Analysis

Previous research has suggested that skills acquired at a young age, such as reading or math skills, may have an impact on the early labour market outcomes of individuals. In this study, tax data linked to the Youth in Transition Survey (YITS) and the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) are used to examine the association between background factors at age 15 (including reading proficiency) and employment earnings in young adulthood for a cohort of respondents who were aged 15 in 2000.

Dropout rates, defined as the proportion of 20 to 24 year-olds without a high school diploma and not attending school, have been trending downward. Data from the Labour Force Survey shows that the rate for men fell from 21% in 1990/1991 to 14% in 2004/2005; for women, the rates were 16% in 1990/1991 and 9% in 2004/2005. Many dropouts later return to school, taking advantage of the 'second-chance' educational opportunities offered by provinces and institutions across Canada.

This report uses data from the Youth in Transition Survey to analyze the determinants of the return-to-school. The analysis finds that dropout rates are lower among young women than among young men and that, if they do dropout before completing high school, young women are also more likely to return to school than young men.

Young male and female dropouts are influenced by different factors in their decision to return to school. For young male dropouts, two of the strongest predictors of the decision to return to school are their parents' education and having taken, in high school, a mathematics course designed to prepare them for postsecondary studies. Young men who dropped out in their last year of high school were more likely to return to school than their counterparts who had dropped out earlier. For young women, time elapsed since leaving school is the most influential factor. However, young women who left school due to personal reasons (most often, pregnancy) are 30% more likely to return than other female dropouts.

Previous research has suggested that skills acquired at a young age, such as reading or math skills, may have an impact on the early labour market outcomes of individuals. In this study, tax data linked to the Youth in Transition Survey (YITS) and the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) are used to examine the association between background factors at age 15 (including reading proficiency) and employment earnings in young adulthood for a cohort of respondents who were aged 15 in 2000.

Dropout rates, defined as the proportion of 20 to 24 year-olds without a high school diploma and not attending school, have been trending downward. Data from the Labour Force Survey shows that the rate for men fell from 21% in 1990/1991 to 14% in 2004/2005; for women, the rates were 16% in 1990/1991 and 9% in 2004/2005. Many dropouts later return to school, taking advantage of the 'second-chance' educational opportunities offered by provinces and institutions across Canada.

This report uses data from the Youth in Transition Survey to analyze the determinants of the return-to-school. The analysis finds that dropout rates are lower among young women than among young men and that, if they do dropout before completing high school, young women are also more likely to return to school than young men.

Young male and female dropouts are influenced by different factors in their decision to return to school. For young male dropouts, two of the strongest predictors of the decision to return to school are their parents' education and having taken, in high school, a mathematics course designed to prepare them for postsecondary studies. Young men who dropped out in their last year of high school were more likely to return to school than their counterparts who had dropped out earlier. For young women, time elapsed since leaving school is the most influential factor. However, young women who left school due to personal reasons (most often, pregnancy) are 30% more likely to return than other female dropouts.