Economic and Social Reports
Recent trends in immigration from Canada to the United States

by Search for Statistics Canada publications by Feng Hou, Feng Hou , ORCID for Feng Hou , Milly Yang and Yao Lu

DOI: https://doi.org/10.25318/36280001202500700006-eng

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The flow of migrants across international borders is a critical factor shaping national economies, innovation capacity and societal development in the 21st century. For neighbouring countries with deeply integrated economies like Canada and the United States, the movement of people, particularly skilled workers, holds profound significance. Concerns regarding a Canadian “brain drain”—the emigration of highly educated and skilled individuals primarily to the United States—have been a recurring theme in Canadian public and policy discourse. The economic pull of the larger U.S. market, offering broader opportunities and often higher compensation in certain fields, continues to challenge Canada’s ability to retain talent.

Previous studies have examined Canadian-born individuals in the United States using U.S. census and American Community Survey data, but these sources lack sufficient coverage of foreign-born Canadian residents and cannot distinguish between permanent and temporary statuses (Damas de Matos & Parent, 2019; Dion & Vézina, 2010; Mueller, 2006, 2013). Few studies have compared annual permanent migration flows between Canada and the United States. Historical data show that Canada typically experienced net outflows to the United States (U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1990), losing skilled workers in key fields during the 1990s (Zhao, Drew & Murray, 2000). Furthermore, the lack of reliable data on Canadian temporary workers in the United States remains a major barrier to understanding the true scope of skilled-worker mobility between the two countries given that more Canadians likely reside in the United States on temporary visas than as permanent residents (Bérard-Chagnon & Canon, 2022; Dion & Vézina, 2010).

This article first compares trends in annual permanent migration flows between Canada and the United States since the 1990s.^Note  This comparison provides important context for understanding the net exchange of permanent migrants (foreign-born nationals who have been granted the right to live and work in the receiving country permanently). Permanent migration flows are measured by country of birth and by country of last residence. The difference between these two indicators reflects, to some extent, second-step migration, in which foreign-born individuals initially settle in one country (e.g., Canada) but subsequently migrate to another one (e.g., the United States).

However, permanent migration statistics do not fully capture the movement of individuals using temporary work visas—a primary pathway for skilled professionals to enter and stay in the United States. Therefore, this study goes further by investigating recent patterns in temporary migration flows from Canada to the United States. It specifically uses data on Canadian citizens applying for U.S. permanent labour certification, a key procedural step for those seeking employer-sponsored permanent residency (a Green Card). This unique dataset offers valuable insights into the characteristics of Canadians actively pursuing long-term career opportunities before they qualify for permanent residency in the United States. These data can also distinguish Canadian-born Canadian citizens and foreign-born Canadian citizens, thus providing information on the characteristics of former immigrants in Canada moving to the United States.

The next section compares trends in total permanent migration flows between the two countries, followed by an analysis of the trends and patterns of Canadian temporary workers seeking long-term employment in the United States. The study was unable to directly compare the flows of temporary workers between the two countries because of the lack of comparable data.

Permanent migration from Canada to the United States

Chart 1 shows trends in the annual number of permanent residents moving from Canada to the United States and vice versa. Data on Canadian immigrants to the United States are drawn from various editions of the Yearbook of Immigration Statistics published by the U.S. Office of Homeland Security Statistics (n.d.a), while figures on U.S. immigrants to Canada come from the Longitudinal Immigration Database (Statistics Canada, 2024).

The annual number of Canadian-born individuals granted U.S. permanent residency fluctuated considerably over the study period, particularly in the early 2000s. These fluctuations largely reflect processing issues and backlogs that affected overall U.S. admissions (Batalova, 2006).

Despite these short-term fluctuations, a clear decline in permanent migration from Canada to the United States has been observed since the late 2000s. For example, the average number of Canadian-born individuals granted U.S. permanent residency fell from 15,600 in the late 2000s to 10,900 in the late 2010s—a 30% decline. Levels in 2022 and 2023 remained essentially unchanged from 2019, the year before the COVID-19 pandemic.

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The number of U.S. permanent residents whose country of last residence was Canada followed a trend similar to that of Canadian-born individuals who are permanent residents in the United States, although the former group was about 40% larger. In other words, approximately 30% of permanent residents migrating from Canada to the United States were not born in Canada. Given that foreign-born individuals made up 16% (1991 Census) to 26% (2021 Census) of Canada’s population, this suggests that foreign-born residents of Canada were more likely than Canadian-born individuals to become U.S. permanent residents. This could reflect second-step migration, in which foreign-born individuals migrate to Canada then relocate to the United States.

For example, based on 2016 Canadian census population estimates^Note  and the number of permanent residents moving to the United States in that year, the rate of emigration to the United States was 4.8 per 10,000 for the Canadian-born population, compared with 8.2 per 10,000 for the foreign-born population.

In comparison, the number of permanent residents from the United States moving to Canada has generally been smaller in scale. Focusing on the U.S.-born population, the rate of emigration to Canada was approximately 2.7 per 100,000—roughly 6% of the emigration rate of the Canadian-born population to the United States. From the early 1990s to the mid-2010s, the number of U.S.-born immigrants to Canada was roughly one-third to one-half the number of Canadian-born immigrants to the United States. As a result, Canada experienced a net loss in the exchange of permanent residents.

However, this figure has been rising since 2017 and, in some years after 2017, equaled or even slightly surpassed the number of permanent residents from Canada moving to the United States. This trend was disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, which significantly reduced inflows from the United States in 2020 and 2021. Beginning in 2018, the flows between the two countries became largely balanced.

Unlike the pattern observed for migration from Canada to the United States, the number of permanent residents moving to Canada who last resided in the United States only slightly exceeded the number of U.S.-born immigrants moving to Canada from 1991 to 2012. However, since 2013, this relationship has reversed in most years. This shift is largely because many U.S.-born individuals lived in Canada as temporary residents before becoming permanent residents and therefore reported Canada—not the United States—as their country of last residence (Hou & Stick, 2025). As a result, the number of U.S.-residing immigrants moving to Canada is not directly comparable with the number of Canada-residing immigrants moving to the United States.

Canadian workers seeking U.S. permanent residency

In the United States, the majority of immigrants seeking employment-based permanent residency must obtain labour certification through the Program Electronic Review Management (PERM) system (U.S. Office of Homeland Security Statistics, n.d.b). This process involves labour market testing, wage protections and government oversight to ensure that the hiring of foreign workers does not disadvantage U.S. workers (Rissing & Castilla, 2014).^Note  While similar to Canada’s Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP), the PERM system is specifically designed for permanent immigration, while the TFWP is primarily for temporary employment, with some pathways to permanent residency.

As shown in Table 1, the number of Canadian citizens seeking permanent employment in the United States declined by 26% from 2015^Note  to 2024, mirroring the broader decline in the overall flow of Canadian permanent residents. The decrease was more pronounced among Canadian-born citizens (-36%) than among foreign-born Canadian citizens (-17%). By 2024, foreign-born Canadian citizens accounted for 60% of all Canadian applicants for labour certification, up from 54% a decade earlier.

While Canadian workers applying for permanent employment were generally highly educated, their educational attainment declined over the study period. The proportion of those holding a master’s or doctoral degree dropped from 41% to 31%. Canadian-born citizens were more likely to hold doctoral degrees, while foreign-born citizens were more likely to hold master’s degrees. Nonetheless, both groups experienced a decline in educational levels over time.

In 2015 and 2024, about 46% of Canadian workers applying for permanent employment were concentrated in computer and mathematical occupations, or in architecture and engineering occupations. The share working in these occupations was higher among foreign-born Canadian citizens (52% in 2024) than among Canadian-born citizens (36%). However, the latter group was more likely to be in management occupations.

The high skill level of these workers was also reflected in the wages offered by their sponsoring employers. The median wage offer was $144,000 (in 2024 constant U.S. dollars) in 2015, declining slightly to $137,000 in 2024. Wage offers were comparable between Canadian-born and foreign-born Canadian citizens.

Summary

In recent decades, a significant decline in permanent migration from Canada to the United States has been observed. The average number of Canadian-born individuals granted U.S. permanent residency fell by 30% from the late 2000s to the late 2010s. In contrast, the number of U.S.-born immigrants to Canada has increased. Overall, Canada experienced a net loss in the exchange of permanent residents from the early 1990s to the mid-2010s. However, since 2018, the difference in permanent resident flows between the two countries has become relatively small.

Data from U.S. labour certification applications reveal that Canadian temporary workers seeking permanent employment in the United States were highly educated and concentrated in computer, mathematical, architecture and engineering occupations, though the overall educational attainment of these applicants has declined over time. By 2024, foreign-born Canadian citizens made up 60% of all Canadian citizen applicants for U.S. labour certification, and the median wage offers for these positions remained high, though slightly lower than a decade earlier.

The continued movement of highly skilled Canadians—both Canadian-born and foreign-born—into the U.S. labour market has important implications for both countries. For Canada, these findings highlight retention issues for skilled immigrants. In the United States, the influx of highly skilled Canadian workers continues to bolster key sectors, but the overall decline in Canadian immigration suggests tightening competition for global talent.

Acknowledgments

The authors would like to thank Marc Frenette for his advice and comments on an earlier version of this article.

Authors

Feng Hou is with the Economic and Social Analysis and Modelling Division, Analytical Studies and Modelling Branch, at Statistics Canada. Milly Yang is with the Department of Sociology at Yale University in the United States. Yao Lu is with the Department of Sociology at Columbia University in the United States.

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