Analysis

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On April 1, 2009, Canada’s population was estimated at 33,592,700, an increase of 88,000 from January 1, 2009, or up 0.26%, the highest rate for a first quarter since 2001.

The faster pace of population growth in the country is largely due to an increase in net international migration. In the first quarter of 2009, net international migration was nearly 65,000, up 5,900 from the same period in 2008.

In the first quarter of 2009, Canada’s natural increase (births minus deaths) was 23,000, down slightly from the same quarter last year.

The number of non-permanent residents in Canada rises sharply

The upward movement in Canada’s net international migration in the first quarter of 2009 is attributable to an increase in the number of non-permanent residents. The net number of non-permanent residents was 23,800 in the first three months of 2009, compared with 15,600 in the first quarter of 2008.

During that period, Canada received 50,800 new immigrants, a decline of nearly 2,400 from the same quarter in 2008.

The first quarter of 2009 saw the continuation of the upward trend that has been observed in the number of non-permanent residents since the beginning of 2007. In the last four quarters, the number of non-permanent residents in Canada grew by 16.8%, nearly 14 times faster than the total population.

The increase in the number of non-permanent residents was seen across the country. In the first quarter, the number rose in every province and territory except Newfoundland and Labrador and the Northwest Territories.

Population growth still strong in the West

Except for Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia and the Northwest Territories, all provinces and territories posted a population increase in the first quarter of 2009.

Population growth remained stronger in Western Canada in the first quarter. All four provinces west of Ontario experienced higher growth than Canada as a whole.

Alberta was still the province with the highest population growth in the country. Its population growth rate (0.59%) was more than double the Canadian rate in the first quarter of 2009. In addition to leading the other provinces in natural increase, Alberta had a higher net interprovincial migration rate than any other province. The province also had a net gain of 4,600 non-permanent residents, a record increase for a first quarter. In the first quarter of 2009, the number of non-permanent residents in Alberta grew by 5.6%.

Despite posting its first decline in net interprovincial migration since the second quarter of 2003, British Columbia had the second-highest population growth for a Canadian province (0.35%). The province’s interprovincial migration losses are primarily due to an increase in out-migration to Alberta. In its exchanges with Alberta, British Columbia lost nearly 900 people in the first three months of 2009, compared with a gain of 1,700 in the first quarter of 2008.

British Columbia also posted its highest net international migration for a first quarter since 1996. That is largely attributable to a record increase in the number of non-permanent residents for a first quarter. In the first quarter of 2009, the number of non-permanent residents in the province grew by 5,700. The increase during the same period in 2008 was 2,800.

Despite smaller gains in interprovincial migration, Saskatchewan enjoyed positive growth (0.32%) for a twelfth consecutive quarter. Its population has been growing faster than the national population since the second quarter of 2007. The province’s growth in the first quarter of 2009 was mostly due to its net international migration of 2,000, a record for any quarter. While immigration remained steady but high, the number of non-permanent residents was up sharply.

Manitoba posted its highest population growth for a first quarter (0.28%) since 1984, despite losses in interprovincial migration. The province’s net international migration was 2,700, a first-quarter record. The gain was largely attributable to the fact that the province had not received so many immigrants (2,900) in a first quarter since 1971, when the current statistical program was established. Manitoba’s immigration rate has been higher than the national rate since the first quarter of 2006.

Moderate growth for Ontario

In the first quarter, Ontario’s population growth (0.21%) remained lower than national growth. For that period, the province posted a net decline of more than 5,000 in interprovincial migration, the largest first-quarter loss since 1975. The increase in the interprovincial migration deficit is primarily due to higher out-migration to the western provinces.

While immigration is relatively high in a number of provinces, Ontario’s attractiveness to new Canadian immigrants continues to fade. In the first quarter, the province received just under 42% of all new immigrants. Between 1987 and 2005, Ontario generally received more than half of the country’s immigrants.

Nevertheless, Ontario’s population passed the 13,000,000 mark in the first three months of 2009.

Quebec: highest growth since 1991

Quebec enjoyed its largest population growth (0.22%) for a first quarter since 1991, despite higher net losses in interprovincial migration. In the first three months of 2009, the province’s net interprovincial migration was at -2,000, compared with -1,800 in the first quarter of 2008.

In addition to a continuing increase in the number of births and slightly higher immigration, the province also experienced substantial growth in the number of non-permanent residents. In the first quarter of 2009, the number of non-permanent residents in Quebec increased by more than 4,500. The net gain during the same period in 2008 was just under 2,000.

A mixed bag in the Atlantic region

Prince Edward Island and New Brunswick were the only Atlantic provinces with population increases in the first quarter of 2009.

Despite small losses in interprovincial migration, Prince Edward Island enjoyed the highest population growth in the Atlantic region (0.17%). The province’s growth in the first quarter of 2009 was mostly due to its net international migration of 300, a record for a first quarter.

During the first quarter of 2009, Prince Edward Island had the highest rate of immigration in Canada. It led the country for the fourth time in the last seven quarters.

In the first three months of 2009, New Brunswick experienced positive population growth for a ninth consecutive quarter. The province had not only a slight increase in net interprovincial migration but also unprecedented gains for a first quarter in non-permanent residents (400) and international migration (600).

Despite a net increase in interprovincial migration (100), Newfoundland and Labrador posted a population loss during the first quarter of 2009. The province’s interprovincial gains were offset by a number of factors: a rising deficit in natural increase, lower immigration than in previous quarters, and one of the few decreases in non-permanent residents in the country.

After seven positive quarters, Nova Scotia posted a population decline in the first quarter of 2009. A growing deficit in natural increase combined with interprovincial migration losses (-400) and lower immigration than in previous quarters wiped out the province’s gain in non-permanent residents.

In the North

In northern Canada, the populations of Yukon and Nunavut grew more rapidly than the national population, while the Northwest Territories lost population for the fifth consecutive quarter.

Despite losses in interprovincial migration, Yukon had a population increase (0.32%) for the eighth consecutive quarter. Thanks to a combined increase in immigration and non-permanent residents, the territory posted an international migration gain of 100, a first-quarter record.

With a record gain in interprovincial migration for a first quarter, Nunavut recorded higher growth (0.65%) than the other northern territories in the first three months of 2009. It is Nunavut’s highest first-quarter growth rate since 1996.

In relative terms, the Northwest Territories posted the country’s largest population decline in the first quarter of 2009 (-0.23%). The decrease was largely due to the territory’s interprovincial migration losses (-200) during the period.