Report on the Demographic Situation in Canada
Fertility: Overview, 2012 to 2016

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Introduction

This article analyzes the recent changes in fertility in Canada, with a focus on the years 2012 to 2016 and a selected historical perspective.

The indicators analyzed include the annual and daily number of births, total fertility rate, age-specific fertility rates, average age at childbirth, including by birth order, cohort completed fertility rate and multiple births. This article also includes results and a brief analysis at the provincial and territorial levels.

Data on the number of births come from the Canadian Vital Statistics Births Database^{Note 1}. The birth data in conjunction with the most recent annual population estimates for that year are used to calculate fertility rates.

Number of births

There were 381,869 births in Canada in 2012, 380,323 in 2013, 384,100 in 2014, 382,392 in 2015 and 383,102 in 2016. These figures reflect a period of slow growth in births, following rapid growth between 2003 and 2008. The rise in the number of births starting in 2009, although less marked, was attributable to an increase in the number of women in their prime productive years, since the total fertility rate decreased slightly between 2009 and 2016 (see Total fertility rate section).

The annual growth in the number of births in the past five years has fluctuated, compared with the period from 2002/2003 to 2008/2009, when it remained positive and stronger (2.1% on average). Between 2011 and 2012 and between 2013 and 2014, the number of births rose around 1.0% across Canada, while they fell 0.4% from 2012 to 2013 and from 2014 to 2015. There was only a small increase of 0.2% between 2015 and 2016. Since 2001, the total number of births fell only four times, in 2001/2002 and 2009/2010, and more recently in 2012/2013 and 2014/2015. In contrast, the growth in the number of women aged 25 to 34 has remained positive since 2003/2004.

Provincial/territorial variation

Between 2012 and 2016, Quebec, Ontario and British Columbia recorded 71.3% of all births on average during the period. However, the annual growth (positive or negative) in the number of births for these three most populous provinces was often below that of Canada. In contrast, the number of births generally increased year over year in the Prairie provinces. These latter provinces also most frequently posted the highest annual increases in the number of births. The Atlantic provinces and the territories had the smallest numbers of births, with annual fluctuations leading to increased variation in annual growth.

Focusing on the last two years, between 2015 and 2016, there was positive growth in the annual number of births in most provinces and territories, above Canadian growth (0.2%). The strongest growth took place in Nunavut (5.0%), followed by Prince Edward Island (4.0%) and British Columbia (2.2%). Three provinces and one territory recorded decreases in the number of births: the Northwest Territories (-6.0%), Alberta (-1.8%), Quebec (-0.9%) and Newfoundland and Labrador (-0.7%).

Number of births by day of the week and time of year

On a quarterly basis, which corresponds closely with the four seasons, there are seasonal birth patterns over the course of a year. Thus, more babies are born during the summer months, from July to September. In contrast, fewer births take place during the winter, from January to March.^{Note 2} It seems that many couples plan the conception of their child so that the baby is born during the summer.^{Note 3}

In Canada, the daily change in births^{Note 4} over the course of a year follows a similar trend to the ones recently observed in England and Wales,^{Note 5} New Zealand,^{Note 6} and the United States.^{Note 7} Between 2001 and 2016, the average number of births per day in Canada was at its lowest on December 25, 26 and 24 respectively, followed closely by January 1. Other times of the year show marked drops in the number of daily births, namely July 1, August 2, October 13, October 31 and November 11. These dates correspond to statutory or other holidays celebrated by most provinces and territories: New Year’s Day (January 1), Canada Day (July 1), the provincial holiday (first Monday in August, generally between August 1 and 7), Thanksgiving (second Monday in October, generally between October 8 and 14), Halloween (October 31), Remembrance Day (November 11) and Christmas (December 25). More recently (from 2012 to 2016), Christmas Day was almost always the day of the year with the lowest number of births. A reduction in hospital resources during these holidays may explain the lower number of births, given that some deliveries are planned.

In contrast, September was the month with the highest number of births during the period from 2001 to 2016. Specifically, September 24 was, on average, the day of the year with the highest number of births. September 16 and 20 were in second and third place for the year’s most popular day of birth. These three dates occur about 38 to 39 weeks after Christmas, and 37 to 38 weeks after New Year’s Day. In recent years (from 2012 to 2016), the number of births tended to peak in September, June and July.

Differences in the timing of births can also be observed through the day of the week. Over the past 16 years, there have been more births during the week (particularly from Tuesday to Friday) than on weekends (Saturday and Sunday). On average, there were 1,088 births per day from Tuesday to Friday and 975 births on Mondays. In comparison, there were, on average, 858 births per day on Saturdays and 792 births on Sundays. Since some births are scheduled in advance, such as planned Caesarean sections or births induced for medical reasons (e.g., a previous Caesarean section, preeclampsia, hypertension, diabetes, multiple pregnancy, more than 41 weeks of pregnancy), these births are more likely to occur between Monday and Friday, as hospitals have more human and technical resources during the week.^{Note 8 Note 9 Note 10 Note 11}

Total fertility rate

The total fertility rate refers to the number of children that a woman would have over the course of her reproductive life if she experienced the age-specific fertility rates observed in a particular calendar year. An advantage of the total fertility rate is that it is easily calculated and is not affected by variations in the size or age structure of the population, facilitating annual, provincial/territorial and international comparisons.

The cohort replacement level is 2.1 children per woman, i.e., the fertility level required to replace the population in the absence of migration, and taking into account mortality conditions between 0 and 15 years old, usually when the fertility period starts. In 1972, Canada’s total fertility rate fell below the cohort replacement level for the first time, reaching 1.97 children per woman.

Despite a general upward trend in the annual number of births since 2012, the total fertility rate has been declining since 2009. This seeming paradox is related to the fact that the total fertility rate is based on a compilation of the fertility experiences of several generations of women in a given year and treats it as if it was representative of one generation. The total fertility rate is influenced by fluctuations in the tempo of fertility (age of mother at childbirth) of current generations of women, many of whom are delaying childbearing to a later age. As for the number of births, it is impacted not only by fertility levels but also by the size and the growth of the actual female population in their childbearing ages.

The total fertility rate in Canada in 2012 was 1.62 children per woman, the same as in 2011. In 2013, the total fertility rate fell to 1.59 children per woman, then decreased further to 1.54 in 2016. The 2016 level is close to the lowest total fertility rate observed in Canadian history (1.51 children per woman in 2000 and 2002).

Many other industrialized countries also have fertility levels below the replacement level. Based on 2014 data from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) or the most recent available year, the lowest total fertility rates were in South Korea (1.21 children per woman), Portugal (1.23 children per woman), Poland (1.29 children per woman) and Greece (1.30 children per woman).^{Note 12} Japan, for its part, had a total fertility rate of 1.45 children per woman in 2015.^{Note 13} Closer to Canada, the United States had a total fertility rate of 1.82 children per woman in 2016.^{Note 14}

The most recent total fertility rate for the world as a whole was 2.5 children per woman in 2017.^{Note 15} This global rate masks great disparities among the regions studied. Among the continents, Africa had the highest rate, with 4.6 children per woman, compared with Europe which had a total fertility rate of 1.6 children per woman. There are a number of countries where the total fertility rate exceeds six children per woman, mostly African countries: Niger (7.3 children per woman), Chad and Somalia (6.4 children per woman), the Democratic Republic of Congo (6.3 children per woman) and Angola (6.2 children per woman).

Provincial/territorial variation

Since its creation in 1999, Nunavut has always had the highest total fertility rate in Canada, with an average of 2.93 children per woman between 2006 and 2016. The total fertility rate was 2.85 children per woman in 2012 and 2.99 children per woman in 2016. Among all jurisdictions, Nunavut is the only one to surpass the replacement level of generations since its foundation. The residents of Nunavut are predominantly Inuit and they have relatively high fertility.^{Note 16} Similarly, the Northwest Territories (1.94 children per woman in 2012 and 1.79 in 2016) and Yukon (1.69 children per woman in 2012 and 1.62 in 2016) often have a total fertility rate above that of Canada, partly because these territories have a higher percentage of Aboriginal population.

Provincially, the total fertility rate was above the Canadian level in the Prairie provinces: Saskatchewan (2.00 children per woman in 2012 and 1.93 in 2016), Manitoba (1.93 children per woman in 2012 and 1.85 in 2016) and Alberta (1.77 children per woman in 2012 and 1.69 in 2016), which, like the territories, average younger populations. Also similar to the territories, in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, a comparatively higher proportion of their populations have an Aboriginal identity, which contributes to their higher fertility level. In contrast, the total fertility rate in the Atlantic provinces—which have the oldest populations in Canada^{Note 17}—was below that of Canada, particularly in Newfoundland and Labrador (1.37 children per woman in 2012 and 1.42 in 2016). It was also lower in British Columbia (1.43 children per woman in 2012 and 1.40 in 2016) and in Ontario (1.55 children per woman in 2012 and 1.46 in 2016).

Age-specific fertility rates

The overall decrease in the total fertility rate in Canada over the past four decades is due to relatively steady declines in the age-specific fertility rates of all age groups under 30 years. In contrast, the fertility rates of those aged 30 and older have generally increased during this period.

The fertility rate for women aged 15 to 19 years has been steadily declining since its peak in 1959 (59.9 births per 1,000 women). In contrast, the fertility rate of women aged 40 to 44 years has been increasing since 1986, after reaching its lowest level on record (3.0 births per 1,000 women) in 1985. Over the past decade, the gap has narrowed between the fertility of older women (40- to 44-year-olds) and those at the beginning of their reproductive years (15 to 19 years). In 2013, fertility rates of these two age groups were similar, with 10.7 births per 1,000 women aged 40 to 44 years and 11.0 births per 1,000 women aged 15 to 19 years. Since then, the gap has widened such that the fertility rate of 40- to 44-year-old women exceeded that of women aged 15 to 19 years starting in 2014, a first in the history of Canadian fertility. The fertility rate was at 11.5 and 8.4 births per 1,000 women respectively in 2016.

Since 2005, the fertility rate for women aged 30 to 34 has surpassed that of women aged 25 to 29. The gap between these two age groups progressively widened during the 2012 to 2016 period, mostly as a result of the decreased fertility rate among women aged 25 to 29 since the rates among women aged 30 to 34 have stabilized since 2007. The fertility rate for women in their early thirties was 107.3 births per 1,000 women in 2012 and 107.6 in 2016, compared with 95.7 births per 1,000 women in 2012 and 87.6 in 2016 among women aged 25 to 29.

For the first time in 2010, the age-specific fertility rate for women aged 35 to 39 (51.7 births per 1,000 women) was higher than for women aged 20 to 24 (48.3 births per 1,000 women). By 2016, this gap had widened to 56.0 births and 37.6 births per 1,000 women in each age group, respectively.

Provincial/territorial variation

There were important variations in the fertility rates by age at the provincial/territorial level.

In Ontario, which has the highest number of births, the fertility rate of women aged 30 to 34 has been higher than the rate for women aged 25 to 29 years since 2001. This did not occur in Quebec until 2013. The most recent fertility rate of women in their thirties in Ontario was actually very close to that of women in Quebec, although the increase in recent years has been more modest for women in Ontario. However, there was a much greater difference between these two provinces in the fertility rate of women in their twenties.

The fertility rate of women aged 25 to 29 in Ontario was 85.9 births per 1,000 women in 2012 and 76.5 in 2016. It was considerably higher for women in the same age group in Quebec, at 111.7 births per 1,000 women in 2012 and 100.9 in 2016. The fertility rate was also slightly higher for women in their early twenties in Quebec (43.8 births per 1,000 women in 2012 and 38.7 in 2016) compared with women in the same age group in Ontario (35.8 births per 1,000 women in 2012 and 29.7 in 2016). In British Columbia, fertility rates variations have been similar to those in Ontario in the last 40 years. In addition to having fewer births overall, fertility rates by age group in British Columbia were generally lower than those in Ontario.

Overall, a large part of the difference in fertility levels between the provinces and territories between 2012 and 2016 was due to the fertility of women in their twenties. Across Canada, British Columbia had the lowest fertility rates for women in their twenties between 2012 and 2016, followed closely by Ontario; these rates have been declining for both provinces since the early 1990s. Alberta also registered a decline in the fertility rate of women in their twenties in the late 2000s, leading to a decrease in the total fertility rate for the province (from 1.90 children per woman in 2008 to 1.77 in 2012 and 1.69 in 2016). The lowest total fertility rate observed in Alberta over the last 43 years was 1.66 children per woman in 2000, still above that of Canada. Lastly, between 2012 and 2016, Manitoba and Saskatchewan posted some of the highest fertility rates for those under 35 years of age, along with Nunavut (under 30 years of age) and the Northwest Territories (under 25 years of age).

Age of mother at childbirth and birth order

In Canada, the average age of mothers^{Note 18} at childbirth has been increasing fairly steadily for the last 40 years, as successive generations of women have delayed childbearing to pursue educational and employment opportunities, among other factors. Easy access to effective contraceptive methods, diversification of conjugal life and changes in values ​​have also contributed to delaying entry into parenthood.^{Note 19} Since 2010, the average age of mothers at childbirth has been over 30 years, edging up to 30.3 years in 2012 and to 30.8 years in 2016, compared with 29.0 years in 2001. Moreover, fathers are generally older than mothers; for example, the average age of fathers at childbirth was 33.2 years in 2012 and 33.7 years in 2016.

Similarly, the average age at first birth (1st order) has been increasing since the late 1960s, reaching 28.7 years in Canada in 2012 and 29.2 years in 2016, compared with 27.3 years in 2001. The average age of fathers at the birth of their first child (1st order) was 31.6 years in 2012 and 32.2 years in 2016.

Provincial/territorial variation

Between 2012 and 2016, the average age of mothers at childbirth continued to increase in all provinces, with half of them reaching or surpassing the 30-year mark during this period: British Columbia (31.0 years in 2012 and 31.6 in 2016), Ontario (30.9 years in 2012 and 31.3 in 2016), Quebec (30.2 years in 2012 and 30.6 in 2016), Alberta (29.8 years in 2012 and 30.4 in 2016), and Prince Edward Island (29.5 years in 2012 and 30.0 in 2016). In both British Columbia and Ontario, the average age of mothers at birth has been over 30 years since 2004. Yukon was the only territory to reach the level of the provinces with an average age of mothers at childbirth over 30 (30.1 years in 2012 and 30.9 in 2016). The lowest average age of mothers at birth was in Nunavut (26.1 years in 2012 and 26.4 in 2016), followed by New Brunswick (28.5 years in 2012 and 29.1 in 2016), Saskatchewan (28.6 years in 2012 and 29.1 in 2016), the Northwest Territories (28.8 years in 2012 and 29.5 in 2016) and Newfoundland and Labrador (29.1 years in 2012 and 29.5 in 2016).

There was also variation in the average age of mothers at first birth across the provinces and territories. The highest average age of mothers at first birth was in British Columbia (29.6 years in 2012 and 30.3 in 2016), followed by Ontario (29.3 years in 2012 and 29.8 in 2016). The lowest average age of mothers at first birth was in Nunavut (22.6 years in 2012 and 22.4 in 2016).

Completed fertility rate of recent generations

While the total fertility rate is a common indicator for analyzing fertility trends because it is simple to calculate and it can summarize trends for a given calendar year, the completed fertility rate is a better indicator for understanding the changes in the fertility behaviours of different cohorts of women. The completed fertility rate is a longitudinal indicator that refers to the actual fertility experiences of cohorts of women once they have completed their reproductive life. The disadvantage of this indicator is that it is necessary to wait until the end of the reproductive life of the cohort of women to obtain all the data required for its calculation for a given cohort.

The completed fertility rate of women born up to 1967 can be calculated as they were aged 49 or older in 2016. It is also possible to estimate the completed fertility rate of the 1975 birth cohort, who were 41 years of age in 2016, since this generation is reaching the end of the reproductive ages and fertility rates after age 41 are quite low. Similarly, the fertility rates of the 1980 cohort, aged 36 in 2016, have also started to decline, since this generation has passed the age when fertility is at its peak. However, the estimated completed fertility rates for these two cohorts comprise a higher degree of uncertainty as a larger portion of their childbearing years is based on extrapolation of the recent trends based on fertility after age 30.

The age pattern of fertility among younger generations of women has changed compared with that of previous generations of women: the peak of the curve is lower than before, and appears later in reproductive life than in the past. This reflects both lower fertility as well as the older age at childbirth.

The first baby-boom cohort, that is, women born in 1946, is often used as a reference group, given that it was the last cohort to have reached cohort fertility above the replacement level. The 1946 cohort fertility rate peaked at age 24 with 163.8 births per 1,000 women. In contrast, the fertility for the cohort born in 1980 peaked at a higher age (29 years), with approximately 119.0 births per 1,000 women. Even though younger cohorts have higher fertility rates in their thirties, their general fertility remains below older cohorts because they cannot catch up for the lower fertility rates observed in their twenties.

The completed fertility rate of the cohort of women born in 1967 in Canada was 1.79 children per woman. This rate is similar to the cohorts born in the mid-1950s, but much lower than its peak of 3.40 children per woman in the 1930 birth cohort, who were the mothers of the baby boom generations.

Trends in childlessness

Based on data from the General Social Survey on Families, the biological childlessness has been steady between 1990 and 2011. The percentage of women aged 50 and older who have never given birth to a child was 14.1% in 1990, compared with 15.3% in 2011. Women who have not had a biological child might create families by other means, such as adoption, step-parenthood or surrogacy.

According to a special compilation of data from the 2011 General Social Survey on the Family,^{Note 20} adults aged 20 to 39 years may choose to not have children for many possible reasons. The intention to never have children was higher among single individuals compared with those who were married or in a common-law relationship. The proportion was also higher among men, among those with no religious affiliation, and among those born in Canada. Of the Canadians aged 20 to 39 years who reported that they did not plan to have children,^{Note 21} a majority mentioned that they made this decision by personal choice. Financial reasons, not having a spouse or partner, and reasons related to work or health are among other answers supporting their intention to not have children.

Multiple births

The vast majority of births in 2016 were single births (96.9%), but around 12,000 births consisted of twins (3.0% of all births) and triplets or more (0.1% of all births).^{Note 22} These proportions have been quite stable since 2006, but are higher than those observed in 1991. This increase is seen across all age groups of mothers. For example, among women aged 25 to 29 years, 2.7% of all births in 2016 were multiple births, up from 2.1% in 1991. The older the age group, the bigger the difference, meaning that multiple births increased more among older women. For example, 4.0% of women aged 35 to 39 who gave birth in 2016 had twins or more, compared with 2.4% in 1991. These proportions were 5.0% and 2.0%, respectively, among women aged 40 to 44 years, and 15.9% and 2.9% among women 45 years or older.

Older motherhood is evident not only in the variations of the age distribution of mothers who had single births, but also for multiple births. The share of multiple births has fallen for women aged 29 years or less, but has risen among women 30 years and older. For example, in 2016, among women who gave birth to twins, the proportion of women aged 35 to 39 years was 23.1%, compared with 9.8% 25 years earlier. Among women who had twins, the proportion aged 40 to 44 years also rose from 1.0% to 5.6%. In contrast, among the women who had twins, the proportion of those in their late twenties fell from 38.0% in 1991 to 24.4% in 2016. The trends for triplets or more were similar. A number of factors could contribute to the increase in multiple births among women 30 years or older, including postponing motherhood to a later age and increased use of fertility treatments, which increase the overall likelihood of multiple births.

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