Section 3 Factors influencing the evolution of the French-mother-tongue population

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• 3.1 Fertility
• 3.2 Transmission of mother tongue and the effect of exogamy
• 3.3 Age structure
• 3.4 Language transfers or intragenerational linguistic mobility
• 3.5 Use of French in the public sphere
• 3.6 Knowledge of French
• 3.7 Migration (interprovincial and international migratory movements)

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How the language groups in a given province or region evolve depends on the combined effect of different factors: on the one hand the determinants of natural increase—fertility and mortality—and on the other hand, internal and international migration. An additional factor is intergenerational linguistic continuity, that is, the mother-to-child transmission of the mother tongue.¹ Another factor will be described in this section, namely intragenerational linguistic continuity, or its obverse, language transfer or substitution. The latter, while it does not directly influence how a language group evolves in the short term, can nevertheless have a major long-term influence, in that the language predominantly used in the home is generally the one transmitted to the children.

This section will focus mainly on the French-mother-tongue group in Manitoba. However, some of the analyses —particularly those on interprovincial migration and international immigration—will also cover the population with French as the first official language spoken.

3.1 Fertility

During the first half of the twentieth century, differences in fertility between language groups were partly explained by the population growth or maintenance of some groups in relation to others. In Manitoba, from the mid-1950s to the mid-1960s, the fertility of Francophone women exceeded that of both Anglophone and allophone women. The Francophones' high fertility partially offset the effects of international immigration insofar as the latter favoured the growth of the English-mother-tongue population.

According to census data, the total fertility rate of Francophone women declined so steeply that over a period of only 30 years (1956–1961 to 1981–1986), the average number of children per woman went from 5.01 to 1.87 (see Table 3.1). A drop in fertility was also observed among women with English as their mother tongue, but it was less dramatic, going from 3.77 to 1.69 during the same period. In subsequent periods, the total fertility rate of Francophones was lower than that of the other two groups, reaching its lowest level during the 1996-2001 period, at 1.66 children per woman.

Demographers have determined that in the current conditions of low mortality, the replacement level corresponds to a fertility rate of 2.1, that is, 2,100 children per 1,000 women. As may be seen in Table 3.1, Francophone women's fertility rate fell below this replacement level in the period from 1981 to 1986. For Anglophone women, this phenomenon occurred slightly earlier, during the period from 1976 to 1981. For women with a mother tongue other than English or French, the fertility rate has been dropping since 1956-1961, although it has not fallen below the replacement level. From 2001 to 2006, it was 2.16 children per woman.

Since the period from 1966 to 1971, the total fertility rate of women with a mother tongue other than English or French has exceeded that of their Francophone counterparts. In this regard, however, caution is warranted when examining the effect of higher fertility for "other"-mother-tongue women. This phenomenon does not necessarily translate into an increase in this group's population in relation to the others. As will be seen further on, the transmission of an "other" mother tongue to children—generally the majority language of the community—is a not insignificant phenomenon.

Table 3.1 Total fertility rate by mother tongue, Manitoba, 1956 to 2006

3.2 Transmission of mother tongue and the effect of exogamy

Although the total fertility rate provides useful information on the number of births within different mother-tongue groups, it does not shed any light on the mother tongue transmitted to children. The tendency to transmit a language to one's children varies according to a number of factors; one of the most important of these is the geographic concentration of the population comprising a given language group. This geographic concentration factor also influences the propensity to form an exogamous couple, that is, a couple in which the spouses² do not have the same mother tongue. Moreover, the lower the geographic concentration or relative weight of a language group in a given community, the lower the propensity of parents to transmit the minority language. In Manitoba, at the time of the 2006 Census, French had been passed on as a mother tongue to 39% of the children of couples in which at least one spouse had French as a mother tongue.

From 1971 to 2006, among all couples with at least one French-mother-tongue spouse, the proportion of French-English exogamous couples strongly increased, from 35% to 60%. By the same token, during this period, the proportion of endogamous couples in which both spouses had French as a mother tongue decreased, going from 51% to 31% and the proportion of French-"other"-language exogamous couples also fell from 14% to 9%.

During the same period, among all families with at least one French-mother-tongue parent, the proportion of children from a French-English exogamous family doubled in Manitoba, going from 33% to 66% (see Chart 3.1). Conversely, the share of children living in an endogamous family with both parents having French as their mother tongue declined substantially, from 54% in 1971 to 24% in 2006. The proportion of French-"other"-tongue exogamous families declined slightly during this period, going from 13% to 9%.

Chart 3.1 Proportion of children under 18 years of age living in a family where at least one parent is of French-mother tongue, by mother tongue of parents, Manitoba, 1971 and 2006

Because of the increasing proportion of French-English exogamous couples from 1971 to 2006, one might expect to see a decrease in the rate of transmission to children of the minority language (in this case, French). But whereas in 1971, French had been passed on to 7% of children under the age of 18 of French-English exogamous couples, that proportion was 19% in 2006 (see Chart 3.2). The transmission of French to the children of French-"other"-language exogamous couples also increased slightly, from 14% to 15% during the same period.

Chart 3.2 also shows that among Francophone endogamous couples, the transmission of French to children under the age of 18 went from 90% in 1971 to 87% in 2006.

Chart 3.2 Mother tongue of children under 18 years of age, by mother tongue of parents, Manitoba, 1971 and 2006

From 1971 to 2006, an increase is observed in the rate of transmission of French to the children of French-English exogamous couples. This increase is larger among families in which the mother, rather than the father, is the French-mother-tongue parent. In fact, census data show that the rate of transmission of French by French-mother-tongue mothers to their children rose sharply, from 7% in 1971 to 31% in 2006, whereas the rate for French-mother-tongue fathers went from 7% to 15%.

Table 3.2 shows that from 1971 to 2006, among exogamous couples with one French-mother-tongue spouse, there was an increase in the proportion of female spouses with a mother tongue other than French who could conduct a conversation in French and English. Thus, the increased transmission of French to children living in French-English exogamous families seems to go hand in hand with an increase in the French-English bilingualism of non-Francophone females spouses. English-mother-tongue female spouses had a French-English bilingualism rate of 15% in 2006 compared with 12% in 1971. In 2006, "other"-mother-tongue female spouses registered the highest French-English bilingualism rate (17%) of all non-Francophone spouses who were part of an exogamous couple, an increase from the rate in 1971 (15%).

Conversely, for male spouses, French-English bilingualism decreased among those with a mother tongue other than French. The rate went from 14% in 1971 to 11% in 2006 for those with English as their mother tongue and from 16.5% to 13.6% for those with an "other" mother tongue.

Table 3.2 Proportion of spouses with a mother tongue other than French who can conduct a conversation in both English and French, by the couple's language combination, Manitoba, 1971 and 2006

It is also worth noting that in 1971, 6.7% of French-mother-tongue women living with an English-speaking male spouse spoke French most often at home, compared with 4.3% of French-mother-tongue males living with an English-speaking female spouse. Thirty-five years later, in 2006, the corresponding proportions were 11.5% and 6.7% respectively.

3.3 Age structure

It is helpful to examine how the age structure of Manitoba's Francophone population has evolved, in order to reveal the demographic history of that population while getting an indication of its future course. Between 1971 and 2006, this evolution was basically the result of a decreased total fertility rate among Francophone women, a negative net interprovincial migration among French-mother-tongue persons, and the contribution of international immigration. Added to all these phenomena was a low or moderate transmission to children of French as a mother tongue. As noted above, at the time of the 2006 Census, French was passed on as a mother tongue to slightly less than 4 in 10 children under the age of 18 of couples with at least one French-mother-tongue spouse.

Chart 3.3 shows how the age structure of Manitoba's French-mother-tongue population has changed over time. As already noted, between 1971 and 2006, the numbers of people in this language group decreased by 25%, from 60,485 to 45,515. However, not all cohorts saw their numbers decline; cohorts under 40 years of age registered losses, notably owing to Francophone women's declining fertility, due in part to a total fertility rate below replacement level. The French-mother-tongue population was also affected by negative net interprovincial migration. At the same time, there was a substantial increase in the number of persons aged 45 and over reflecting the high fertility among Franco-Manitoban women of the past. The increase in the number of seniors is also explained by the aging of the population and increased life expectancy.

In 2006, the number of children under 5 years of age (1,435) was smaller than the number of adults aged 30 to 34—the average age of childbearing—(2,290), a ratio of 0.63. By comparison, in 1971 that ratio was 1.05 (4,065/3,860). Also, as Chart 3.3 shows, the number of baby boomers (born between 1946 and 1966) which corresponded in 1971 to the age cohorts 5–9 to 20–24 is much larger than the number in the 40–44 to 55–59 age cohorts 35 years later (22,515 versus 16,165). These facts are partly explained by the migration of Francophones to other provinces and territories.

Chart 3.3 Age structure of the French mother tongue population, Manitoba, 1971 and 2006

All things being otherwise equal, the low numbers of the youngest cohorts in 2006, combined with the fact that over the coming decades, a number of cohorts will reach age 65, will result in an age structure that reflects the considerable aging of the French-mother-tongue population. Indeed, already in 2006, the proportion of Francophones aged 65 and over is twice that of those aged under 15.

While the aging of the French-mother-tongue population is mainly due to a low fertility rate and a steady increase in life expectancy, one assumes that it also results from the non-transmission of French as a mother tongue to children. As noted above, in families composed of French-English exogamous couples, the rate of intergenerational transmission of French, is low although it increased between 1971 and 2006: 7% of children under the age of 18 living in such families were transmitted French as a mother tongue in 1971, compared with 19% in 2006 (see Chart 3.2). Instead, it was predominantly English (76%) that was transmitted to the children of these exogamous couples in 2006.

Overall during this period, the Francophone population was not favoured by intergenerational linguistic continuity. This phenomenon is measured by determining the ratio of the number of French-mother-tongue children aged under 5 to the number of children whose mother has French as her mother tongue.³ In Manitoba, this ratio, or index, stood at 0.67 in 2006, similarly to 1971 when it was 0.66. It is useful to note that "[a] language group emerges at the top of the mother tongue transmission process when the index is higher than 1 […]. Conversely, transfers are unfavourable to a mother tongue when the index is less than 1." (Lachapelle and Lepage, 2011, p. 86). In the case of Manitoba, intergenerational transmission is unfavourable to the French-mother-tongue population, since the intergenerational continuity index is less than 1.⁴

The steep drop in births exhibited by the French-mother-tongue group in the past 35 years is not unique to this language group. Chart 3.4 shows the age structure of the main mother-tongue groups in 2006. As may be seen, while the relative share of cohorts aged under 25 within the English-mother-tongue group is greater than in the other two groups, the consequences of a fertility rate below the replacement level are also apparent among persons aged under 15 in this language group. But unlike the French-mother-tongue and "other"-mother-tongue groups, the Anglophone group benefited from the contribution of intergenerational linguistic mobility from the other two groups.

It should also be noted that the over-representation of French-mother-tongue and "other"-mother tongue groups within the cohorts aged 45 and over reflects the aging of the population, which is more pronounced in these language groups.

Chart 3.4 Age structure of French, English and "other"-mother tongue populations, Manitoba, 2006 (rate per 1,000)

3.4 Language transfers or intragenerational linguistic mobility

Language transfers—sometimes called language shifts—refer to the phenomenon where an individual's main language used at home differs from their mother tongue. This language mobility phenomenon has no direct bearing on the evolution of language groups defined according to mother tongue. However, insofar as the language that dominates in the home is generally the one that is passed on to the children, it has a long-term influence on the future of language groups. When the criterion used to define language groups is the first official language spoken, the language spoken most often at home directly influences the size of the Francophone group. For example, according to this criterion, persons who have knowledge of both official languages and who have either French and English or another language as a mother tongue are part of the French-speakinggroup if they speak French most often at home.⁵

Across the censuses, there is a steady rise in the rate of language transfer for French-mother-tongue persons in Manitoba (see Table 3.3). Thus, in 1971, approximately 37% of Manitobans with French as a mother tongue reported using another language, usually English, most often at home. Thirty-five years later, 56% of French-mother-tongue persons reported speaking a language other than French most often at home. The proportion of language transfers among English-mother-tongue persons, while almost nil, nevertheless declined, going from 1.0% in 1971 to 0.4% in 2006. Among "other"-mother-tongue persons, the proportion of language transfers remained relatively stable over the past 35 years, from 52.4% in 1971 to 51.7% in 2006.

Table 3.3 Rate of language transfer by mother tongue, Manitoba, 1971 to 2006

A linguistic continuity index can also be used as a corollary to the rate of language transfer. This index is the ratio of the number of persons with a given home language to the number with the corresponding mother tongue. A language group comes out ahead in exchanges with other language groups when the index is higher than 1. Conversely, transfers are unfavourable to a language group when the index is less than 1.

As shown in Table 3.4, the English-mother-tongue group saw its linguistic continuity index go from 1.23 to 1.18 from 1971 to 2006 while that of the Francophone group went from 0.65 to 0.45. During the same period, the linguistic continuity index of the "other"-mother-tongue group changed very little, from 0.50 to 0.48.⁶

Table 3.4 Population by mother tongue, language spoken most often at home and linguistic continuity index, Manitoba, 1971 and 2006

The continuity index of 0.45 for the French-mother-tongue group takes into account the fact that in Manitoba, 470 persons have an "other" mother tongue and speak French most often at home (Table 3.5). It also reflects the fact that more than 765 persons with English as their mother tongue have French as their main home language.

Table 3.5 Population by mother tongue and language spoken most often at home, Manitoba, 2006

Because the main home language of individuals may differ from their mother tongue, the concept of language transfer has often been interpreted as indicating an abandonment of one's mother tongue. But since 2001, the Canadian census has included a question on the languages, other than the main language, that are spoken on a regular basis at home. Although it may be difficult to judge how respondents interpret this new question, qualitative tests conducted with respondents, as well as the results from the Survey on the Vitality of Official-Language Minorities, have shown that respondents usually consider it to refer to daily use of that language.

Based on census results for this question, a distinction can be made between partial and complete language transfer. As a corollary to this distinction, the concept of linguistic continuity needs to be understood more broadly, since using one's mother tongue on a regular basis at home cannot automatically be interpreted as linguistic discontinuity.

In 2006, more than 19,500 Manitobans spoke French as the only main language at home, while more than 2,000 reported speaking that language most often in combination with English or another language (Table 3.6). Thus, 1.9% of Manitobans reported having French as their main home language. Data from the 2006 Census also show that 17,930 persons reported speaking French on a regular basis at home, although it was not their main home language (see Table 3.7). In short, French was spoken most often or on a regular basis at home by 3.5% of the province's population, or approximately 39,500 persons.

Table 3.6 Population by mother tongue, language spoken most often at home and other languages spoken regularly at home, Manitoba, 2006

Table 3.7 Number and proportion of persons with French as mother tongue, first official language spoken, language spoken most often at home and language spoken regularly at home, Manitoba, 2006

One can use information on the regular use of French as a secondary language in the home in order to distinguish complete language transfers from partial language transfers. Thus, based on single responses to the question on the first language learned and still understood at the time of the 2006 Census (usually called mother tongue), Table 3.8 shows that for Manitoba as a whole, 34% of persons with French as their mother tongue do not use French at least regularly at home (complete transfer), whereas 22% use it on a regular basis (partial transfer). Consequently, French is the main home language for 44% of Francophones (see Table 3.8).

Table 3.8 Rate of complete and partial language transfers of Francophones by age group, Manitoba, 2006

The rates for complete and partial language transfers are known to vary by age group (see Table 3.8). In Manitoba, statistics from the 2006 Census show that persons aged 35 to 64 are the most likely to have made a complete language transfer. Francophones aged 35 to 54 are more inclined to use a language other than French at home (67%) than those in other age groups, whereas those aged under 15 are less likely to do so (23%). For partial language transfers, Francophones aged 25 to 34 have the highest rate (27%). Also, among Francophones aged 15 to 54, the proportion for whom French is the main home language ranges from 33% to 55% depending on the age group.

Exogamy is often associated with language transfer for Francophones outside Quebec. Indeed, 83% of Manitoba Francophones who live in an exogamous union with an English-mother-tongue spouse speak English most often at home. However, SVOLM data serve to better document the link between exogamy and language transfer among Francophones. Those data show that for more than half of all Francophones, language transfer took place well before a union was formed with an Anglophone partner: approximately 84% of Francophones who live in an exogamous union began to speak English most often at home before age 21 and 52% before age 15. Among Francophones aged between 25 and 44—those likely to have young children—those proportions were 98% and 59% respectively. Thus, it is not only exogamy that has a direct bearing on the fact that a Francophone speaks English most often at home. In fact, these results suggest that living in a highly minority situation increases the use of the majority language in daily activities and influences the main language of Francophones in the medium term; and ultimately their propensity to choose an English-speaking spouse. In any event, the relationship between exogamy and home language definitely operates in both directions.

Data drawn from the SVOLM shed light on the link that tends to be established between language transfer and anglicization. The survey includes a question on respondents' main language, that is, the language in which they are most at ease in speaking. The data show that 52% of the population for whom French is the first official language spoken have either French (32%) or both official languages (20%) as main languages.

Overall in Manitoba, a larger proportion of Francophones report speaking English more than French at home (complete and partial language transfers) than report being more at ease in English than in French: 56% of Franco-Manitobans report speaking English most often at home, while 48% report being more at ease in English than in French.

3.5 Use of French in the public sphere

Statistics from the Census of Population shed light on the use of languages both in the private sphere (at home) and in the workplace, as we will see in the section on the labour force. But what do we know about the use of English and French by Franco-Manitobans in domains of interaction other than the home?

The Survey on the Vitality of Official-Language Minorities includes a number of questions on the use of languages in various domains of the public sphere such as stores, health care institutions (which will be examined in detail in the next section), volunteer activities, social support, community or sports activities, etc. Some questions in the survey also deal with domains on the borderline between private and public spheres, such as the language spoken with friends outside the home or the language in which various media are "consumed."

An examination of language practices in various domains of both public and private spheres reveals that in Manitoba, the population whose first official language spoken is French mainly uses English in the public sphere (see Chart 3.5). The most widespread use of English involves the consumption of media and oral interactions taking place in institutions and stores. In these two domains, respectively 84% and 78% of the French FOLS population use English predominantly (mainly or only). In the private sphere, French is used predominantly in the home (mainly or only) by nearly one person in two, nearly the same figure as for English.⁷

Chart 3.5 Proportion of Francophones by language use in various domains of the public and private spheres, Manitoba, 2006

Beyond language choices at home, in the consumption of media and in institutions and stores, English is used (mainly or only) to an equal extent within immediate networks (59%) and with friends (60%). At work, data from the Survey of the Vitality of Official-Language Minorities show that, among persons for whom French is the only first official language spoken, nearly 68% use mainly or only English. As a final point, it is worth noting that 72% of the population for whom French is the only first official language spoken use mainly or only English in all the public sphere domains (media, institutions and stores, work, immediate network and friends outside the home).⁸ Thus, in the public sphere, 31% of Francophones use English exclusively, while 40% use mainly English (with another language).

3.6 Knowledge of French

Persons whose main language is French have more opportunities to use it when they are in contact with persons who are able to conduct a conversation in French even if it is not their first official language spoken.

Within the overall population of Manitoba in 2006, the proportion of persons who reported being able to conduct a conversation in French (9.3%) is larger than the proportion who reported French alone or with another language as their mother tongue (4.2%) or the proportion for whom French is the first official language spoken (3.8%). The relative share of Manitobans who are able to conduct a conversation in French is highly polarized by language group. Whereas 89% of persons with French as a mother tongue reported knowing both official languages, the proportion was only 7% for persons with English as a mother tongue and 3% for persons with another mother tongue (see Table 3.9). Among the latter, 4% reported that they were unable to conduct a conversation in either French or English.

Table 3.9 Knowledge of official languages by mother tongue, Manitoba, 2001 and 2006

In municipalities where Francophones comprise less than 10% of the population, the French-English bilingualism rate of non-Francophones is 6% (see Chart 3.6). In municipalities where Francophones comprise from 10% to 29% of the population, the level of knowledge of French among non-Francophones is 11%. Thus, the greater the relative share of Francophones within their municipality, the greater will be the knowledge of French among non-Francophones. A fact worth noting is that when Francophones represent 50% or more of the population in their community of residence, the level of knowledge of French among non-Francophones reaches 43%.

Chart 3.6 Rate of English-French bilingualism among persons with English as their first official language spoken by the proportion of Francophones within the municipality of residence, Manitoba, 2006

The statistics in Chart 3.7 show that among non-Francophones in almost all age groups, French-English bilingualism is more widespread among those with English as their mother tongue than among those with other mother tongues. English-mother-tongue persons under age 40 have a much higher bilingualism rate than "other"-mother-tongue persons in corresponding age groups. On the other hand, beyond age 40, the differences between the two groups are very small or non-existent.

With some variations, persons with English as their mother tongue and those with an "other" mother tongue have bilingualism rates that evolve along fairly similar lines from one age group to the next. Among young Anglophones and allophones, the French-English bilingualism rate increases from one age group to the next, peaking between 15 and 29 years of age, the period when young people finish their education and enter the labour market. Then begins a gradual decline in bilingualism rates, which fall (and remain) below the 4% level for Anglophones aged 40 and over and allophones aged 30 and over. Often the immigrant population has not had the opportunity to attend a French immersion program, which partly explains the differences in the bilingualism levels of Anglophones and allophones aged 20 to 39.

Chart 3.7 Proportion of persons with a mother tongue other than French who can conduct a conversation in French and in English, by age group, Manitoba, 2006

The ability of young Anglophones to maintain their knowledge of French as a second language diminishes over time. As shown in Chart 3.8, the bilingualism rate of youths aged 15 to 19 reported in the 1996 Census (16.7%) falls to 14.7% in 2001, when this cohort is aged 20 to 24, and to 12.9% in 2006 when it is aged 25 to 29. A similar trend can be observed among youths who were aged 15 to 19 in 2001 and 20 to 24 five years later. The French-English bilingualism rate for non-Francophones peaks at the ages of 15 to 19, the period when young people are leaving school.

Chart 3.8 Proportion of persons with English as their mother tongue who can conduct a conversation in English and in French by age group, Manitoba, 1996, 2001 and 2006

It is difficult to identify the exact causes of the decline in the ability to conduct a conversation in French among young English-mother-tongue Manitobans aged 15 to 19. As shown in Table 3.10, from 2000 to 2006, the number of children attending immersion programs grew appreciably, from 17,195 to 17,871. During the same period, the number attending regular French-language programs remained stable. Further research would be needed to gain a better understanding of this phenomenon.

Table 3.10 Number of children registered in French immersion and in regular French programmes at the primary and secondary levels in public schools, Manitoba, 2000/2001 to 2006/2007

3.7 Migration (interprovincial and international migratory movements)

The mobility of Francophones within Canada and the contribution of international immigration are factors that greatly influence the evolution of the French-speaking population of Manitoba.

3.7.1 Place of birth

Table 3.11 shows the place of birth of Manitoba Francophones. As may be seen, in 2006, more than 80% of French-speakingpersons in Manitoba had been born there. That proportion is practically the same for persons for whom French is the first official language spoken. Regardless of the criterion chosen, the proportion of Manitoba Francophones born in another province or a territory of Canada is 16%, with two such persons in five born in Quebec and nearly one in five born in Saskatchewan. As for foreign-born persons, most of them immigrants,⁹ they constituted 3.4% of persons with French as a mother tongue and 5.4% of those with French as the first official language spoken.

Table 3.11 Place of birth of Francophones by mother tongue and first official language spoken, Manitoba, 2006

3.7.2 International immigration

During the past 35 years, the relative weight of immigrants to Canada who are living in Manitoba has declined, from 4.6% in 1971 to 2.4% in 2006 (see Table 3.12). During the same period, this province's share of the French-speakingimmigrant population living outside Quebec fell sharply, going from 6.7% to 2.2%.

Francophone immigration to Manitoba is not a recent phenomenon. However, despite the strong growth of international immigration to Canada since the mid-1980s, the provinces' French-speakingimmigrant population declined by 17% from 1981 to 2006. The immigrant population with French as its first official language spoken accounts for a very small proportion of the province's immigrant population. In 2006, its relative share was 1.4%. Whereas it was 6% in 1971, the share of the French-speaking immigrant population within the Francophone population edged down to 5% in 2006, a level much lower than for the English-speaking immigrant population within the Anglophone population (13%) (see Table 3.12).

Table 3.12 Number and proportion of French-speaking and English-speaking immigrants, Manitoba, 1971 to 2006

Although the Francophone immigrant population comes from various countries, a large proportion of these immigrants come from a small number of countries. Table 3.13 shows the 12 main countries of origin of Francophone immigrants residing in Manitoba; together they represent the source countries of 65% of the province's French-language immigration. As the table also shows, nearly half of Francophone immigrants (48%) come from five countries: France, the Democratic Republic of Congo, the United States, Belgium and Morocco.

Table 3.13 Main countries of origin of French-speaking immigrants, Manitoba, 2006

3.7.3 Interprovincial migration

From 1986 to 2006, net migration between Manitoba and the other provinces and territories was negative, ranging from -2,230 to -620. The period from 1981 to 1986 differs from those that followed: the population with French as first official language spoken registered a positive net migration of 755 (see Table 3.14). From 1981 to 2006, for each five-year period, the number of Francophones departing to other provinces or territories ranged between 2,535 and 4,730. As for migration to Manitoba, it peaked during the period from 1981 to 1986, when 3,290 Francophones settled in the province. Since then, Francophone migration to Manitoba has steadily declined, falling to 1,970 arrivals from 2001 to 2006.

Table 3.14 Interprovincial migration between Manitoba and other provinces and territories by first official language spoken, 1981 to 2006

Charts 3.9 and 3.10 show migratory movements between Manitoba and the other provinces and territories from 2001 to 2006. As may be seen, of the roughly 1,970 Francophones who came from other provinces and territories to settle in Manitoba, 40% were living in Quebec in 2001. The rest of them came mainly from Ontario (20%), British Columbia (12%) and Alberta (10%). Of the roughly 2,580 Francophones who were living in Manitoba in 2001 and who subsequently migrated to other provinces, 35% settled in Quebec, while 26% chose Ontario and 15% opted for Alberta.

Chart 3.9 Province or territory of origin of Francophones who settled in Manitoba between 2001 and 2006

Chart 3.10 Destination of Francophones who left Manitoba for another province or territory between 2001 and 2006

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Notes

1. Of course, a language is also transmitted from fathers to their children, but it is usually the mother's language that predominates.
2. In this study, the term "spouse" includes persons that are legally married as well as those that are in a common-law union.
3. To establish this ratio, demographers generally look at children living in a two-parent family or a one-parent family headed by a woman. Such children account for more than 97% of all children in this age group.
4. For an in-depth examination of this approach, see Lachapelle and Lepage (2011).
5. As noted earlier, persons with an "other" mother tongue who know only French are assigned French as their first official language spoken, regardless of whether they speak that language most often at home.
6. It may seem surprising that the drop in the linguistic continuity index for Francophones and allophones is not accompanied by a rise in the index for Anglophones. This is due to a composition effect. This singular phenomenon, known as Simpson's paradox, is explained in this case by the increase in the size of the Anglophone group in relation to the other language groups.
7. The difference is not statistically significant.
8. See Appendix C for a description of the general index of use of languages in the public sphere.
9. Foreign-born persons include immigrants, non-permanent residents and Canadians born abroad.