Annual Demographic Estimates: Canada, Provinces and Territories, 2018
Analysis: Population by age and sex

This section presents an analysis of the population estimates by age and sex for Canada, the provinces and territories on July 1, 2018, compared with July 1 estimates in previous years.

Canada’s population aging is fuelled by the advancing age of baby boomers

Population aging represents one of the major changes associated with Canada’s age-sex structure, and it continues to shape the transformation of the country’s population. It is the result of baby boomers (born between 1946 and 1965) reaching more advanced ages, combined with a fertility rate below the replacement level (2.1 children per woman) since 1972^{Note 1} and an increase in life expectancy for both men and women.^{Note 2}

The age pyramid opposite shows the aging of Canada’s population in recent decades by comparing the age-sex structure of the population on July 1 in 1998 and 2018. On July 1, 1998, baby boomers were in their 30s, 40s and early 50s, as can be seen in the bulge in the pyramid at these ages. On July 1, 2018, individuals in the baby boom generation were between 52 and 72 years of age, as illustrated by the upward shift in the largest bulge in the pyramid observed 20 years earlier. Therefore, the number of people aged 52 and over was proportionally higher in 2018 (35.5%) than in 1998 (24.5%). In contrast, the number of younger people, particularly people in their 30s and early 40s, as well as individuals aged 0 to 19, has proportionally decreased.

Canada remains younger than most G7 countries

Population aging is a widespread phenomenon in the whole world, and is currently more important in the industrialized countries. In recent years, the proportion of persons aged 65 and older has increased in every G7 country. Of these countries, Canada has the second-lowest proportion of persons aged 65 and older (17.2%), just behind the United States,^{Note 3} with 15%.^{Note 4} Conversely, Japan’s population is among the oldest in the world, with the highest proportion of persons aged 65 and older among the G7 countries (28%), or just over one in four people.

The proportion of children aged 0 to 14 is higher in Canada (16.1%) than in Japan (12%), Germany and Italy (13% each). A higher fertility rate in Canada than in these countries^{Note 5} is the main reason why Canada has a higher proportion of children aged 0 to 14 years.^{Note 6} However, the proportion of children is lower in Canada than in the United States (19%), France and the United Kingdom (18% each), where the fertility rate is higher than in Canada, though below the replacement level in the last decade.

Moreover, Canada is the G7 country with the largest proportion of working-age people; two-thirds of its population (66.7%) is in the 15-to-64 age group. Japan has the lowest proportion in the G7 (60%). The fact that the baby boom was greater in Canada than in most other G7 countries explains why it has the highest proportion of people in this age group.^{Note 7} As all Canadian baby boomers turn 65, the proportion of the working-age population in Canada should move closer to the levels observed in the other G7 countries.

The gap widens between children and seniors

Since 2011, baby boomers have played a significant role in the increase in the number of people aged 65 and older. In fact, people aged 65 and older outnumbered children under 15 years between July 1, 2015, and July 1, 2016. In the last annual period, the difference between the number of people in these two age groups increased. On July 1, 2018, a record number of Canadians—6,358,220, or more than one out of six people (17.2%)—was at least 65 years of age, compared with 5,972,733 children aged 0 to 14 (16.1%). In other words, there were an additional 385,487 people in the 65-and-older age group than in the 0-to-14 group. By comparison, prior to 1987, there were two to three times more children aged 0 to 14 than people aged 65 and older.

According to the medium growth (M1) scenario in the most recent population projections, the proportion of people 65 and older should continue to grow, increasingly widening the gap with the proportion of children aged 0 to 14.^{Note 8} The proportion of people aged 65 and older should reach 20% in 2024 and 25% in 2055, while the proportion of children aged 0 to 14 should remain stable at around 15% to 16% over the same period. Thus, the proportion of working-age people (aged 15 to 64) should decline over the next few decades. It is currently estimated at 66.7% and is expected to fall below 60% in 2051.

In the latest annual period, the growth rate of the 65-and-older population was 3.6%, or about two-and-a-half times the growth rate for the entire population (1.4%). Children aged 0 to 14 had a growth rate of 1.0% in the last annual period. While this group grew by 1.0% on average in the last three years, which has not been seen since the end of the echo boom generation (1989 to 1992),^{Note 9} its growth rate is still lower than that of the 65-and-older age group, thereby contributing to population aging.

Children still outnumber seniors in the Prairies and the territories

At the provincial and territorial level, the number of people 65 years and older and the number of children 0 to 14 years vary widely. In Canada’s eastern and central provinces and in British Columbia, the number of people 65 years and older was higher than the number of children 0 to 14 years on July 1, 2018. However, the Prairie provinces and the territories had more children aged 0 to 14 than people 65 years and older. In 2009, Nova Scotia and New Brunswick were the top two provinces where the number of people aged 65 and older exceeded that of children aged 0 to 14.

On July 1, 2018, New Brunswick had the highest proportion of people aged 65 and older (20.8%) among the provinces, and Alberta the lowest (12.8%). Moreover, the highest proportion of children aged 0 to 14 years was observed in Saskatchewan (19.6%) and the lowest in Newfoundland and Labrador (13.9%). The last finding is explained by, amongst other things, higher fertility in Saskatchewan than in Newfoundland and Labrador.

The situation in the territories is unique, in that the populations are considerably younger than in the rest of Canada, with fertility levels among the highest in the country.^{Note 10} Nunavut stood out in particular, with children aged 0 to 14 making up 31.8% of the population, while people aged 65 and older represented 3.9% of the population.

Currently, almost half of all seniors are baby boomers

Both the proportion of people aged 65 and older and the annual growth of this age group have been increasing rapidly since the start of the decade, specifically since 2011 when the first baby boomers turned 65. On July 1, 2018, almost one in two people aged 65 or older (46.3%) was a baby boomer, compared with 41.3% in 2017. This proportion is rising quickly.

Moreover, nearly one-third of baby boomers (31.0%) were 65 and older in 2018, compared with 26.5% in 2017. In 2031, the last of the baby boomers will have turned 65.

Canada has one child or senior for every two working-age people

The demographic dependency ratio represents the number of children (0 to 14 years) and seniors (65 years and older) per 100 working-age people (15 to 64 years). On July 1, 2018, the ratio was 49.9. This indicator has been rising steadily since 2009 (44.1), and more prominently since 2011 (44.6) when the first baby boomers started turning 65. It will continue to rise until 2031 and even beyond. According to the medium growth (M1) scenario in the most recent population projections, the demographic dependency ratio should be 64.2 in 2031.

The current trend in the demographic dependency ratio is the opposite of what was observed in the 1970s. Between 1971 (the beginning of the period covered by the current demographic accounting system) and 1986, the demographic dependency ratio fell from 59.5 to 46.0. This phenomenon was also due to the baby boom, people born over this period having successively turned 15 years old from 1961 to 1980. Canada has therefore seen years when the demographic dependency ratio was much higher than in 2018. The main difference lies in its age composition: in 1971, children (aged 0 to 14) represented 78.5% of the non-working-age population, compared with 48.4% in 2018.

The demographic dependency ratio recorded in 2018 (49.9) was the highest since 1978, when Canada had 49.3 children or seniors per 100 working-age people. Since 1978, the demographic dependency ratio has remained below 50, at a relatively stable level, because the majority of baby boomers have been of working age.

The number of people aged 55 to 64 exceeds those aged 15 to 24 years

Generally speaking, individuals aged 15 to 24 years have recently, or are about to enter the labour market for the first time. In contrast, people aged 55 to 64 are often on the cusp of, or in retirement. On July 1, 2018, there was less than one labour market potential entrant (0.9) for each person potentially leaving. By comparison, in 1984, Canada had two people aged 15 to 24 per person aged 55 to 64. Subsequent years were marked by a steady decrease in this ratio, such that starting in 2013, the number of people potentially leaving outnumbered the number of those potentially entering the labour market. According to the most recent population projections, this ratio should remain stable in the coming decades.

A generally younger population from Central to Western Canada and in the territories

The demographic dependency ratio by province and territory differs from one jurisdiction to another. In 2018, the Atlantic provinces and Quebec had a higher dependency ratio than the national average (49.9) due to a high proportion of people aged 65 and older. Manitoba and Saskatchewan also exceeded the national dependency ratio with 52.2 and 53.8 respectively. This was mainly due to high proportion of children aged 0 to 14 years. Among the provinces, the only exception was Alberta, which had not only a lower dependency ratio (46.5) than the Canadian average, but also a larger proportion of children aged 0 to 14 (18.9%), reflecting a younger population overall. A similar situation was noted in Yukon (40.1) and the Northwest Territories (39.5). At the other end of the spectrum, Nunavut had 49.4 children aged 0 to 14 per 100 working-age people, and only 6.0 people aged 65 and older per 100 people aged 15 to 64.

The number of centenarians continues to grow

Because of increased life expectancy and population aging, more and more Canadians are reaching the age of 100. On July 1, 2018, preliminary estimates indicate that there were 9,968 centenarians in Canada, or 26.9 per 100,000 population. In 2001,^{Note 11} the proportion was 11.4 centenarians per 100,000 population. By comparison, in Japan, which has one of the oldest populations in the world, there were about 56 centenarians per 100,000 population in May 2018.^{Note 12}

Low female mortality is a factor in population aging

The main population aging indicators are all higher for females. On July 1, 2018, the proportion of women 65 and older (18.5%) was higher than the corresponding proportion of men (15.8%). The median age was also higher for women (41.8 years) than for men (39.7 years). Furthermore, the centenarian group was still comprised mostly of women (82.2%). These differences are mainly due to the fact that women, at all ages, have lower mortality levels than men. These mortality levels create a persistent, yet narrowing gap in life expectancy in favour of females. The most recent data (2014-2016) show that the life expectancy at birth of females was 84.0 years, compared with 79.9 years for males, with females living an average of 4.1 years longer than males. Twenty years earlier, this gap was 5.8 years.^{Note 13}

One in two Canadians is at least 40 years of age

In 2018, one out of two Canadians was at least 40.8 years. The median age^{Note 14} has increased by just over 10 years since 1984, when it was 30.6 years.

Median age varies considerably from province to province. On July 1, 2018, there was a difference of 9.6 years between the province with the highest median age (46.5 years in Newfoundland and Labrador) and the lowest median age (36.9 years in Alberta). Taken the territories into consideration, Nunavut had the lowest median age at 26.1 years.

In 1998, the differences between the provinces were much smaller, with a gap of 3.2 years. The highest median age was in Quebec (37.1 years) and the lowest in Alberta (33.9 years).

The situation in Newfoundland and Labrador indicates an especially rapid aging of its population. Between 1993 and 2005, it province went from having the lowest median age (31.8 years) to the highest (40.7 years). During this period, Newfoundland and Labrador experienced negative population growth. The main contributing factor is the departure of many young adults to other provinces and territories. Consequently, the province registered fewer births.

Conversely, the Prairie provinces now top the list of the youngest provinces. This is mainly on account of a higher proportion of Aboriginal people (Manitoba, Saskatchewan),^{Note 15} younger populations with higher fertility rates, and more young adults and families moving from other provinces and countries (Alberta).

Women outnumber men slightly

On July 1, 2018, the sex ratio for the entire Canadian population was estimated at 98.6 males per 100 females. This ratio has changed very little over the last 20 years, with 98.0 males per 100 females observed in 1998. Males outnumber females in ages 0 to 34 years, mainly because of the sex ratio at birth, which averages 105 males per 100 females. When people reach their early-60s, the number of men starts to fall significantly below the number of women because of excess mortality among males. This gap widens at more advanced ages: in the 65-to-79 age group, there were an estimated 91.8 males per 100 females on July 1, 2018. However, the gap between the sexes seems to be narrowing. Twenty years ago, for every 100 females aged 65 to 79, there were 82.1 males. In the population aged 80 and older, there were an estimated 66.2 males per 100 females on July 1, 2018, compared with 51.3 males per 100 females on July 1, 1998. The estimate for centenarians in 2018 was 21.6 males per 100 females.

The sex ratio varies from one province and territory to another

There are some regional differences in the sex structure in Canada. On July 1, 2018, the lowest sex ratio in the country was in Nova Scotia, with 95.8 males per 100 females, and the highest was in Saskatchewan (101.6 males per 100 females). The sex ratios in the Atlantic provinces were below the national average (98.6 males per 100 females), while in the Prairie provinces, they were all higher. Among other factors, this situation can be attributed to differences in the aging of Canada's regions: a younger population is usually a more masculine population, and an older population is usually a more feminine population.

In 2018, males outnumbered females in all the territories. The main differences between the sex structure in the territories and in Canada as a whole are at higher ages. At age 50 and older, Yukon and the Northwest Territories had 105.0 and 112.0 males per 100 females, respectively, compared with 92.0 males per 100 females nationally. In Nunavut, it was even higher, with 113.7 males per 100 females.

Mobile individuals are much younger than the entire population

The age pyramid opposite highlights the differences in the age-sex structure of interprovincial migrants, immigrants, non-permanent residents and the total population.^{Note 16} On July 1, 2018, the proportion of the working-age population (aged 15 to 64) was considerably higher among immigrants (78.2%), interprovincial migrants (77.5%) and non-permanent residents (95.4%). These subgroups also had a high concentration of young adults. A majority of non-permanent residents (61.0%) were between 18 and 29 years of age. Immigrants were slightly older and less concentrated in some age groups, since 57.3% were in the 25-to-44 group. Lastly, 54.9% of interprovincial migrants were aged 20 to 44. Similarly, the median age of interprovincial migrants (31.0 years), non-permanent residents (25.5 years) and immigrants (30.6 years) was below the national level (40.8 years) on July 1, 2018.

Immigrants stood out for having a higher proportion of children under 15 years of age (18.3%) than the total Canadian population (16.1%). However, the proportion of immigrant children aged 0 to 14 was down from the previous year (20.0%). By comparison, in 2018, 4.2% of non-permanent residents were in the 0-to-14 age group. The distinct age structure of non-permanent residents is mostly due to the fact that these people come to Canada mainly for the purpose of work or study, which mostly involves young adults and applies less to children.

Females slightly outnumber males among immigrants, contrary to non-permanent residents

The sex structure of the three subgroups also differs. Males were slightly underrepresented among immigrants (98.4 males per 100 females), but were significantly overrepresented among non-permanent residents (132.6 males per 100 females) and to a lesser degree, among interprovincial migrants (102.8 males per 100 females). By comparison, the sex ratio for the entire Canadian population is almost equal, with 98.6 males per 100 females. More careful analysis of the sex ratio in each subgroup by age reveals that men are generally overrepresented among interprovincial migrants under 62 years of age,^{Note 17} among immigrants under 19 years as well as those aged 32 to 52 years, and among non-permanent residents of all ages, with some exceptions.

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