Modelling net undercoverage in the 1991 Canadian census - ARCHIVED

In 1991, Statistics Canada for the first time adjusted the Population Estimates Program for undercoverage in the 1991 Census. The Census coverage studies provided reliable estimates of undercoverage at the provincial level and for national estimates of large age - sex domains. However, the population series required estimates of undercoverage for age - sex domains within each province and territory. Since the direct survey estimates for some of these small domains had large standard errors due to the small sample size in the domain, small area modelling techniques were needed. In order to incorporate the varying degrees of reliability of the direct survey estimates, a regression model utilizing an Empirical Bayes methodology was used to estimate the undercoverage in small domains. A raking ratio procedure was then applied to the undercoverage estimates to preserve consistency with the marginal direct survey estimates. The results of this modelling process are shown along with the estimated reduction in standard errors.