Modified observed best prediction strategies for small area estimation with unit-level data
Articles and reports: 12-001-X202500200012Description: The observed best prediction (OBP) under a nested-error regression (NER) model was previously proposed using a design-based mean squared prediction error (MSPE) as a tool to derive the best predictive estimator (BPE). A recent study showed the OBP under the NER model may suffer from numerical instability when computing the BPE. We propose several modifications of the OBP under the NER model, including ones using a model-based MSPE to derive the BPE, to improve the numerical stability and predictive performance. We compare the performance of the modified OBP strategies with the existing methods in a simulation study. A real-data example is discussed. Issue Number: 2025002Author(s): Zhang, Jiangshan; Jiang, JimingMain Product:Survey Methodology
