Quarterly Demographic Estimates
April to June 2020

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Release date: September 29, 2020

Highlights

• Canada’s population surpassed the 38-million mark during the second quarter of 2020 to reach 38,005,238 on July 1, 2020. This was an increase of 25,384 (+0.1%) from April 1, 2020. This is the lowest growth for a second quarter over the period for which equivalent data are available (second quarters for 1972 to 2020). Comparatively, the second quarters of both 2018 and 2019 had two of the highest growth rates over the same period (both at +0.5% - the growth rate in the second quarter of 1989 was also +0.5%). The slower growth in the second quarter of 2020 is due mainly to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.
• The COVID-19 pandemic first came to Canada in January 2020. The demographic effects of the pandemic began in March, with 96 deaths and the international borders being restricted mid-month. The impacts accelerated in the second quarter, with the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) reporting 8,495 deaths in the quarter and with the border restrictions resulting in significant reductions in international migration
• Also based on PHAC data, most of the COVID-19 deaths in the second quarter were concentrated in Quebec (5,472) and Ontario (2,639). According to preliminary estimates, there were 79,050 deaths in the second quarter of 2020, which is 8,532 (12.1%) more than in the second quarter of 2019, and the most deaths reported in a second quarter since the beginning of the current demographic accounting system.
• International migration (immigrants and net non-permanent residents minus net emigration^{Note 1}) is usually the main driver of Canada’s population growth, but the restrictions on international borders in mid-March had a significant impact on this factor of growth. International migration has accounted for more than 50% of growth in every second quarter since 1994, reaching a height of 86.5% in the second quarter of 2019. However, this dropped to 38.2% (+9,700 persons) in the second quarter of 2020.
• The remainder of the growth, 61.8% (+15,684 persons), came from natural increase, or the number of births (94,734) minus the number of deaths (79,050). However, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, natural increase was negative in Quebec (-400) for the first time in any quarter since comparable record keeping began (1971).
• Canada welcomed 34,271 immigrants in the second quarter of 2020, down from 94,281 in the second quarter of 2019 (-63.7%). This was the lowest number of immigrants received in a second quarter since 1986 (24,418).
• The net number of non-permanent residents in the second quarter of 2020 was negative for the first time since 1994. This means that Canada lost more non-permanent residents than it gained over the second quarter of 2020, resulting in a net loss of 24,768. Much of these losses were in study permit holders and in a reduction in the number of asylum claimants, which is consistent with pandemic-related travel restrictions.  
• For the second quarter of 2020, the highest population growth was recorded in Nunavut (+1.0%). Newfoundland and Labrador (-0.2%), Saskatchewan (-0.1%) and the Northwest Territories (-0.1%) all lost population during the second quarter of 2020. Compared to the growth rates from the second quarter of 2019, all provinces had lower growth in the second quarter of 2020. This is also the first time Saskatchewan recorded a population loss in the second quarter since 2005.
• British Columbia (+7,940) and Nova Scotia (+1,443) gained the most from interprovincial migration in the second quarter. The greatest losses of population to interprovincial migration were found in Saskatchewan (-2,874), Alberta (-2,733), Manitoba (-1,837), and Ontario (-1,435).

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