Analysis

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• 1. A balanced sampling approach for multi-way stratification designs for small area estimation Archived

  Articles and reports: 12-001-X200800210763

  Description:

  The present work illustrates a sampling strategy useful for obtaining planned sample size for domains belonging to different partitions of the population and in order to guarantee the sampling errors of domain estimates be lower than given thresholds. The sampling strategy that covers the multivariate multi-domain case is useful when the overall sample size is bounded and consequently the standard solution of using a stratified sample with the strata given by cross-classification of variables defining the different partitions is not feasible since the number of strata is larger than the overall sample size. The proposed sampling strategy is based on the use of balanced sampling selection technique and on a GREG-type estimation. The main advantages of the solution is the computational feasibility which allows one to easily implement an overall small area strategy considering jointly the sampling design and the estimator and improving the efficiency of the direct domain estimators. An empirical simulation on real population data and different domain estimators shows the empirical properties of the examined sample strategy.

  Release date: 2008-12-23

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• 2. Small area estimation under a restriction Archived

  Articles and reports: 12-001-X200800110619

  Description:

  Small area prediction based on random effects, called EBLUP, is a procedure for constructing estimates for small geographical areas or small subpopulations using existing survey data. The total of the small area predictors is often forced to equal the direct survey estimate and such predictors are said to be calibrated. Several calibrated predictors are reviewed and a criterion that unifies the derivation of these calibrated predictors is presented. The predictor that is the unique best linear unbiased predictor under the criterion is derived and the mean square error of the calibrated predictors is discussed. Implicit in the imposition of the restriction is the possibility that the small area model is misspecified and the predictors are biased. Augmented models with one additional explanatory variable for which the usual small area predictors achieve the self-calibrated property are considered. Simulations demonstrate that calibrated predictors have slightly smaller bias compared to those of the usual EBLUP predictor. However, if the bias is a concern, a better approach is to use an augmented model with an added auxiliary variable that is a function of area size. In the simulation, the predictors based on the augmented model had smaller MSE than EBLUP when the incorrect model was used for prediction. Furthermore, there was a very small increase in MSE relative to EBLUP if the auxiliary variable was added to the correct model.

  Release date: 2008-06-26

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• 3. Small area estimation of average household income based on unit level models for panel data Archived

  Articles and reports: 12-001-X200700210496

  Description:

  The European Community Household Panel (ECHP) is a panel survey covering a wide range of topics regarding economic, social and living conditions. In particular, it makes it possible to calculate disposable equivalized household income, which is a key variable in the study of economic inequity and poverty. To obtain reliable estimates of the average of this variable for regions within countries it is necessary to have recourse to small area estimation methods. In this paper, we focus on empirical best linear predictors of the average equivalized income based on "unit level models" borrowing strength across both areas and times. Using a simulation study based on ECHP data, we compare the suggested estimators with cross-sectional model-based and design-based estimators. In the case of these empirical predictors, we also compare three different MSE estimators. Results show that those estimators connected to models that take units' autocorrelation into account lead to a significant gain in efficiency, even when there are no covariates available whose population mean is known.

  Release date: 2008-01-03

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Articles and reports (3) ((3 results))

• 1. A balanced sampling approach for multi-way stratification designs for small area estimation Archived

  Articles and reports: 12-001-X200800210763

  Description:

  The present work illustrates a sampling strategy useful for obtaining planned sample size for domains belonging to different partitions of the population and in order to guarantee the sampling errors of domain estimates be lower than given thresholds. The sampling strategy that covers the multivariate multi-domain case is useful when the overall sample size is bounded and consequently the standard solution of using a stratified sample with the strata given by cross-classification of variables defining the different partitions is not feasible since the number of strata is larger than the overall sample size. The proposed sampling strategy is based on the use of balanced sampling selection technique and on a GREG-type estimation. The main advantages of the solution is the computational feasibility which allows one to easily implement an overall small area strategy considering jointly the sampling design and the estimator and improving the efficiency of the direct domain estimators. An empirical simulation on real population data and different domain estimators shows the empirical properties of the examined sample strategy.

  Release date: 2008-12-23

  ---

• 2. Small area estimation under a restriction Archived

  Articles and reports: 12-001-X200800110619

  Description:

  Small area prediction based on random effects, called EBLUP, is a procedure for constructing estimates for small geographical areas or small subpopulations using existing survey data. The total of the small area predictors is often forced to equal the direct survey estimate and such predictors are said to be calibrated. Several calibrated predictors are reviewed and a criterion that unifies the derivation of these calibrated predictors is presented. The predictor that is the unique best linear unbiased predictor under the criterion is derived and the mean square error of the calibrated predictors is discussed. Implicit in the imposition of the restriction is the possibility that the small area model is misspecified and the predictors are biased. Augmented models with one additional explanatory variable for which the usual small area predictors achieve the self-calibrated property are considered. Simulations demonstrate that calibrated predictors have slightly smaller bias compared to those of the usual EBLUP predictor. However, if the bias is a concern, a better approach is to use an augmented model with an added auxiliary variable that is a function of area size. In the simulation, the predictors based on the augmented model had smaller MSE than EBLUP when the incorrect model was used for prediction. Furthermore, there was a very small increase in MSE relative to EBLUP if the auxiliary variable was added to the correct model.

  Release date: 2008-06-26

  ---

• 3. Small area estimation of average household income based on unit level models for panel data Archived

  Articles and reports: 12-001-X200700210496

  Description:

  The European Community Household Panel (ECHP) is a panel survey covering a wide range of topics regarding economic, social and living conditions. In particular, it makes it possible to calculate disposable equivalized household income, which is a key variable in the study of economic inequity and poverty. To obtain reliable estimates of the average of this variable for regions within countries it is necessary to have recourse to small area estimation methods. In this paper, we focus on empirical best linear predictors of the average equivalized income based on "unit level models" borrowing strength across both areas and times. Using a simulation study based on ECHP data, we compare the suggested estimators with cross-sectional model-based and design-based estimators. In the case of these empirical predictors, we also compare three different MSE estimators. Results show that those estimators connected to models that take units' autocorrelation into account lead to a significant gain in efficiency, even when there are no covariates available whose population mean is known.

  Release date: 2008-01-03

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