7 Conclusions

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The objective of this paper is to shed light on the origins of the strong positive relationship between city size and the incidence of degree holders. This gradient must be due to (1) different rates of degree attainment across the urban-rural spectrum and/or (2) the accumulation of degree holders in larger urban areas through net migration, be it internal or international. Although the variation in the incidence of degree holders reflects a stock of degree holders that has been built up over a long period of time, it is possible to draw some inference about the origins of these differences by observing flows of degree holders, in this case, over a period of five years.

Perhaps the most striking finding of this paper is that rates of degree attainment increase with city size. First, there is a clear gradient in degree attainment across the urban-rural hierarchy. The proportion of the population that spent at least the latter part of their formative years in a large urban area and obtained a degree is almost twice that of rural parts of Canada. This provides strong evidence that a large part of the reason for the strong positive association between city size and the share of their populations with degrees is that large cities generate degree holders at a greater rate than do smaller cities and rural parts of Canada. The effect of internal and international migration is to reinforce this pattern.

The relative roles of internal and international migratory flows depend on location along the urban-rural spectrum. For large urban areas, net migratory flows from other parts of Canada play a relatively small role. Moreover, we likely overestimate these net flows because of students who grew up in these larger centres returning home after having attended university elsewhere. Hence, unless mobility patterns have changed dramatically over the past 40 years, it is unlikely that the high share of degree holders in large urban centres can be attributed to net internal migration.

Immigration was most important in large urban centres, given the tendency for immigrants to concentrate in a few large cities. Reflective of the emphasis on highly educated and skilled immigrants since the 1990s, net immigration accounts for, on average, 42% of the growth of degree holders. Outside of these large urban centres, immigration contributed far less to human capital change, amounting to 19% in medium urban centers, 8% in small urban centres and just 4% in rural areas.

Outside oflarge urban centres, internal migration plays a much more significant role. All urban- rural classes lose degree holders to large urban centres. From the perspective of these small urban and rural areas, these are relatively large flows that substantially reduce the number of degree holders, particularly among the young. This pattern tends to reinforce the effect oflow in situ rates of growth of degree holders in these places. Yet the impact of these outward flows should be seen as an absolute maximum. Some of these outward flows are made up of degree holders that undoubtedly left large urban centres to obtain their degrees in smaller centres and are merely returning home.

This evidence leads us to conclude that if we are to understand the uneven distribution of human capital, as measured by degree holders in this instance, we have to understand why degree holders choose to move to large urban centres but, perhaps more importantly, why those who grow up in larger urban areas are more likely to seek postsecondary education. The first question turns on why large urban centres are more attractive places to work and live in for those with higher levels of human capital. The latter question speaks more to why the motivations and incentives to invest in human capital are different for those that spent their formative years in larger cities. The implication is that human capital may be endogenous to cities and, to the extent that human capital drives economic growth and development, the role of cities as drivers of economic growth looms ever larger.