Abstract
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Background
Keywords
Findings
Authors
What is already known on this subject?
What does this study add?
Background
Computer simulation modeling makes it possible to project physical activity levels and the prevalence of related health outcomes. Such projections can help to inform programs that aim to increase physical activity levels and improve population health.
Data and Methods
The Population Health Model (POHEM) platform was used to develop a dynamic microsimulation model of physical activity among Canadian adults. Key parameters were derived from the National Population Health Survey (1994/1995 to 2006/2007) and the 2000/2001 Canadian Community Health Survey. To assess the validity of the physical activity module (POHEM-PA), estimates from the simulation projections were compared with results from nationally representative surveys.
Results
Trends over time in physical activity levels, chronic disease prevalence, and Health Utilities Index based on POHEM-PA projections were similar to those based on data from subsequent cycles of the Canadian Community Health Survey.
Interpretation
The addition of a physical activity module to POHEM provides a tool that can improve understanding of the complex dynamics underlying the relationship between physical activity and health outcomes as a population ages.
Keywords
Chronic disease, computer models, computer simulation, forecasting, health planning, health surveys, life expectancy, projections and predictions, quality of life
Findings
While the importance of regular physical activity to good health is widely recognized, the percentage of Canadian adults who meet physical activity guidelines is estimated at just 15%. A greater understanding of the complex dynamics underlying the association between population levels of physical activity and health outcomes is useful in the formulation of policies and programs to increase physical activity. [Full Text]
Authors
Claude Nadeau (613-951-5510; claude.nadeau@statcan.gc.ca), Suzy L. Wong (613-951-4774; suzy.wong@statcan.gc.ca), William M. Flanagan (613-951-6930; william.flanagan@statcan.gc.ca), and Doug Manuel are with, and Jillian Oderkirk was formerly with, the Health Analysis Division at Statistics Canada, Ottawa, Ontario, K1A 0T6. Doug Manuel is also with the Ottawa Hospital Research Institute, the University of Ottawa and the Institute for Clinical Evaluative Studies. Ronald Wall is with the Public Health Agency of Canada. Mark S. Tremblay is with the Children’s Hospital of Eastern Ontario Research Institute.
What is already known on this subject?
- Computer simulation modeling enables projections of future physical activity levels and of the prevalence of related health outcomes.
- Models must be designed to address specific questions for specific populations.
What does this study add?
- The Population Health Model (POHEM) platform was used to develop a dynamic microsimulation model of physical activity in Canada: POHEM-PA.
- This tool can improve understanding of the complex dynamics of physical activity and health outcomes as a population ages.
- POHEM-PA can explore “what-if” scenarios that change baseline assumptions in a population, and thereby, provide insight into the possible consequences of such changes.
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