Labour Statistics: Technical Papers
Interpreting population totals from the Labour Force Survey

The Labour Force Survey (LFS) is a monthly survey of Canadian households carried out by Statistics Canada. The main objective of the LFS is to classify the working-age population into three mutually exclusive groups based on their labour force status (employed, unemployed and out of the labour force) to produce key monthly labour market indicators, such as the employment and unemployment rates.

The methodology of the LFS is optimized to produce reliable information about month-to-month changes in these indicators. This includes a rotating panel sample design, in which households remain in the sample for six consecutive months. This results in a month-to-month overlap of five-sixths of the LFS sample, which makes the design more efficient for estimating month-to-month changes.

LFS results are released approximately 10 days after the completion of data collection. As such, the LFS estimates are the first of the major monthly economic data series to be released at Statistics Canada. Used in combination with other sources, such as the Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours (SEPH), the LFS is relied upon by policy makers, researchers, analysts and the public to monitor changes in labour market conditions in Canada.

Many indicators published from the LFS are presented as rates, such as the employment and unemployment rates, while others are presented as counts, such as the number of people who are employed and unemployed. The LFS also publishes estimates for the total population aged 15 and older – this series is used as the denominator for the employment rate, and is designed to be representative of the LFS survey target population.

This note provides information about population totals in the LFS, including details on who is included in the survey target population, and a description of the methodology used to produce these monthly population totals. The note also provides guidance on how to interpret population statistics in the LFS, and discusses the extent to which the LFS can be used to examine disaggregated labour market indicators for new immigrants and non-permanent residents (NPRs), two groups whose population has increased notably in recent years.

Who is included in the LFS target population?

The Labour Force Survey (LFS) target population includes all persons aged 15 years and older whose usual place of residence is in Canada, including both non-permanent residents (NPRs)—that is, those with a work or study permit, their families, asylum claimants, protected persons and related groups—as well as permanent residents (landed immigrants) and the Canadian-born population.^Note

Populations excluded from the LFS target population include those living on reserves, full-time members of the regular Armed Forces and persons living in institutions (including inmates of penal institutions and patients in hospitals and nursing homes).^Note

How are totals for the population aged 15 and above derived in the LFS?

Information gathered from LFS respondents is weighted to represent the survey target population using population control totals. Survey weights are calibrated to the population control totals for 24 age-sex groups, by province, as well as to population control totals for economic regions (ERs), census metropolitan areas (CMAs) and some census agglomerations (CAs). This calibration process ensures that each population control group is represented in LFS estimates in proportion with their representation in the total population.

Population control totals in the LFS are produced by Statistics Canada’s Centre for Demography using methods and data inputs which are very similar to those used to produce Canada's official demographic estimates, with some minor differences related to exclusions from the LFS target population, and to the fact that LFS estimates are produced and released in advance of demographic estimates. These population control totals are updated each month, using the available information on demographic changes at the time that LFS estimates are produced, including preliminary information on month-to-month changes in the number of permanent residents and NPRs, and account for other components of demographic growth, such as births, deaths and interprovincial migration.

More information on the LFS weighting and calibration methodology can be found in the document Methodology of the Canadian Labour Force Survey.

How do population control totals used in the LFS and official demographic estimates differ?

A key methodological distinction between population control totals in the LFS and official demographic estimates is that in the LFS, changes in the number of NPRs are accounted for using 12-month moving averages. This moving average is based on the most recently published quarterly estimates of the number of NPRs from demographic estimates, which are calculated using administrative data obtained from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) and demographic adjustments.

The use of moving averages helps to mitigate the impact of large monthly variations and seasonal patterns in the number of NPRs, helping to provide more stable and reliable signals of month-to-month changes in labour market conditions. However, this can contribute to a difference between LFS population control totals and official demographic estimates.

For example, Canada’s population growth, as measured by official demographic estimates, started to accelerate in the second half of 2022 (Chart 1). Because LFS population totals account for variation in the number of NPRs using moving averages, this acceleration was reflected in the LFS beginning in early 2023.

Data table for Chart 1



Data table for chart 1
Table summary
This table displays the results of Data table for chart 1 Quarterly growth in population estimates and Quarterly growth in population aged 15 years and older in the Labour Force Survey, calculated using percent units of measure (appearing as column headers).

	Quarterly growth in population estimates	Quarterly growth in population aged 15 years and older in the Labour Force Survey
	percent
2019
Q2	0.27	0.36
Q3	0.48	0.45
Q4	0.56	0.38
2020
Q1	0.26	0.26
Q2	0.21	0.23
Q3	0.06	0.22
Q4	0.00	0.25
2021
Q1	0.08	0.17
Q2	0.22	0.20
Q3	0.26	0.20
Q4	0.55	0.37
2022
Q1	0.30	0.37
Q2	0.30	0.37
Q3	0.66	0.38
Q4	0.87	0.45
2023
Q1	0.56	0.45
Q2	0.61	0.66
Q3	0.90	0.77
Q4	1.07	0.83
2024
Q1	0.60	0.85
Q2	0.60	0.86
Q3	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.96
.. not available for a specific reference period Note: Reference period is the first day of the quarter for the population estimates and the reference week of the first month of the quarter for the Labour Force Survey. Sources: Statistics Canada, Quarterly Population Estimates, table 17-10-0009-01, and Labour Force Survey, table 14-10-0287-01.

How has recent population growth been reflected in the LFS?

The growth rate of the population, from January 1st, 2023 to January 1st, 2024 (3.2%) was the highest since 1957 (3.3%). According to official demographic estimates, the Canadian population grew by close to 1.3 million people in 2023. In the first quarter of 2024, the population further increased by 0.6%. Immigrants and NPRs have accounted for almost all of recent population increases.

LFS results have reflected this strong population growth. In the 12 months to June 2024, employment in Canada rose by 343,000, or by 1.7%. Over the same period, the population aged 15 and older in the LFS has grown by 3.4%, twice the pace of employment growth. As a result, the employment rate—the proportion of the population aged 15 years and older who are employed—fell by 1.1 percentage points, from 62.2% in June 2023 to 61.1% in June 2024. This indicates that employment growth over the past year has generally not kept pace with population growth.

How should population totals and employment estimates from the LFS be interpreted?

While LFS population control totals are aligned with official demographic estimates in terms of both sources and methods, each data series is produced independently. Unlike official demographic estimates, the LFS is not optimized or designed to monitor changes in the size of the population. Official demographic estimates should be considered the official measure of population change in Canada.

The LFS provides an accurate reflection of the labour market situation of all those belonging to the survey target population, including NPRs. Statistics Canada conducts ongoing assessments of the quality of LFS estimates. Employment statistics from the Survey of Employment Payrolls and Hours (SEPH), which are based on a census of payroll administrative records from the Canada Revenue Agency and produced independently from the LFS, continue to align with LFS employment levels (adjusted to SEPH concepts^Note ) (Chart 2). This indicates that aggregate labour market indicators from the LFS remain representative of the survey target population.

Data table for Chart 2



Data table for chart 2
Table summary
This table displays the results of Data table for chart 2 LFS employment adjusted to SEPH concepts and SEPH employment, calculated using thousands units of measure (appearing as column headers).

	LFS employment adjusted to SEPH concepts	SEPH employment
	thousands
2015
January	15,767.8	15,681.5
February	15,785.6	15,679.9
March	15,826.4	15,678.9
April	15,813.6	15,719.4
May	15,835.2	15,753.6
June	15,892.3	15,724.7
July	15,896.6	15,764.9
August	15,898.2	15,735.2
September	15,903.5	15,753.4
October	15,931.9	15,812.2
November	15,891.2	15,789.3
December	15,860.4	15,820.8
2016
January	15,852.1	15,812.0
February	15,905.4	15,792.7
March	15,856.2	15,828.6
April	15,889.5	15,893.6
May	15,947.9	15,895.1
June	15,933.6	15,957.9
July	15,896.5	15,950.3
August	15,984.1	15,933.0
September	16,034.0	15,991.4
October	16,023.4	15,989.2
November	16,073.1	16,008.7
December	16,078.3	16,064.7
2017
January	16,175.0	16,052.1
February	16,202.9	16,109.5
March	16,228.2	16,114.5
April	16,285.8	16,139.7
May	16,272.6	16,178.8
June	16,311.7	16,275.2
July	16,379.9	16,284.8
August	16,366.4	16,335.7
September	16,350.4	16,367.0
October	16,411.1	16,340.4
November	16,423.8	16,360.0
December	16,501.5	16,419.8
2018
January	16,450.0	16,422.4
February	16,450.1	16,462.3
March	16,508.3	16,511.1
April	16,450.7	16,514.4
May	16,527.8	16,584.9
June	16,614.3	16,625.7
July	16,652.6	16,600.7
August	16,671.8	16,641.8
September	16,735.0	16,676.0
October	16,701.1	16,720.9
November	16,779.8	16,739.1
December	16,762.6	16,729.5
2019
January	16,791.4	16,807.7
February	16,786.1	16,844.2
March	16,804.9	16,866.9
April	16,952.5	16,870.0
May	16,967.7	16,920.7
June	16,971.1	16,920.9
July	16,962.2	16,980.2
August	17,048.5	17,000.7
September	17,053.4	16,979.4
October	17,041.0	16,989.1
November	16,989.0	17,001.1
December	17,043.5	17,013.6
2020
January	17,035.3	17,053.0
February	17,026.9	17,026.5
March	15,714.1	16,063.9
April	12,691.0	14,196.7
May	13,080.5	13,705.0
June	14,472.2	14,354.8
July	15,121.8	15,086.8
August	15,559.4	15,417.7
September	16,134.1	15,749.1
October	16,186.7	15,929.0
November	16,187.9	15,884.1
December	16,155.0	15,933.6
2021
January	15,837.9	15,802.1
February	16,211.9	15,863.5
March	16,626.1	16,108.5
April	16,396.3	16,232.2
May	16,329.0	16,020.8
June	16,593.1	16,233.7
July	16,806.7	16,538.7
August	16,925.1	16,628.8
September	17,112.4	16,704.3
October	17,228.9	16,832.2
November	17,305.3	16,901.2
December	17,402.1	17,007.1
2022
January	17,091.4	17,002.9
February	17,428.5	17,113.2
March	17,530.6	17,248.2
April	17,576.1	17,374.7
May	17,606.1	17,380.9
June	17,668.0	17,493.1
July	17,671.5	17,527.9
August	17,686.0	17,542.6
September	17,682.9	17,614.2
October	17,756.9	17,623.4
November	17,797.5	17,689.5
December	17,852.9	17,758.9
2023
January	17,957.5	17,807.9
February	18,033.8	17,844.4
March	18,082.1	17,850.6
April	18,048.4	17,774.1
May	18,113.8	17,930.1
June	18,161.2	17,970.7
July	18,172.1	17,980.1
August	18,215.7	17,982.3
September	18,315.7	18,012.2
October	18,249.9	17,993.7
November	18,287.3	17,930.0
December	18,291.7	17,982.0
2024
January	18,341.7	18,017.6
February	18,384.0	18,031.3
March	18,407.6	18,073.1
April	18,483.4	18,087.7
May	18,443.4	18,126.0
June	18,442.4	18,079.7
Note: Data for provinces only. Sources: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey, custom tabulation, and Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours, table 14-10-0220-01.

To what extent can the LFS be used to examine disaggregated labour market indicators for new immigrants and non-permanent residents?

The precision of LFS estimates associated with specific population groups may vary, depending on a number of factors, including sample size for the various groups and whether or not survey weights are calibrated for the group in question. As noted earlier, LFS weights are calibrated to population control totals for 24 age-sex groups, by province and selected sub-provincial geographies. Supplementary weights calibrated to population control totals for Indigenous groups and racialized groups are also available. Disaggregated estimates of counts associated with population groups to which LFS survey weights are calibrated will be more likely to be representative of their actual population sizes.

Interest for labour market information about immigrants and NPRs has increased in recent years, in the context of their strong population growth. The LFS publishes monthly labour market indicators .disaggregated by immigrant status since 2006.^Note However, because survey weights are not specifically calibrated by this dimension, estimates of immigrants from the LFS may differ from official demographic sources. For this reason, users are encouraged to focus on rates rather than totals when analyzing indicators for immigrants in the LFS.  

In the LFS, non-permanent residents represent the majority of a larger group which includes all those who were not born in Canada and have never been a landed immigrant. However, NPRs are not identified directly in the LFS questionnaire, and disaggregated labour market indicators for NPRs are currently not available in the LFS.

Other data sources from Statistics Canada can be used to examine the labour force characteristics of immigrants and NPRs in Canada. This includes the Census of Population,^Note which provides a comprehensive socio-demographic portrait of Canada’s labour force, as well as administrative sources such as the Longitudinal Immigration Database (IMDB).^Note

Statistics Canada regularly publishes special studies on the labour market situation of immigrants and NPRs in Canada using a combination of survey and administrative sources. For example, a recently released report examined the transition to permanent residency of temporary foreign workers across work permit programs, while another provided insights on the distribution of paid employment by industry of temporary foreign workers. These and other studies are published in the publication series “Economic and Social Reports”. Statistical information about these populations can also be found on Statistics Canada’s portal Immigrants and non-permanent residents statistics.

Conclusion

The methodology of the LFS is optimized to monitor month-to-month changes in labour market conditions in Canada and in the provinces. Population control totals in the LFS are produced by Statistics Canada’s Centre for Demography, and are designed to support the objectives of the survey.

While the LFS population totals are generally aligned with official demographic estimates, numbers from the two sources should be compared with caution, given the different goals of the programs and the methodological differences outlined in this note. Official demographic estimates should be considered the official measure of population change in Canada.

Aggregate labour market indicators from the LFS, including employment totals, are representative of the entire survey target population, including the Canadian-born population, landed immigrants and NPRs. However, the LFS methodology is not optimized to produce disaggregated labour market indicators for NPRs.

With the upcoming LFS historical revision, scheduled for early 2025, population control totals in the LFS will be produced using a revised method for calculating the 12-month moving average of NPRs. This is expected to contribute to a somewhat closer alignment between LFS population totals and official demographic estimates. More information about these changes will be available in the coming months.

On an ongoing basis, Statistics Canada is exploring new opportunities to further optimise the sources and methods involved in producing LFS control totals. For example, in recent years, in conjunction with the introduction of new survey questions to identify members of racialised groups, weighting and calibration processes for these groups have been improved. Similarly, work is ongoing to evaluate the feasibility of enhancements to the treatment of NPRs in the LFS.

Resources

Guide to the Labour Force Survey

Methodology of the Canadian Labour Force Survey

Labour Force Survey in brief: Interactive app

Statistics Canada’s Labour Statistics Portal