Annual Demographic Estimates: Canada, Provinces and Territories
Data quality, concepts and methodology

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Methodology

This section describes the concepts, data sources and methodology used to produce the population estimates. Population estimates are produced to measure the population counts according to various characteristics and geographies between two censuses. The demographic estimates are the official population estimates at the national, provincial and territorial levels.

Postcensal estimates are based on the 2011 Census.

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Specific information regarding age and sex distributions is provided in boxes.

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Population Estimates

Estimates of the total population

Types of estimates

Population estimates can be either intercensal or postcensal. Intercensal estimates are produced using the counts from two consecutive censuses adjusted for census net undercoverage (CNU)Note 1 and postcensal estimates. The production of intercensal estimates involves updating the postcensal estimates using the counts from a new census adjusted for CNU.Note 1

Postcensal estimates are produced using data from the most recent census adjusted for CNUNote 1 and the components of demographic growth. In terms of timeliness, postcensal estimates are more up-to-date than data from the most recent census adjusted for CNU,Note 1 but as they get farther from the date of that census, they become more variable.

Levels of estimates

The production of the population estimates between censuses entails the use of data from administrative files or surveys. The quality of population estimates therefore depends on the availability of a number of administrative data files that are provided to Statistics Canada by Canadian and foreign government departments. Since some components are not available until several months after the reference date, three kinds of postcensal estimates are produced preliminary postcensal (PP), updated postcensal (PR) and final postcensal (PD). The time lag between the reference date and the release date is three months for preliminary estimates and two to three years for final estimates. Though it requires more vigilance on the part of users, the production of three successive series of postcensal estimates is the strategy that best satisfies the need for both timeliness and accuracy of the estimates. All tables indicate the level of the estimates they contain.

Calculation of postcensal population estimates

Population estimates – preliminary, updated and final – are produced by the component method. This method consists of taking the population figures from the most recent census, adjusted for the CNUNote 1 (census undercoverage minus census overcoverage), and adding or subtracting the number of births, deaths, and components of international and interprovincial migration.

A. Provincial / territorial estimates of total population

Population estimates are produced for the provinces and territories first; then they are summed to obtain an estimate of the population of Canada.

The component-method formula for estimating the total provincial / territorial populations is as follows:

P ( t+i ) = P ( t ) + B ( t,t+i ) D ( t,t+i ) + I ( t,t+i ) [ E ( t,t+i ) +ΔT E ( t,t+i ) ]+R E ( t,t+i ) +ΔNP R ( t,t+i ) +ΔN inter ( t,t+i ) Resi d ( t,t+i ) MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq=Jc9 vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0=yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr=x fr=xb9adbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGaamiuamaaBa aaleaadaqadaqaaiaadshacqGHRaWkcaWGPbaacaGLOaGaayzkaaaa beaakiabg2da9iaadcfadaWgaaWcbaWaaeWaaeaacaWG0baacaGLOa GaayzkaaaabeaakiabgUcaRiaadkeadaWgaaWcbaWaaeWaaeaacaWG 0bGaaiilaiaadshacqGHRaWkcaWGPbaacaGLOaGaayzkaaaabeaaki abgkHiTiaadseadaWgaaWcbaWaaeWaaeaacaWG0bGaaiilaiaadsha cqGHRaWkcaWGPbaacaGLOaGaayzkaaaabeaakiabgUcaRiaadMeada WgaaWcbaWaaeWaaeaacaWG0bGaaiilaiaadshacqGHRaWkcaWGPbaa caGLOaGaayzkaaaabeaakiabgkHiTmaadmaabaGaamyramaaBaaale aadaqadaqaaiaadshacaGGSaGaamiDaiabgUcaRiaadMgaaiaawIca caGLPaaaaeqaaOGaey4kaSIaeuiLdqKaamivaiaadweadaWgaaWcba WaaeWaaeaacaWG0bGaaiilaiaadshacqGHRaWkcaWGPbaacaGLOaGa ayzkaaaabeaaaOGaay5waiaaw2faaiabgUcaRiaadkfacaWGfbWaaS baaSqaamaabmaabaGaamiDaiaacYcacaWG0bGaey4kaSIaamyAaaGa ayjkaiaawMcaaaqabaGccqGHRaWkcqqHuoarcaWGobGaamiuaiaadk fadaWgaaWcbaWaaeWaaeaacaWG0bGaaiilaiaadshacqGHRaWkcaWG PbaacaGLOaGaayzkaaaabeaakiabgUcaRiabfs5aejaad6eaciGGPb GaaiOBaiaacshacaGGLbGaaiOCamaaBaaaleaadaqadaqaaiaadsha caGGSaGaamiDaiabgUcaRiaadMgaaiaawIcacaGLPaaaaeqaaOGaey OeI0IaamOuaiaacwgacaGGZbGaaiyAaiaacsgadaWgaaWcbaWaaeWa aeaacaWG0bGaaiilaiaadshacqGHRaWkcaWGPbaacaGLOaGaayzkaa aabeaaaaa@98CE@

where, for each province and territory:

(t,t+i)
interval between times t and t+i;
P(t+i)
estimate of the population at time t+i;
P(t)
base population at time t (census adjusted for (CNU)Note 1 or most recent estimate);
B
number of births;
D
number of deaths;
I
number of immigrants;
E
number of emigrants;
ΔTE
net temporary emigration;
RE
number of returning emigrants;
ΔNPR
net non-permanent residents;
ΔNinter
net interprovincial migration;
Resid
residual deviation (for intercensal estimates).

 

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B. Provincial / territorial estimates by age and sex

Postcensal population estimates by age and sex are produced by applying the component method to each age-sex cohort in the base population.

At age 0:

P ( t+1 ) 0 = B ( t,t+1 ) D ( t,t+1 ) 1 + I ( t,t+1 ) 1 [ E ( t,t+1 ) 1 +ΔT E ( t,t+1 ) 1 ]+R E ( t,t+1 ) 1 +ΔNP R ( t,t+1 ) 1 +ΔNinte r ( t,t+1 ) 1 Resi d ( t,t+1 ) 1 MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq=Jc9 vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0=yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr=x fr=xb9adbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGaamiuamaaDa aaleaadaqadaqaaiaadshacqGHRaWkcaaIXaaacaGLOaGaayzkaaaa baGaaGimaaaakiabg2da9iaadkeadaWgaaWcbaWaaeWaaeaacaWG0b GaaiilaiaadshacqGHRaWkcaaIXaaacaGLOaGaayzkaaaabeaakiab gkHiTiaadseadaqhaaWcbaWaaSbaaWqaamaabmaabaGaamiDaiaacY cacaWG0bGaey4kaSIaaGymaaGaayjkaiaawMcaaaqabaaaleaacqGH sislcaaIXaaaaOGaey4kaSIaamysamaaDaaaleaadaWgaaadbaWaae WaaeaacaWG0bGaaiilaiaadshacqGHRaWkcaaIXaaacaGLOaGaayzk aaaabeaaaSqaaiabgkHiTiaaigdaaaGccqGHsisldaWadaqaaiaadw eadaqhaaWcbaWaaSbaaWqaamaabmaabaGaamiDaiaacYcacaWG0bGa ey4kaSIaaGymaaGaayjkaiaawMcaaaqabaaaleaacqGHsislcaaIXa aaaOGaey4kaSIaeuiLdqKaamivaiaadweadaqhaaWcbaWaaSbaaWqa amaabmaabaGaamiDaiaacYcacaWG0bGaey4kaSIaaGymaaGaayjkai aawMcaaaqabaaaleaacqGHsislcaaIXaaaaaGccaGLBbGaayzxaaGa ey4kaSIaamOuaiaadweadaqhaaWcbaWaaSbaaWqaamaabmaabaGaam iDaiaacYcacaWG0bGaey4kaSIaaGymaaGaayjkaiaawMcaaaqabaaa leaacqGHsislcaaIXaaaaOGaey4kaSIaeuiLdqKaamOtaiaadcfaca WGsbWaa0baaSqaamaaBaaameaadaqadaqaaiaadshacaGGSaGaamiD aiabgUcaRiaaigdaaiaawIcacaGLPaaaaeqaaaWcbaGaeyOeI0IaaG ymaaaakiabgUcaRiabfs5aebbaaaaaaaaapeGaamOtaiaadMgacaWG UbGaamiDaiaadwgacaWGYbWdamaaDaaaleaadaWgaaadbaWaaeWaae aacaWG0bGaaiilaiaadshacqGHRaWkcaaIXaaacaGLOaGaayzkaaaa beaaaSqaaiabgkHiTiaaigdaaaGccqGHsislpeGaamOuaiaadwgaca WGZbGaamyAaiaadsgapaWaa0baaSqaamaaBaaameaadaqadaqaaiaa dshacaGGSaGaamiDaiabgUcaRiaaigdaaiaawIcacaGLPaaaaeqaaa WcbaGaeyOeI0IaaGymaaaaaaa@A279@

From 1 to 99 years:

P ( t+1 ) a = B ( t ) a D ( t,t+1 ) a + I ( t,t+1 ) a [ E ( t,t+1 ) a +ΔT E ( t,t+1 ) a ]+R E ( t,t+1 ) a +ΔNP R ( t,t+1 ) a +ΔNinte r ( t,t+1 ) a Resi d ( t,t+1 ) a MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq=Jc9 vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0=yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr=x fr=xb9adbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGaamiuamaaDa aaleaadaqadaqaaiaadshacqGHRaWkcaaIXaaacaGLOaGaayzkaaaa baGaamyyaaaakiabg2da9iaadkeadaqhaaWcbaWaaeWaaeaacaWG0b aacaGLOaGaayzkaaaabaGaamyyaaaakiabgkHiTiaadseadaqhaaWc baWaaSbaaWqaamaabmaabaGaamiDaiaacYcacaWG0bGaey4kaSIaaG ymaaGaayjkaiaawMcaaaqabaaaleaacaWGHbaaaOGaey4kaSIaamys amaaDaaaleaadaWgaaadbaWaaeWaaeaacaWG0bGaaiilaiaadshacq GHRaWkcaaIXaaacaGLOaGaayzkaaaabeaaaSqaaiaadggaaaGccqGH sisldaWadaqaaiaadweadaqhaaWcbaWaaSbaaWqaamaabmaabaGaam iDaiaacYcacaWG0bGaey4kaSIaaGymaaGaayjkaiaawMcaaaqabaaa leaacaWGHbaaaOGaey4kaSIaeuiLdqKaamivaiaadweadaqhaaWcba WaaSbaaWqaamaabmaabaGaamiDaiaacYcacaWG0bGaey4kaSIaaGym aaGaayjkaiaawMcaaaqabaaaleaacaWGHbaaaaGccaGLBbGaayzxaa Gaey4kaSIaamOuaiaadweadaqhaaWcbaWaaSbaaWqaamaabmaabaGa amiDaiaacYcacaWG0bGaey4kaSIaaGymaaGaayjkaiaawMcaaaqaba aaleaacaWGHbaaaOGaey4kaSIaeuiLdqKaamOtaiaadcfacaWGsbWa a0baaSqaamaaBaaameaadaqadaqaaiaadshacaGGSaGaamiDaiabgU caRiaaigdaaiaawIcacaGLPaaaaeqaaaWcbaGaamyyaaaakiabgUca Riabfs5aebbaaaaaaaaapeGaamOtaiaadMgacaWGUbGaamiDaiaadw gacaWGYbWdamaaDaaaleaadaWgaaadbaWaaeWaaeaacaWG0bGaaiil aiaadshacqGHRaWkcaaIXaaacaGLOaGaayzkaaaabeaaaSqaaiaadg gaaaGccqGHsislpeGaamOuaiaadwgacaWGZbGaamyAaiaadsgapaWa a0baaSqaamaaBaaameaadaqadaqaaiaadshacaGGSaGaamiDaiabgU caRiaaigdaaiaawIcacaGLPaaaaeqaaaWcbaGaamyyaaaaaaa@9A36@

For 100 years and over:

P ( t+1 ) 100+ = B ( t ) 99+ D ( t,t+1 ) 99+ + I ( t,t+1 ) 99+ [ E ( t,t+1 ) 99+ +ΔT E ( t,t+1 ) 99+ ]+R E ( t,t+1 ) 99+ +ΔNP R ( t,t+1 ) 99+ +ΔNinte r ( t,t+1 ) 99+ Resi d ( t,t+1 ) 99+ MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq=Jc9 vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0=yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr=x fr=xb9adbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGaamiuamaaDa aaleaadaqadaqaaiaadshacqGHRaWkcaaIXaaacaGLOaGaayzkaaaa baGaaGymaiaaicdacaaIWaGaey4kaScaaOGaeyypa0JaamOqamaaDa aaleaadaqadaqaaiaadshaaiaawIcacaGLPaaaaeaacaaI5aGaaGyo aiabgUcaRaaakiabgkHiTiaadseadaqhaaWcbaWaaSbaaWqaamaabm aabaGaamiDaiaacYcacaWG0bGaey4kaSIaaGymaaGaayjkaiaawMca aaqabaaaleaacaaI5aGaaGyoaiabgUcaRaaakiabgUcaRiaadMeada qhaaWcbaWaaSbaaWqaamaabmaabaGaamiDaiaacYcacaWG0bGaey4k aSIaaGymaaGaayjkaiaawMcaaaqabaaaleaacaaI5aGaaGyoaiabgU caRaaakiabgkHiTmaadmaabaGaamyramaaDaaaleaadaWgaaadbaWa aeWaaeaacaWG0bGaaiilaiaadshacqGHRaWkcaaIXaaacaGLOaGaay zkaaaabeaaaSqaaiaaiMdacaaI5aGaey4kaScaaOGaey4kaSIaeuiL dqKaamivaiaadweadaqhaaWcbaWaaSbaaWqaamaabmaabaGaamiDai aacYcacaWG0bGaey4kaSIaaGymaaGaayjkaiaawMcaaaqabaaaleaa caaI5aGaaGyoaiabgUcaRaaaaOGaay5waiaaw2faaiabgUcaRiaadk facaWGfbWaa0baaSqaamaaBaaameaadaqadaqaaiaadshacaGGSaGa amiDaiabgUcaRiaaigdaaiaawIcacaGLPaaaaeqaaaWcbaGaaGyoai aaiMdacqGHRaWkaaGccqGHRaWkcqqHuoarcaWGobGaamiuaiaadkfa daqhaaWcbaWaaSbaaWqaamaabmaabaGaamiDaiaacYcacaWG0bGaey 4kaSIaaGymaaGaayjkaiaawMcaaaqabaaaleaacaaI5aGaaGyoaiab gUcaRaaakiabgUcaRiabfs5aebbaaaaaaaaapeGaamOtaiaadMgaca WGUbGaamiDaiaadwgacaWGYbWdamaaDaaaleaadaWgaaadbaWaaeWa aeaacaWG0bGaaiilaiaadshacqGHRaWkcaaIXaaacaGLOaGaayzkaa aabeaaaSqaaiaaiMdacaaI5aGaey4kaScaaOGaeyOeI0Ydbiaadkfa caWGLbGaam4CaiaadMgacaWGKbWdamaaDaaaleaadaWgaaadbaWaae WaaeaacaWG0bGaaiilaiaadshacqGHRaWkcaaIXaaacaGLOaGaayzk aaaabeaaaSqaaiaaiMdacaaI5aGaey4kaScaaaaa@A9F3@

where, for each province and territory:

(t,t+1)
= interval between times t and t+1;
a
= age
P(t+1)
= estimate of the population at time t+1;
P(t)
= base population at time t (census adjusted for (CNU)Note 1 or most recent estimate);
B
= number of births;
D
= number of deaths;
I
= number of immigrants;
E
= number of emigrants;
ΔTE
= net temporary emigration;
RE
= number of returning emigrants;
ΔNPR
= net non-permanent residents;
ΔNinter
= net interprovincial migration;
Resid
= residual deviation (for intercensal estimates).
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C. Levels of estimates

The difference between preliminaryNote 2 and final postcensal population estimates lies in the timeliness of the components. When all the components are preliminary, the population estimate is described as preliminary postcensal (PP). When they are all final, the estimate is referred to as final postcensal (PD). Any other combination of levels is referred to as updated postcensal (PR).

Base population and components of demographic growth

A. Base population

The base populations are derived from the quinquennial censuses between 1971 and 2011. The population universe of the 2011Note 3  Census includes the following groups:

  • Canadian citizens (by birth or by naturalization) and immigrants with a usual place of residence in Canada;
  • Canadian citizens (by birth or by naturalization) and immigrants who are abroad either on a military base or attached to a diplomatic mission;
  • Canadian citizens (by birth or by naturalization) and immigrants at sea or in port aboard merchant vessels under Canadian registry or Canadian government vessels;
  • persons with a usual place of residence in Canada who are claiming refugee status and the family members living with them;
  • persons with a usual place of residence in Canada who hold study permits and the family members living with them;
  • persons with a usual place of residence in Canada who hold work permits and the family members living with them.

For census purposes, the last three groups are referred to as non-permanent residents (NPR). They have been included in the census universe since 1991 but foreign residents are not included. Foreign residents are persons who belong to the following groups:

  • government representatives of another country attached to the embassy, high commission or other diplomatic body of that country in Canada, and members of their families living with them;
  • members of the Armed Forces of another country who are stationed in Canada, and family members living with them;
  • residents of another country visiting Canada temporarily (for example, a foreign visitor on vacation or on business, with or without a visitor’s permit).

These base populations are adjusted as follows:

  • adjustment of the population for CNU;
  • addition of independent estimates for incompletely enumerated Indian reserves in 1991, 1996, 2001, 2006 and 2011;
  • adjustment for early enumeration in 1991 and 1996 in parts of Northern Quebec, Newfoundland and Labrador, the Yukon and the Northwest Territories;
  • addition of estimates of NPRs in 1971, 1976, 1981 and 1986. Since 1991, NPRs are included in the census universe;
  • estimation of the July 1 base population by addition or subtraction of the components of growth between Census Day and June 30;
  • demographic adjustment for old age population is an age structure adjustment of censal estimates for 2001, 2006 and 2011 by sex for each province and territory. These adjustments were performed from age 85 in 2001, from age 90 in 2006 and from age 95 in 2011.

Adjustment for the census net undercoverage (CNU)

The adjustment for CNU is important. CNU is the difference between the number of persons who should have been enumerated but were missed (undercoverage) and the number of persons who were enumerated but should not have been or who were counted more than once (overcoverage).

Coverage studies provide undercoverage estimates for the 1991, 199620012006 and 2011 censuses at the provincial and territorial levels, and for the 1971, 1976, 1981 and 1986 censuses at the provincial level only. Estimates of overcoverage at the provincial and territorial levels are available only for the last five censuses (1991, 1996, 2001, 2006 and 2011). Overcoverage for previous censuses was estimated by assuming that the overcoverage-to-undercoverage ratio for each census between 1971 and 1986 was the same as in 1991. The CNU for the Yukon and the Northwest Territories prior to 1991 was estimated by assuming that the ratio between the CNU for each territory and the 10 provinces for each census between 1971 and 1986 was the same as in 1991.

For consistency, the 1991 Census undercoverage and overcoverage were revised in 1998 to take into account the methodological improvements made in the 1996 Census coverage studies. This revision altered CNU in all censuses between 1971 and 1986. Similarly, the 1996 Census undercoverage and overcoverage were revised in 2003.

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Various methods were used to produce the estimates of CNU by age and sex for 1991, 1996, 2001, 2006 and 2011. First, the national estimates of CNU based on the coverage studies by age and sex were smoothed. Then an Empirical Bayes regression model was used to generate the provincial and territorial estimates of CNU by broad age groups, and a synthetic model produced estimates by single year of age. Lastly, two-way rakingNote 4  was used to ensure that CNU estimates were consistent with the provincial and territorial CNU totals and the national estimates by age and sex.

For the 1971 to 1986 period, CNU estimates by age and sex were simply prorated to the revised CNU estimates for the total population.

Demographic adjustment for old age populations

Age structure analysis of recent censuses and population estimates showed that population at old ages, especially centenarians (population aged 100 years old and over), have been subject to overestimation issues. For older populations, the types of errors and the magnitude of their effect can vary from one census to another, from error of misreporting (voluntary and non voluntary) to errors emerging from data capture and processing errors.

When compared to 2011 Census figures, estimates of centenarians still based on 2006 Census were 29% higher for females and 88% higher for males. This indicated that the adjustments done to diminish the 2006 base population for ages 95+, which would make the 100+ population in 2011, were not sufficient. This led the Population Estimates Program (PEP) of Statistics Canada to review its method to adjust the base population’s age structure. For example, with these new adjustments, the number of centenarians has been lowered in 2006 for both male and female, respectively from 830 to 595 (-39%) and from 3,891 to 3,784 (-3%).

Using death data and a combination of two methods, the extinct cohort method and the survival ratios method for non-extinct cohorts, the PEP has adjusted the age structure of the 2011 Census population in order to overcome the overestimation of population at old ages observed in the 2006 cycle.

Assuming that these populations are not affected by migration, the principle of the extinct cohort method (Vincent, 1951) is simple. When all members of a given cohort have died (up until age 110), the numbers alive in a given year can be calculated by summing the deaths, beginning with the oldest. For non-extinct cohorts, the survival ratio method (Thatcher 1992; Thatcher and al. 2002; Andreev 2004) was used to estimate population in a similar way but under the assumption that deaths of non-extinct cohorts are distributed by age mainly like those who are extinct.

In order to assure coherence of estimates by cohort, the adjustment, name demographic adjustment, was produced to adjust censal estimates for 2001, 2006 and 2011 by age and sex for each province and territory. These adjustments were performed from age 85 in 2001, from age 90 in 2006 and from age 95 in 2011. The surplus populations among the oldest-old population were redistributed in population aged 5 to 74 years according to their relative weights for each province/territory and sex.

The robustness of this newly implemented method will be monitored through the 2011 cycle and researches to improve its fitness and coherence will be continued. A more complete description of the method is incorporated in the first chapter (base population) of the methodological guide (catalogue no. 91-528-X).

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B. Births and deaths

The numbers of births and deaths are derived directly from the vital statistics database of Statistics Canada’s Health Statistics Division. Although Statistics Canada manages the National system of vital statistics, the central vital statistics registries of the provinces and territories are responsible for collecting and processing the information from those administrative files. Under provincial / territorial vital statistics statutes (or similar legislation), all live births and all deaths must be registered, and all provinces and territories provide this information to Statistics Canada.

The vital statistics universe closely parallels the census universe. Both universes include the births and deaths of all Canadians, immigrants and non-permanent residents (NPR) and exclude foreign residents.

Vital statistics by province or territory of residence are used to produce our final estimates of births and deaths. However, before 2011, the final estimates may differ from the data released by the Health Statistics Division due to the imputation of certain unknown values. In addition, for estimates of deaths, the age represents age at the beginning of the period (July 1st) and not the age at the time of occurrence, as with the Health Statistics Division data.

When there are no vital statistics, the number of births is estimated using fertility rates by the mother’s age. The number of deaths is estimated by using mortality rates by age and sex. These methods are used to calculate preliminaryNote 2 estimates.

Special treatment for preliminaryNote 2 estimates for Quebec and British Columbia

Quebec and British Columbia provide their most recent estimates of births and deaths. The figures are used to produce preliminaryNote 2 estimates. For the final estimates, the two provinces’ births and deaths are derived from the vital statistics compiled by Health Statistics Division.

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With regard to the preliminaryNote 2 estimates, the number of births by sex is derived by applying an average proportion by sex for each province and territory to the births derived from the birth probabilities. These proportions are calculated using vital statistics from the past 10 years.

With regard to the preliminaryNote 2 estimates, the number of deaths by age and sex is derived by applying mortality rates by age and sex for each province and territory to the deaths derived from the death probabilities. These mortality rates are calculated using vital statistics from the past 2 years.

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Levels of estimates

For information on the differences between preliminaryNote 2 and final estimates, see sections B. Births and Deaths, above.

C. Immigration

Like the numbers of births and deaths, Canadian immigration statistics must be kept by law. In Canada, immigration is regulated by the Immigration and Refugee Protection Act (IRPA) of 2002. This statute superseded the Immigration Act, which was passed in 1976 and amended more than 30 times in the years thereafter. Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) collects and processes immigrants’ administrative files. It then provides Statistics Canada with information from Global Case Management System (GCMS) files. The information is used to estimate the number and characteristics of people granted permanent resident status by the federal government on a given date. For Demography Division, the terms immigrant and permanent resident are equivalent.

An immigrant is a person who is not a Canadian citizen by birth, but has been granted the right to live in Canada permanently by Canadian immigration authorities. The number of immigrants does not include persons born abroad to Canadian parents who are only temporarily outside the country.

Immigrants are usually counted on or after the date on which they are granted permanent resident status or the right to live in Canada.

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The number of immigrants by age and sex is derived from the Global Case Management System (GCMS).

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Levels of estimates

The difference between preliminaryNote 2 and final postcensal estimates lies in the timeliness of the source used to estimate this component. Since the GCMS files are continually being updated, new calculations are carried out each year to update the immigration estimates. Immigration estimates are preliminary the first year, updated the second year and final in the third year.

D. Net non-permanent residents

Like the numbers of births and deaths, Canadian immigration statistics must be kept by law. In Canada, the non-permanent residents (NPR) are regulated by the Immigration and Refugee Protection Act (IRPA) of 2002. This statute superseded the Immigration Act, which was passed in 1976 and amended more than 30 times in the years thereafter. Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) collects and processes the administrative files of immigrants and NPRs in Canada. It then provides Statistics Canada with information from Global Case Management System (GCMS) files. The information is used to estimate the number and characteristics of people granted non-permanent resident status by the federal government.

NPRs are persons who are lawfully in Canada on a temporary basis under the authority of a temporary resident permit, along with members of their family living with them. NPRs include foreign workers, foreign students, the humanitarian population and other temporary residents. The humanitarian population includes refugee claimants and temporary residents who are allowed to remain in Canada on humanitarian grounds and are not categorized as either foreign workers or foreign students. For Demography Division, the terms non-permanent resident and temporary resident are equivalent.

NPR estimates are based on the number of NPRs, not on the net. The number of people in IRPA’s administrative system is estimated on a specific date in each period of observation. First, the end-of-period number of NPR is estimated, and then the start-of-period number of NPR is subtracted from that estimate. That yields the net number of NPR.

Anyone who received non-permanent resident status prior to the observation date is counted. For refugee claimants, the date of their application is used. Permit holders and refugee claimants are excluded from the population if their permit has expired, if they receive permanent resident status, or if they are deported. In addition, refugee claimants are excluded if their file has been inactive for two years.

Since GCMS files are continually being updated, the figures are recalculated each year until the estimates of net NPR are final.

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The net number of non-permanent residents by age and sex is derived from the Global Case Management System (GCMS).

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Levels of estimates

The difference between preliminaryNote 2 and final estimates lies in the timeliness of the source used to estimate this component. Since the GCMS files are continually being updated, the figures are recalculated each year to update the estimates of the net number of NPRs. Non-permanent resident (NPR) estimates are preliminary the first year and updated the following year. They become final two to three years after the reference year, when all other components are also final.

E. Emigration

The number of emigrants is estimated using data from the Office of Immigration Statistics, U.S. Department of Homeland Security, data collected by the Canada child benefit (CCB) program (formerly Canada child tax benefit (CCTB)), and data from the T1 Family File (T1FF).Note 5  The first source is used to estimate emigration to the United States. CCB data are used to estimate emigration to other countries. The estimates of the number of child emigrants have to be adjusted because the CCB is not universal and does not provide direct information on the number of adult emigrants. As a result, four adjustment factors are taken into account:

  • incomplete coverage due to a delay in the receipt and processing of the files of children eligible for the CCB. Since it seems to take four years after the reference period for CCB administrative files to become complete, the adjustment is made when the estimates are used before this date. The factor is derived from the two-year ratios of emigrant children based on two versions of the CCB files;
  • the program’s partial coverage, that is, people who do not apply for the CCB or who are not eligible. This factor is obtained by comparing the estimated number of children in the population with the number of children in CCB files;
  • the differential propensity to emigrate between children who are eligible for the CCB and children who are not. This factor is obtained by comparing the emigration rates of CCB-eligible children with the rates for all children (aged 0 to 17). This factor is calculated for each province and territory and is based on the last three available years of T1FF;Note 5
  • the differential propensity to emigrate between adults and children. This factor generates the emigration rate for the population aged 18 and over. It is obtained by (1) calculating the average ratio over three years of the adult and child emigration rates based on T1FFNote 5 data, (2) calculating the average ratio over three years of the adult and child emigration rates based on data from the Office of Immigration Statistics, U.S. Department of Homeland Security, and (3) taking the average of the two rates. This factor is calculated for Canada only.

The adult emigration rate is applied to the adult population. Adult emigration is distributed by province and territory using data from the T1FFNote 5 file. We calculate a ratio of the number of emigrant adults to the number of emigrant children from the T1FFNote 5 file. We then apply this ratio to the number of emigrant children from the CCB by province, which yields the number of adult emigrants whose provincial distribution will differ from that of the children.

The number of adult emigrants combined with the number of child emigrants (once adjusted for the coverage and differential emigration factors) generate the number of emigrants for the entire population.

Emigration is disaggregated by province and territory based on the number of child emigrants adjusted for coverage and differential emigration.

Please note that the estimates for the most recent periods are expected to be identical or very similar. In the absence of more up-to-date data sources, the assumption is made that levels remain similar.

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Estimates of the number of emigrants by age and sex are obtained by using the data by five-year age group, sex, province and territory from T1FFNote 5 files adjusted for the coverage. We distribute these estimates by single year of age using Sprague coefficients.

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Levels of estimates

The difference between preliminaryNote 2 and final estimates lies in the timeliness of the sources used to estimate this component. The same estimation method is used.

F. Net temporary emigration

Some people leave Canada to live temporarily in another country while others who were temporarily outside of Canada return. The net result of those departures and returns is the component known as “net temporary emigration”. Estimates of the number of departures are derived from the Reverse Record Check (RRC), the most important census coverage study. The RRC provides an estimate of the number of people who left Canada temporarily during an intercensal period and are still out of the country at the end of the period. Estimates of the number of returns are based on two sources: the census and Demography Division’s estimates of returning emigrants. The census provides the number of people who were outside Canada at the time of the previous census and returned during the intercensal period. That number includes all returning emigrants. Then Demography Division’s estimate of the returning emigrants component is subtracted to produce the number of returning temporary emigrants. The estimated numbers of departures (RRC) and returns (census and Demography Division) yield an estimate of net temporary emigration.

This estimate is for the whole intercensal period; it is disaggregated into estimates for each of the five years in the period and then into monthly estimates using a seasonal adjustment that is an average between zero seasonality and the seasonality of emigration.

Net temporary emigration is calculated first for the national level. It is then disaggregated by province or group of provinces based on RRC estimates of temporary emigration. For the Atlantic provinces and the territories, the estimate for the group is disaggregated on the basis of each province / territory’s proportion of the group’s total population.

Net temporary emigration can be estimated only for the intercensal period preceding the most recent census. Net temporary emigration in the current period is assumed to be the same as in the previous period for each province and territory.

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The emigration age and sex distribution is applied to obtain the age and sex structure of the net temporary emigration.

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Levels of estimates

The difference between preliminaryNote 2 and final estimates lies in the timeliness of the emigration estimate used to calculate the seasonal adjustment for the net temporary emigration. The same estimation method is used.

G. Returning emigrants

A returning emigrant is a person who returns to Canada after having been classified as an emigrant. In a manner similar to the procedure used to calculate the number of emigrants, data from the Canada child benefit (CCB) file (formerly Canada child tax benefit (CCTB)) from Canada Revenue Agency (CRA) and T1FFNote 5 file are used to estimate the number of returning emigrants. Adjustment factors are applied to compensate for the fact that the CCB program is not universal, and an adult/child ratio is used to estimate the number of adult returning emigrants. As a result, four adjustment factors are used to take into account:

  • incomplete coverage due to a delay in the receipt and processing of the files of children eligible for the CCB. Since it seems to take four years after the reference period for CCB administrative files to become complete, the adjustment is made when the estimates are used before this date. The factor is derived from the two-year ratios of returning emigrant children based on two versions of the CCB files;
  • the program’s partial coverage, that is, people who do not apply for the CCB or who are not eligible. This factor is obtained by comparing the estimated number of children in the population with the number of children in CCB files;
  • the differential propensity to emigrate between children who are eligible for the CCB and children who are not. This factor is obtained by comparing the emigration rates of CCB-eligible children with the rates for all children (aged 0 to 17). This factor is calculated for each province and territory and is based on the last three available years of T1FFs;Note 5
  • the adult / child ratio, which is based on the 2011 National Household Survey.

Please note that the estimates for the most recent periods are expected to be identical or very similar. In the absence of more up-to-date data sources, the assumption is made that levels remain similar.

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The age and sex distribution of returning emigrants is based on the National Household Survey (NHS) data Characteristics of returning emigrants are derived from the question on the place of residence one year ago, after excluding non-permanent residents and immigrants.

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Levels of estimates

The difference between preliminaryNote 2 and final estimates lies in the timeliness of the sources used to estimate this component. The same estimation method is used.

H. Interprovincial migration

Interprovincial migration represents movements from one province or territory to another, involving a change in usual place of residence. As is the case for emigration, there is no provision for recording interprovincial migration in Canada. Consequently, such movements have to be estimated using data from the Canada child benefit (CCB) (formerly Canada child tax benefit (CCTB)) of Canada Revenue Agency (CRA) and T1FF.Note 5

Final estimates of interprovincial migration are obtained by comparing addresses indicated on personal income tax returns over two consecutive tax years. However, the migration status of tax filers’ dependants has to be imputed. An adjustment is also required to take into account migrants who do not file income tax returns. From 2001/2002 to 2005/2006, the adjustment was slightly modified (for further information, see Wilkinson, 2004). From 2006/2007, this adjustment has been slightly modified (Cyr, 2008 – Internal document).

Since income tax returns are not available at the time preliminary estimates are produced, the estimation of preliminaryNote 2 interprovincial migration is based on CCB administrative files, which provide counts of child migrants (aged 0 to 17) registered to the program. The estimates have to be adjusted later for children who are not registered to the CCB program. Finally, the number of adult migrants is calculated using the number of child migrants and factors derived from the T1FF.Note 5 As a result, three adjustment factors are used to take into account:

  • the program’s partial coverage, that is, people who are not registered to the CCB program. This factor is obtained by comparing the estimated number of children in the population with the number of children in CCB files;
  • the differential propensity to migrate between children who are registered to the CCB program and children who are not. This factor is obtained by comparing the out-migration rates of children registered to the CCB program with the rates for all children (aged 0 to 17). This factor is calculated for each province and territory and is based on the last available year of T1FF;Note 5
  • the differential propensity to migrate between adults and children. This factor generates the out-migration rate of the population aged 18 and over for each province / territory of origin and destination. It is obtained by calculating the ratio of the central migration rate for adults to the rate for children. It is estimated using data from the last three available years of T1FF.Note 5

The adult migration rate is then applied to the estimated adult population. The number of adult migrants is then added to the number of child migrants to produce the number of interprovincial migrants for the entire population.

Since 2015, the method to estimate the interprovincial migration has been modified. This new method is applied from July 2011 onward. In order to reduce the differences between the preliminary annual series (which was derived from the sum of 12 monthly migration matrices) and the final annual series, CCB microdata have been used. Using microdata is allowing estimating migration for various periods (monthly, quarterly and annually). It also allows improving the comparability between preliminary and final estimates. Final annual estimates (T1FF) are now distributed by quarter on the basis of preliminary quarterly estimates derived from CCB microdata. It is important to note that, as a result of using CCB microdata, it is not possible to add the quarterly interprovincial in-migrants and out-migrants estimates to get the annual estimates. It is however possible to add the quarterly net interprovincial migration estimates to get the annual estimates.

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Interprovincial migration by age and sex is derived from T1FFNote 5 data and counts derived from the NHS question on the place of residence one year ago. From 2011/2012, the 2011 NHS age and sex distribution is used.

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Levels of estimates

For information on the differences between preliminaryNote 2 and final estimates of total interprovincial migration, see section H. Interprovincial migration above.

Intercensal population estimates

Intercensal estimates – population estimates for reference dates between two censuses – are produced following each census. They reconcile previous postcensal estimates with the new census counts.

There are two main steps in the production of intercensal estimates:

  • calculation of the error of closure;
  • linear distribution of the error of closure.

The error of closure is defined as the difference between the postcensal population estimates on Census Day and the population enumerated in that census adjusted for CNU.Note 1

The error of closure is spread uniformly over the intercensal period of days within each month.

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Intercensal estimates by age and sex are adjusted in the same way, i.e., by distributing the error of closure uniformly across the age-sex cohorts.

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Quality of demographic data

The estimates contain certain inaccuracies stemming from two types of errors:

  • errors in the census data;
  • imperfections in other data sources and the method used to estimate the components.

Census data

A. Coverage, response and imputation errors

The errors attributable to census data can be divided into two groups: response and processing errors, and coverage errors. The first group implies non-response error, misinterpretation by respondents, incorrect coding and non-response imputation. Errors in the second group primarily result from undercoverage and, to a lesser extent, overcoverage. It should be noted that both types of errors are intrinsic to any survey data.

The coverage errors occur when dwellings and/or individuals are missed, incorrectly included (except for the 2006 and 2011 censuses, where people incorrectly included were not considered in the Census Overcoverage Study) or counted more than once. Following each census, Statistics Canada undertakes coverage studies to measure these errors. The main studies are the Reverse Record Check Survey (RRC) and the Census Overcoverage Study (COS). Based on these studies, estimates of census undercoverage and overcoverage are produced. Demography Division adjusts the population enumerated in the census by province and territory using these estimates.

When creating base populations, the Estimates Program corrects the census populations only for coverage errors. This correction, which is based on the findings of coverage studies, is primarily subject to sampling errors, and to a lesser extent, processing errors. Statistical tests indicate that coverage adjustments improve the quality of census data. The Estimates Program uses the estimates from coverage studies for the provinces and territories. However, given the size of the samples in these studies, estimates by age and sex are modelled. Furthermore, it is assumed that the coverage rates estimated for a province or territory apply to the regions within that geographic area. Prior to 1991, the Estimates Program used census data that was unadjusted for coverage errors. Coverage studies had been done to measure undercoverage, but none measured overcoverage. Following the decision to integrate a correction for the coverage to the enumerated population in 1991, the Program had to revise the population estimates for the period from 1971 to 1986. The correction is based on the findings of the coverage studies conducted during this period and on hypotheses regarding the ratio between the overcoverage and undercoverage levels based on the findings of subsequent coverage studies.

The corrections to the census data due to CNU improved, in general, the quality of the estimates by compensating for the differential undercoverage by age, sex and by province/territory across censuses.

Text table 1
Estimated census net undercoverage, Canada, provinces and territories, 2001, 2006 and 2011 censuses
Table summary
This table displays the results of Estimated census net undercoverage. The information is grouped by Geography (appearing as row headers), Census population, Census net undercoverage, Incompletely enumerated Indian reserves, Adjusted population, Rate, A, B, C, D=A+B+C and (B+C)/D*100, calculated using number and percent units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Geography Census population Census net undercoverage Incompletely enumerated Indian reserves Adjusted population Rate
A B C D=A+B+C (B+C)/D*100
number percent
2011Text table Note 1
Canada 33,476,688 759,125 37,392 34,273,205 2.32
Newfoundland and Labrador 514,536 10,192 0 524,728 1.94
Prince Edward Island 140,204 3,386 0 143,590 2.36
Nova Scotia 921,727 21,911 0 943,638 2.32
New Brunswick 751,171 3,930 0 755,101 0.52
Quebec 7,903,001 73,240 16,882 7,993,123 1.13
Ontario 12,851,821 369,874 14,926 13,236,621 2.91
Manitoba 1,208,268 21,698 608 1,230,574 1.81
Saskatchewan 1,033,381 29,580 768 1,063,729 2.85
Alberta 3,645,257 128,584 4,094 3,777,935 3.51
British Columbia 4,400,057 91,280 114 4,491,451 2.03
Yukon 33,897 1,356 0 35,253 3.85
Northwest Territories 41,462 1,977 0 43,439 4.55
Nunavut 31,906 2,117 0 34,023 6.22
2006Text table Note 1
Canada 31,612,897 868,658 40,115 32,521,670 2.79
Newfoundland and Labrador 505,469 5,046 0 510,515 0.99
Prince Edward Island 135,851 1,903 0 137,754 1.38
Nova Scotia 913,462 24,558 0 938,020 2.62
New Brunswick 729,997 16,059 0 746,056 2.15
Quebec 7,546,131 60,751 16,600 7,623,482 1.01
Ontario 12,160,282 465,824 15,391 12,641,497 3.81
Manitoba 1,148,401 34,330 0 1,182,731 2.90
Saskatchewan 968,157 22,594 739 991,490 2.35
Alberta 3,290,350 111,353 7,272 3,408,975 3.48
British Columbia 4,113,487 121,551 113 4,235,151 2.87
Yukon 30,372 1,805 0 32,177 5.61
Northwest Territories 41,464 1,620 0 43,084 3.76
Nunavut 29,474 1,264 0 30,738 4.11
2001Text table Note 1
Canada 30,007,094 924,430 34,539 30,966,063 3.10
Newfoundland and Labrador 512,930 9,401 0 522,331 1.80
Prince Edward Island 135,294 1,325 0 136,619 0.97
Nova Scotia 908,007 24,521 0 932,528 2.63
New Brunswick 729,498 20,095 0 749,593 2.68
Quebec 7,237,479 140,232 12,648 7,390,359 2.07
Ontario 11,410,046 436,349 15,960 11,862,355 3.81
Manitoba 1,119,583 30,903 110 1,150,596 2.70
Saskatchewan 978,933 21,231 581 1,000,745 2.18
Alberta 2,974,807 69,857 4,977 3,049,641 2.45
British Columbia 3,907,738 164,542 263 4,072,543 4.05
Yukon 28,674 1,423 0 30,097 4.73
Northwest Territories 37,360 3,295 0 40,655 8.10
Nunavut 26,745 1,256 0 28,001 4.49

The adjustment also incorporates the results of a study on the estimates of the number of people living on incompletely enumerated Indian reserves to complete the corrections for coverage errors in the census. The results of the coverage studies contain mainly sampling errors.

These adjustments have a direct impact on:

  • the error of closure and its distribution by age and sex within a province or a territory as well as by province/territory as the CNUNote 1 and its distribution vary from one census to another;
  • within-cohort consistency of population estimates. If for example, the male cohort in age group 0 to 4 in 1981 was tracked up to the 2001 Census (unadjusted for CNU)Note 1 the age group 20 to 24 would be noticeably smaller in 2001 than the age group 15 to 19 in 1996. Since Canada receives many immigrants within these age groups, the opposite would be expected. However, only after adjustment for CNU,Note 1 the cohort size increases from 1996 to 2001.
Text table 2
Census adjustment rates by age group, 2001, 2006 and 2011 censuses, Canada
Table summary
This table displays the results of Census adjustment rates by age group 2001, 2006 and 2011 (appearing as column headers).
2001 2006 2011
All ages 3.10 2.79 2.32
0 to 4 years 3.59 2.25 0.94
5 to 9 years 2.20 0.97 -0.23
10 to 14 years 1.09 0.96 0.11
15 to 19 years 2.95 3.15 2.93
20 to 24 years 7.11 7.57 6.79
25 to 29 years 8.28 8.89 8.28
30 to 34 years 6.40 6.84 6.72
35 to 39 years 4.64 4.96 4.15
40 to 44 years 2.72 4.15 2.54
45 to 49 years 1.52 1.74 1.93
50 to 54 years 1.35 0.67 1.01
55 to 59 years 1.17 0.01 0.05
60 to 64 years 0.71 -0.07 -0.25
65 to 69 years 0.78 -0.46 -0.38
70 to 74 years 0.86 -0.72 -0.49
75 to 79 years 0.48 -0.48 -0.51
80 to 84 years 0.54 -0.70 -0.51
85 to 89 years -1.52 -0.33 -0.49
90 to 94 years -5.45 -11.54 -0.47
95 to 99 years -0.08 -6.64 -9.44
100 years and over -9.58 -7.37 -11.85

For further information regarding the main coverage studies, please see the following document on Statistics Canada’s web site: 199620012006 and 2011 Census Technical Report on Coverage.

Components

Errors due to estimation methodologies and data sources other than the census can also be significant.

A. Births and deaths

Since the law requires the recording of vital statistics, the final estimates for births and deaths data meet very high standards. Nevertheless, since preliminary estimates are derived, they can be slightly different from final estimates.

B. Immigration and non-permanent residents

With respect to immigrants and non-permanent residents, Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) administers special data files on both of these components. Since immigration is controlled by law, data on immigrants and NPRs are compiled upon arrival in Canada. These data represent only “legal” immigration and exclude illegal immigrants. Thus, for the “legal” part of international movement into Canada, the data are considered to be of high quality. However, some biases such as the difference between the stated province of intended residence at the time of arrival and the actual province of residence, may persist. Finally, since information provided by the Visitor Data System (VDS) from IRPA is not complete (age and sex of dependents, province of residence for certain groups of permit holders), estimates of NPRs are more prone to error than data on immigrants.

C. Emigration, returning emigration and net temporary emigration

Of all the demographic components that are used in the population estimates program, the emigration, returning emigration and net temporary emigration are the most difficult to estimate with precision. Canada does not have a complete border registration system. While immigration and non-permanent residents (NPRs) are well documented by the federal government, Statistics Canada has always used indirect techniques for the estimation of the number of persons leaving the country. For this reason, available statistics regarding these three components have historically been of a lower quality than other components.

Estimates of the number of emigrants and returning emigrants are both derived using Canada child benefit (CCB) data (formerly Canada child tax benefit (CCTB)) provided by Canada Revenue Agency (CRA). Estimates must be adjusted to take into account the incomplete coverage of the program and to derive the emigration and returning emigration of adults.

These adjustments and the delay in obtaining the data are the two main sources of errors. As current information on the number of persons living temporarily abroad does not exist, estimates are based on the Reverse Record Check (RRC) and the census. Estimates for the intercensal period, distributed equally among the five years, are maintained constant for the postcensal period. Moreover, assumptions were made to allow for the distribution of annual estimates to a quarterly level. Any geographical or quarterly variation may introduce error in the estimation of these components.

D. Interprovincial migration

Since July 1993, preliminaryNote 2 interprovincial migration estimates have been based on Canada child benefit (CCB) files (formerly Canada child tax benefit (CCTB)). As this program covers only children, various adjustments must be done in order to derive the migration of adults. Consequently, preliminary CCB based estimates are subject to larger error than final estimates derived from Canada Revenue Agency (CRA) tax files.

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E. Level of detail of components

As a more detailed breakdown of the data introduces a greater risk of inaccuracy into the estimates, the possibility of error in the components is augmented by the method used to distribute the estimates by age and sex. It seems that, in general, the initial errors should be minimal where the distribution of annual estimates of births, deaths and immigrants is concerned, and more significant with regard to the distribution of other components (non-permanent residents, emigrants, returning emigrants, net temporary emigrants and interprovincial migrants). Finally, the size of error due to the age and sex distribution may vary by period and errors in some components may have a greater impact on a given age group or sex.

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Quality assessment

In order to assess the quality of our estimates, two evaluation measures are used: precocity errors and errors of closure.

A. Precocity error

The quality of preliminary estimates of components is evaluated using precocity errors. Precocity error is defined as the difference between preliminary and final estimates of a particular component in terms of its relative proportion of the total population for the relevant geographical area. It can be calculated for both population and component estimates. The precocity error measures the impact of the trade-off of accuracy in favour of timeliness on the estimated population. The annual precocity error of a component is calculated as:

P E (t1,t) = ( N (t1,t) preliminary N (t1,t) final ) P (t1) postcensal ×1,000 MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq=Jc9 vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0=yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr=x fr=xb9adbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGaamiuaiaadw eadaWgaaWcbaGaaiikaiaadshacqGHsislcaWGPbGaaiilaiaadsha caGGPaaabeaakiabg2da9maalaaabaGaaiikaiaad6eadaqhaaWcba GaaiikaiaadshacqGHsislcaWGPbGaaiilaiaadshacaGGPaaabaae aaaaaaaaa8qacaWGWbGaamOCaiaadwgacaWGSbGaamyAaiaad2gaca WGPbGaamOBaiaadggacaWGYbGaamyEaaaak8aacqGHsislcaWGobWa a0baaSqaaiaacIcacaWG0bGaeyOeI0IaamyAaiaacYcacaWG0bGaai ykaaqaaiaadAgacaWGPbGaamOBaiaadggacaWGSbaaaOGaaiykaaqa aiaadcfadaqhaaWcbaGaaiikaiaadshacqGHsislcaWGPbGaaiykaa qaaiaadchacaWGVbGaam4CaiaadshacaWGJbGaamyzaiaad6gacaWG ZbGaamyyaiaadYgaaaaaaOGaey41aqRaaGymaiaacYcacaaIWaGaaG imaiaaicdaaaa@7249@

where,

P E (t1,t) MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq=Jc9 vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0=yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr=x fr=xb9adbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGaamiuaiaadw eadaWgaaWcbaGaaiikaiaadshacqGHsislcaWGPbGaaiilaiaadsha caGGPaaabeaaaaa@3D97@
= the precocity error for the period from t-1 to t;

 

N (t1,t) preliminary MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq=Jc9 vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0=yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr=x fr=xb9adbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGaamOtamaaDa aaleaacaGGOaGaamiDaiabgkHiTiaadMgacaGGSaGaamiDaiaacMca aeaaqaaaaaaaaaWdbiaadchacaWGYbGaamyzaiaadYgacaWGPbGaam yBaiaadMgacaWGUbGaamyyaiaadkhacaWG5baaaaaa@474F@
= the preliminary estimate of a component of demographic shange;

 

N (t1,t) final MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq=Jc9 vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0=yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr=x fr=xb9adbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGaamOtamaaDa aaleaacaGGOaGaamiDaiabgkHiTiaadMgacaGGSaGaamiDaiaacMca aeaacaWGMbGaamyAaiaad6gacaWGHbGaamiBaaaaaaa@416F@
= the final estimate of a component of demographic change;

 

P (t1) postcensal MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq=Jc9 vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0=yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr=x fr=xb9adbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGaamiuamaaDa aaleaacaGGOaGaamiDaiabgkHiTiaadMgacaGGPaaabaGaamiCaiaa d+gacaWGZbGaamiDaiaadogacaWGLbGaamOBaiaadohacaWGHbGaam iBaaaaaaa@4493@
= postcensal estimates of population for the relevant geographical area at time t-1.

 

Precocity error allows for useful comparisons between components, as well as between provinces and territories or geographical areas of different population size. Precocity error can either be positive or negative. A positive precocity error denotes that the preliminary estimate is larger than the final estimate while a negative precocity error indicates the opposite. As precocity errors measure differences between preliminary and final estimates, small precocity errors refer to those that are close to zero per thousand.

Precocity error by component for Canada

At the national level, immigration component yielded the smallest precocity errors, with values close to zero per thousand throughout the years under consideration. On the other hand, interprovincial in-migrants and out-migrantsNote 6  yielded the greatest precocity errors, ranging between 0.07 per thousand and 2.24 per thousand during the period 2012/2013 to 2015/2016 (see Text table 3).

Text table 3
Most up-to-date annual precocity errors for components, Canada, provinces and territories
Table summary
This table displays the results of Most up-to-date annual precocity errors for components. The information is grouped by Year/Component (appearing as row headers), Canada, N.L., P.E.I., N.S., N.B., Que., Ont., Man., Sask., Alta., B.C., Y.T., N.W.T. and Nvt., calculated using per thousand units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Year/Component Canada N.L. P.E.I. N.S. N.B. Que. Ont. Man. Sask. Alta. B.C. Y.T. N.W.T. Nvt.
per thousand
Births
2009/2010 0.06 -0.91 -0.07 -0.30 -0.46 0.00 0.15 0.03 -0.11 0.38 -0.03 -0.12 0.05 -1.67
2010/2011 0.27 0.12 0.43 0.47 0.31 -0.03 0.38 0.52 0.22 0.73 -0.04 -0.35 1.23 0.39
2011/2012 0.08 0.86 0.11 -0.07 0.09 0.01 0.06 0.22 0.36 0.24 -0.02 -1.55 -0.05 0.29
2012/2013 0.06 -0.06 0.70 0.33 0.12 -0.02 0.14 -0.37 0.03 0.13 -0.01 1.00 0.21 -0.69
Deaths
2009/2010 0.31 0.65 0.28 0.57 0.58 -0.02 0.56 0.44 0.33 0.36 -0.05 -0.30 -0.14 -0.12
2010/2011 0.22 0.54 0.69 0.05 0.50 0.01 0.36 0.24 0.15 0.43 -0.04 0.84 1.03 0.12
2011/2012 0.31 0.08 0.67 0.38 0.54 0.07 0.58 0.30 0.13 0.32 -0.04 0.08 0.23 0.41
2012/2013 0.05 -0.06 0.33 0.15 0.14 0.02 0.05 0.30 0.16 0.02 -0.03 -0.31 -0.41 -0.23
Immigration
2012/2013 -0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
2013/2014 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 -0.01 -0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
2014/2015 -0.03 -0.01 -0.02 -0.01 -0.01 -0.02 -0.03 -0.07 -0.05 -0.04 -0.04 -0.08 -0.02 0.00
2015/2016 -0.06 -0.03 -0.05 -0.06 -0.03 -0.03 -0.05 -0.13 -0.13 -0.11 -0.09 0.00 -0.02 0.00
Emigration
2009/2010 0.05 0.46 0.38 -0.12 -0.01 0.03 0.08 0.41 -0.20 0.78 -0.67 0.62 1.31 1.02
2010/2011 -0.13 0.08 -0.81 -0.28 -0.05 -0.08 -0.18 0.48 -0.05 0.51 -0.75 0.46 0.11 0.46
2011/2012 -0.31 -0.07 -0.23 -0.55 0.14 -0.03 -0.37 0.50 -0.16 -0.27 -0.94 -1.16 -0.14 0.35
2012/2013 -0.09 -0.32 0.02 -0.01 0.07 0.05 -0.13 0.18 -0.05 -0.16 -0.24 -0.89 0.14 0.43
Returning emigration
2009/2010 -0.27 -0.04 0.34 -0.17 -0.19 -0.20 -0.30 -0.06 -0.17 -0.32 -0.41 -0.74 0.00 -0.09
2010/2011 -0.33 -0.16 -0.07 -0.17 -0.06 -0.22 -0.40 -0.21 -0.19 -0.64 -0.24 -0.43 0.00 0.00
2011/2012 -0.11 0.02 -0.27 -0.04 0.18 -0.10 -0.13 -0.19 -0.16 -0.25 0.04 0.20 0.00 0.09
2012/2013 -0.01 0.06 -0.44 0.01 0.07 -0.04 0.00 -0.14 0.15 0.07 -0.07 0.33 -0.34 0.00
Net temporary emigration
2009/2010 0.05 0.26 0.25 0.26 0.26 0.08 0.19 0.13 0.05 0.01 -0.49 0.03 -0.02 0.06
2010/2011 0.05 0.26 0.22 0.26 0.26 0.08 0.18 0.13 0.06 0.01 -0.48 0.03 -0.02 0.09
2011/2012 0.31 0.48 0.46 0.48 0.48 0.24 0.50 0.34 0.16 0.28 -0.12 0.23 0.30 0.26
2012/2013 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.07 -0.09
Net non-permanent residents
2009/2010 -0.04 0.02 -0.04 0.01 0.00 -0.06 -0.08 0.08 0.02 -0.02 0.00 0.41 0.00 0.09
2010/2011 -0.08 -0.03 0.02 -0.01 0.00 -0.09 -0.08 -0.05 -0.06 -0.20 -0.05 -0.14 -0.36 -0.03
2011/2012 0.02 0.46 1.08 0.32 0.56 -0.19 -0.20 0.46 1.37 1.54 -0.95 3.19 1.38 -0.12
2012/2013 -0.02 0.16 0.98 -0.22 0.08 0.76 -0.85 0.10 0.42 0.97 0.01 -0.28 -0.09 -0.12
In-migrants
2012/2013 2.24 3.45 5.87 3.21 3.94 0.91 1.12 3.59 5.98 7.27 1.34 17.36 11.33 15.47
2013/2014 1.27 1.44 2.96 2.03 2.25 0.70 0.79 2.85 4.96 3.55 -0.10 2.87 4.23 13.61
2014/2015 0.07 0.38 -1.13 1.22 0.68 0.11 -0.08 0.03 1.22 1.04 -1.21 7.80 4.65 16.25
2015/2016 0.22 1.11 0.01 -0.49 0.53 0.04 -0.05 0.23 0.42 1.78 -0.21 -1.64 4.91 10.82
Out-migrants
2012/2013 2.24 6.05 7.07 5.71 3.85 0.80 1.67 2.96 4.67 3.64 2.65 13.70 17.32 9.34
2013/2014 1.27 6.07 3.07 1.61 2.99 0.58 0.74 1.25 2.19 2.72 1.47 12.76 10.92 -0.48
2014/2015 0.07 3.33 2.71 0.13 0.69 -0.07 -0.08 0.88 0.03 -0.74 0.50 7.71 9.87 7.79
2015/2016 0.22 1.04 5.18 1.41 2.08 0.15 0.16 1.02 -0.08 -1.15 0.49 18.10 8.78 10.79
Net interprovincial migration
2012/2013 Note ...: not applicable -2.60 -1.19 -2.50 0.10 0.11 -0.55 0.63 1.31 3.63 -1.32 3.66 -5.99 6.14
2013/2014 Note ...: not applicable -4.62 -0.11 0.42 -0.74 0.12 0.04 1.60 2.77 0.83 -1.57 -9.89 -6.69 14.09
2014/2015 Note ...: not applicable -2.95 -3.84 1.09 -0.01 0.18 0.00 -0.84 1.19 1.78 -1.71 0.08 -5.22 8.46
2015/2016 Note ...: not applicable 0.07 -5.17 -1.90 -1.55 -0.12 -0.21 -0.79 0.49 2.93 -0.71 -19.74 -3.87 0.03

Precocity errors for births were mostly small when compared to other components, with the largest precocity error of 0.27 per thousand in 2010/2011. Similar to births, precocity errors for deaths were also low, with values lower or equal to 0.31 per thousand.

Precocity errors for emigration and returning emigration were mostly negative. During the years under consideration, precocity error for emigration was lowest in 2009/2010 at 0.05 per thousand and largest in 2011/2012 at -0.31 per thousand. For returning emigration, the values ranged from -0.01 per thousand in 2012/2013 to -0.33 per thousand in 2010/2011. During the period 2009/2010 to 2012/2013, the precocity errors for net temporary emigration were positive and low, at 0.05 per thousand in 2009/2010 and 2010/2011; it then increased slightly to 0.31 per thousand in 2011/2012 before dropping to close to zero per thousand in 2012/2013.

Precocity errors for net non-permanent residents were mostly negative and low during the period under consideration. Precocity error was at -0.04 per thousand in 2009/2010; it then increased slightly to -0.08 in 2010/2011. Precocity error for net non-permanent residents was positive in 2011/2012, at 0.02 per thousand yet it was negative again in 2012/2013, at -0.02 per thousand.

Precocity error by component for provinces and territories

In general, precocity error is typically larger for smaller provinces or territories as it is an error measurement relative to population size. At the provincial and territorial level, precocity errors for births were small, ranging from close to zero per thousand (Quebec in 2009/2010)Note 7 to -1.67 per thousand (Nunavut in 2009/2010). Similar to births, precocity errors for deaths were also low; and they were predominantly positive. Over the years, the largest precocity error for deaths was 1.03 per thousand (Northwest Territories in 2010/2011).

Compared to other demographic components, precocity errors for immigration were low among the provinces and territories, with absolute error values no more than 0.13 per thousand over the current years.

Precocity errors for the net change in the number of non-permanent residents were also low during the years 2009/2010 and 2010/2011, with absolute error values less than or equal to 0.41 per thousand across the provinces and territories. Precocity errors were higher in 2011/2012 and 2012/2013, ranging from 0.01 per thousand for British Columbia (2012/2013) to 3.19 per thousand for Yukon (2011/2012).

Precocity errors for emigration ranged from the lowest at -0.01 per thousand (New Brunswick in 2009/2010 and Nova Scotia in 2012/2013) to the largest at 1.31 per thousand (Northwest Territories in 2009/2010). Precocity errors for returning emigration were mostly negative; the values ranged from close to zero per thousand for some years in Northwest Territories, Nunavut and Ontario to -0.74 per thousand for Yukon in 2009/2010. Precocity errors for net temporary emigration were positive during the years under consideration, except for British Columbia (2009/2010 to 2011/2012), Northwest Territories (2009/2010 and 2010/2011) and Nunavut (2012/2013).

Precocity errors for interprovincial in-migrants and out-migrants show that final estimates of these components were systematically lower than preliminary estimates in 2012/2013 and 2013/2014 (with one exception for in-migrants and also one exception for out-migrants). Compared to previous years, precocity errors for interprovincial in-migrants and out-migrants were considerably lower in 2014/2015 and 2015/2016 as a new method was implemented to estimate interprovincial migration which resulted in less overestimation of preliminary estimatesNote 8 

At the provincial level, the largest absolute precocity error value for net interprovincial migration was -5.17 per thousand (Prince Edward Island in 2015/2016), while the smallest was close to zero per thousand (Ontario in 2014/2015). At the territorial level, precocity errors for net interprovincial migration were comparatively higher, the smallest precocity error was 0.03 per thousand (Nunavut in 2015/2016) and the largest was -19.74 per thousand (Yukon in 2015/2016).

Contribution of components to the sum of precocity errors

When looking at aggregated estimates of precocity errors, there is the potential for a “netting-out” effect, referring to negative precocity errors in one component canceling out positive errors in another component. The analysis of the contribution of each component to the sum of precocity errors without the netting-out effect can be done by using absolute values of the precocity errors. A mean absolute percentage precocity error by component is calculated by dividing the mean absolute precocity error by component by its sum and expressed in percentage. In this case, the mean absolute precocity error by component is the mean of the absolute precocity errors for the 2008/2009 to 2012/2013 period.

At the national level, the mean absolute precocity error for the total emigrationNote 9  component contributed the most to the sum of mean absolute precocity errors (56.41%), followed by deaths (25.35%) and births (12.54%), between 2008/2009 and 2012/2013. Immigration and net non-permanent residents each accounted for less than 6.0% to the sum of mean absolute precocity errors (refer to Text table 4).

Text table 4
Mean absolute percentage precocity error by components, 2008/2009 to 2012/2013, Canada, provinces and territories
Table summary
This table displays the results of Mean absolute percentage precocity error by components Births, Deaths, Immigration, Total emigration, Net non-permanent residents, Net interprovincial migration and Total, calculated using percent units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Births Deaths Immigration Total emigrationText table Note 1 Net non-permanent residents Net interprovincial migration Total
percent
Canada 12.54 25.35 0.45 56.41 5.25 0.00 100.00
Newfoundland and Labrador 14.36 10.88 0.52 16.42 3.47 54.35 100.00
Prince Edward Island 7.04 8.42 2.59 16.03 8.32 57.60 100.00
Nova Scotia 9.50 12.90 0.64 22.19 4.35 50.42 100.00
New Brunswick 18.84 24.54 0.45 28.15 8.52 19.51 100.00
Quebec 1.76 4.92 4.31 35.14 27.21 26.67 100.00
Ontario 8.45 21.09 1.75 38.84 14.82 15.04 100.00
Manitoba 11.96 16.19 2.99 34.97 7.61 26.29 100.00
Saskatchewan 6.85 10.30 1.66 17.21 16.37 47.61 100.00
Alberta 8.65 6.87 2.58 20.35 15.99 45.56 100.00
British Columbia 1.15 1.85 1.29 54.60 8.59 32.52 100.00
Yukon 9.69 4.98 0.94 13.17 10.00 61.22 100.00
Northwest Territories 3.69 3.38 0.43 5.89 3.28 83.34 100.00
Nunavut 6.37 3.20 0.13 6.73 0.80 82.78 100.00

At the provincial and territorial level, the contribution of individual component to the sum of mean absolute precocity errors was not uniform across the country. Net interprovincial migration accounted for the largest share of the sum of mean absolute precocity errors in eight out of the thirteen provinces and territories, ranging from 45.56% in Alberta to 83.34% in Northwest Territories. In New Brunswick (28.15%), Quebec (35.14%), Ontario (38.84%), Manitoba (34.97%) and British Columbia (54.60%), it is the total emigration that explain the largest share of the mean absolute precocity errors (refer to Text table 4).

On the other hand, births accounted for the smallest share of the sum of mean absolute precocity errors in Quebec (1.76%) and British Columbia (1.15%). For the rest of the provinces and territories, immigration accounted for the smallest share of the sum of mean absolute precocity errors, at 2.99% or below. The lower precocity errors for births and deaths in Quebec and British Columbia compared to other provinces may be related to the special treatment of preliminary estimates for these two components.Note 10 

Start of text box

Precocity errors by age and sex are not currently available.

End of text box

B. Error of closure

The error of closure measures the exactness of the final postcensal estimates. It is defined as the difference between the final postcensal population estimates on Census Day and the enumerated population of the most recent census adjusted for census net undercoverage (CNUNote 1). A positive error of closure means that the postcensal population estimates have overestimated the population.

The error of closure comes from two sources: errors primarily due to sampling when measuring census coverage and errors related to the components of population growth over the intercensal period. For each five-year intercensal period, the error of closure can only be calculated following the release of census data and estimates of CNUNote 1. The error of closure can be calculated for the total population of each province and territory as well as by age and sex.

Text table 5 shows postcensal population estimates on May 10, 2011 and census counts adjusted for CNUNote 1 and the errors of closure for Canada, provinces and territories for 2001, 2006 and 2011.

For Canada as a whole, the error of closure was estimated at 171,115 or 0.50% in 2011. This is an increase over the errors for 2001 (0.16%) and 2006 (0.14%).

The population estimates overestimated the population of six provinces, two territories and Canada as a whole. Four provinces and two territories posted errors of closure greater than 1% or less than -1%. Of these jurisdictions, only Newfoundland and Labrador’s estimated population differed from the adjusted census population by more than 2% (-2.09%). In 2006, two provinces and three territories posted errors of closure greater than 1% or less than -1%, while this was the case for three provinces and two territories in 2001.

By considering the variance in CNU, it is possible to identify errors of closure that are statistically significant. Text table 5 shows the results of this analysis.

The error of closure is statistically significant for Canada, five provinces and one territory. This means that the population estimates significantly overestimated or underestimated the adjusted census population in these jurisdictions. As noted above, these results are due to both the sampling for census coverage studies and errors in the components of population growth over the intercensal period. Among these components, interprovincial migration and emigration are mostly associated with large errors of closure.

Text table 5
Error of closure of the population estimates, Canada, provinces and territories, 2001, 2006 and 2011
Table summary
This table displays the results of Error of closure of the population estimates. The information is grouped by Geography (appearing as row headers), Postcensal estimate on Census Day, Census adjusted for CNU, Error of closure, CNU standard error, t value, A, B, C=A-B, D=C/B*100, E and F=C/E, calculated using number and % units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Geography Postcensal estimate on Census Day Census adjusted for CNUText table Note 1 Error of closure CNU standard errorText table Note 2 t valueText table Note 3
A B C=A-B D=C/B*100 E F=C/E
number % number
2011
Canada 34,444,320 34,273,205 171,115 0.50 57,546 2.97
Newfoundland and Labrador 513,745 524,728 -10,983 -2.09 2,912 -3.77
Prince Edward Island 145,745 143,590 2,155 1.50 923 2.33
Nova Scotia 948,697 943,638 5,059 0.54 5,346 0.95
New Brunswick 756,630 755,101 1,529 0.20 3,335 0.46
Quebec 7,972,672 7,993,123 -20,451 -0.26 23,660 -0.86
Ontario 13,360,099 13,236,621 123,478 0.93 44,121 2.80
Manitoba 1,252,662 1,230,574 22,088 1.79 6,104 3.62
Saskatchewan 1,055,988 1,063,729 -7,741 -0.73 6,306 -1.23
Alberta 3,776,676 3,777,935 -1,259 -0.03 18,046 -0.07
British Columbia 4,548,383 4,491,451 56,932 1.27 19,494 2.92
Yukon 35,364 35,253 111 0.31 303 0.37
Northwest Territories 44,113 43,439 674 1.55 323 2.09
Nunavut 33,546 34,023 -477 -1.40 608 -0.78
2006
Canada 32,565,797 32,521,670 44,127 0.14 53,926 0.82
Newfoundland and Labrador 508,881 510,515 -1,634 -0.32 2,710 -0.60
Prince Edward Island 137,748 137,754 -6 0.00 701 -0.01
Nova Scotia 933,827 938,020 -4,193 -0.45 4,885 -0.86
New Brunswick 748,785 746,056 2,729 0.37 3,105 0.88
Quebec 7,646,288 7,623,482 22,806 0.30 24,077 0.95
Ontario 12,664,181 12,641,497 22,684 0.18 41,363 0.55
Manitoba 1,176,919 1,182,731 -5,812 -0.49 6,469 -0.90
Saskatchewan 987,735 991,490 -3,755 -0.38 4,805 -0.78
Alberta 3,358,568 3,408,975 -50,407 -1.48 16,091 -3.13
British Columbia 4,299,225 4,235,151 64,074 1.51 16,591 3.86
Yukon 31,151 32,177 -1,026 -3.19 194 -5.29
Northwest Territories 42,165 43,084 -919 -2.13 236 -3.89
Nunavut 30,324 30,738 -414 -1.35 176 -2.35
2001
Canada 31,016,011 30,966,063 49,948 0.16 44,749 1.12
Newfoundland and Labrador 533,712 522,331 11,381 2.18 1,782 6.39
Prince Edward Island 138,102 136,619 1,483 1.09 775 1.91
Nova Scotia 941,533 932,528 9,005 0.97 4,170 2.16
New Brunswick 754,180 749,593 4,587 0.61 3,555 1.29
Quebec 7,390,137 7,390,359 -222 0.00 21,033 -0.01
Ontario 11,873,643 11,862,355 11,288 0.10 33,472 0.34
Manitoba 1,149,561 1,150,596 -1,035 -0.09 5,423 -0.19
Saskatchewan 1,016,762 1,000,745 16,017 1.60 4,333 3.70
Alberta 3,051,245 3,049,641 1,604 0.05 11,308 0.14
British Columbia 4,068,196 4,072,543 -4,347 -0.11 15,598 -0.28
Yukon 29,737 30,097 -360 -1.20 372 -0.97
Northwest Territories 41,152 40,655 497 1.22 362 1.37
Nunavut 28,051 28,001 50 0.18 411 0.12
Start of text box

The error of closure can be calculated for total population estimates and for age and sex.

End of text box
Text table 6
Error of closure of the estimates of population by age and sex, 2011, Canada
Table summary
This table displays the results of Error of closure of the estimates of population by age and sex Both sexes, Male and Female, calculated using number and percent units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Both sexes Male Female
number percent number percent number percent
All ages 171,115 0.50 106,575 0.63 64,540 0.37
0 to 4 years -2,858 -0.15 -1,230 -0.13 -1,628 -0.18
5 to 9 years 7,103 0.39 7,335 0.79 -232 -0.03
10 to 14 years -11,323 -0.59 -7,534 -0.76 -3,789 -0.41
15 to 19 years -27,000 -1.20 -14,131 -1.23 -12,869 -1.17
20 to 24 years 57,072 2.43 45,444 3.82 11,628 1.00
25 to 29 years 37,002 1.56 30,391 2.56 6,611 0.56
30 to 34 years 15,628 0.67 9,178 0.79 6,450 0.55
35 to 39 years 30,962 1.37 22,281 1.97 8,681 0.76
40 to 44 years 24,969 1.05 19,074 1.60 5,895 0.50
45 to 49 years 36,839 1.35 18,069 1.32 18,770 1.39
50 to 54 years -22,008 -0.82 -17,096 -1.27 -4,912 -0.37
55 to 59 years 2,186 0.09 -12,272 -1.05 14,458 1.23
60 to 64 years -19,302 -0.94 -18,885 -1.87 -417 -0.04
65 to 69 years 13,622 0.90 5,555 0.75 8,067 1.03
70 to 74 years -2,888 -0.25 494 0.09 -3,382 -0.56
75 to 79 years 3,779 0.41 2,819 0.68 960 0.19
80 to 84 years 4,182 0.60 4,454 1.54 -272 -0.07
85 to 89 years 14,958 3.52 9,380 6.32 5,578 2.02
90 to 94 years 9,758 5.76 4,787 9.95 4,971 4.10
95 to 99 years -3,490 -9.01 -1,689 -21.24 -1,801 -5.85
100 years and over 1,924 36.95 151 20.91 1,773 39.53

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