Annual Demographic Estimates: Canada, Provinces and Territories, 2019
Analysis: Population by age and sex

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This section presents an analysis of the population estimates by age and sex for Canada, the provinces and territories on July 1, 2019, compared with July 1 estimates in previous years.

Canada’s population aging is fuelled by the advancing age of baby boomers

Population aging represents one of the major changes associated with Canada’s age-sex structure, and it continues to shape Canada’s society and economy. It is the result of baby boomers (born between 1946 and 1965) reaching more advanced ages, combined with a fertility rate below the replacement level (2.1 children per woman) since 1972^Note  and a long-term increase in life expectancy for both men and women.^Note 

The population pyramid opposite (Figure 2.1) shows the aging of Canada’s population in recent decades by comparing the age-sex structure of the Canadian population on July 1 of the years 1999 and 2019. On July 1, 1999, baby boomers were in their 30s, 40s and early 50s, as can be seen in the bulge in the pyramid at these ages. On July 1, 2019, individuals in the baby boom generation were between 53 and 73 years of age, as illustrated by the upward shift in the largest bulge in the pyramid observed 20 years earlier. Therefore, the number of people aged 53 and over was proportionally higher in 2019 (34.3%) than in 1999 (23.7%). In contrast, the number of younger people, particularly people in their 30s and early 40s, as well as individuals aged 0 to 19, has proportionally decreased.

More than 10,000 centenarians in Canada for the first time

On July 1, 2019, preliminary estimates indicate that there were 10,795 centenarians in Canada. Topping 10,000 for the first time, the number of centenarians in Canada is constantly growing as a result of increased life expectancy.

Since 2001,^Note  the number of centenarians has more than tripled. In the latest annual period, the growth rate of centenarians was 8.7%, or about six times the growth rate for the entire population (1.4%). Population growth of centenarians was greater than that of each five-year age group of the population.

In relative numbers, there were 29 centenarians per 100,000 population in Canada. In 2001, the proportion was 11 centenarians per 100,000 population. Because women have a higher life expectancy than men, the vast majority of centenarians were women (82.0%).

Like Canada, most industrialized countries are currently experiencing a rapid increase in the number of centenarians. Although Canada is among the countries with the highest proportion of centenarians, their population share is even greater in other parts of the world. For example, in Japan, which has one of the oldest populations in the world, there were about 56 centenarians per 100,000 population in March 2019.^Note  The other G7 countries had a ratio equal to or less than Canada’s, although it is on the rise.

Canada remains younger than most G7 countries

Population aging is a widespread phenomenon in the whole world, and is currently more important in the industrialized countries. In recent years, the proportion of persons aged 65 and older has increased in every G7 country. Of these countries, Canada has the second-lowest proportion of persons aged 65 and older (17.5%), just behind the United States,^Note  with 16%.^Note  Conversely, Japan’s population is among the oldest in the world, with the highest proportion of persons aged 65 and older among the G7 countries (28%), or almost 3 out of 10 people.

The proportion of children aged 0 to 14 is higher in Canada (16.0%) than in Japan (12%), Germany and Italy (13% each). A usually higher fertility rate in Canada than in these countries is the main reason why Canada has a higher proportion of children aged 0 to 14 years.^Note  However, the proportion of children is lower in Canada than in the United States (19%), France and the United Kingdom (18% each), where the fertility rate is higher than in Canada, though below the replacement level in the last decade.

Moreover, Canada is the G7 country with the largest proportion of working-age people; two-thirds of its population (66.5%) is in the 15-to-64 age group. Japan has the lowest proportion in the G7 (60%). The fact that the baby boom was greater in Canada than in most other G7 countries explains why it has the highest proportion of people in this age group.^Note  As all Canadian baby boomers turn 65, the proportion of the working-age population in Canada should move closer to the levels observed among other G7 countries.

The gap widens between children and seniors

Since 2011, baby boomers have played a significant role in the increase in the number of people aged 65 and older. In fact, people aged 65 and older outnumbered children aged 0 to 14 between July 1, 2015, and July 1, 2016. During the last annual period, the gap between these two age groups continued to widen. On July 1, 2019, a record number of Canadians—6,592,611, or more than 1 in 6 people (17.5%)—was at least 65 years of age.

By comparison, there were 6,014,289 children aged 0 to 14 (16.0%) in Canada. This number is increasing, but since the number of seniors is growing faster than the number of children, the population share of children has decreased in recent years. By comparison, prior to 1987, there were two to three times more children aged 0 to 14 than people aged 65 and older. According to the medium growth (M1) scenario in the most recent population projections,^Note  the proportion of people aged 65 and older should reach 20% in 2025 and 25% in 2059, while the proportion of children aged 0 to 14 should remain relatively stable at around 15% to 16% over the same period.

Moreover, during the last annual period, the growth rate of the 65-and-over group was 3.7%, more than double the growth rate of the population as a whole (1.4%). Children aged 0 to 14 had a growth rate of 0.8% in the last annual period. Since the beginning of the period covered by the current demographic accounting system (1971), the population growth rate for children has always remained lower than that of seniors, thereby contributing to population aging.

Children still outnumber seniors in the Prairies and the territories

Population aging affects all regions of the country; however, this process is playing out at an unequal pace, and certain provinces are aging faster than others. Consequently, the proportion of people aged 65 and older and that of children aged 0 to 14 varies significantly from east to west and from north to south.

In Canada’s eastern and central provinces and in British Columbia, the proportion of people 65 years and older was higher than the proportion of children 0 to 14 years on July 1, 2019. However, the Prairie provinces and the territories had a higher proportion of children aged 0 to 14 than people 65 years and older. In 2009, Nova Scotia and New Brunswick were the top two provinces where the proportion of people aged 65 and older exceeded that of children aged 0 to 14.

On July 1, 2019, Newfoundland and Labrador had the highest proportion of people aged 65 and older (21.5%). This is the first time that this province has topped this list; over the past decade, Nova Scotia and New Brunswick have successively held the top spot. Conversely, Alberta (13.3%) had the lowest proportion of people aged 65 years and older among the provinces. As for the proportion of children aged 0 to 14, the highest was observed in Saskatchewan (19.6%) and the lowest in Newfoundland and Labrador (13.7%). These gaps are due to differences in the fertility rate between these two provinces.

The age structure of the population of the territories differs from that of the provinces. Higher fertility^Note  and mortality^Note  explain why the population share of children is especially larger than that of seniors. Nunavut stood out in particular, with children aged 0 to 14 making up 31.8% of the population and a low proportion of people aged 65 and older (4.0%).

For the first time, baby-boomers make up the majority of seniors

The demographic composition of the 65-and-older age group is changing rapidly. Before 2011, there were no members of the baby boom generation in this group. Since 2011, as the first baby boomers started turning 65, growth of this group has clearly accelerated. Consequently, as of July 1, 2019, baby boomers now make up the majority (51.1%) of seniors for the first time.

Inevitably, the baby boom cohorts are aging. Moreover, more than one third of baby boomers (35.7%) were 65 and older in 2019, compared with 31.0% in 2018. In 2031, the last of the baby boomers will have turned 65.

Canada has one child or senior for every two working-age people

The demographic dependency ratio represents the number of children (0 to 14 years) and seniors (65 years and older) per 100 working-age people (15 to 64 years). On July 1, 2019, the ratio was 50.5. This indicator has been rising steadily since reaching a record low in 2007 (44.0). This is the first time since 1977 that the demographic dependency ratio has passed the symbolic cap of 50, meaning that the ratio between the number of adults and the combined number of children and seniors is now less than 2 to 1. It will continue to rise until 2031 and even beyond. According to the medium growth (M1) scenario in the most recent population projections, the demographic dependency ratio should be 61.0 in 2031.

Given their numbers, baby boomers have always had a tangible impact on the demographic dependency ratio. In 1971, the beginning of the period covered by the current demographic accounting system, a good number of baby boomers were still children. At that time, the demographic dependency ratio was 59.5. However, as the baby boomers reached adulthood, that ratio gradually dropped and remained low from 1980 to 2011, while all members of this generation were of working age. The recent increase in the demographic dependency ratio is explained by the baby boomers turning 65.

In the 1970s, the demographic dependency ratio was mainly influenced by the high number of children. As the population aged, the contribution of seniors gradually increased over time. Thus, in 1971, children (aged 0 to 14) represented 78.5% of the non-working-age population, compared with 47.7% in 2019.

The number of people aged 55 to 64 exceeds those aged 15 to 24 years

Generally speaking, individuals aged 15 to 24 years have recently, or are about to enter the labour market for the first time. In contrast, people aged 55 to 64 are often on the cusp of, or in retirement. On July 1, 2019, there was less than one labour market potential entrant (0.9) for each person potentially leaving. By comparison, in 1984, Canada had two people aged 15 to 24 per person aged 55 to 64. Subsequent years were marked by a steady decrease in this ratio, such that starting in 2013, the number of people potentially leaving outnumbered the number of those potentially entering the labour market.

The demographic dependency ratio of the provinces and territories sometimes influenced by younger populations, sometimes by older populations

The demographic dependency ratio and its composition vary considerably from one province and territory to another. In 2019, the Atlantic provinces and Quebec had a higher dependency ratio than Canada (50.5) as a result of an increasing number of people aged 65 and older. Moreover, the demographic dependency ratio was also higher than that of the country in Manitoba (52.8) and in Saskatchewan (54.6). This situation was mainly due to the high proportion of children aged 0 to 14. Lastly, Nunavut (55.8) had the highest demographic dependency ratio among all provinces and territories, almost exclusively because of its high proportion of children aged 0 to 14.

Population aging among women higher because of low female mortality

The main population aging indicators are all higher for females. On July 1, 2019, the proportion of women 65 and older (18.8%) was higher than the corresponding proportion of men (16.2%). The median age was also higher for women (41.8 years) than for men (39.7 years). Furthermore, the centenarian group was comprised mostly of women (82.0%). These differences are mainly due to the fact that women, at all ages, have lower mortality levels than men. These mortality levels create a persistent yet narrowing gap in life expectancy in favour of females. The most recent data (2015 to 2017) show that the life expectancy at birth of females was 84.0 years, compared with 79.9 years for males, with females living an average of 4.1 years longer than males. Twenty years earlier, this same gap was 5.7 years.^Note 

One in two Canadians is at least 40 years of age

In 2019, 1 in 2 Canadians was at least 40.8 years. The median age^Note  has increased by 4.4 years since 1999, when it was 36.4 years.

Median age varies considerably from province to province. On July 1, 2019, there was a difference of 10.0 years between the province with the highest median age (47.1 years in Newfoundland and Labrador) and the province with the lowest median age (37.1 years in Alberta). Taking the territories into consideration, Nunavut had the lowest median age at 26.2 years.

In 1999, the differences between the provinces were much smaller, with a gap of 3.4 years. The highest median age was in Quebec (37.6 years) and the lowest in Alberta (34.2 years).

The situation in Newfoundland and Labrador indicates an especially rapid aging of its population. In just a little over 10 years, the median age in the province went from the lowest (31.8 in 1993) to the highest (40.7 years in 2005) in the country. During this period, Newfoundland and Labrador experienced negative population growth. The main contributing factor is the departure of many young adults to other provinces and territories. Consequently, the province registered fewer births.

Conversely, the Prairie provinces now top the list of the youngest provinces. This is mainly due to a higher proportion of Aboriginal people (Manitoba, Saskatchewan),^Note  a younger population with higher fertility rates, and to higher migration of young adults and families from other provinces and countries (Alberta).

Women outnumber men slightly

On July 1, 2019, the sex ratio for the Canadian population as a whole was estimated at 98.8 males per 100 females. This ratio has changed very little over the last 20 years, with 98.0 males per 100 females observed in 1999. Males outnumber females in ages 0 to 36 years, mainly because of the sex ratio at birth, which averages 105 males per 100 females. When people reach their early 60s, the number of men starts to fall significantly below the number of women because of excess mortality among males. This gap widens at more advanced ages: in the 65-to-79 age group, there were an estimated 91.8 males per 100 females on July 1, 2019. However, the gap between the sexes seems to be narrowing. Twenty years ago, the sex ratio for people aged 65 to 79 was 82.8. In the population aged 80 and older, a sex ratio of 67.1 men per 100 females was estimated on July 1, 2019, compared with a sex ratio of 51.1 on July 1, 1999. Centenarians were predominantly female with a ratio of 21.9 males per 100 females.

The sex ratio differs from one province and territory to another

There are some regional differences in the sex structure in Canada. On July 1, 2019, the province with the lowest sex ratio in the country was Nova Scotia, with 95.9 males per 100 females, and the highest sex ratio was in Saskatchewan (101.5 males per 100 females). The sex ratios in the Atlantic provinces were below the national average (98.8 males per 100 females), while in the Prairie provinces, they were all higher. Among other factors, this situation can be attributed to differences in the aging of Canada’s regions: a younger population is usually a slightly more masculine population, and an older population is usually a more feminine population.

In 2019, males outnumbered females in all the territories because they are home to younger populations than elsewhere in Canada. The main differences between the sex structure in the territories and in Canada as a whole are at higher ages. At age 65 and older, Yukon and the Northwest Territories had 108.8 and 109.6 males per 100 females, respectively, compared with 85.0 males per 100 females nationally. In Nunavut, it was even higher, with 114.7 males per 100 females.

Mobile individuals are much younger than the entire population

The population pyramid opposite highlights the differences in the age-sex structure of interprovincial migrants, new immigrants, non-permanent residents and the total population.^Note  On July 1, 2019, the proportion of the working-age population (aged 15 to 64) was considerably higher among immigrants (77.7%), interprovincial migrants (77.0%) and non-permanent residents (95.1%). These subgroups also had a high concentration of young adults. A majority of non-permanent residents (60.9%) were between 18 and 29 years of age. Immigrants were slightly older and less concentrated in some age groups, since 62.7% were in the 20-to-44 group. Lastly, 54.5% of interprovincial migrants were aged 20 to 44. Similarly, the median age of interprovincial migrants (31.0 years), non-permanent residents (25.6 years) and immigrants (30.7 years) was lower compared to the entire population (40.8 years) on July 1, 2019.

Immigrants stood out for having a population share of children aged 0 to 14 (17.6%) slightly higher than the total Canadian population (16.0%). By comparison, in 2019, 4.4% of non-permanent residents were in the 0-to-14 age group. The distinct age structure of non-permanent residents is mostly due to the fact that these people come to Canada mainly for the purpose of work or study, which mostly involves young adults and applies less to children.

Females slightly outnumber males among immigrants, contrary to non-permanent residents

The sex structure also differs between each of the three subgroups. Males were slightly underrepresented among immigrants (96.0 males per 100 females) but were overrepresented among non-permanent residents (132.7 males per 100 females), and to a lesser degree, among interprovincial migrants (102.4 males per 100 females). By comparison, the sex ratio for the entire Canadian population is almost equal, with 98.8 males per 100 females.

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