The evaluation of errors in national accounts data: Provisional and revised estimates

This article is a critical review of recent developments in the evaluation of the reliability of provisional national accounts estimates. First, we will sketch a theoretical outline of the process used to produce successive estimates of an aggregate, and will reflect upon its implications regarding the design of the analyses of errors in provisional data. Second, particular attention will be focused upon the choice of elementary measurements of errors and suitable integrative accuracy indices, and the impact of revisions on constant price aggregates and implicit deflationary factors. Finally, the results of some empirical analysis on discordances between provisional and revised estimates will be summarily discussed on the basis of a comparison of national accounts data in Canada, Italy, and the United States.