Analysis

The maximum likelihood estimation of a non-linear benchmarking model, proposed by Laniel and Fyfe (1989; 1990), is considered. This model takes into account the biases and sampling errors associated with the original series. Since the maximum likelihood estimators of the model parameters are not obtainable in closed forms, two iterative procedures to find the maximum likelihood estimates are discussed. The closed form expressions for the asymptotic variances and covariances of the benchmarked series, and of the fitted values are also provided. The methodology is illustrated using published Canadian retail trade data.

Benchmarking is a method of improving estimates from a sub-annual survey with the help of corresponding estimates from an annual survey. For example, estimates of monthly retail sales might be improved using estimates from the annual survey. This article deals, first with the problem posed by the benchmarking of time series produced by economic surveys, and then reviews the most relevant methods for solving this problem. Next, two new statistical methods are proposed, based on a non-linear model for sub-annual data. The benchmarked estimates are then obtained by applying weighted least squares.

This study purports to assess whether there are temporal relationships between Unemployment Insurance Beneficiaries, Total Unemployment, Job Losers and Job Leavers in Canada using univariate and multivariate time series methods. The results indicate that during 1975-82 the Unemployment Insurance Beneficiaries series leads: (1) Total Unemployment by one month and (2) Job Leavers by two months. On the other hand, there are evidence of a feedback relationship between Unemployment Insurance Beneficiaries and Job Losers.

The maximum likelihood estimation of a non-linear benchmarking model, proposed by Laniel and Fyfe (1989; 1990), is considered. This model takes into account the biases and sampling errors associated with the original series. Since the maximum likelihood estimators of the model parameters are not obtainable in closed forms, two iterative procedures to find the maximum likelihood estimates are discussed. The closed form expressions for the asymptotic variances and covariances of the benchmarked series, and of the fitted values are also provided. The methodology is illustrated using published Canadian retail trade data.

Benchmarking is a method of improving estimates from a sub-annual survey with the help of corresponding estimates from an annual survey. For example, estimates of monthly retail sales might be improved using estimates from the annual survey. This article deals, first with the problem posed by the benchmarking of time series produced by economic surveys, and then reviews the most relevant methods for solving this problem. Next, two new statistical methods are proposed, based on a non-linear model for sub-annual data. The benchmarked estimates are then obtained by applying weighted least squares.

This study purports to assess whether there are temporal relationships between Unemployment Insurance Beneficiaries, Total Unemployment, Job Losers and Job Leavers in Canada using univariate and multivariate time series methods. The results indicate that during 1975-82 the Unemployment Insurance Beneficiaries series leads: (1) Total Unemployment by one month and (2) Job Leavers by two months. On the other hand, there are evidence of a feedback relationship between Unemployment Insurance Beneficiaries and Job Losers.