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- Articles and reports: 11F0019M1997111Geography: CanadaDescription:
Recent studies have shown that companies with relatively high debt-to-asset (leverage) ratios exhibit more variability in investment and employment patterns. Other studies argue that high aggregate corporate leverage is associated with macroeconomic instability. This paper establishes and compares the evolution of aggregate corporate leverage trends in Canada and the United States from 1961 to 1996. Leverage has increased nearly 50 percent in both countries, and the majority of this increase is attributable to a greater use of short-term debt instruments. Although the magnitude of the increase is similar in both countries, the period harboring the lion's share of the increase is country-specific.
Most of the increase in corporate leverage in Canada occurred between 1974 to 1983; a period associated with low real interest rates and rapid capital expansion in western Canada. The brunt of the increase in American corporate leverage occurred between 1982 and 1990. Over this period, U.S. companies were in the process of massive capital restructuring by purchasing outstanding equity with borrowed funds. This period was also associated with an increase in the number and value of U.S. leveraged buy-outs that aided in pushing financial leverage higher.
Release date: 1997-12-11 - 2. Trickling Down or Fizzling Out? Economic Performance, Transfers, Inequality and Low Income ArchivedArticles and reports: 11F0019M1997110Geography: CanadaDescription:
The objectives of this paper are to determine the empirical relationships between economic performance, transfers and low income among Canadian families, and to explore whether these relationships have changed over time. Similar recent studies in the US find a weakening in the relationship between economic growth and low income reduction over the past 25 years. Using data from the Survey of Consumer Finances of Statistics Canada, we find that there is a statistically significant negative relationship between economic performance and the incidence of low income among families in Canada for the period from 1973 to 1995. Government transfers are also found to lift families above the low income threshold. These results are robust across different family types and for three different measures of low income.
We also find a weakening in the relationship between improved economic performance and low income reduction for most family types between 1973 and 1995, and for all family types after 1980. This weakening is associated with rising pre-transfer income inequality among families. Increasing inequality has also reduced the negative impact of transfers on low income rates.
Release date: 1997-11-25 - Articles and reports: 11F0019M1997106Geography: Canada, Province or territoryDescription:
This paper documents job turnover and labour market adjustment activities in the Ontario economy from 1978 to 1993. The following highlights the major findings. Both the permanent layoff rate and the total permanent separation rate vary substantially from one industry to another. In 1992, the permanent layoff and total permanent separation rates ranged from 27.3% and 34.2% in construction to only 1.4% and 9.3% in public services, respectively. The permanent layoff rate and the total permanent separation rate also differ noticeably by gender, age and firm size - in most industries, the rates are higher among male workers than among females, higher among younger workers, and higher among smaller employers.
While the permanent layoff rate increases during business cycle downturns and decreases during business cycle upswings, the reverse trend is observed with the total permanent separation rate. This is because the quit rate and the other permanent separation rate both decline during downturns and rise during upswings, more than offsetting the opposite trend associated with the permanent layoff rate.
These univariate-tabulation findings are confirmed in the multi-variate logistic regression results on the statistical determinants of permanent layoffs and total permanent separations. In most industries, after controlling for gender, age, firm size and time periods, the estimated likelihood of permanent layoffs is lower among female workers, decreases significantly with age and firm size, increases during recessions and decreases during recovery and expansion in most industries. The patterns of estimated incidence of total permanent separations are very similar to those of permanent layoffs except that total permanent separations decline during business cycle downturns and climb during business cycle upswings.
Permanently separated workers have had a much more difficult time in finding employment during the most recent recession than any other time in the past 15 years. Almost 40% of those who lost or left a job in 1989 did not have a job in 1993. This is in marked contrast with the experience of the early 1980s, when 29% of permanently separated workers were jobless 3 years after the separation. A very similar trend is found when the analysis is applied to labour market transitions among permanently laid-off workers.
There is a great deal of out-of-province migration among permanently separated workers who did find a job. Nearly 45% of those who lost or left a job in 1989 and found a job in 1993 were employed outside of Ontario. An identical proportion of permanently laid-off workers is found to be employed in other provinces.
Release date: 1997-10-31 - Articles and reports: 11F0019M1997103Geography: CanadaDescription:
Canadians are increasingly concerned about permanent layoffs, as many feel job instability and the possibility of job loss has increased in the 1990s. Governments, confronted with a large number of permanent layoffs each year, need to know how to respond to improve labour adjustment and the possibility of quickly finding a new job for displaced workers. Within this context, this paper uses a new longitudinal data source on the separations of workers to address three issues. First, has there in fact been an increase in the permanent layoff rate in Canada in the 1990s, as one might anticipate given concerns about rising job instability? Second, what are the underlying causes of most permanent layoffs? The paper explicitly examines the role played by cyclical variation in aggregate demand, variation in industrial demand which is often associated with structural change, and differences in layoff rates by firm size which is in turn associated with the birth and death process of firms.
Third, with this as background, the core of the paper asks a question of concern to policy analysts: are most permanent layoffs rare events for workers, or are they a continuation of a pattern of repeat layoffs? This is important because a worker who is confronted with a layoff which is a rare event will require very different post-displacement adjustment assistance from someone whose history of employment has been marked with frequent layoffs, suggesting an inability to hold a job or demand-side instability in the firm or industry in which the person has worked. The workers' employment history over 10 years is used to explore the relationship between permanent layoff history and the probability of being laid off. Displaced workers are classified "low-risk", "medium-risk" and "high-risk" based on their layoff history, and multinomial logistic analysis is used to distinguish worker and firm characteristics associated with repeat layoffs or layoffs as rare events.
Release date: 1997-09-12 - Articles and reports: 12-001-X19970013108Description:
We show how the use of matrix calculus can simplify the derivation of the linearization of the regression coefficient estimator and the regression estimator.
Release date: 1997-08-18
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Articles and reports (5)
Articles and reports (5) ((5 results))
- Articles and reports: 11F0019M1997111Geography: CanadaDescription:
Recent studies have shown that companies with relatively high debt-to-asset (leverage) ratios exhibit more variability in investment and employment patterns. Other studies argue that high aggregate corporate leverage is associated with macroeconomic instability. This paper establishes and compares the evolution of aggregate corporate leverage trends in Canada and the United States from 1961 to 1996. Leverage has increased nearly 50 percent in both countries, and the majority of this increase is attributable to a greater use of short-term debt instruments. Although the magnitude of the increase is similar in both countries, the period harboring the lion's share of the increase is country-specific.
Most of the increase in corporate leverage in Canada occurred between 1974 to 1983; a period associated with low real interest rates and rapid capital expansion in western Canada. The brunt of the increase in American corporate leverage occurred between 1982 and 1990. Over this period, U.S. companies were in the process of massive capital restructuring by purchasing outstanding equity with borrowed funds. This period was also associated with an increase in the number and value of U.S. leveraged buy-outs that aided in pushing financial leverage higher.
Release date: 1997-12-11 - 2. Trickling Down or Fizzling Out? Economic Performance, Transfers, Inequality and Low Income ArchivedArticles and reports: 11F0019M1997110Geography: CanadaDescription:
The objectives of this paper are to determine the empirical relationships between economic performance, transfers and low income among Canadian families, and to explore whether these relationships have changed over time. Similar recent studies in the US find a weakening in the relationship between economic growth and low income reduction over the past 25 years. Using data from the Survey of Consumer Finances of Statistics Canada, we find that there is a statistically significant negative relationship between economic performance and the incidence of low income among families in Canada for the period from 1973 to 1995. Government transfers are also found to lift families above the low income threshold. These results are robust across different family types and for three different measures of low income.
We also find a weakening in the relationship between improved economic performance and low income reduction for most family types between 1973 and 1995, and for all family types after 1980. This weakening is associated with rising pre-transfer income inequality among families. Increasing inequality has also reduced the negative impact of transfers on low income rates.
Release date: 1997-11-25 - Articles and reports: 11F0019M1997106Geography: Canada, Province or territoryDescription:
This paper documents job turnover and labour market adjustment activities in the Ontario economy from 1978 to 1993. The following highlights the major findings. Both the permanent layoff rate and the total permanent separation rate vary substantially from one industry to another. In 1992, the permanent layoff and total permanent separation rates ranged from 27.3% and 34.2% in construction to only 1.4% and 9.3% in public services, respectively. The permanent layoff rate and the total permanent separation rate also differ noticeably by gender, age and firm size - in most industries, the rates are higher among male workers than among females, higher among younger workers, and higher among smaller employers.
While the permanent layoff rate increases during business cycle downturns and decreases during business cycle upswings, the reverse trend is observed with the total permanent separation rate. This is because the quit rate and the other permanent separation rate both decline during downturns and rise during upswings, more than offsetting the opposite trend associated with the permanent layoff rate.
These univariate-tabulation findings are confirmed in the multi-variate logistic regression results on the statistical determinants of permanent layoffs and total permanent separations. In most industries, after controlling for gender, age, firm size and time periods, the estimated likelihood of permanent layoffs is lower among female workers, decreases significantly with age and firm size, increases during recessions and decreases during recovery and expansion in most industries. The patterns of estimated incidence of total permanent separations are very similar to those of permanent layoffs except that total permanent separations decline during business cycle downturns and climb during business cycle upswings.
Permanently separated workers have had a much more difficult time in finding employment during the most recent recession than any other time in the past 15 years. Almost 40% of those who lost or left a job in 1989 did not have a job in 1993. This is in marked contrast with the experience of the early 1980s, when 29% of permanently separated workers were jobless 3 years after the separation. A very similar trend is found when the analysis is applied to labour market transitions among permanently laid-off workers.
There is a great deal of out-of-province migration among permanently separated workers who did find a job. Nearly 45% of those who lost or left a job in 1989 and found a job in 1993 were employed outside of Ontario. An identical proportion of permanently laid-off workers is found to be employed in other provinces.
Release date: 1997-10-31 - Articles and reports: 11F0019M1997103Geography: CanadaDescription:
Canadians are increasingly concerned about permanent layoffs, as many feel job instability and the possibility of job loss has increased in the 1990s. Governments, confronted with a large number of permanent layoffs each year, need to know how to respond to improve labour adjustment and the possibility of quickly finding a new job for displaced workers. Within this context, this paper uses a new longitudinal data source on the separations of workers to address three issues. First, has there in fact been an increase in the permanent layoff rate in Canada in the 1990s, as one might anticipate given concerns about rising job instability? Second, what are the underlying causes of most permanent layoffs? The paper explicitly examines the role played by cyclical variation in aggregate demand, variation in industrial demand which is often associated with structural change, and differences in layoff rates by firm size which is in turn associated with the birth and death process of firms.
Third, with this as background, the core of the paper asks a question of concern to policy analysts: are most permanent layoffs rare events for workers, or are they a continuation of a pattern of repeat layoffs? This is important because a worker who is confronted with a layoff which is a rare event will require very different post-displacement adjustment assistance from someone whose history of employment has been marked with frequent layoffs, suggesting an inability to hold a job or demand-side instability in the firm or industry in which the person has worked. The workers' employment history over 10 years is used to explore the relationship between permanent layoff history and the probability of being laid off. Displaced workers are classified "low-risk", "medium-risk" and "high-risk" based on their layoff history, and multinomial logistic analysis is used to distinguish worker and firm characteristics associated with repeat layoffs or layoffs as rare events.
Release date: 1997-09-12 - Articles and reports: 12-001-X19970013108Description:
We show how the use of matrix calculus can simplify the derivation of the linearization of the regression coefficient estimator and the regression estimator.
Release date: 1997-08-18
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