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The journal Survey Methodology Volume 40, Number 2 (December 2014) contains the following 11 papers:
Waksberg Invited Paper Series
From multiple modes for surveys to multiple data sources for estimates
Constance F. Citro
Users, funders and providers of official statistics want estimates that are “wider, deeper, quicker, better, cheaper” (channeling Tim Holt, former head of the UK Office for National Statistics), to which I would add “more relevant” and “less burdensome”. Since World War II, we have relied heavily on the probability sample survey as the best we could do - and that best being very good - to meet these goals for estimates of household income and unemployment, self-reported health status, time use, crime victimization, business activity, commodity flows, consumer and business expenditures, et al. Faced with secularly declining unit and item response rates and evidence of reporting error, we have responded in many ways, including the use of multiple survey modes, more sophisticated weighting and imputation methods, adaptive design, cognitive testing of survey items, and other means to maintain data quality. For statistics on the business sector, in order to reduce burden and costs, we long ago moved away from relying solely on surveys to produce needed estimates, but, to date, we have not done that for household surveys, at least not in the United States. I argue that we can and must move from a paradigm of producing the best estimates possible from a survey to that of producing the best possible estimates to meet user needs from multiple data sources. Such sources include administrative records and, increasingly, transaction and Internet-based data. I provide two examples - household income and plumbing facilities - to illustrate my thesis. I suggest ways to inculcate a culture of official statistics that focuses on the end result of relevant, timely, accurate and cost-effective statistics and treats surveys, along with other data sources, as means to that end.
Frequentist and Bayesian approaches for comparing interviewer variance components in two groups of survey interviewers
Brady T. West and Michael R. Elliott
Survey methodologists have long studied the effects of interviewers on the variance of survey estimates. Statistical models including random interviewer effects are often fitted in such investigations, and research interest lies in the magnitude of the interviewer variance component. One question that might arise in a methodological investigation is whether or not different groups of interviewers (e.g., those with prior experience on a given survey vs. new hires, or CAPI interviewers vs. CATI interviewers) have significantly different variance components in these models. Significant differences may indicate a need for additional training in particular subgroups, or sub-optimal properties of different modes or interviewing styles for particular survey items (in terms of the overall mean squared error of survey estimates). Survey researchers seeking answers to these types of questions have different statistical tools available to them. This paper aims to provide an overview of alternative frequentist and Bayesian approaches to the comparison of variance components in different groups of survey interviewers, using a hierarchical generalized linear modeling framework that accommodates a variety of different types of survey variables. We first consider the benefits and limitations of each approach, contrasting the methods used for estimation and inference. We next present a simulation study, empirically evaluating the ability of each approach to efficiently estimate differences in variance components. We then apply the two approaches to an analysis of real survey data collected in the U.S. National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG). We conclude that the two approaches tend to result in very similar inferences, and we provide suggestions for practice given some of the subtle differences observed.
Bagging non-differentiable estimators in complex surveys
Jianqiang C. Wang, Jean D. Opsomer and Haonan Wang
Bagging is a powerful computational method used to improve the performance of inefficient estimators. This article is a first exploration of the use of bagging in survey estimation, and we investigate the effects of bagging on non-differentiable survey estimators including sample distribution functions and quantiles, among others. The theoretical properties of bagged survey estimators are investigated under both design-based and model-based regimes. In particular, we show the design consistency of the bagged estimators, and obtain the asymptotic normality of the estimators in the model-based context. The article describes how implementation of bagging for survey estimators can take advantage of replicates developed for survey variance estimation, providing an easy way for practitioners to apply bagging in existing surveys. A major remaining challenge in implementing bagging in the survey context is variance estimation for the bagged estimators themselves, and we explore two possible variance estimation approaches. Simulation experiments reveal the improvement of the proposed bagging estimator relative to the original estimator and compare the two variance estimation approaches.
Fractional hot deck imputation for robust inference under item nonresponse in survey sampling
Jae Kwang Kim and Shu Yang
Parametric fractional imputation (PFI), proposed by Kim (2011), is a tool for general purpose parameter estimation under missing data. We propose a fractional hot deck imputation (FHDI) which is more robust than PFI or multiple imputation. In the proposed method, the imputed values are chosen from the set of respondents and assigned proper fractional weights. The weights are then adjusted to meet certain calibration conditions, which makes the resulting FHDI estimator efficient. Two simulation studies are presented to compare the proposed method with existing methods.
Potential gains from using unit level cost information in a model-assisted framework
David G. Steel and Robert Graham Clark
In developing the sample design for a survey we attempt to produce a good design for the funds available. Information on costs can be used to develop sample designs that minimise the sampling variance of an estimator of total for fixed cost. Improvements in survey management systems mean that it is now sometimes possible to estimate the cost of including each unit in the sample. This paper develops relatively simple approaches to determine whether the potential gains arising from using this unit level cost information are likely to be of practical use. It is shown that the key factor is the coefficient of variation of the costs relative to the coefficient of variation of the relative error on the estimated cost coefficients.
Optimal solutions in controlled selection problems with two-way stratification
Sun Woong Kim, Steven G. Heeringa and Peter W. Solenberger
When considering sample stratification by several variables, we often face the case where the expected number of sample units to be selected in each stratum is very small and the total number of units to be selected is smaller than the total number of strata. These stratified sample designs are specifically represented by the tabular arrays with real numbers, called controlled selection problems, and are beyond the reach of conventional methods of allocation. Many algorithms for solving these problems have been studied over about 60 years beginning with Goodman and Kish (1950). Those developed more recently are especially computer intensive and always find the solutions. However, there still remains the unanswered question: In what sense are the solutions to a controlled selection problem obtained from those algorithms optimal? We introduce the general concept of optimal solutions, and propose a new controlled selection algorithm based on typical distance functions to achieve solutions. This algorithm can be easily performed by a new SAS-based software. This study focuses on two-way stratification designs. The controlled selection solutions from the new algorithm are compared with those from existing algorithms using several examples. The new algorithm successfully obtains robust solutions to two-way controlled selection problems that meet the optimality criteria.
On aligned composite estimates from overlapping samples for growth rates and totals
When monthly business surveys are not completely overlapping, there are two different estimators for the monthly growth rate of the turnover: (i) one that is based on the monthly estimated population totals and (ii) one that is purely based on enterprises observed on both occasions in the overlap of the corresponding surveys. The resulting estimates and variances might be quite different. This paper proposes an optimal composite estimator for the growth rate as well as the population totals.
The estimation of gross flows in complex surveys with random nonresponse
Andrés Gutiérrez, Leonardo Trujillo and Pedro Luis do Nascimento Silva
Rotating panel surveys are used to calculate estimates of gross flows between two consecutive periods of measurement. This paper considers a general procedure for the estimation of gross flows when the rotating panel survey has been generated from a complex survey design with random nonresponse. A pseudo maximum likelihood approach is considered through a two-stage model of Markov chains for the allocation of individuals among the categories in the survey and for modeling for nonresponse.
Chi-squared tests in dual frame surveys
In order to obtain better coverage of the population of interest and cost less, a number of surveys employ dual frame structure, in which independent samples are taken from two overlapping sampling frames. This research considers chi-squared tests in dual frame surveys when categorical data is encountered. We extend generalized Wald’s test (Wald 1943), Rao-Scott first-order and second-order corrected tests (Rao and Scott 1981) from a single survey to a dual frame survey and derive the asymptotic distributions. Simulation studies show that both Rao-Scott type corrected tests work well and thus are recommended for use in dual frame surveys. An example is given to illustrate the usage of the developed tests.
Estimation methods on multiple sampling frames in two-stage sample designs
Guillaume Chauvet and Guylène Tandeau de Marsac
When studying a finite population, it is sometimes necessary to select samples from several sampling frames in order to represent all individuals. Here we are interested in the scenario where two samples are selected using a two-stage design, with common first-stage selection. We apply the Hartley (1962), Bankier (1986) and Kalton and Anderson (1986) methods, and we show that these methods can be applied conditional on first-stage selection. We also compare the performance of several estimators as part of a simulation study. Our results suggest that the estimator should be chosen carefully when there are multiple sampling frames, and that a simple estimator is sometimes preferable, even if it uses only part of the information collected.
Combining information from multiple complex surveys
Qi Dong, Michael R. Elliott and Trivellore E. Raghunathan
This manuscript describes the use of multiple imputation to combine information from multiple surveys of the same underlying population. We use a newly developed method to generate synthetic populations nonparametrically using a finite population Bayesian bootstrap that automatically accounts for complex sample designs. We then analyze each synthetic population with standard complete-data software for simple random samples and obtain valid inference by combining the point and variance estimates using extensions of existing combining rules for synthetic data. We illustrate the approach by combining data from the 2006 National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) and the 2006 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS).