Monthly Survey of Manufacturing, October 2024
Released: 2024-12-13
Following two consecutive monthly declines, total manufacturing sales rose 2.1% to $70.8 billion in October, mainly on higher sales of petroleum and coal products (+15.9%), followed by transportation equipment (+3.7%). Meanwhile, sales of paper (-3.5%) posted the largest decline. Despite the month-over-month increase in October, sales were down 0.2% on a year-over-year basis.
Sales in constant dollars increased 1.4% in October, while the industrial product price index rose 1.2% and the raw materials price index increased 3.8% during the same period.
Chart 1
Manufacturing sales
Petroleum and coal product subsector leads the increase
Following a 10.6% decrease in September, sales in the petroleum and coal product subsector increased 15.9% to $8.2 billion in October, driven by higher volume sales (+15.5%.). Exports of refined petroleum energy products increased 6.8% in October.
Sales of transportation equipment increased 3.7% to $11.3 billion in October, the largest month-over-month increase since May 2023. Sales of motor vehicles reached their highest level since April 2024, rising 5.5% in October to $4.6 billion, as many auto assembly plants in Ontario posted higher sales. Sales of motor vehicle parts increased 5.3% to $2.9 billion accordingly.
Paper sales decreased 3.5% to $2.6 billion in October, primarily on lower sales in the pulp, paper and paperboard mills industry group. Despite the monthly decline, sales of paper were 0.4% higher on a year-over-year basis in October.
Sales increase in seven provinces
Manufacturing sales increased in seven provinces in October, led by Ontario (+1.6%). Sales in Newfoundland and Labrador (-25.7%) declined the most.
In Ontario, sales rose 1.6% to $30.1 billion in October, following four consecutive monthly declines. The gain was driven by higher sales of petroleum and coal products (+26.6%), motor vehicles (+6.3%) and motor vehicle parts (+5.7%). Sales of fabricated metals (-7.1%) declined the most. Despite the monthly gain, total sales in Ontario were 2.3% lower compared with the same month one year earlier.
Following a 22.4% increase in September, sales in Newfoundland and Labrador decreased 25.7% to $329.0 million in October, primarily due to lower sales of non-durable goods (-32.0%).
Total inventories increase
Total inventory levels increased 0.2% to $119.7 billion in October, on higher goods in process (+0.8%) and finished products (+0.4%). Raw material inventories decreased 0.4% in October. Higher inventories of aerospace product and parts (+2.7%) and petroleum and coal products (+1.9%) were mainly responsible for the increase. The gains were partially offset by lower inventories of machinery (-2.4%) and motor vehicles (-6.6%).
Chart 2
Inventory levels increase in October
The inventory-to-sales ratio fell from 1.72 in September to 1.69 in October. This ratio measures the time, in months, that would be required to exhaust inventories if sales were to remain at their current level.
Chart 3
The inventory-to-sales ratio decreases in October
Unfilled orders edge down
Total unfilled orders edged down 0.2% to $104.6 billion in October, primarily on lower unfilled orders in the motor vehicle industry group (-4.2%) and machinery subsector (-1.2%). Unfilled orders of aerospace products and parts posted the largest increase, rising 0.9% to $48.6 billion in October.
Chart 4
Unfilled orders edge down in October
Capacity utilization rate increases
The capacity utilization rate (not seasonally adjusted) for the total manufacturing sector rose from 78.6% in September to 80.5% in October. Compared with other subsectors, the gain was most noticeable in the petroleum and coal (+3.7 percentage points), chemical product (+5.5 percentage points), primary metal (+4.9 percentage points) and transportation equipment (+1.0 percentage point) subsectors. The increases were partially offset by lower capacity utilization rates in the machinery (-1.9 percentage points) and wood product (-1.0 percentage point) subsectors.
Chart 5
Capacity utilization rate increases in October
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Sustainable development goals
On January 1, 2016, the world officially began implementing the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development—the United Nations' transformative plan of action that addresses urgent global challenges over the following 15 years. The plan is based on 17 specific sustainable development goals.
The Monthly Survey of Manufacturing is an example of how Statistics Canada supports the reporting on the global sustainable development goals. This release will be used to help measure the following goal:
Note to readers
Monthly data in this release are seasonally adjusted and are expressed in current dollars, unless otherwise specified.
Seasonally adjusted data are data that have been modified to eliminate the effect of seasonal and calendar influences to allow for more meaningful comparisons of economic conditions from period to period. For more information on seasonal adjustment, see Seasonally adjusted data – Frequently asked questions.
Trend-cycle estimates are included in selected charts as a complement to the seasonally adjusted series. These data represent a smoothed version of the seasonally adjusted time series and provide information on longer-term movements, including changes in direction underlying the series. For information on trend-cycle data, see Trend-cycle estimates – Frequently asked questions.
Both seasonally adjusted data and trend-cycle estimates are subject to revision as additional observations become available. These revisions could be large and could even lead to a reversal of movement, especially for reference months near the end of the series or during periods of economic disruption.
Non-durable goods industries include food; beverage and tobacco products; textile mills; textile product mills; apparel; leather and allied products; paper; printing and related support activities; petroleum and coal products; chemicals; and plastics and rubber products.
Durable goods industries include wood products; non-metallic mineral products; primary metals; fabricated metal products; machinery; computer and electronic products; electrical equipment, appliances and components; transportation equipment; furniture and related products; and miscellaneous manufacturing.
Production-based industries
For the aerospace and shipbuilding industry groups, the value of production is used instead of the value of sales of goods manufactured. The value of production is calculated by adjusting monthly sales of goods manufactured by the monthly change in inventories of goods in process and finished products manufactured. The value of production is used because of the extended period of time that it normally takes to manufacture products in these industries.
Unfilled orders are a stock of orders that will contribute to future sales, assuming that the orders are not cancelled.
New orders are those received whether sold in the current month or not. New orders are measured as the sum of sales for the current month plus the change in unfilled orders from the previous month to the current month.
Manufacturers reporting sales, inventories and unfilled orders in US dollars
Some Canadian manufacturers report sales, inventories and unfilled orders in US dollars. These data are then converted to Canadian dollars as part of the data production cycle.
For sales, based on the assumption that they occur throughout the month, the average monthly exchange rate for the reference month established by the Bank of Canada is used for the conversion. The monthly average exchange rate is available in table 33-10-0163-01. Inventories and unfilled orders are reported at the end of the reference period. For most respondents, the daily average exchange rate on the last working day of the month is used for the conversion of these variables.
However, some manufacturers choose to report their data as of a day other than the last working day of the month. In these instances, the daily average exchange rate on the day selected by the respondent is used. Note that because of exchange rate fluctuations, the daily average exchange rate on the day selected by the respondent can differ from both the exchange rate on the last working day of the month and the monthly average exchange rate. Daily average exchange rate data are available in table 33-10-0036-01.
Revision policy
Each month, the Monthly Survey of Manufacturing releases preliminary data for the reference month and revised data for the previous three months. Revisions are made to reflect new information provided by respondents and updates to administrative data.
Once a year, a revision project is undertaken to revise multiple years of data.
Real-time data tables
Real-time data tables 16-10-0118-01, 16-10-0119-01, 16-10-0014-01 and 16-10-0015-01 will be updated on December 20.
Next release
Data from the Monthly Survey of Manufacturing for November 2024 will be released on January 15, 2025.
Contact information
For more information, or to enquire about the concepts, methods or data quality of this release, contact us (toll-free 1-800-263-1136; 514-283-8300; infostats@statcan.gc.ca) or Media Relations (statcan.mediahotline-ligneinfomedias.statcan@statcan.gc.ca).
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