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- Articles and reports: 11-633-X2019004Description:
This paper shows how to estimate the effect of the Canada-United States border on non-energy goods trade at a sub-provincial/state level using Statistics Canada’s Surface Transportation File (STF), augmented with United States domestic trade data. It uses a gravity model framework to compare cross-border to domestic trade flows among 201 Canadian and United States regions in year 2012. It shows that some 25 years after the Canada-United States Free Trade Agreement (the North American Free Trade Agreement’s predecessor) was ratified, the cost of trading goods across the border still amounts to a 30% tariff on bilateral trade between Canadian and United States regions. The paper also demonstrates how these estimates can be used along with general equilibrium Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood (GEPPML) methods to describe the effect of changing border costs on North American trade patterns and regional welfare.
Release date: 2019-09-24 - Articles and reports: 12-001-X201900200006Description:
This paper presents a new algorithm to solve the one-dimensional optimal stratification problem, which reduces to just determining stratum boundaries. When the number of strata H and the total sample size n are fixed, the stratum boundaries are obtained by minimizing the variance of the estimator of a total for the stratification variable. This algorithm uses the Biased Random Key Genetic Algorithm (BRKGA) metaheuristic to search for the optimal solution. This metaheuristic has been shown to produce good quality solutions for many optimization problems in modest computing times. The algorithm is implemented in the R package stratbr available from CRAN (de Moura Brito, do Nascimento Silva and da Veiga, 2017a). Numerical results are provided for a set of 27 populations, enabling comparison of the new algorithm with some competing approaches available in the literature. The algorithm outperforms simpler approximation-based approaches as well as a couple of other optimization-based approaches. It also matches the performance of the best available optimization-based approach due to Kozak (2004). Its main advantage over Kozak’s approach is the coupling of the optimal stratification with the optimal allocation proposed by de Moura Brito, do Nascimento Silva, Silva Semaan and Maculan (2015), thus ensuring that if the stratification bounds obtained achieve the global optimal, then the overall solution will be the global optimum for the stratification bounds and sample allocation.
Release date: 2019-06-27 - Articles and reports: 12-001-X201900200009Description:
In recent years, there has been a strong interest in indirect measures of nonresponse bias in surveys or other forms of data collection. This interest originates from gradually decreasing propensities to respond to surveys parallel to pressures on survey budgets. These developments led to a growing focus on the representativeness or balance of the responding sample units with respect to relevant auxiliary variables. One example of a measure is the representativeness indicator, or R-indicator. The R-indicator is based on the design-weighted sample variation of estimated response propensities. It pre-supposes linked auxiliary data. One of the criticisms of the indicator is that it cannot be used in settings where auxiliary information is available only at the population level. In this paper, we propose a new method for estimating response propensities that does not need auxiliary information for non-respondents to the survey and is based on population auxiliary information. These population-based response propensities can then be used to develop R-indicators that employ population contingency tables or population frequency counts. We discuss the statistical properties of the indicators, and evaluate their performance using an evaluation study based on real census data and an application from the Dutch Health Survey.
Release date: 2019-06-27 - 4. Measurement error in small area estimation: Functional versus structural versus naïve models ArchivedArticles and reports: 12-001-X201900100005Description:
Small area estimation using area-level models can sometimes benefit from covariates that are observed subject to random errors, such as covariates that are themselves estimates drawn from another survey. Given estimates of the variances of these measurement (sampling) errors for each small area, one can account for the uncertainty in such covariates using measurement error models (e.g., Ybarra and Lohr, 2008). Two types of area-level measurement error models have been examined in the small area estimation literature. The functional measurement error model assumes that the underlying true values of the covariates with measurement error are fixed but unknown quantities. The structural measurement error model assumes that these true values follow a model, leading to a multivariate model for the covariates observed with error and the original dependent variable. We compare and contrast these two models with the alternative of simply ignoring measurement error when it is present (naïve model), exploring the consequences for prediction mean squared errors of use of an incorrect model under different underlying assumptions about the true model. Comparisons done using analytic formulas for the mean squared errors assuming model parameters are known yield some surprising results. We also illustrate results with a model fitted to data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates (SAIPE) Program.
Release date: 2019-05-07
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Articles and reports (4)
Articles and reports (4) ((4 results))
- Articles and reports: 11-633-X2019004Description:
This paper shows how to estimate the effect of the Canada-United States border on non-energy goods trade at a sub-provincial/state level using Statistics Canada’s Surface Transportation File (STF), augmented with United States domestic trade data. It uses a gravity model framework to compare cross-border to domestic trade flows among 201 Canadian and United States regions in year 2012. It shows that some 25 years after the Canada-United States Free Trade Agreement (the North American Free Trade Agreement’s predecessor) was ratified, the cost of trading goods across the border still amounts to a 30% tariff on bilateral trade between Canadian and United States regions. The paper also demonstrates how these estimates can be used along with general equilibrium Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood (GEPPML) methods to describe the effect of changing border costs on North American trade patterns and regional welfare.
Release date: 2019-09-24 - Articles and reports: 12-001-X201900200006Description:
This paper presents a new algorithm to solve the one-dimensional optimal stratification problem, which reduces to just determining stratum boundaries. When the number of strata H and the total sample size n are fixed, the stratum boundaries are obtained by minimizing the variance of the estimator of a total for the stratification variable. This algorithm uses the Biased Random Key Genetic Algorithm (BRKGA) metaheuristic to search for the optimal solution. This metaheuristic has been shown to produce good quality solutions for many optimization problems in modest computing times. The algorithm is implemented in the R package stratbr available from CRAN (de Moura Brito, do Nascimento Silva and da Veiga, 2017a). Numerical results are provided for a set of 27 populations, enabling comparison of the new algorithm with some competing approaches available in the literature. The algorithm outperforms simpler approximation-based approaches as well as a couple of other optimization-based approaches. It also matches the performance of the best available optimization-based approach due to Kozak (2004). Its main advantage over Kozak’s approach is the coupling of the optimal stratification with the optimal allocation proposed by de Moura Brito, do Nascimento Silva, Silva Semaan and Maculan (2015), thus ensuring that if the stratification bounds obtained achieve the global optimal, then the overall solution will be the global optimum for the stratification bounds and sample allocation.
Release date: 2019-06-27 - Articles and reports: 12-001-X201900200009Description:
In recent years, there has been a strong interest in indirect measures of nonresponse bias in surveys or other forms of data collection. This interest originates from gradually decreasing propensities to respond to surveys parallel to pressures on survey budgets. These developments led to a growing focus on the representativeness or balance of the responding sample units with respect to relevant auxiliary variables. One example of a measure is the representativeness indicator, or R-indicator. The R-indicator is based on the design-weighted sample variation of estimated response propensities. It pre-supposes linked auxiliary data. One of the criticisms of the indicator is that it cannot be used in settings where auxiliary information is available only at the population level. In this paper, we propose a new method for estimating response propensities that does not need auxiliary information for non-respondents to the survey and is based on population auxiliary information. These population-based response propensities can then be used to develop R-indicators that employ population contingency tables or population frequency counts. We discuss the statistical properties of the indicators, and evaluate their performance using an evaluation study based on real census data and an application from the Dutch Health Survey.
Release date: 2019-06-27 - 4. Measurement error in small area estimation: Functional versus structural versus naïve models ArchivedArticles and reports: 12-001-X201900100005Description:
Small area estimation using area-level models can sometimes benefit from covariates that are observed subject to random errors, such as covariates that are themselves estimates drawn from another survey. Given estimates of the variances of these measurement (sampling) errors for each small area, one can account for the uncertainty in such covariates using measurement error models (e.g., Ybarra and Lohr, 2008). Two types of area-level measurement error models have been examined in the small area estimation literature. The functional measurement error model assumes that the underlying true values of the covariates with measurement error are fixed but unknown quantities. The structural measurement error model assumes that these true values follow a model, leading to a multivariate model for the covariates observed with error and the original dependent variable. We compare and contrast these two models with the alternative of simply ignoring measurement error when it is present (naïve model), exploring the consequences for prediction mean squared errors of use of an incorrect model under different underlying assumptions about the true model. Comparisons done using analytic formulas for the mean squared errors assuming model parameters are known yield some surprising results. We also illustrate results with a model fitted to data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates (SAIPE) Program.
Release date: 2019-05-07
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