Annual Demographic Estimates: Canada, Provinces and Territories
Analysis: Population by age and sex

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This section presents an analysis of population estimates by age and sex for Canada, the provinces and territories on July 1, 2017, compared with July 1 in previous years.

Baby boomers accelerate the aging of Canada’s population

Population aging represents one of the major changes associated with Canada’s age-sex structure, and it continues to shape the transformation of the country’s population. This phenomenon is the result of baby boomers (born between 1946 and 1965) reaching more advanced ages, combined with a fertility rate below the replacement level (2.1 children per woman) since 1972^{Note 1} and an increase in life expectancy for both men and women.

The age pyramid opposite shows the aging of Canada’s population in recent decades by comparing the age-sex structure of the Canadian population on July 1 of the years 1997 and 2017. On July 1, 1997, baby boomers were in their 30s to early 50s, as can be seen in the bulge in the pyramid at these ages. On July 1, 2017, individuals in the baby-boom generation were between 51 and 71 years of age, as illustrated by the upward shift in the largest bulge in the pyramid observed 20 years earlier. Therefore, the number of people aged 51 years and over was proportionally higher in 2017 than in 1997. However, the number of younger people, particularly people in their 30s and early 40s, as well as individuals aged 0 to 19 years, has proportionally decreased.

Despite widespread aging, Canada remains younger than most G7 countries

Population aging is a widespread phenomenon in the industrialized world. In recent years, the proportion of persons aged 65 and older has increased in every G7 country. Of these countries, Canada has the second-lowest proportion of persons aged 65 years and older (16.9%), just behind the United States, with 15%.^{Note 2} Conversely, Japan’s population is among the oldest in the world, with the highest proportion of persons aged 65 years and older among the G7 countries (28%), or just over one in four people.

The proportion of children aged 0 to 14 years is higher in Canada (16.0%) than in Japan (12%), Germany (13%) and Italy (14%). A higher fertility rate in Canada than in these three countries is the main reason why Canada has proportionally more children aged 0 to 14.^{Note 3} However, the proportion of children is lower in Canada than in the United States (19%), France (18%) and the United Kingdom (18%), where the fertility rate is closer to the replacement level.

Moreover, among the G7 countries, Canada has the largest proportion of working-age people, with 67.1% of its population in the 15-to-64 age group. Japan has the lowest proportion in the G7 (60%). The fact that the baby boom was greater in Canada than in most other G7 countries explains why it has the highest proportion of people in this age group. As all Canadian baby boomers turn 65, the proportion of the working-age population in Canada will move closer to the levels observed in the other G7 countries.

The gap widens between people aged 0 to 14 and those 65 years and older

Since 2011, baby boomers have played a significant role in the increase in the number of people aged 65 and older. In 2015, population estimates showed that Canada had more people aged 65 and older than children aged 0 to 14. During the last annual period, the gap between these two age groups widened. On July 1, 2017, a record number of Canadians— 6,195,544, or more than one out of six people (16.9%)—was at least 65 years of age, compared with 5,877,081 children aged 0 to 14 (16.0%). In other words, there were an additional 318,463 people in the 65-and-older age group than in the 0-to-14 group. By comparison, prior to 1987, there were two to three times more children aged 0 to 14 than people aged 65 and older.

According to the medium growth (M1) scenario in the most recent population projections, the proportion of people 65 and older should continue to grow, increasingly widening the gap with the proportion of children aged 0 to 14.^{Note 4} The proportion of people aged 65 years and older should reach 20% in 2023 and 25% in 2047, while the proportion of children aged 0 to 14 should remain stable at around 15% to 16% over the same period. Thus, the proportion of working-age people (aged 15 to 64) should decline. It is currently estimated at 67.1% and is expected to fall below 60% in 2056.

In the latest annual period, the growth rate of the 65-and-older population was 3.4%, or about three times the growth rate for the entire population (1.2%). Children aged 0 to 14 had a growth rate of 1.1% in the last annual period. While this group grew by more than 1.0% in the last two annual periods, which has not been seen since the end of the echo boom generation (1989 to 1992),^{Note 5} its growth rate is still lower than that of the 65-and-older age group, thereby contributing to population aging.

Two out of five seniors are baby boomers

Both the proportion of people aged 65 and older and the annual growth of this age group have been increasing rapidly since the start of the decade, specifically since 2011 when the first baby-boom cohorts began turning 65. On July 1, 2017, two out of five people aged 65 or older (40.9%) were baby boomers, compared with 35.7% in 2016. It can be seen that this proportion is rising quickly.

Also, one-quarter of baby boomers (26.7%) were 65 and older in 2017, compared with 22.4% in 2016. In 2031, every baby boomer will have turned 65.

Canada has nearly one person aged 0 to 14 or 65 and older for every two working-age people

The demographic dependency ratio represents the number of children (0 to 14 years) and seniors (65 years and older) per 100 working-age people (15 to 64 years). On July 1, 2017, the ratio was 49.0. This indicator has been rising steadily since 2007 (43.9), and more prominently since 2011 (44.5) when the first baby boomers started turning 65. It will continue to rise until 2031 and even beyond, since the last baby boomers will turn 65 in 2031. According to the medium growth (M1) scenario in the most recent population projections, the demographic dependency ratio should be 64.2 in 2031.

The current trend in the demographic dependency ratio is the opposite of what was observed in the 1970s. Between 1971 (the beginning of the period covered by the current demographic accounting system) and 1986, the demographic dependency ratio fell from 59.5 to 46.0. This phenomenon is also due to the baby-boom generation, whose members successively turned 15 years old from 1961 to 1980. Canada has therefore seen years when the demographic dependency ratio was much higher than in 2017. The main difference lies in the composition of the population by age group: in 1971, children (aged 0 to 14) represented 78.5% of the non-working-age population, compared with 48.7% in 2017.

The demographic dependency ratio recorded in 2017 (49.0) was the highest since 1978, when Canada had 49.3 children or seniors per 100 working-age people. Since 1978, the demographic dependency ratio has remained below 50, at a relatively stable level, because the majority of baby boomers have been of working age.

The number of centenarians continues to grow

Because of greater life expectancy and population aging, growing numbers of Canadians are reaching the age of 100. On July 1, 2017, preliminary estimates indicate that there were 6,620 centenarians in Canada, or roughly 18 per 100,000 population. In 2001,^{Note 6} the proportion was 11 centenarians per 100,000 population. By comparison, in Japan, which has one of the oldest populations in the world, there were about 53 centenarians per 100,000 population in February 2017.^{Note 7}

Low female mortality is a factor in population aging

The main population aging indicators are all higher for females. On July 1, 2017, the proportion of women 65 and older (18.2%) was higher than the corresponding proportion of men (15.5%). The median age was also higher for women (41.5 years) than for men (39.7 years). Furthermore, the centenarian group still comprised mostly women (88.8%). These differences are mainly due to the fact that women, at all ages, have lower mortality levels than men. These mortality levels create a persistent, yet narrowing gap in life expectancy in favour of females. The most recent data show that female life expectancy was 83.8 years, compared with 79.6 years for males.^{Note 8}

One in two Canadians is at least 40 years of age

In 2017, one out of two Canadians was at least 40.6 years. The median age has increased by 10 years since 1984, when it was 30.6 years.

Median age varies considerably from province to province. On July 1, 2017, there was a difference of 9.0 years between the province with the highest median age (45.7 years in Newfoundland and Labrador) and the lowest median age (36.7 years in Alberta).  Taken the territories into consideration, Nunavut had the lowest median age at 26.4 years.

In 1997, the differences between the provinces were much smaller, with a gap of 3.0 years. The highest median age was in Quebec (36.6 years) and the lowest in Alberta (33.6 years). The situation in Newfoundland and Labrador indicates an especially rapid aging of its population. Between 1993 and 2005, this province went from having the lowest median age (31.8 years) to the highest (40.7 years). Newfoundland and Labrador experienced almost no population growth, and even negative growth from the mid-1980s to 2009. The main contributing factor is the departure of high numbers of people of reproductive age to other provinces and territories. Consequently, there were fewer births. In addition, Newfoundland and Labrador receives fewer international migrants than most other provinces.

Children still outnumber seniors in the Prairies and the territories

At the provincial and territorial level, the proportions of people 65 years and older and children 0 to 14 years vary widely. In Canada’s Eastern and Central provinces and in British Columbia, the number of people 65 years and older was higher than the number of children 0 to 14 years on July 1, 2017. However, the Prairie provinces and the territories had more children aged 0 to 14 than people 65 years and older. In 2009, Nova Scotia and New Brunswick were the top two provinces where the proportion of people aged 65 and older exceeded the proportion of children aged 0 to 14 years.

On July 1, 2017, New Brunswick had the highest proportion of people aged 65 and older (20.1%), and Alberta the lowest (12.4%). As for the proportion of children aged 0 to 14 years, the highest was observed in Saskatchewan (19.3%) and the lowest in Nova Scotia (13.9%). The situation in the territories is unique, in that the populations are younger than in the rest of Canada. Nunavut stood out on account of children aged 0 to 14 making up 30.9% of the population, while people aged 65 and older represented 4.0% of the population.

A generally younger population from Central to Western Canada and in the territories

The demographic dependency ratio, which shows the relationship between people aged 0 to 14 years and 65 years and older compared with working-age people (15 to 64 years), differs between each of the provinces and territories. In 2017, the Atlantic provinces and Quebec had a higher dependency ratio than the national average (49.0) due to high proportion of people aged 65 and older. Manitoba and Saskatchewan, which also exceeded the national dependency ratio with 51.4 and 52.1 respectively, both had a larger proportion of children aged 0 to 14 among persons considered “dependent”. Among the provinces, the only exception was Alberta, which had a lower dependency ratio (44.7) than the Canadian average, but also a larger proportion of children aged 0 to 14, attesting to a younger population overall. A similar situation was noted in Yukon (40.2) and the Northwest Territories (40.7). At the opposite end of the spectrum, Nunavut posted 47.4 children aged 0 to 14 per 100 working-age people, and only 6.1 people aged 65 and older per 100 people aged 15 to 64.

Nationally, the ratio of people 65 years and older to children aged 0 to 14 years was 1.05, indicating that the first group had a slightly higher demographic weight than the second. Nova Scotia had the highest ratio, with 1.42 people 65 years and older for every child aged 0 to 14. In contrast, Nunavut had 0.13 people aged 65 and older for every child aged 0 to 14. Among the provinces, Alberta had the lowest ratio (0.67).

Canada has slightly more women than men

On July 1, 2017, the sex ratio for the entire Canadian population was estimated at 98.4 males per 100 females (Chart 2.5). This ratio has changed very little over the last 20 years, with 98.1 males per 100 females observed in 1997. Males outnumber females in the 0-to-14 and 15-to-39 age groups, mainly because of the sex ratio at birth, which averages 105 males per 100 females. However, when people reach their mid-50s, the number of men starts to fall slightly below the number of women because of excess mortality among males. This gap widens at more advanced ages: in the 65-to-79 age group, there were an estimated 91.6 males per 100 females on July 1, 2017. However, the gap between the sexes seems to be narrowing. Twenty years ago, for every 100 females aged 65 to 79, there were 81.5 males. In the population aged 80 years and older, there were an estimated 64.4 males per 100 females on July 1, 2017, compared with 51.6 males per 100 females on July 1, 1997. The estimate for centenarians in 2017 was 12.6 males per 100 females.

Slight differences in the sex ratios of the provinces and territories

There are some regional differences in the sex structure in Canada. On July 1, 2017, the lowest sex ratio in the country was in Prince Edward Island, with 95.7 males per 100 females, and the highest was in Alberta (102.5 males per 100 females). The sex ratios in the Atlantic provinces were below the national average (98.4 males per 100 females), while in the Prairie provinces, they were all higher. Among other factors, this situation can be attributed to a younger population.

In 2017, males outnumbered females in all the territories. The main differences between the sex structure in the territories and in Canada as a whole are at higher ages. At age 50 and older, Yukon and the Northwest Territories had 107.0 and 108.7 males, respectively, per 100 females and Nunavut had 116.4 males per 100 females.

Mobile individuals are much younger than the entire population

The age pyramid opposite highlights the differences in the age-sex structure of interprovincial migrants, immigrants, non-permanent residents and the total population.^{Note 9} On July 1, 2017, the proportion of the working-age population (aged 15 to 64) was considerably higher among immigrants (75.4%), interprovincial migrants (77.7%) and non-permanent residents (96.2%). These subgroups also had a high concentration of young adults. A majority of non-permanent residents (60.4%) were between 18 and 29 years of age. Immigrants were slightly older and less concentrated in some age groups, since 51.9% of them were in the 25-to-44 group. Lastly, 55.0% of interprovincial migrants were aged 20 to 44. Similarly, the median age of interprovincial migrants (30.8 years), non-permanent residents (25.9 years) and immigrants (30.9 years) was below the national level (40.6 years) on July 1, 2017.

Immigrants stood out for having a high proportion of children under 15 years of age (20.0%). However, this proportion was down from the previous year (22.5%). By comparison, in 2017, 3.3% of non-permanent residents were in the 0-to-14 age group. The distinct age structure of non-permanent residents is mostly due to the fact that these people come to Canada mainly for the purpose of work or study, which mostly involves young adults and applies less to children.

Females slightly outnumber males among immigrants, contrary to permanent residents

The sex structure of the three subgroups also differs. Males were slightly underrepresented among immigrants (93.5 males per 100 females), but were significantly overrepresented among non-permanent residents (132.5 males per 100 females), and to a lesser degree, among interprovincial migrants (104.4 males per 100 females). By comparison, the sex ratio for the entire Canadian population is almost equal, with 98.4 males per 100 females. More careful analysis of the sex ratio in each subgroup by certain age groups reveals that men are overrepresented among interprovincial migrants under 65 years of age, among immigrants under 15 years, and among non-permanent residents of all ages.

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