Economic and Social Reports
Recent changes in Canadian-resident travel to the United States
DOI: https://doi.org/10.25318/36280001202500600006-eng
Text begins
This spotlight article highlights recent changes in transborder travel. It discusses the recent declines in Canadian-resident trips to the United States amid policy changes toward Canada implemented by the United States.
The United States has long been Canada’s primary international travel destination, partly because of its proximity and warmer climate. In 2024, Canadian-resident trips to the United States totalled 39 million, representing 75% of all Canadian-resident travel abroad (Statistics Canada, 2025). However, recent data on foreign travel suggest that Canadians’ travel sentiment toward their southern neighbour has been shifting in early 2025.
Automobile travel to the United States declines sharply to start the year
When analyzing Canadian-resident return trips from the United States, two main types of travel are examined: trips by automobile and trips by air. Data on Canadian-resident returns are collected at the land port or airport of arrival when entering Canada. Because the United States shares a long land border with Canada, nearly three-quarters of travel to the United States occurs as Canadians cross land borders by car. These trips are expected to be more sensitive to changes in Canadian sentiment because automobile trips can require less planning and upfront costs, compared with air travel.
Preliminary cross-border travel data show that Canadian-resident return trips by automobile from the United States have fallen sharply since the start of the year, with five consecutive months of steep year over year declines. In May, return trips by automobile declined by 38.1% on a year over year basis, dropping further below the 35.2% decline recorded in April. This trend of declines marked the first time since early 2021, when COVID-19 restrictions were still in place, that Canadian-resident return trips by automobile from the United States declined.
Same-day automobile travel to the United States has generally remained consistent throughout the years; however, notable drops have followed major events such as the September 11, 2001, terrorist attack (-31.2%) and the 2008 financial crisis (-22.8%).Note Excursion (same-day) travel to the United States by automobile dropped abruptly at the start of 2025, after holding consistently positive throughout 2024. Same-day returns fell by 40.3% year over year in May 2025, marking a fourth consecutive month of steep decline, while overnight travel decreased by 34.3%Note (Chart 1).
Data table for Chart 1
| Excursionists (same-day) | Tourists (overnight) | |
|---|---|---|
| year-over-year percent change | ||
| Note: The red line indicates the beginning of the new United States administration.
Source: Statistics Canada, table 24-10-0057-01. |
||
| 2024 | ||
| January | 13.4 | 8.2 |
| February | 25.7 | 10.5 |
| March | 26.3 | 19.0 |
| April | 16.5 | -2.1 |
| May | 18.7 | 2.8 |
| June | 11.5 | 14.5 |
| July | 4.8 | 2.4 |
| August | 6.6 | 3.4 |
| September | 7.1 | 9.8 |
| October | 7.9 | -2.6 |
| November | 9.9 | -1.9 |
| December | 1.8 | 17.8 |
| 2025 | ||
| January | 4.3 | -10.0 |
| February | -25.6 | -16.9 |
| March | -36.0 | -25.6 |
| April | -40.5 | -26.2 |
| May | -40.3 | -34.3 |
The drop in return trips was widespread across the country, with all provinces bordering the United States reporting declines for the first time since the pandemic. Excursion return data from the three largest-volume provinces, which account for 9 in 10 returns in 2024, show that the declines in May were led by Quebec (-52.5%), followed by British Columbia (-52.3%), and Ontario (-33.7%). Windsor, Ontario, where some of Canada’s busiest land ports are located, accounted for 15% of all return traffic in 2024. Same-day returns in Windsor declined by 17.5% year over year in May 2025 (Chart 2).
Data table for Chart 2
| year-over-year percent change | |
|---|---|
| Notes: The top 5 ports of entry are based on 2024 total automobile travel volumes. Windsor, Ontario, refers to both the Ambassador Bridge and the Windsor–Detroit Tunnel.
Source: Statistics Canada, Frontier Counts table 24-10-0057-01. |
|
| Canada | -40.3 |
| Windsor, Ont. | -17.5 |
| Fort Erie, Ont. | -43.7 |
| Douglas, B.C. | -53.2 |
| Pacific Highway, B.C. | -57.9 |
| Niagara Falls (Queenston–Lewiston Bridge), Ont. | -45.4 |
Air travel to the United States continues to decline
Canadian-resident returns from the United States by air are concentrated almost entirely in overnight tourism, representing over 97% of all air returns. Trips to the United States by air accounted for 19.1% of all Canadian-resident return trips from abroad in 2024. Contrasting with automobile travel, Canadian-resident return trips from the United States by air have consistently had negative growth on a year over year basis since September 2023. Canadian-resident return trips by air continued to decline throughout the first five months of 2025, falling by 14.0% year over year in April and by 24.2% in May.
International arrivals in the United States decline from multiple countries
The change in sentiment in Canada may be part of a broader change in travel patterns. US International Trade Administration March data showed a decline in international arrivals from Europe in 2025. Visitors from Western Europe to the US declined by 17% in March on a year over year basis (Financial Times, 2025). While Western European travel to the United States rebounded in April (+12.1% year over year), overall year-to-date travel from overseas to the United States has edged down compared to the same period in 2024 (-0.2%) (United States International Visitor Arrivals Program, 2025). Overseas travel to Canada has followed a similar pattern, edging down -0.6% year over year in April following two months of year over year lows in February (-17.2%) and March (-17.4%).
Canadian-resident travel abroad dropped 18.9% year over year in April 2025 because of the decrease in travel to the United States. Meanwhile, Canadian-resident trips overseas continued to rise, increasing by 8.8% year over year. This shifting preference for travel destinations is reflected in the increased proportion of all Canadian-resident trips abroad to overseas destinations, which rose from 26.9% of trips in April 2024 to 36.1% in 2025.
Looking ahead
The abrupt and steep declines in Canadian residents returning from the United States at the start of 2025 suggest a notable change in travel patterns. However, it is currently unclear whether the change is temporary or part of a more permanent shift.
Start of text box
The Frontier Counts data provide counts of entries into Canada by international travellers at Canadian ports of entry by selected categories, as well as the number of vehicles entering Canada. To further explore current and historical data in an interactive format, see Frontier Counts: Interactive Dashboard.
Recent releases in June include the following:
Leading indicator of international arrivals to Canada, May 2025—June 10
Travel between Canada and other countries, April 2025—June 23
End of text box
Authors
Carter McCormack is with the Strategic Analysis, Publications and Training Division in the Analytical Studies and Modelling Branch at Statistics Canada. Laura Presley is with the Tourism Statistics Program, part of the Centre for Special Business Projects in the Agriculture, Energy and Environment Statistics Branch at Statistics Canada.
References
Financial Times. 2025. European travellers cancel US visits as Trump’s policies threaten tourism. Published April 11, 2025.
Statistics Canada. 2025. Travel between Canada and other countries, December 2024. The Daily. February 21,2025.
United States International Visitor Arrivals Program, 2025. International Visitor Arrivals Program Details. I-94 Arrivals Program. Accessed June 17, 2025.
- Date modified: