Survey Methodology
Small area estimation of general indicators in off-census years

by William Acero, Isabel Molina and J. Miguel MarínNote 1

  • Release date: June 29, 2026
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Abstract

We propose small area estimators of general indicators in off-census years, which avoid the use of deprecated census microdata, but are nearly optimal in census years. The procedure is based on replacing the obsolete census file with a larger unit-level survey that adequately covers the areas of interest and contains the values of useful auxiliary variables. However, the minimal data requirement of the proposed method is a single survey with microdata on the target variable and suitable auxiliary variables for the period of interest. We also develop an estimator of the mean squared error (MSE) that accounts for the uncertainty introduced by the large survey used to replace the census of auxiliary information. Our empirical results indicate that the proposed predictors perform clearly better than the alternative predictors when census data are outdated, and are very close to optimal ones when census data are correct. They also illustrate that the proposed total MSE estimator corrects for the bias of purely model-based MSE estimators that do not account for the large survey uncertainty.

Key Words: Empirical best predictor; General indicators; Mean squared error; Off-census years; Unit-level survey data.

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How to cite

Acero, W., Molina, I. and Marín, J.M. (2026). Small area estimation of general indicators in off-census years. Survey Methodology, 52(1), 27-59. Available at: http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/12-001-x/2026001/article/00012-eng.pdf.

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ISSN : 1492-0921

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Published by authority of the Minister responsible for Statistics Canada.

© His Majesty the King in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Industry, 2026

Use of this publication is governed by the Statistics Canada Open Licence Agreement.

Catalogue No. 12-001-X

Frequency: Semi-annual

Ottawa

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