2022, the Atlantic provinces and Quebec had a higher demographic dependency ratio than Canada (52.5) because of an increasing number of people aged 65 and older. In addition, the demographic dependency ratio was also higher in Manitoba (54.3) and Saskatchewan (57.0) than it was for the country. This situation was mainly because of the slightly higher proportion of children aged 0 to 14 in these provinces. Nunavut (54.1) also had a higher demographic dependency ratio than Canada, but differed from the other provinces and territories, as it had a high number of children and a low number of older persons.

The number of centenarians is growing rapidly

On July 1, 2022, preliminary estimates indicate that there were 13,484 centenarians in Canada, a 4.4% increase from the same date the year before (12,906). The number of centenarians in Canada is constantly growing, mainly because of increasing life expectancy.

In the past 20 years (or since 2002), the number of centenarians has almost quadrupled. In the latest annual period (2021/2022), the growth rate of centenarians was 4.4%, almost 2.5 times the growth rate for the entire population (1.8%). However, this growth rate has been decreasing since 2018/2019, when it was at 11.2% and was down from 8.8% in 2020/2021. This could be a result of the COVID-19 pandemic having a higher numbers of deaths in oldest-old Canadians^Note  and the preponderance of deaths in nursing care facilities and residences for senior citizens at the start of the pandemic (second quarter 2020).^Note 

The population growth of centenarians was the second highest of each five-year population age group, following the 75-79 age group (+7.6%). In relative numbers, there were 35 centenarians per 100,000 population in Canada. In 2002, the proportion was 12 centenarians per 100,000 population.

Female population is older on average than the male population

The main population aging indicators are all higher for females. On July 1, 2022, the proportion of people aged 65 and older was higher among females (20.2%) than among males (17.5%), although the gap had been narrowing since 1993, there were slight increases every year since 2018. The average age was also higher for females (42.6 years) than for males (40.9 years). Furthermore, the centenarian group comprised mostly females (80.5%).

These differences are mainly because females, at all ages, have lower mortality levels than males. These mortality levels create a persistent yet narrowing gap in life expectancy in favour of females. The most recent data (2018 to 2020) show that the life expectancy at birth of females was 84.1 years, compared with 79.8 years for males, with females living an average of 4.3 years longer than males. Twenty years earlier, this gap was 5.3 years.^Note  Life expectancy at birth for both females and males was slightly lower than from 2017 to 2019 (female: 84.1 years, male: 79.9 years), reflecting the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the older population.^Note 

The average age of the Canadian population continues to increase

On July 1, 2022, the average age^Note  of Canadians was 41.7 years. The average age has increased by 3.9 years since 2002, when it was 37.8 years.

Average age varies considerably from province to province. On July 1, 2022, there was a difference of 6.3 years between the province with the highest average age (45.3 years in Newfoundland and Labrador) and the province with the lowest average age (39.0 years in Alberta). Taking the territories into consideration, Nunavut had the lowest average age at 29.3 years.

In 2002, the differences between the provinces were much smaller, with a gap of 3.4 years. The highest average age was in Nova Scotia (39.0 years), and the lowest was in Alberta (35.6 years).

Differences in age structure between provinces and territories have tended to increase over the past 20 years, even though all regions of the country are experiencing a relatively rapid aging of the population.

The situation in Newfoundland and Labrador indicates an especially rapid aging of its population. In just over 15 years, the average age in the province went from the province with the lowest average age in the country (32.5 on July 1, 1989) to the province with the highest average age (40.4 years on July 1, 2006, tied with Nova Scotia). During most of this period, the province saw negative population growth. The main contributing factors are the departure of many young adults to other provinces and territories, along with lower fertility.

Conversely, the Prairie provinces were the youngest provinces on July 1, 2022, with an average age of 39.0 years in Alberta, 39.3 years in Manitoba and 39.4 years in Saskatchewan. This is mainly because of a higher proportion of Indigenous populations (Manitoba, Saskatchewan),^Note  who are generally younger and with higher fertility rates, as well as a greater migratory inflow of young adults and families from other provinces (Alberta).

Males slightly outnumbered by females

On July 1, 2022, the sex ratio for the entire Canadian population was estimated at 98.9 males per 100 females. This ratio has been rising very slowly in most years since 1998 (98.0). Males outnumber females up to the age of 39, mainly because of the sex ratio at birth, which averages 105 males per 100 females. When people reach their mid-60s, the number of males starts to fall significantly below the number of females because of excess mortality among males. This gap widens at more advanced ages: among those aged 65 to 79, there were an estimated 91.6 males per 100 females on July 1, 2022.

However, the gap between the sexes seems to be narrowing over time. Thirty years ago, the sex ratio for people aged 65 to 79 was 78.8 males per 100 females. Among those aged 80 and older, there were an estimated 69.4 males per 100 females on July 1, 2022, compared with a sex ratio of 52.0 on July 1, 1992. On July 1, 2022, centenarians were predominantly female, with a ratio of 24.3 males per 100 females. This ratio was down slightly from July 1, 2021 (25.0).

The sex ratio is higher in the Prairie provinces and Quebec

There are some differences between the provinces in terms of the sex structure of the population. On July 1, 2022, the province with the lowest sex ratio in the country was Nova Scotia (96.5 males per 100 females), and the province with the highest sex ratio was Saskatchewan (101.3 males per 100 females). The sex ratios in the Atlantic provinces, Ontario, and British Columbia were below the national average (98.9 males per 100 females), while they were all higher in the Prairie provinces and in Quebec. Among other factors, this situation can be attributed to differences in the aging of Canada’s regions: a younger population is usually slightly more male, and an older population is usually more female.

On July 1, 2022, males outnumbered females in all the territories because they are home to younger populations than elsewhere in Canada. The main differences between the sex structure in the territories and in Canada as a whole are at higher ages. For ages 65 and older, the sex ratios for the territories were 107.9 males per 100 females for Yukon, 104.0 for the Northwest Territories and 137.3 for Nunavut, compared with 85.8 males per 100 females nationally.

Migrants are much younger than the entire population

The population pyramid (Figure 2.2) highlights the differences in the age and sex structure of interprovincial migrants, new immigrants, non-permanent residents and the total population.^Note  On July 1, 2022, the proportion of the working-age population (aged 15 to 64) was considerably higher among immigrants (81.9%), interprovincial migrants (77.8%) and non-permanent residents (94.1%) compared with the total population (65.6%).

These groups also had a high concentration of young adults. A majority of non-permanent residents (70.7%) were between 18 and 34 years of age. In comparison, immigrants were slightly older, and less concentrated in some age groups, with 69.4% aged 20 to 45. Among interprovincial migrants, 61.9% were aged 20 to 50. Similarly, the average ages of interprovincial migrants (34.0 years), non-permanent residents (28.6 years) and immigrants (30.6 years) were lower than the average age of the Canadian population (41.7 years) on July 1, 2022.

Immigrants stood out for having a demographic weight of children aged 0 to 14 (14.8%) similar to the total Canadian population (15.6%), particularly because of family migration. The proportion of immigrants aged 65 and older (3.2%) can be explained by the migration of the parents of immigrants. In comparison, 5.1% of non-permanent residents were aged 0 to 14 in 2022. The distinct age structure of non-permanent residents is because those who come to Canada mainly do so for work or to study, and are often young adults with no children. Moreover, interprovincial migration among those 65 and older (7.7%) was partly associated with retirement migrations.

Males outnumber females among immigrants, non-permanent residents and interprovincial migrants

The sex structure also differs between each of the three subgroups. Males were overrepresented among non-permanent residents (131.1 males per 100 females). However, among interprovincial migrants (104.1 males per 100 females) and immigrants (103.0 males per 100 females), the sex ratios were closer to that of the overall Canadian population (98.9 males per 100 females).

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