Quarterly Demographic Estimates
Notice to readers

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Estimates released in this publication are based on the 2016 Census counts adjusted for census net undercoverage and incompletely enumerated Indian reserves to which is added the estimated demographic growth for the period going from May 10, 2016 to the date of the estimate.

These estimates are not to be mistaken with the 2016 Census counts.

The analysis in this publication is based on preliminary data. These data will be revised over the coming years, and it is possible that some trends described in this publication will change as a result of these revisions. Therefore, this publication should be interpreted with caution.

Most of the components, used to produce preliminary population estimates, are estimated using demographic models or based on data sources less complete or reliable, albeit more timely, than those used for updated or final estimates.

Certain components of the demographic estimates were adjusted to account for the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic (deaths and the components of emigration). As the adjustments follow what was done in the second quarter of 2020 (see Technical Supplement: Production of Demographic Estimates for the Second Quarter of 2020 in the Context of COVID-19), a technical supplement was not produced for the fourth quarter. For this quarter, the returning emigration component was adjusted the same way as in the third quarter. For the first two quarters of the year, the variation of monthly rates of persons registered in the Register of Canadians Abroad (ROCA) returning to Canada was applied to the adjusted number of entries from Primary Inspection Kiosks (PIK). For the third and fourth quarters, the ratio between ROCA and PIK data was instead applied to the adjusted PIK numbers.