Immigration and Diversity: Population Projections for Canada and its Regions, 2011 to 2036 Immigration and Diversity: Population Projections for Canada and its Regions, 2011 to 2036

Acknowledgments

This report represents the work of the Demosim team, under the direction of Éric Caron-Malenfant. The following people are or were part of the Demosim team when these projections were developed: Éric Caron-Malenfant, Jonathan Chagnon, Simon Coulombe, Patrice Dion, Harry François, Nora Galbraith, Mark Knarr, Stéphanie Langlois, Samuel MacIsaac, Laurent Martel and Jean‑Dominique Morency of the Demography Division; Melanie Abeysundera, Dominic Grenier, Chantal Grondin and Soumaya Moussa of the Social Survey Methods Division; Karla Fox of the Statistical Research and Innovation Division; Martin Spielauer of the Social Analysis and Modelling Division; Jean-Pierre Corbeil and René Houle of the Social and Aboriginal Statistics Division.

These projections were developed thanks to the financial support of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC). Representatives of that department also contributed to the development of these projections, including the assumptions and scenarios used, through an interdepartmental working group and an interdepartmental steering committee.

We would also like to highlight the contribution of Demosim’s scientific committee. The committee, chaired by Michael Wolfson (University of Ottawa), is composed of Stewart Clatworthy (Four Directions Project Consultants), David Coleman (Oxford University), Eric Guimond (INAC), Peter Hicks (consultant), Jack Jedwab (Association for Canadian Studies), Don Kerr (University of Western Ontario) and Réjean Lachapelle (consultant).

A number of other people were involved in the production of this report, either directly or indirectly, by participating in reviewing the preliminary versions or helping to prepare data. These people are Daniel Bannatyne, Carol D’Aoust, Johanne Denis, Marc Lachance and André Lebel.

Highlights

Immigrant and second-generation populations

• Based on the projection scenarios used, immigrants would represent between 24.5% and 30.0% of Canada’s population in 2036, compared with 20.7% in 2011. These would be the highest proportions since 1871.
• In 2036, between 55.7% and 57.9% of Canada’s immigrant population could have been born in Asia, up from 44.8% estimated in 2011, while between 15.4% and 17.8% could have been born in Europe, down from 31.6% in 2011.
• The proportion of the second-generation population, i.e., non‑immigrants with at least one parent born abroad, within the total Canadian population would also increase. In 2036, nearly one in five people would be of second generation, compared with 17.5% in 2011.
• Together, immigrants and second-generation individuals could represent nearly one person in two (between 44.2% and 49.7%) in 2036, up from 2011 (38.2%).

Languages

• According to all scenarios used for these projections, the population whose mother tongue is neither English nor French would be up and could account for between 26.1% and 30.6% of Canada’s population in 2036, versus 20.0% in 2011.
• As in 2011, immigrants would make up the majority—close to 70% in all scenarios—of the population whose mother tongue is neither English nor French. However, close to 40% of these other-mother-tongue immigrants would have adopted English or French as the language spoken most often at home, either alone or with other languages.

Visible minority status

• According to the results of these projections, in 2036, among the working-age population (15 to 64 years), of special interest for the application of the Employment Equity Act, between 34.7% and 39.9% could belong to a visible minority group, compared with 19.6% in 2011.
• In all the projection scenarios, South Asian would still be the main visible minority group in 2036, followed by the Chinese. However, the most rapidly growing groups would be the Arab, Filipino and West Asian groups, given that they represent a higher proportion in the immigrant population than in the population as a whole.

Religion

• The proportion of people who report having no religion in the total population would continue to increase, and could represent between 28.2% and 34.6% in 2036 (compared with 24.0% in 2011). This proportion would be similar to Catholics (between 29.2% and 32.8% in 2036, down from 2011 [38.8%]). In 2036, Catholicism would remain the religion with the largest number of followers.
• The number of people affiliated with non-Christian religions could almost double by 2036 and could represent between 13% and 16% of Canada’s population, compared with 9% in 2011. The Muslim, Hindu and Sikh faiths, which are over-represented among immigrants compared to their demographic weight in the population as a whole, would see the number of their followers grow more quickly, even if it would continue to represent a modest share of the total Canadian population.

Regional analysis

• The results of the different scenarios show that in all provinces and territories, the number and the proportion of immigrants in the population would increase between 2011 and 2036.
• Based on all the projection scenarios, the geographic distribution of immigrants among the various regions in 2036 would be similar to the estimate in 2011. The vast majority (between 91.7% and 93.4%) would continue to live in a census metropolitan area (CMA). The three primary areas of residence for immigrants would remain Toronto (between 33.6% and 39.1%), Montréal (between 13.9% and 14.6%) and Vancouver (between 12.4% and 13.1%).
• According to all the scenarios for these projections, more than one in two people in 2036 would be an immigrant or the child of an immigrant in Toronto (between 77.0% and 81.4%), Vancouver (between 69.4% and 74.0%), Calgary (between 56.2% and 63.3%) and Abbotsford – Mission (between 52.5% and 57.4%). In 2011, the corresponding proportions were 74.1% in Toronto, 65.6% in Vancouver, 48.0% in Calgary and 49.7% in Abbotsford – Mission.
• The results of the projections show that the proportion of the working-age population (aged 15 to 64) who belong to a visible minority group would increase in all areas of the country, in all the scenarios. This proportion would surpass 40% in Toronto, Vancouver, Edmonton, Calgary, Winnipeg and Abbotsford – Mission. It would remain lower in non-metropolitan areas.
• The results of the projections indicate that religious diversity would be up in all areas considered by 2036. The increase would be more substantial in areas that were the most homogeneous in 2011, i.e., Quebec (excluding Montréal) and in the Atlantic provinces, primarily because of the rise in the proportion of people who reported having no religion.
• The most religiously diverse areas in 2011 would remain as such in 2036. Among them, Toronto, Vancouver, Calgary and Edmonton, which had a large proportion of immigrants among their population in 2011, would continue to be diverse, in particular as a result of the increase in the proportion of persons reporting a non-Christian religion.

Introduction

Canada’s population has long included a large proportion of immigrants. Since Canadian Confederation in 1867, the proportion of immigrants has never fallen below 13% (Statistics Canada 2010). This proportion has been continually rising over the past 30 years, to 20.7% in 2011.

This recent period was characterized by sustained immigration, increased diversification of the birthplaces of immigrants and immigrant selection intended to meet economic needs and, to a lesser extent, to promote family reunification and welcome vulnerable people (refugees). During this period, the vast majority of immigrants who settled in Canada were from Asia, with China, India and the Philippines being the main source countries (Chagnon 2013). In comparison, before the 1970s, immigrants who settled in Canada were mostly from Europe and the United States (Houle et al. 2016; Statistics Canada 2013a; McInnis 2000). As a result, the massive influx of immigrants from new immigration source countries during this 30-year period, combined with their Canadian-born progeny, transformed Canada’s ethnocultural portrait in a lasting way.

According to Coleman (2006), Canada was similar to a number of European countries, in that it began a third demographic transition in the early 1970s. Coleman (2006) noted that, in countries with high immigration and low fertility, the ethnocultural portrait of the population is destined to change substantially and permanently. Canada today is characterized by this dynamic, in which low fertility and high immigration lead to greater ethnocultural diversity within the population. As evidence of this assertion, international migratory increase surpassed natural increase in Canada in the late 1990s (Statistics Canada 2008), and international migratory increase is projected to remain the main component of this increase in the future (Statistics Canada 2014a).

In the context of these changes and their various potential public policy implications, Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) asked Statistics Canada to prepare new projections of the ethnocultural composition of Canada’s population over the next 25 years. These new projections, which take into account the most recent demographic trends and data as well as the new methodological features and projected characteristics integrated into the Demosim projection model (see Caron-Malenfant [2015] for more information), are both an update and an extension of the projections published in 2010 (Statistics Canada 2010).

The main objective of these projections is to assess the sensitivity of ethnocultural diversity trends over the next 25 years to certain key aspects of immigration, such as the number of new immigrants, their geographic distribution and their origin. In addition, emphasis will be placed on how these key aspects of immigration could affect the future ethnocultural diversity of various regions of Canada.

This report consists of two main sections. The first section sets out the assumptions and scenarios chosen for this projection exercise. The second presents the key projection results in two parts: (1) an overall portrait; and (2) an analysis in the form of brief portraits of the provinces and a selection of regions (Montréal, Toronto, Vancouver and a region combining the three territories). Each portrait includes a table and one or more figures that summarize the main projection results at the regional level.  Readers and data users can refer to the tables in the appendix for more detailed results. Finally, a glossary with definitions of the more specialized terms is provided at the end of this report.

The methodological complement to this report gives an overview of the projection model, the base population, data sources and methods used. Readers interested in the methodology behind the projections are invited to consult the publication Demosim: An Overview of Methods and Data Sources, Demosim 2017 (Statistics Canada 2017a).

For more information about the other projected dimensions of the composition of the Canadian population, please consult the other two analytical reports from this Demosim projection cycle: Projections of the Aboriginal Population and Households in Canada, 2011 to 2036 (Statistics Canada 2015) and Language Projections for Canada, 2011 to 2036 (Statistics Canada 2017b).

Base population and projection model

The starting point for this projection exercise is May 10, 2011, the reference date of the 2011 Canadian Census of Population and the National Household Survey (NHS), which were conducted simultaneously. The base population was developed from the 2011 NHS microdata file. To ensure that the data would best represent Canada’s population on the NHS reference date, they were adjusted to take into account the institutional population, net census undercoverage and the population living on incompletely enumerated Indian settlements or reserves. In addition to the variables in the NHS, other variables were added to the base population through data linkage, such as immigrant admission category (economic immigrant, family reunification, refugees and other immigrants) for those who have been admitted since 1980. Following these adjustments, the Demosim base population contained close to 7.3 million records representing 34,273,000 people.

The projection results presented in this report were produced using the Demosim microsimulation projection model. In addition to the characteristics found in the usual projections developed using the cohort-component method (age, sex and place of residence), this model can be used to project many other characteristics of Canada’s population, particularly ethnocultural characteristics such as country of birth, generation status, visible minority group, religion and mother tongue. Demosim can also produce results at detailed geographic levels. These projections were developed at the CMA level. Many products have been developed using the Demosim model, including Projections of the Diversity of the Canadian Population, 2006 to 2031 (Statistics Canada 2010), Population Projections by Aboriginal Identity in Canada, 2006 to 2031 (Statistics Canada 2011) and, more recently, Projections of the Aboriginal Population and Households in Canada, 2011 to 2036 (Statistics Canada 2015).

To update the projected population characteristics during simulation, Demosim models a number of both demographic and non-demographic events. Demographic events include fertility, mortality and internal and international migration. Other events include intergenerational “transmission” of language, visible minority status and religion, as well as changes that may arise during a person’s life with regard, for example, to language spoken most often at home, self-reported religion and education.

The complete list of events modelled by Demosim as well as the data sources and methods that made up the projection model are described in a separate document (Box 1).

Assumptions and scenarios

Assumptions

As with every demographic projection exercise, assumptions on future trends needed to be developed for each demographic component. The assumptions for this projection exercise were chosen to meet two specific objectives: 1) to estimate the sensitivity of certain measures of ethnocultural diversity in Canada to specific aspects of immigration and other demographic and non-demographic components, and 2) to provide a plausible range of demographic trends for specific subpopulations (by visible minority group, religion, country of birth, etc.).

The assumptions were chosen by Statistics Canada in consultation with the IRCC. They were also submitted to the Advisory Committee on^{Note 1} Demographic Statistics and Studies, a committee of independent researchers and experts that gave some recommendations. The Demosim scientific committee also made recommendations on the choice of some assumptions.

To get the most out of existing analyses, several assumptions selected were inspired by previous projection exercises. Therefore, it was possible to draw on the analysis and consultation work done during preparation of the publication Population Projections for Canada (2013 to 2063), Provinces and Territories (2013 to 2038) (Statistics Canada 2014a), especially the assumptions relating to the key demographic components: fertility, mortality, emigration, immigration and non-permanent residents. More information about the reasons behind the selection of these assumptions can be found in the technical report for this projection exercise, Population Projections for Canada (2013 to 2063), Provinces and Territories (2013 to 2038): Technical Report on Methodology and Assumptions (Statistics Canada 2014b), which will be referred to extensively in this report. In addition, some assumptions used for the Projections of the Aboriginal Population and Households in Canada, 2011 to 2036 (Statistics Canada 2015), particularly those relating to Aboriginal populations, have been reproduced here in full.

The choice of assumptions was related to the methods used to model the different components projected. Readers will find additional information in the methodological report of these projections (Statistics Canada 2017a).

The next section presents the assumptions selected with regard to immigration, emigration, non‑permanent residents, internal migration, fertility, the attribution of characteristics to newborns, mortality, language changes and intragenerational religious mobility^{Note 2} (Table 1).

Immigration

An analysis of recent immigration data shows that over the past 20 years, there have been many changes in the number of immigrants that Canada admits annually, in the composition of immigration by country of birth and where immigrants settle upon their arrival (Chagnon 2013). Given the fluctuations over time in each of these three dimensions of immigration—and therefore the uncertainty associated with them—more than one assumption was developed for each.

Annual number of immigrants

For the period from May 2011 to June 2016, the annual number of immigrants added to Canada’s population during the projection is based simply on the estimated numbers from the Demographic Estimates Program (DEP), which uses IRCC data. Starting in July 2016, three different assumptions have been used: low, medium and high immigration.

For the low-immigration assumption, the number of immigrants in 2016 corresponds to the lower limit of the range of the IRCC’s 2016 immigration plan (the most recent plan available when the report was prepared),^{Note 3Note 4} or 280,000 immigrants, representing an immigration rate of 8.0 immigrants per 1,000 population.^{Note 5} Starting in 2017, the low assumption involves a progressive decrease in the immigration rate to 5.0 immigrants per 1,000 population in 2022, which is held constant thereafter. This assumption is similar to the one used in Population Projections for Canada (2013 to 2063), Provinces and Territories (2013 to 2038) (Statistics Canada 2014a).^{Note 6}

The medium and high assumptions were developed in a similar fashion. In 2016, the number of immigrants corresponds to the target number of immigrants in the 2016 immigration plan (300,000 immigrants, or a rate of 8.3 per 1,000 population) for the medium assumption and to the upper limit of the plan (305,000 immigrants, or a rate of 8.4 per 1,000 population) for the high assumption. Under the medium assumption, the rate is then held constant until the end of the projection, while under the high assumption, it progressively increases to 10.0 immigrants per 1,000 population by 2022 and subsequently remains constant.

The medium and high assumptions for this projection both involve slightly higher immigration rates than those used in Population Projections for Canada (2013 to 2063), Provinces and Territories (2013 to 2038) (Statistics Canada 2014a).^{Note 7} Since those projections were published, we have witnessed two consecutive years of increases in the federal government’s immigration targets following several years of stability.^{Note 8} The immigration rates selected for these two assumptions remain comparable to the average rates provided by the demographers who responded to the Opinion Survey on Future Demographic Trends.^{Note 9}

Geographic distribution of immigrants upon arrival in Canada

Three assumptions on the geographic distribution of immigrants upon their arrival in Canada were also selected. These assumptions reflect the settlement patterns of immigrants that were observed during the following three periods: 1) July 2000 to June 2005, 2) July 2005 to June 2010 and 3) July 2010 to June 2015 (Figure 1).

Description for Figure 1

Data table for figure 1
Provincial and territorial distribution of immigrants for three immigration periods (July to June), Canada, 2000 to 2015
Table summary
This table displays the results of Provincial and territorial distribution of immigrants for three immigration periods (July to June). The information is grouped by Region (appearing as row headers), 2000 to 2005, 2005 to 2010 and 2010 to 2015, calculated using percent units of measure (appearing as column headers).

Region	2000 to 2005	2005 to 2010	2010 to 2015
	percent
N.L.	0.2	0.2	0.3
P.E.I.	0.1	0.5	0.6
N.S.	0.7	1	1
N.B.	0.3	0.7	0.9
Que.	16.7	18.4	20.2
Ont.	56.1	46.6	39
Man.	2.5	4.6	5.7
Sask.	0.8	1.8	4.1
Alta.	6.8	9.4	14.2
B.C.	15.7	16.8	13.9
Territories	0.1	0.1	0.2
Source: Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada.

Between 2000 and 2005, the distribution of immigrants upon arrival was particularly favourable to Ontario and British Columbia, but less so to Quebec and the Prairie provinces. In contrast, between 2010 and 2015, Ontario received proportionally far fewer immigrants than in the past, while Quebec and the Prairie provinces received more. As for 2005 to 2010, the provincial distribution represents a middle ground between the distributions estimated during the other two periods^{Note 10} for most provinces and territories.

For 2016, an adjustment is made so that the share of immigrants received by Quebec corresponds to the share in the immigration plans of IRCC and Quebec’s Ministère de l’Immigration, de la Diversité et de l’Inclusion (MIDI).^{Note 11}  In all cases, the proportion of immigrants received by Quebec in 2016 is lower than the proportion estimated for the three periods covered by the assumptions.

For the assumption that reflects the immigrant settlement patterns estimated during the period from July 2010 to June 2015, the adjustment for Quebec for 2016 is maintained until the end of the projection period, whereas in the other two assumptions, this adjustment is made only for 2016.

Composition of immigration by country of birth^{Note 12}

Two assumptions, each established at the province and territory level, on the composition of immigration by country of birth were selected. The first assumption is based on the composition of the cohorts of immigrants admitted to Canada between July 2010 and June 2015. Overall, the five most significant source countries during this period were, in order, the Philippines (14.6% of all immigrants admitted to Canada), India (12.8%), China (11.3%), Iran (4.3%) and Pakistan (3.8%).

The second assumption is based on the period from July 2005 to June 2010. Under this assumption, China (13.0%) is the main source country for immigration to Canada, with a rate 1.7 percentage points higher than in the first assumption. The share of immigrants from India (12.4%), and from the Philippines in particular (9.5%), are lower under this assumption. Lastly, also in this assumption, Pakistan (3.8%) and the United States (3.4%) are ranked fourth and fifth among countries that contribute the most to immigration to Canada.

Emigration

Emigration is a demographic phenomenon that is difficult to estimate in Canada, in particular because people leaving the country have no legal obligation to report their departure. Nonetheless, we know that the number of emigrants is well below the number of immigrants. For example, between July 2015 and June 2016, a total of 321,000 immigrants settled in Canada, while the number of people who left the country was estimated at 64,000.^{Note 13}

Three assumptions, largely inspired by those used in the publication Population Projections for Canada (2013 to 2063), Provinces and Territories (2013 to 2038) (Statistics Canada 2014a) were adopted to account for the inherent uncertainty of future emigration levels.^{Note 14Note 15}Under the medium assumption, the risks of emigrating are in line with the average rates estimated by the Demographic Estimates Program (DEP) for the period from 2002/2003 to 2011/2012, and adjusted to account for some underestimation of the average rates in Ontario and British Columbia, in accordance with the method detailed in Bohnert et al. (2014). In this assumption, Canada’s emigration rate is approximately 1.8 emigrants per 1,000 population^{Note 16}. The low and high assumptions differ from the medium assumption only for the populations living in Ontario and British Columbia, in accordance with the emigration assumptions used in Population Projections for Canada (2013 to 2063), Provinces and Territories (2013 to 2038) (Statistics Canada 2014a).^{Note 17} Overall, the low assumption corresponds to an emigration rate of approximately 1.5 per 1,000 population and the high assumption to a rate of 2.0 per 1,000 population during the projection. Rates are held constant throughout the projection.

These assumptions of emigration levels all comprise the same assumption on the composition of emigration according to various characteristics, which is based on estimates from 1995 to 2010 calculated from a linkage of data from the Longitudinal Administrative Database (LAD) and immigration data. Analysis of these data shows that the characteristics of emigrants have remained stable over time. That is why only one assumption^{Note 18} is proposed, suggesting a continuity in the differential emigration estimated from 1995 to 2010 into the future. According to this assumption, immigrants who have been in Canada for 15 years or less are more likely to emigrate than the rest of the population, with the exception of immigrants who arrived less than three years earlier and whose birthplace is not Western or Northern Europe, North America or Eastern Asia.

Net non-permanent residents

As with immigration and emigration, three assumptions were selected for future trends regarding net non-permanent residents.^{Note 19} These assumptions are largely consistent with those in the publication Population Projections for Canada (2013 to 2063), Provinces and Territories (2013 to 2038).

The annual number of net non-permanent residents in a given province or territory published by the DEP between May 2011 and June 2016 is used for all three assumptions.^{Note 20} Therefore, the three assumptions do not diverge until July 2016. For the low assumption, the net non-permanent residents is assumed to be nil for the rest of the projection. The medium and high assumptions both propose a progressive decrease in the net non-permanent residents to zero, in July 2021 for the medium assumption and in July 2031 for the high assumption.

The provincial/territorial distributions of net non-permanent residents are different under the medium and high assumptions. They are based on the ones used in the medium and high assumptions found in the publication Population Projections for Canada (2013 to 2063), Provinces and Territories (2013 to 2038) (Statistics Canada 2014a).^{Note 21}

Internal migration

Migration between the different parts of Canada has always been one of the most unstable components over time (Willbond 2014). Given that internal migration flows are particularly sensitive to various social and economic factors, they naturally change considerably and are difficult to project (Smith 1986). This component is the main factor behind the increase in certain parts of the country (Dion and Coulombe 2008). The uncertainty surrounding the future course of this component, combined with the importance it represents from a demographic standpoint, requires special attention. For this reason, four separate assumptions were selected for internal migration.

The first assumption is similar to the one used in the publication Projections of the Aboriginal Population and Households in Canada, 2011 to 2036 (Statistics Canada 2015). In this assumption, the contribution of internal migration to population growth in the different parts of the country is a reflection of what was observed on average during the 1996-to-2001, 2001-to-2006 and 2006-to-2011 periods. The other three assumptions differ in that the contribution of migration to the increase in particular parts of the country is not based on the average of the three periods, but on only one of them: 2006 to 2011 for the second assumption, 2001 to 2006 for the third, and 1996 to 2001 for the fourth.

Only one assumption was selected for the composition of migration flows. It is similar to the one used in the publication Projections of the Aboriginal Population and Households in Canada, 2011 to 2036 (Statistics Canada 2015).^{Note 22} It is consistent with the average composition of migration observed during the combined periods 2000/2001, 2005/2006 and 2010/2011.^{Note 23} Analysis of the data from the 2001 and 2006 censuses and the 2011 NHS shows that the composition of migration flows changes little over time.

This analysis shows that, in general, well-educated people, young adults between the ages of 15 and 34 and people without children are more likely to migrate than the rest of the population when several characteristics such as immigrant status, time elapsed since immigration, generation status and knowledge of official languages are controlled.^{Note 24} It also shows that immigrants, and in particular those who arrived recently in Canada, migrate more than non-immigrants. Moreover, the internal migration patterns of immigrants differ from those of non-immigrants. For example, immigrants are less likely to move to a non-metropolitan area (Figures 2a and 2b). The data also reveal that people who belong to a visible minority are less likely to migrate than the rest of the population, while people who know both English and French are more likely to migrate when the above variables are controlled. These results may naturally differ from one part of the country to the next (Dion and Coulombe 2008).

Description for Figure 2a

Data table for figure 2a
Interregional migration flows, immigrants, total for the 1996-to-2001, 2001-to-2006 and 2006-to-2011 periods, Canada
Part 1
Table summary
This table displays the results of Interregional migration flows. The information is grouped by Region (appearing as row headers), Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and Quebec, St-John's, Rest of Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island, Halifax, Rest of Nova Scotia, Moncton, Saint John, Rest of New Brunswick, Saguenay, Québec, Sherbrooke, Trois-Rivières, Montréal, Ottawa - Gatineau (Quebec part) and Rest of Quebec, calculated using number units of measure (appearing as column headers).

Region	Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and Quebec
	St-John's	Rest of Newfoundland and Labrador	Prince Edward Island	Halifax	Rest of Nova Scotia	Moncton	Saint John	Rest of New Brunswick	Saguenay	Québec	Sherbrooke	Trois-Rivières	Montréal	Ottawa - Gatineau (Quebec part)	Rest of Quebec
	number
St-John's	-	105	10	110	25	15	25	35	0	10	15	0	85	10	0
Rest of Newfoundland and Labrador	330	-	40	135	65	0	0	30	0	0	0	0	60	0	10
Prince Edward Island	20	10	-	100	60	25	15	45	0	0	0	0	15	45	10
Halifax	50	65	85	-	760	60	60	130	0	40	0	0	370	35	20
Rest of Nova Scotia	30	85	65	1,105	-	35	25	75	0	0	0	0	105	10	50
Moncton	20	0	10	85	40	-	20	245	10	10	25	20	225	15	20
Saint John	35	40	40	80	25	50	-	170	0	0	10	0	35	0	0
Rest of New Brunswick	10	35	40	250	130	285	250	-	0	80	0	0	415	20	20
Saguenay	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	-	80	40	10	310	60	160
Québec	10	10	0	25	0	25	25	130	80	-	110	125	3,075	510	1,310
Sherbrooke	0	0	0	0	0	25	0	10	0	165	-	15	1,790	180	450
Trois-Rivières	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	130	30	-	790	60	335
Montréal	35	10	65	365	100	145	75	210	155	2,115	1,005	360	-	2,265	8,425
Ottawa - Gatineau (Quebec part)	10	10	0	50	0	0	0	15	0	90	20	10	905	-	230
Rest of Quebec	15	10	15	10	35	15	10	35	65	1,165	585	250	6,865	390	-
Ottawa - Gatineau (Ontario part)	50	10	30	380	215	80	40	125	15	165	65	10	2,310	3,550	175
Kingston	75	0	0	85	35	10	20	70	0	25	0	0	220	15	20
Peterborough	0	30	0	0	30	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	35	0	0
Oshawa	10	10	25	15	30	0	10	25	0	0	0	0	60	0	40
Toronto	225	225	195	1,170	645	150	85	445	0	120	40	25	6,400	300	300
Hamilton	35	30	30	120	90	20	10	75	0	15	10	0	400	30	45
St. Catharines - Niagara	10	10	10	50	30	0	10	20	0	10	0	0	175	25	0
Kitchener - Cambridge - Waterloo	30	0	0	80	90	10	25	35	0	0	0	10	300	45	15
Brantford	15	0	10	0	10	10	0	10	10	0	0	0	30	0	10
Guelph	0	0	35	30	35	0	20	10	0	0	0	0	65	0	0
London	10	0	10	135	10	10	15	50	0	10	0	0	355	15	0
Windsor	0	0	0	20	10	0	10	0	0	10	0	0	220	40	0
Barrie	10	0	10	0	20	0	10	50	0	10	0	0	45	10	15
Greater Sudbury	10	0	10	10	10	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	40	45	10
Thunder Bay	0	0	10	0	20	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10	0
Rest of Ontario	15	60	75	140	215	20	85	225	15	25	0	0	730	140	175
Winnipeg	35	25	45	110	75	10	10	25	20	20	35	0	410	145	0
Rest of Manitoba	0	15	20	20	45	0	0	45	0	0	0	0	40	0	10
Regina	0	0	0	15	0	10	0	10	0	10	0	0	40	0	0
Saskatoon	10	0	15	20	65	0	0	35	0	0	0	0	155	10	10
Rest of Saskatchewan	0	0	0	15	35	0	0	20	0	0	0	0	65	0	20
Calgary	75	35	75	280	195	35	55	110	0	15	0	0	735	55	10
Edmonton	60	0	50	185	125	15	15	50	0	15	35	0	515	55	25
Rest of Alberta	25	85	55	95	110	0	15	50	10	15	0	0	150	40	35
Kelowna	0	10	10	0	10	0	0	20	0	0	0	0	40	0	15
Vancouver	60	30	20	375	150	15	50	145	0	25	20	0	2,890	45	60
Victoria	20	10	0	65	60	0	35	15	0	0	0	10	175	10	40
Abbotsford - Mission	0	0	0	10	15	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	40	0	0
Rest of British Columbia	50	10	75	115	260	35	25	95	0	30	0	0	215	10	90
Territories	0	20	0	25	45	15	0	40	0	0	0	0	45	0	10
Sources: Statistics Canada, 2001 and 2006 censuses (adjusted) and 2011 National Household Survey (adjusted).

Data table for figure 2a
Interregional migration flows, immigrants, total for the 1996-to-2001, 2001-to-2006 and 2006-to-2011 periods, Canada
Part 2
Table summary
This table displays the results of Interregional migration flows. The information is grouped by Region (appearing as row headers), Ontario, Ottawa - Gatineau (Ontario part), Kingston, Peterborough, Oshawa, Toronto, Hamilton, St. Catharines - Niagara, Kitchener - Cambridge - Waterloo, Brantford, Guelph, London, Windsor, Barrie, Greater Sudbury, Thunder Bay and Rest of Ontario, calculated using number units of measure (appearing as column headers).

Region	Ontario
	Ottawa - Gatineau (Ontario part)	Kingston	Peterborough	Oshawa	Toronto	Hamilton	St. Catharines - Niagara	Kitchener - Cambridge - Waterloo	Brantford	Guelph	London	Windsor	Barrie	Greater Sudbury	Thunder Bay	Rest of Ontario
	number
St-John's	120	15	0	15	360	30	40	45	10	0	10	0	0	10	0	65
Rest of Newfoundland and Labrador	130	0	0	10	210	10	20	35	0	20	0	0	0	0	0	110
Prince Edward Island	65	0	0	0	240	20	0	65	10	0	45	100	15	0	0	85
Halifax	635	75	10	55	1,855	205	25	125	0	40	70	120	55	0	10	205
Rest of Nova Scotia	165	40	0	70	495	50	25	30	0	50	95	40	25	30	25	390
Moncton	75	0	0	10	210	25	20	15	0	0	0	0	10	0	0	55
Saint John	75	10	20	0	255	0	35	10	0	10	15	40	15	0	0	55
Rest of New Brunswick	260	60	55	40	585	70	25	75	0	0	45	25	25	20	0	270
Saguenay	0	10	0	0	10	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	25
Québec	250	30	10	45	435	90	0	45	0	0	20	35	10	0	0	100
Sherbrooke	115	0	0	10	320	85	60	25	0	50	20	10	0	0	0	35
Trois-Rivières	15	0	0	0	25	15	15	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	65
Montréal	4,955	400	80	290	15,585	965	160	655	120	205	485	500	160	110	40	1,750
Ottawa - Gatineau (Quebec part)	2,225	10	0	10	175	10	20	25	55	0	40	0	0	0	0	170
Rest of Quebec	235	25	10	10	360	80	30	80	0	10	40	10	55	30	0	215
Ottawa - Gatineau (Ontario part)	-	390	55	230	8,550	810	195	745	40	100	375	310	110	105	105	3,170
Kingston	855	-	30	95	2,105	230	60	130	10	40	105	15	55	15	35	845
Peterborough	130	50	-	400	1,145	30	30	35	10	70	40	0	30	0	10	625
Oshawa	245	35	310	-	6,215	235	135	205	70	50	130	50	125	20	0	1,775
Toronto	8,065	1,470	1,335	15,600	-	17,700	4,580	10,225	1,030	3,410	4,665	3,355	7,435	545	355	20,985
Hamilton	670	160	55	240	14,060	-	1,585	1,020	725	360	525	360	245	45	25	3,270
St. Catharines - Niagara	360	65	25	90	4,190	1,525	-	375	80	235	190	135	75	45	25	830
Kitchener - Cambridge - Waterloo	500	125	55	210	7,465	985	175	-	450	940	590	305	45	40	25	2,800
Brantford	30	0	0	35	650	650	50	265	-	75	95	40	10	10	0	630
Guelph	250	30	0	10	2,475	435	75	1,170	60	-	115	30	20	25	20	1,090
London	615	85	30	125	6,485	820	125	820	95	305	-	475	100	50	20	2,895
Windsor	445	30	15	75	3,970	410	105	525	10	130	675	-	25	15	10	1,370
Barrie	100	60	15	155	2,550	190	100	85	70	50	130	50	-	10	0	1,515
Greater Sudbury	210	25	15	30	825	90	100	115	0	10	20	20	65	-	0	465
Thunder Bay	70	115	10	15	330	25	30	25	0	10	10	20	35	15	-	235
Rest of Ontario	2,835	975	665	1,330	10,920	2,120	940	2,245	745	760	3,400	1,890	1,345	485	455	-
Winnipeg	635	55	0	95	2,725	155	215	280	10	30	215	45	25	25	30	355
Rest of Manitoba	85	25	0	10	455	20	15	35	0	0	100	0	75	20	30	355
Regina	100	20	0	10	360	110	30	85	0	0	25	40	0	0	0	35
Saskatoon	195	25	0	15	455	40	35	45	15	30	100	50	0	0	30	30
Rest of Saskatchewan	60	0	0	35	235	50	15	65	30	0	30	20	10	20	0	170
Calgary	650	75	25	105	3,720	285	135	350	20	35	250	235	30	30	85	455
Edmonton	660	125	0	50	2,230	185	105	195	20	70	225	100	35	0	20	315
Rest of Alberta	180	40	65	35	580	50	30	120	0	0	115	65	10	15	25	525
Kelowna	20	0	0	10	70	20	15	0	0	0	15	10	0	10	0	40
Vancouver	1,835	370	30	170	11,605	545	185	750	10	170	385	325	85	40	120	725
Victoria	325	20	10	65	685	40	85	140	10	0	25	0	30	0	15	155
Abbotsford - Mission	20	15	0	0	340	25	30	30	10	0	0	10	10	0	0	55
Rest of British Columbia	370	80	20	15	575	70	125	65	20	30	150	60	55	0	75	535
Territories	150	0	0	10	140	10	25	35	0	0	25	10	20	0	10	110
Sources: Statistics Canada, 2001 and 2006 censuses (adjusted) and 2011 National Household Survey (adjusted).

Data table for figure 2a
Interregional migration flows, immigrants, total for the 1996-to-2001, 2001-to-2006 and 2006-to-2011 periods, Canada
Part 3
Table summary
This table displays the results of Interregional migration flows. The information is grouped by Region (appearing as row headers), Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta, British Columbia and territories, Winnipeg, Rest of Manitoba, Regina, Saskatoon, Rest of Saskatchewan, Calgary, Edmonton, Rest of Alberta, Kelowna, Vancouver, Victoria, Abbotsford - Mission, Rest of British Columbia and Territories, calculated using number units of measure (appearing as column headers).

Region	Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta, British Columbia and territories
	Winnipeg	Rest of Manitoba	Regina	Saskatoon	Rest of Saskatchewan	Calgary	Edmonton	Rest of Alberta	Kelowna	Vancouver	Victoria	Abbotsford - Mission	Rest of British Columbia	Territories
	number
St-John's	55	65	10	0	0	150	200	35	10	105	25	0	25	15
Rest of Newfoundland and Labrador	40	10	10	10	15	35	30	200	10	90	25	0	30	15
Prince Edward Island	0	0	0	0	0	50	0	85	0	120	0	0	45	0
Halifax	150	25	20	20	15	780	280	115	45	405	130	0	145	20
Rest of Nova Scotia	55	15	0	0	30	190	140	130	15	210	160	25	190	35
Moncton	0	10	0	0	0	75	80	10	0	20	15	10	15	0
Saint John	15	0	0	15	0	170	50	10	0	85	0	0	15	10
Rest of New Brunswick	40	45	0	15	30	135	335	200	0	95	50	0	75	20
Saguenay	0	0	0	0	0	0	50	40	0	25	0	0	0	10
Québec	30	0	30	0	0	260	120	115	20	145	10	0	35	0
Sherbrooke	15	0	10	0	10	220	85	65	0	40	0	15	25	20
Trois-Rivières	0	0	0	0	0	65	35	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Montréal	505	65	110	435	50	4,525	3,080	495	125	3,640	290	105	475	55
Ottawa - Gatineau (Quebec part)	20	0	0	0	0	95	50	15	0	25	15	0	25	10
Rest of Quebec	30	25	0	45	0	140	165	50	25	105	15	60	85	75
Ottawa - Gatineau (Ontario part)	325	65	85	80	80	1,420	1,140	185	245	1,760	465	15	430	100
Kingston	40	15	10	30	15	180	200	45	0	380	55	10	85	0
Peterborough	10	0	0	10	0	60	10	75	20	60	10	0	55	10
Oshawa	15	10	0	15	0	75	100	35	10	110	40	20	75	10
Toronto	1,785	550	1,015	1,290	270	10,645	8,520	2,875	395	11,175	1,165	340	1,675	425
Hamilton	240	35	65	100	95	435	745	310	35	735	185	40	280	35
St. Catharines - Niagara	35	15	0	35	20	425	415	230	10	325	155	20	165	20
Kitchener - Cambridge - Waterloo	115	10	70	30	0	530	335	275	15	410	150	45	150	10
Brantford	10	10	0	0	10	65	25	10	10	85	10	0	0	0
Guelph	40	0	0	90	0	115	80	30	25	205	55	30	70	0
London	100	55	45	15	25	895	630	260	60	670	205	15	205	20
Windsor	70	10	15	90	15	980	535	175	30	595	10	50	85	10
Barrie	10	0	0	0	0	65	95	30	30	75	35	10	130	15
Greater Sudbury	10	0	0	10	10	65	25	40	15	35	0	0	35	0
Thunder Bay	65	35	0	15	0	70	120	65	35	70	75	10	80	0
Rest of Ontario	275	395	50	70	215	740	690	1,365	125	765	230	30	965	85
Winnipeg	-	2,155	65	205	95	2,470	2,005	480	230	2,675	290	135	640	60
Rest of Manitoba	2,905	-	25	70	210	165	310	610	120	270	35	15	465	25
Regina	130	35	-	235	555	665	225	150	65	275	45	20	90	15
Saskatoon	215	50	270	-	610	790	535	400	95	610	145	30	300	10
Rest of Saskatchewan	125	175	610	930	-	325	385	665	25	220	35	55	350	20
Calgary	520	110	295	410	295	-	3,760	6,525	685	4,845	830	250	3,020	105
Edmonton	345	80	170	210	225	4,795	-	3,900	615	3,535	805	180	1,775	255
Rest of Alberta	175	460	185	170	580	6,725	6,370	-	315	1,120	265	130	1,980	110
Kelowna	60	10	30	10	40	330	170	110	-	1,145	210	135	1,310	10
Vancouver	1,060	110	360	415	205	6,400	3,910	1,510	1,800	-	3,240	4,665	13,860	320
Victoria	65	0	30	50	15	530	260	220	235	3,285	-	125	3,085	50
Abbotsford - Mission	40	65	10	30	15	380	215	110	175	3,745	130	-	1,855	10
Rest of British Columbia	230	75	40	120	350	2,075	1,345	1,725	2,035	9,500	3,185	1,790	-	195
Territories	70	35	0	50	20	215	405	270	25	215	110	10	400	-
Sources: Statistics Canada, 2001 and 2006 censuses (adjusted) and 2011 National Household Survey (adjusted).

Description for Figure 2b

Data table for figure 2b
Interregional migration flows, non-immigrants, total for the 1996-to-2001, 2001-to-2006 and 2006-to-2011 periods, Canada
Part 1
Table summary
This table displays the results of Interregional migration flows. The information is grouped by Region (appearing as row headers), Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and Quebec, St-John's, Rest of Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island, Halifax, Rest of Nova Scotia, Moncton, Saint John, Rest of New Brunswick, Saguenay, Québec, Sherbrooke, Trois-Rivières, Montréal, Ottawa - Gatineau (Quebec part) and Rest of Quebec, calculated using number units of measure (appearing as column headers).

Region	Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and Quebec
	St-John's	Rest of Newfoundland and Labrador	Prince Edward Island	Halifax	Rest of Nova Scotia	Moncton	Saint John	Rest of New Brunswick	Saguenay	Québec	Sherbrooke	Trois-Rivières	Montréal	Ottawa - Gatineau (Quebec part)	Rest of Quebec
	number
St-John's	-	8,630	155	2,000	895	205	160	555	0	35	15	0	575	90	95
Rest of Newfoundland and Labrador	17,010	-	625	2,520	2,155	460	290	1,080	15	135	10	20	320	20	485
Prince Edward Island	335	490	-	1,985	1,330	690	380	1,250	0	65	20	0	355	140	250
Halifax	2,130	2,385	2,155	-	25,080	2,095	1,425	3,300	160	495	90	10	2,365	400	645
Rest of Nova Scotia	1,250	2,165	1,705	28,445	-	2,025	1,025	4,030	10	165	145	15	875	125	505
Moncton	210	245	565	2,385	1,480	-	1,060	12,270	10	300	80	35	1,105	270	400
Saint John	895	875	385	2,040	750	1,830	-	5,970	0	10	10	0	310	80	40
Rest of New Brunswick	775	1,510	1,700	4,990	4,270	16,760	6,605	-	105	1,750	155	85	3,240	780	2,885
Saguenay	0	40	0	165	75	45	0	90	-	6,130	810	445	7,910	960	9,445
Québec	40	20	130	520	175	365	65	1,660	3,500	-	2,395	2,505	28,855	5,010	49,245
Sherbrooke	25	10	0	90	65	145	15	200	320	3,590	-	625	12,290	925	19,425
Trois-Rivières	0	20	0	0	10	15	0	85	290	3,385	865	-	9,705	755	15,080
Montréal	380	115	370	1,705	995	1,130	295	3,015	4,240	25,680	11,585	6,670	-	11,305	208,085
Ottawa - Gatineau (Quebec part)	30	40	115	230	70	145	15	510	325	2,705	560	385	9,335	-	11,065
Rest of Quebec	175	220	185	435	535	605	120	2,390	10,880	64,220	23,395	18,320	138,395	13,160	-
Ottawa - Gatineau (Ontario part)	1,020	650	745	3,755	1,580	990	350	1,740	85	905	225	30	7,710	14,510	2,535
Kingston	315	160	80	1,315	435	105	120	735	45	400	0	0	875	470	120
Peterborough	30	100	60	155	290	15	20	240	0	15	0	0	200	10	35
Oshawa	155	830	325	365	480	60	180	355	0	45	30	15	525	45	380
Toronto	2,985	6,690	1,800	6,535	4,560	1,525	900	3,305	35	915	215	120	16,170	1,055	2,070
Hamilton	465	390	485	975	1,000	245	190	710	0	65	35	0	1,100	245	305
St. Catharines - Niagara	175	155	180	550	715	140	60	410	0	30	25	15	560	140	270
Kitchener - Cambridge - Waterloo	730	1,175	110	580	1,010	215	130	290	0	120	30	0	955	70	295
Brantford	10	80	55	90	250	90	120	120	15	25	0	0	135	25	145
Guelph	210	105	180	250	345	95	65	170	0	15	25	0	410	60	120
London	240	165	155	850	460	150	130	550	45	60	20	10	1,050	105	185
Windsor	70	100	60	370	150	35	95	155	0	70	45	0	420	140	230
Barrie	145	335	140	585	320	90	45	335	15	35	15	0	290	65	280
Greater Sudbury	35	55	120	285	145	50	35	165	20	60	0	0	290	330	375
Thunder Bay	105	80	15	120	155	30	35	50	0	0	0	10	160	50	125
Rest of Ontario	1,015	2,405	930	4,415	4,460	640	425	4,725	435	1,025	215	155	4,975	2,695	4,980
Winnipeg	820	705	190	980	675	115	140	565	170	185	75	20	1,300	385	220
Rest of Manitoba	175	740	120	330	485	75	65	625	0	115	0	0	335	85	340
Regina	75	70	70	240	90	30	15	120	0	80	45	10	335	55	155
Saskatoon	40	35	85	330	225	40	30	115	0	40	0	0	560	55	65
Rest of Saskatchewan	90	230	60	220	555	130	35	245	55	120	40	0	405	20	255
Calgary	1,710	980	835	2,645	2,755	690	1,000	1,750	0	390	95	20	2,905	370	800
Edmonton	1,155	1,420	720	1,890	2,200	630	460	2,195	65	480	270	70	1,965	515	920
Rest of Alberta	1,900	5,190	795	1,980	3,720	685	670	1,955	185	580	95	105	1,115	310	1,020
Kelowna	60	10	75	90	75	20	15	145	0	30	15	0	160	0	165
Vancouver	600	355	285	2,235	1,170	310	285	765	40	490	60	55	6,130	345	825
Victoria	175	85	160	1,440	755	40	40	220	30	180	20	0	900	285	245
Abbotsford - Mission	30	30	110	90	115	15	25	110	0	10	10	0	170	0	80
Rest of British Columbia	545	935	430	1,385	2,040	360	400	1,135	180	205	150	20	1,630	230	1,000
Territories	420	820	160	370	920	80	40	465	15	55	25	10	270	190	360
Sources: Statistics Canada, 2001 and 2006 censuses (adjusted) and 2011 National Household Survey (adjusted).

Data table for figure 2b
Interregional migration flows, non-immigrants, total for the 1996-to-2001, 2001-to-2006 and 2006-to-2011 periods, Canada
Part 2
Table summary
This table displays the results of Interregional migration flows. The information is grouped by Region (appearing as row headers), Ontario, Ottawa - Gatineau (Ontario part), Kingston, Peterborough, Oshawa, Toronto, Hamilton, St. Catharines - Niagara, Kitchener - Cambridge - Waterloo, Brantford, Guelph, London, Windsor, Barrie, Greater Sudbury, Thunder Bay and Rest of Ontario, calculated using number units of measure (appearing as column headers).

Region	Ontario
	Ottawa - Gatineau (Ontario part)	Kingston	Peterborough	Oshawa	Toronto	Hamilton	St. Catharines - Niagara	Kitchener - Cambridge - Waterloo	Brantford	Guelph	London	Windsor	Barrie	Greater Sudbury	Thunder Bay	Rest of Ontario
	number
St-John's	1,220	345	55	235	2,025	245	110	435	40	45	305	80	150	100	50	990
Rest of Newfoundland and Labrador	745	205	35	320	2,645	205	245	835	105	175	215	60	205	80	65	1,820
Prince Edward Island	805	155	45	120	1,260	260	120	210	55	85	180	30	140	25	10	795
Halifax	6,440	885	165	585	7,355	965	255	810	95	180	630	240	505	140	125	3,645
Rest of Nova Scotia	2,235	545	150	445	2,830	700	325	720	170	245	565	105	220	140	150	4,350
Moncton	1,075	140	30	110	980	205	100	65	10	45	120	55	40	30	10	635
Saint John	505	75	10	125	910	330	115	80	15	45	165	60	65	10	0	720
Rest of New Brunswick	2,565	855	240	405	2,660	305	225	495	110	105	425	135	460	335	70	4,955
Saguenay	140	55	0	0	85	10	0	0	20	0	20	0	30	15	0	530
Québec	1,655	490	55	75	1,290	115	60	110	30	20	60	60	95	25	0	1,340
Sherbrooke	370	65	0	20	485	55	55	60	0	60	30	20	15	20	10	435
Trois-Rivières	60	30	0	10	105	0	15	35	0	10	20	0	0	0	0	90
Montréal	12,135	1,230	270	1,015	23,155	1,850	525	1,415	200	585	1,250	695	360	370	175	7,830
Ottawa - Gatineau (Quebec part)	10,495	130	15	65	685	65	90	150	70	10	165	35	15	115	20	2,605
Rest of Quebec	2,175	335	65	330	1,485	300	175	345	25	40	200	150	130	280	115	5,780
Ottawa - Gatineau (Ontario part)	-	4,640	960	1,365	20,255	2,545	1,295	2,305	395	725	2,220	825	1,115	1,420	730	41,465
Kingston	5,815	-	385	615	8,225	1,035	395	770	105	280	910	160	325	200	110	13,100
Peterborough	1,680	780	-	2,160	4,710	565	315	465	225	260	610	140	420	145	130	9,890
Oshawa	1,760	450	2,840	-	22,060	1,210	740	985	260	540	885	370	1,045	350	215	20,660
Toronto	21,600	6,490	6,880	53,720	-	51,420	12,385	22,660	3,560	12,395	14,265	5,100	30,895	3,920	1,735	110,815
Hamilton	2,950	815	620	1,310	34,140	-	9,060	5,140	6,605	2,535	3,345	755	1,435	635	245	24,615
St. Catharines - Niagara	1,655	665	345	1,015	10,885	8,230	-	2,135	745	785	1,995	525	590	300	395	10,855
Kitchener - Cambridge - Waterloo	2,740	765	455	895	19,220	4,405	1,225	-	3,935	5,030	3,685	800	1,095	550	410	27,640
Brantford	270	145	120	240	2,520	3,155	480	2,325	-	280	1,110	205	330	140	40	8,105
Guelph	1,405	350	230	290	9,455	2,220	500	6,705	505	-	1,100	290	380	335	115	9,890
London	3,230	1,070	535	915	17,995	2,890	1,310	4,290	1,030	1,280	-	2,180	955	565	235	29,070
Windsor	1,120	325	165	620	8,555	1,065	655	1,395	285	455	3,655	-	305	250	100	13,975
Barrie	1,105	590	375	820	12,395	1,225	640	820	235	290	1,055	315	-	680	140	18,335
Greater Sudbury	2,795	355	175	575	4,110	590	600	795	100	205	760	310	1,085	-	270	11,550
Thunder Bay	800	310	90	200	1,900	310	275	230	160	150	335	80	350	320	-	5,860
Rest of Ontario	36,535	15,185	11,520	13,995	53,585	16,945	10,775	22,915	7,225	8,250	32,720	13,795	17,290	13,945	9,340	-
Winnipeg	3,215	615	50	290	5,785	690	420	555	50	260	735	200	365	145	800	4,605
Rest of Manitoba	765	175	30	50	985	145	115	200	80	65	185	85	120	250	295	2,730
Regina	705	35	10	30	765	155	45	120	10	120	125	40	40	20	20	510
Saskatoon	675	160	50	45	1,065	150	200	120	20	80	150	165	70	40	85	645
Rest of Saskatchewan	380	60	60	70	635	445	225	230	85	45	115	85	125	90	80	1,810
Calgary	3,400	680	275	730	10,010	1,645	680	1,455	215	310	1,375	515	320	250	600	5,235
Edmonton	3,480	1,055	160	345	5,350	750	390	610	130	230	1,055	280	415	295	460	4,245
Rest of Alberta	1,880	645	290	420	2,530	740	690	630	120	215	745	280	580	380	355	6,475
Kelowna	315	15	50	65	530	85	180	95	30	15	205	30	15	65	90	565
Vancouver	5,545	780	235	735	17,985	1,870	955	1,360	175	480	1,365	615	495	285	545	4,245
Victoria	2,620	385	90	170	2,255	300	215	370	40	125	325	60	120	30	270	1,745
Abbotsford - Mission	105	40	10	50	565	120	70	110	10	15	45	35	15	35	30	335
Rest of British Columbia	2,470	555	335	420	3,010	760	645	510	160	415	820	315	435	455	540	6,470
Territories	1,080	150	20	110	430	120	175	150	30	0	50	45	50	110	110	1,485
Sources: Statistics Canada, 2001 and 2006 censuses (adjusted) and 2011 National Household Survey (adjusted).

Data table for figure 2b
Interregional migration flows, non-immigrants, total for the 1996-to-2001, 2001-to-2006 and 2006-to-2011 periods, Canada
Part 3
Table summary
This table displays the results of Interregional migration flows. The information is grouped by Region (appearing as row headers), Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta, British Columbia and territories, Winnipeg, Rest of Manitoba, Regina, Saskatoon, Rest of Saskatchewan, Calgary, Edmonton, Rest of Alberta, Kelowna, Vancouver, Victoria, Abbotsford - Mission, Rest of British Columbia and Territories, calculated using number units of measure (appearing as column headers).

Region	Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta, British Columbia and territories
	Winnipeg	Rest of Manitoba	Regina	Saskatoon	Rest of Saskatchewan	Calgary	Edmonton	Rest of Alberta	Kelowna	Vancouver	Victoria	Abbotsford - Mission	Rest of British Columbia	Territories
	number
St-John's	220	260	80	55	85	1,655	2,085	2,400	70	1,180	270	25	490	575
Rest of Newfoundland and Labrador	310	340	160	90	610	1,615	2,645	11,715	45	325	195	10	980	1,305
Prince Edward Island	100	175	75	20	50	1,080	885	1,415	120	340	170	15	485	210
Halifax	865	370	200	250	260	4,520	3,510	3,430	150	2,400	1,470	75	1,265	830
Rest of Nova Scotia	865	465	165	150	855	3,590	3,665	6,965	330	1,355	660	85	2,465	825
Moncton	180	85	10	30	55	835	640	900	50	195	85	20	230	155
Saint John	120	100	60	85	60	885	1,105	865	0	270	115	35	225	80
Rest of New Brunswick	470	870	190	150	415	2,400	3,115	5,160	75	800	470	35	1,525	440
Saguenay	65	0	0	0	10	45	160	175	10	90	30	0	135	20
Québec	240	135	80	50	105	895	925	855	60	625	150	55	540	185
Sherbrooke	25	55	10	20	35	340	235	165	35	225	55	25	80	30
Trois-Rivières	0	20	0	10	0	215	105	70	0	50	30	0	100	25
Montréal	1,240	355	270	870	450	7,480	5,130	1,855	295	7,670	1,170	150	2,065	575
Ottawa - Gatineau (Quebec part)	175	65	40	20	130	280	395	180	0	200	85	15	285	140
Rest of Quebec	230	310	45	125	255	1,030	1,340	1,530	180	855	220	185	1,640	350
Ottawa - Gatineau (Ontario part)	1,500	430	505	480	380	4,120	3,155	2,105	705	6,180	2,480	180	2,465	885
Kingston	320	200	90	190	150	1,225	1,125	755	75	1,200	600	45	665	185
Peterborough	80	60	35	75	85	345	255	515	100	420	100	0	410	125
Oshawa	160	140	0	105	80	1,000	720	765	90	895	175	75	475	110
Toronto	3,550	1,115	1,630	2,285	1,085	19,550	13,250	7,305	1,480	22,050	3,930	585	6,490	1,195
Hamilton	755	215	125	210	285	1,870	2,005	1,575	320	2,390	585	255	1,600	190
St. Catharines - Niagara	545	105	100	195	175	1,250	1,370	1,225	105	1,185	355	110	955	100
Kitchener - Cambridge - Waterloo	475	200	390	200	225	1,970	1,030	1,125	215	1,385	550	60	995	210
Brantford	65	90	10	15	15	255	285	275	40	350	110	0	280	20
Guelph	150	35	75	180	35	950	495	355	55	940	155	45	215	75
London	465	200	105	220	170	2,565	1,890	1,590	205	2,515	835	120	1,405	110
Windsor	225	90	90	285	195	2,135	1,440	935	75	1,415	285	75	570	50
Barrie	85	235	125	30	75	815	510	630	80	515	295	0	685	85
Greater Sudbury	130	150	0	65	120	435	480	595	25	325	125	15	365	100
Thunder Bay	935	350	25	75	235	1,410	995	1,060	240	545	155	110	685	150
Rest of Ontario	4,600	3,240	560	1,000	2,400	6,885	7,265	12,980	825	4,940	2,880	360	9,310	1,350
Winnipeg	-	33,085	1,215	1,240	1,750	8,625	6,670	5,310	1,405	6,850	1,865	460	3,900	660
Rest of Manitoba	37,470	-	915	1,590	5,290	3,100	2,895	6,405	480	1,325	460	265	2,935	390
Regina	1,280	840	-	4,185	14,100	4,890	2,695	3,795	515	1,500	560	175	1,550	175
Saskatoon	1,340	1,525	4,910	-	22,185	6,085	4,995	5,840	685	1,900	805	255	3,160	315
Rest of Saskatchewan	1,790	4,235	18,525	27,810	-	5,115	5,775	21,030	675	1,455	395	310	4,435	665
Calgary	4,315	2,355	2,785	5,150	6,650	-	19,250	63,480	6,700	15,450	6,090	1,120	25,185	1,000
Edmonton	2,950	1,880	1,785	2,590	5,495	23,575	-	56,790	4,430	12,585	4,545	1,020	18,350	1,965
Rest of Alberta	2,280	4,395	2,020	4,495	16,940	50,355	74,220	-	3,795	6,215	3,000	925	28,125	2,010
Kelowna	395	245	285	405	620	3,775	2,175	2,665	-	6,410	1,845	795	13,335	270
Vancouver	3,440	1,165	1,240	1,770	1,550	16,205	10,400	7,140	10,785	-	14,395	22,580	82,080	1,520
Victoria	855	285	320	450	640	3,855	2,895	2,800	1,425	14,780	-	565	23,745	485
Abbotsford - Mission	515	515	110	275	265	1,465	1,300	1,525	1,635	15,190	850	-	15,490	90
Rest of British Columbia	2,125	1,925	950	1,705	5,720	19,185	17,265	33,980	18,660	50,270	26,175	9,830	-	2,570
Territories	630	640	155	535	570	1,435	2,915	3,490	190	1,160	585	160	3,410	-
Sources: Statistics Canada, 2001 and 2006 censuses (adjusted) and 2011 National Household Survey (adjusted).

Fertility

A key determinant of population growth, fertility—along with mortality—also plays a key role in the evolution of the population’s age structure. For this projection exercise, three assumptions on the average number of children per woman were selected. These assumptions, which reflect the ones used in the publication Population Projections for Canada (2013 to 2063), Provinces and Territories (2013 to 2038) (Statistics Canada 2014a),^{Note 25} highlight the uncertainty behind the future trends of this component. These three assumptions are based on a target for the average number of children per woman (total fertility rate, or TFR) being reached in 2021. Under the low assumption, the TFR of 1.61 children per woman estimated in 2011 progressively decreases to 1.53 children per woman in 2021. The medium and high assumptions involve the progressive attainment of a TFR of 1.67 and 1.88 children per woman, respectively, in 2021. Fertility rates by age are adjusted proportionally over time to reach the target annual TFR.^{Note 26}

Only one assumption was retained with regard to differential fertility based on various characteristics (visible minority group, religion, birthplace, time elapsed since immigration, etc.) of women of child-bearing age: that fertility differences between the projected groups, as estimated in 2010/2011, are maintained. The decision to use only one assumption was based on an analysis of past trends that reveals that fertility differences between the groups are exceptionally persistent over time (Morency and Caron-Malenfant 2014). It is noteworthy that people in relationships, recent immigrants and people of Muslim and Jewish faith are more likely to give birth to a child than people who are not in a relationship, members of the Chinese, Japanese or Korean visible minority groups, and Orthodox Christians and unaffiliated people (Bélanger and Gilbert 2003; Caron-Malenfant and Bélanger 2006).

Assigning ethnocultural characteristics to newborns

Increases in specific population subgroups depend not only on the fertility of the women who belong to the groups, but also on the “transmission” of characteristics to children, since newborns do not necessarily have the same characteristics as their mother.^{Note 27} This is particularly true for visible minority group, religion and language variables, for which the probability of transmission is the subject of a separate assumption in each case.^{Note 28}

Assigning each of these characteristics to newborns is based on assumptions that are similar in every case. Visible minority group, religion, mother tongue and language spoken most often at home^{Note 29} are assigned by supposing that transmission patterns are identical to those estimated for the youngest children and their mother in the 2011 NHS.

The decision to use only one assumption to assign each of these characteristics was based on an analysis of recent trends between the 2001 and 2006 censuses and the 2011 NHS (for religion, only the 2001 Census and the 2011 NHS), which shows a high level of stability in the transmission rates of visible minority group, religion, mother tongue and language spoken most often at home.^{Note 30} For example, Figure 3 presents the proportion of children under the age of one with the same visible minority group as their mother for three different periods.

Description for Figure 3

Data table for figure 3
Proportion of children under the age of one belonging to the same visible minority group as their mother, Canada, 2001, 2006 and 2011
Table summary
This table displays the results of Proportion of children under the age of one belonging to the same visible minority group as their mother. The information is grouped by Visible minority group (appearing as row headers), 2001, 2006 and 2011, calculated using percent units of measure (appearing as column headers).

Visible minority group	2001	2006	2011
	percent
Chinese	95	93	93
South Asian	95	95	95
Black	93	93	95
Arab	92	90	91
West Asian	87	86	88
Southeast Asian	86	83	79
Korean	86	84	86
Filipino	83	83	86
Japanese	68	74	74
Latin American	57	59	62
Sources: Statistics Canada, 2001 and 2006 censuses (adjusted) and 2011 National Household Survey (adjusted).

Mortality

As with fertility, three assumptions were selected for mortality rates by age and sex at the national level. These rates by age and sex change in the same way as those used in Population Projections for Canada (2013 to 2063), Provinces and Territories (2013 to 2038) (Statistics Canada 2014a).^{Note 31} These assumptions reflect major increases in life expectancy from 1981 to 2010 (Martel 2013; Greenberg and Normandin 2011), but also the uncertainty associated with its growth rate in the future.

In the low assumption, the life expectancy at birth of 79.2 years for men and 83.5 years for women that were seen in 2011 would rise to 83.5 years^{Note 32} for men and 86.1 years for women in 2036 under the low growth scenario.^{Note 33} In the medium assumption, they would be 84.6 years for men and 87.2 years for women in 2036 in the reference scenario, and finally, 86.2 years for men and 89.0 years for women in the high assumption in the high growth scenario.

Only one assumption was selected to take into account differential mortality between the various groups that make up the population. Using data from the Canadian census mortality follow-up study, 1991 through 2006, it assumes, among other things, that the mortality of immigrants—and of recent immigrants in particular—is lower than for people born in Canada (Figure 4), and that this difference tends to decrease with the years since immigration. These results are consistent with those observed in the literature (Vang et al. 2015; Omariba et al. 2014; Trovato and Odynak 2011). It is also assumed that mortality is lower for both men and women among the most highly educated (Tjepkema et al. 2012) and members of a visible minority group. In this assumption, differential mortality would remain unchanged throughout the projected period.

Description for Figure 4

Data table for figure 4
Life expectancy at birth by immigrant status and sex, reference scenario, Canada, 2011 (estimated) to 2036 (projected)
Table summary
This table displays the results of Life expectancy at birth by immigrant status and sex. The information is grouped by Year (appearing as row headers), Non-immigrant, Immigrant, Total, Males and Females, calculated using in years units of measure (appearing as column headers).

Year	Non-immigrant			Immigrant
	Total	Males	Females	Total	Males	Females
	in years
2011	80.9	78.5	83.1	83.3	81.5	85.0
2012	81.1	78.8	83.3	83.5	81.6	85.1
2013	81.3	79.0	83.4	83.6	82.0	85.1
2014	81.5	79.3	83.6	84.0	82.2	85.5
2015	81.6	79.4	83.7	83.5	82.0	84.9
2016	81.8	79.7	83.9	84.3	82.7	85.8
2017	82.0	79.8	84.1	84.3	82.7	85.8
2018	82.3	80.3	84.2	84.3	82.7	85.8
2019	82.4	80.4	84.3	84.6	83.2	85.9
2020	82.6	80.6	84.5	84.8	83.3	86.2
2021	82.8	80.8	84.6	84.8	83.3	86.3
2022	83.0	81.1	84.8	85.1	83.7	86.4
2023	83.2	81.3	85.0	85.1	83.5	86.6
2024	83.3	81.4	85.2	85.6	84.1	86.9
2025	83.5	81.7	85.3	85.8	84.3	87.1
2026	83.7	82.0	85.4	86.0	84.8	87.0
2027	83.8	82.1	85.5	86.0	84.8	87.1
2028	84.0	82.3	85.7	86.2	85.0	87.3
2029	84.2	82.6	85.8	86.4	85.1	87.5
2030	84.3	82.7	85.9	86.5	85.1	87.7
2031	84.5	82.9	86.0	86.5	85.3	87.7
2032	84.7	83.1	86.2	86.7	85.4	87.8
2033	84.8	83.3	86.3	86.9	85.6	88.1
2034	85.0	83.5	86.4	87.1	86.0	88.2
2035	85.1	83.7	86.5	87.2	86.2	88.1
2036	85.3	83.8	86.7	87.2	86.2	88.1
Note: Does not include non-permanent residents. Source: Statistics Canada, Demosim 2017.

Intragenerational language changes^{Note 34}

It has been observed over time that some people change their language spoken most often at home and that the resulting intragenerational language changes affect the relative size of the country’s language groups. To take into account these language changes during a person’s lifetime, one assumption was selected for changes in the language spoken most often at home.

The assumption retained is based on the data from the micromatched file of the 2001 and 2006 censuses. It supposes that changes can occur up to 50 years of age. The probabilities of changing the language spoken most often at home are measured separately by mother tongue and the language spoken most often in the original home, place of residence (Quebec or outside Quebec) and immigrant status (immigrant or non-immigrant). These characteristics are critical in the change models. Analyses have shown that the people most likely to see a change in their language spoken most often at home are immigrants who arrived at a young age and second-generation persons whose mother tongue is neither English nor French. Corbeil and Houle (2014) have shown that, among immigrants in Quebec, transfers of the language spoken most often at home generally take place within the first five years following their arrival in Canada, while for second-generation persons, transfers generally occur before the age of 10. In Canada outside Quebec, most transfers of the language spoken most often at home are toward English, but in Quebec, these transfers are toward French and, to a lesser extent, English (Corbeil and Houle 2014; Sabourin and Bélanger 2015).^{Note 35}

Intragenerational religious mobility

In recent decades, a substantial portion of the changes in the size of some religious groups, particularly Catholic, certain Protestant groups and unaffiliated, has not been attributable to the factors of population growth, i.e., fertility, mortality and migration. In fact, these changes appear to be tied to changes in religion that could occur during an individual’s lifetime; in other words, intragenerational religious mobility^{Note 36} (Caron-Malenfant et al. forthcoming; Statistics Canada 2010).

An analysis using the residual method applied to censuses and the NHS revealed that levels of intragenerational religious mobility for certain religions were not constant over time (Caron-Malenfant et al. forthcoming), and as a result, future trends for this component were highly uncertain. For this reason, two assumptions were selected. The first involves maintaining the trends in intragenerational religious mobility estimated between the 2001 Census and the 2011 NHS throughout the projection. These trends were particularly unfavourable to the growth of the Catholic and Protestant groups, but particularly favourable to the growth of the “other Christian” group (other than Catholic, Protestant and Orthodox Christian) and people who are unaffiliated. The second assumption consists of maintaining the trends observed between the 1991 and 2001 censuses, which are less unfavourable to the growth of the Catholic and Protestant populations and thus less favourable to the “other Christian” group and unaffiliated people.

Other assumptions

Other assumptions that relate to specific components in the background of the projection model (level of education, marital status) or that are more specifically related to the Aboriginal populations (ethnic mobility of Aboriginal people) were also used for this projection exercise. The assumptions for the Aboriginal populations are the same as the ones used for the constant fertility scenario in Projections of the Aboriginal Population and Households, 2011 to 2036 (Statistics Canada 2015). The assumptions relating to level of education and marital status are also identical to the ones used in the Aboriginal projections (Statistics Canada 2015).

These assumptions are as follows:

• A gradual levelling-off of the upward trend in education of the population and maintenance of the differences between the projected groups;
• A gradual slowdown of the upward trend in the probability of not being in a union and, among people in a union, the upward trend in the probability of living common-law;
• Maintenance of the fertility differences between the Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal populations until 2036;
• Maintenance of the differences in life expectancy between the Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal populations until 2036;
• Nil international migration for the Aboriginal population;
• Maintenance of the intergenerational transmission rates for the Aboriginal group, estimated in 2011, until 2036;
• Maintenance of the intragenerational ethnic mobility rates of Aboriginal people, estimated from 1996 to 2011, until 2036.

Scenarios

This section shows how the assumptions relating to each component were combined to create the scenarios used for this projection exercise. Although many scenarios can be constructed, only 12 were used. Of that number, seven are analyzed in this report. The other five are only used to provide data users with an assessment of the sensitivity of the results to certain factors aside from those explicitly considered in the analysis.

Scenarios analyzed in this report

The seven scenarios analyzed in this report were chosen on the basis of their plausibility and relevance to the purpose of the analysis: to assess the influence of various characteristics of immigration on the future ethnocultural diversity of Canada’s population. Below is a description of each scenario analyzed in the report (Table 2).^{Note 37}

The reference scenario combines the following: a medium immigration level of 8.3 immigrants per 1,000 population, a provincial or territorial distribution of new immigrants upon arrival representative of the distribution estimated between July 2010 and June 2015, medium emigration, a progressive decrease in the net change in the number of non-permanent residents to 0 by 2021, a medium fertility rate of 1.67 children per woman, medium growth in life expectancy, internal migration patterns representative of the average estimated during the 1996-to-2001, 2001-to-2006 and 2006-to-2011 periods and, finally, net intragenerational religious mobility based on the period from 2001 to 2011.

The reference scenario is designated as such not because of its better predictive capacity (see the “Cautionary note” section), but because it is a central scenario on which the other scenarios were constructed. The six other scenarios in the analysis differ from the reference scenario by only one component: immigration level (scenarios 2 and 3), geographic distribution of immigrants in Canada at the time of arrival (scenarios 4 and 5), geographic origin of immigrants (scenario 6) and intragenerational religious mobility (scenario 7). This last scenario is slightly apart from the others since it is not designed to assess the sensitivity of ethnocultural diversity to a characteristic of immigration. It was included here because projection results for religion will be presented in the analysis, and because failing to take into account the sensitivity of the results to intragenerational religious mobility would overlook the high level of uncertainty associated with this component.

Other scenarios

The main purpose of the scenarios presented above is to produce plausible variations in the components that affect the future composition of Canada’s population. However, aside from the ones that propose different immigration levels (low and high immigration), these scenarios can provide only a fairly limited range of results with regard to the size and future geographic distribution of the population. Therefore, it is also important to produce variations with regard to the components of population growth (fertility, mortality and, at the regional level, internal migration). That is precisely the rationale behind the following five scenarios presented in Table 3^{Note 38}. The results of these five additional scenarios are presented in the appendix.

Two scenarios (8 and 9)^{Note 39} differ from the reference scenario for all demographic components (immigration, emigration, net change in the number of non-permanent residents, fertility and mortality) in order to provide a maximum range of the future trends in population size. The other three scenarios (10, 11 and 12) differ from the reference scenario only insofar as they assume that net interregional migration contributes to population growth in different regions to reflect different historical periods. The last three scenarios are meant to highlight the sensitivity of the results to different levels of internal migration on the future geographic distribution of the regions’ populations.

Cautionary note

Readers are reminded that this projection exercise comprises two objectives: 1) to assess the future sensitivity of the composition of Canada’s population, using various indicators of ethnocultural diversity, to certain aspects relating mainly to immigration, and 2) to provide a plausible range of the possible growth of Canada’s population and its regions.

The “Analysis of results” section addresses the first objective, and seven scenarios have been selected to that end. Sometimes the results of the five additional scenarios—which are only presented in the appendix and seek to achieve the second objective—are outside the range of the seven scenarios analyzed. In the vast majority of the cases, there is virtually no impact on the range of results and the broad conclusions still apply.

Moreover, the choice of assumptions and scenarios is not intended to predict the future, but rather to provide data users with a portrait of the Canadian population if certain conditions were met. Because it is impossible to know the future, several scenarios were developed to identify a broad range of plausible possibilities in light of the data and past trends, among others. For this reason, users of these projections are encouraged to consider the entire range of results rather than to look for a more likely scenario.

As with any prospective exercise, these projections have certain limitations with regard to, for example, data sources, adjustments to the base population and the methods chosen. These limitations are documented in greater detail in Demosim: An Overview of Methods and Data Sources, Demosim 2017 (Statistics Canada 2017a).

Other sources of uncertainty, including those relating to the variance associated with certain projection parameters as well as the albeit low variability associated with the random processes inherent to microsimulation, could affect the projection results. For these reasons, and to avoid giving the impression of too high an accuracy level, the results presented below have been rounded to the nearest thousand.

Lastly, for the purposes of consistency with other Statistics Canada products, the concepts used in this report are based on those used in the 2011 National Household Survey. They therefore reflect the most recent changes in the choice of definitions.

Analysis of results

The analysis in this section is intended to assess the sensitivity of the evolution, up to 2036, of certain ethnocultural diversity indicators (related to immigrant’s birthplace, generation status, languages, visible minority status and religion) in Canada to various aspects of immigration. The analysis is in two parts. First, an overall portrait is proposed. Second, a similar analysis is presented in the form of brief provincial/regional portraits as well as Montréal, Toronto and Vancouver.

International migratory increase would be the main source of increase of Canada’s population over the next 25 years

For most of the 20th century, Canada’s population growth was based primarily on natural increase. However, from the late 1990s (Figure 5), international migratory increase became the main source of the growth of the country’s population, largely owing to a sustained immigration, a progressive increase in the number of deaths and relatively low fertility during this period. This change in the situation highlights the significance of immigration (the main source of migratory increase) in the rise of the Canadian population in the recent period. Between 2000 and 2011, 65% of the total increase came from net international migration.

Description for Figure 5

Data table for figure 5
International migratory increase and natural increase, Canada, 1972 to 2011 (estimated) and 2012 to 2036 (projected according to three scenarios)
Table summary
This table displays the results of International migratory increase and natural increase. The information is grouped by Year (appearing as row headers), Natural increase, International migratory increase, Estimated, Projected, low-immigration scenario, Reference scenario and High immigration scenario, calculated using thousands units of measure (appearing as column headers).

Year	Natural increase				International migratory increase
	Estimated	Projected			Estimated	Projected
		low-immigration scenario	Reference scenario	High immigration scenario		low-immigration scenario	Reference scenario	High immigration scenario
	thousands
1972	185	-	-	-	99	-	-	-
1973	179	-	-	-	151	-	-	-
1974	184	-	-	-	174	-	-	-
1975	192	-	-	-	162	-	-	-
1976	193	-	-	-	118	-	-	-
1977	194	-	-	-	84	-	-	-
1978	191	-	-	-	52	-	-	-
1979	198	-	-	-	96	-	-	-
1980	199	-	-	-	141	-	-	-
1981	200	-	-	-	134	-	-	-
1982	199	-	-	-	87	-	-	-
1983	199	-	-	-	62	-	-	-
1984	201	-	-	-	59	-	-	-
1985	194	-	-	-	68	-	-	-
1986	189	-	-	-	116	-	-	-
1987	185	-	-	-	164	-	-	-
1988	187	-	-	-	246	-	-	-
1989	202	-	-	-	232	-	-	-
1990	214	-	-	-	180	-	-	-
1991	207	-	-	-	135	-	-	-
1992	202	-	-	-	174	-	-	-
1993	183	-	-	-	143	-	-	-
1994	178	-	-	-	152	-	-	-
1995	167	-	-	-	162	-	-	-
1996	153	-	-	-	167	-	-	-
1997	133	-	-	-	154	-	-	-
1998	124	-	-	-	117	-	-	-
1999	118	-	-	-	158	-	-	-
2000	110	-	-	-	199	-	-	-
2001	114	-	-	-	242	-	-	-
2002	105	-	-	-	213	-	-	-
2003	109	-	-	-	195	-	-	-
2004	110	-	-	-	198	-	-	-
2005	112	-	-	-	216	-	-	-
2006	127	-	-	-	220	-	-	-
2007	133	-	-	-	235	-	-	-
2008	139	-	-	-	273	-	-	-
2009	142	-	-	-	272	-	-	-
2010	137	-	-	-	255	-	-	-
2011	136	-	-	-	250	-	-	-
2012	-	134	134	134	-	251	252	251
2013	-	136	136	135	-	245	245	245
2014	-	135	135	136	-	201	201	201
2015	-	134	135	135	-	229	229	229
2016	-	136	136	136	-	247	264	272
2017	-	137	137	137	-	206	244	262
2018	-	139	141	141	-	205	255	279
2019	-	139	142	143	-	187	255	288
2020	-	137	142	145	-	168	253	297
2021	-	135	142	146	-	151	253	305
2022	-	131	141	146	-	134	253	317
2023	-	123	136	143	-	128	257	325
2024	-	119	136	144	-	128	258	328
2025	-	111	130	140	-	130	262	332
2026	-	102	124	135	-	131	264	336
2027	-	92	117	130	-	132	268	340
2028	-	85	112	126	-	134	270	344
2029	-	75	105	120	-	135	272	346
2030	-	66	97	115	-	136	275	350
2031	-	57	91	109	-	139	277	355
2032	-	47	84	103	-	139	281	359
2033	-	39	77	98	-	139	281	361
2034	-	31	70	92	-	142	286	367
2035	-	24	65	87	-	143	289	369
2035	-	18	61	85	-	144	291	372
Sources: Statistics Canada, Demographic Estimates Program and Demosim 2017.

According to the results of the different projection scenarios, international migratory increase would continue to be the main growth component of Canada’s population until 2036, even in the low-immigration scenario. It is projected that on average, between 62% (low-immigration scenario) and 71% (high-immigration scenario) of the total increase between 2012 and 2036 would stem from migratory increase. In 2036, in all the scenarios used, over 80% of the increase in Canada’s population would be due to migratory increase, of which immigration would be the main component. Sustained immigration, an increase in the number of deaths projected and continued low fertility throughout the projection would explain these results.

The proportion of immigrants in Canada’s population would continue to increase up to 2036

In light of the foregoing, it is not surprising that Canada is one of the developed countries with the highest proportions of foreign-born individuals in its population. In 2011, this proportion was over one in five people (20.9%),^{Note 40} higher than in the United States (13.0%), the United Kingdom (11.7%) and the majority of OECD countries.^{Note 41}

Since Confederation in 1867, Canada’s population has always comprised a large proportion of immigrants (Figure 6) (Box 2) on account of the successive waves of immigrants who played an important role in the country’s history. Data from Canadian censuses since 1871 show that this proportion has never fallen below 13.0% (in 1901) and it even reached 22.3% in 1921. Although the proportion of immigrants remained fairly stable between 1951 and 1991 (between 14.7% and 16.1%), it has risen rapidly since then to reach 20.7% in 2011.

Description for Figure 6

Data table for figure 6
Proportion of immigrants, Canada, 1871 to 2011 (estimated) and 2016 to 2036 (projected in three scenarios)
Table summary
This table displays the results of Proportion of immigrants. The information is grouped by Year (appearing as row headers), Estimated, Projected, Reference, low-immigration and High immigration, calculated using percent units of measure (appearing as column headers).

Year	Estimated	Projected
		Reference	low-immigration	High immigration
	percent
1871	16.5	-	-	-
1876	15.2	-	-	-
1881	13.9	-	-	-
1886	13.6	-	-	-
1891	13.3	-	-	-
1896	13.2	-	-	-
1901	13.0	-	-	-
1906	17.5	-	-	-
1911	22.0	-	-	-
1916	22.1	-	-	-
1921	22.3	-	-	-
1926	22.2	-	-	-
1931	22.2	-	-	-
1936	19.9	-	-	-
1941	17.5	-	-	-
1946	16.1	-	-	-
1951	14.7	-	-	-
1956	15.1	-	-	-
1961	15.6	-	-	-
1966	15.4	-	-	-
1971	15.3	-	-	-
1976	15.6	-	-	-
1981	16.0	-	-	-
1986	16.0	-	-	-
1991	16.1	-	-	-
1996	17.4	-	-	-
2001	18.4	-	-	-
2006	19.8	-	-	-
2011	20.6	-	-	-
2016	-	22.1	22.1	22.1
2021	-	23.7	23.1	24.0
2026	-	25.2	23.5	26.1
2031	-	26.7	24.0	28.1
2036	-	28.2	24.5	30.0
Note: Before 1981, the immigrant population was composed of all people born outside Canada. In the 1981 and 1986 censuses, it was composed of people who did not have Canadian citizenship at birth. Since 1991, the immigrant population has been composed of people who hold or once held landed immigrant status in Canada. As a result, it does not include non-permanent residents or Canadian citizens by birth who were born abroad. Sources: Statistics Canada, censuses of the population, 2011 National Household Survey (adjusted) and Demosim 2017.

The results of all the projection scenarios show that this proportion would continue to increase over the next 25 years to between 24.5% in the low-immigration scenario and 30.0% in the high-immigration scenario, proportions above the record observed in 1921. In numbers, this would represent between 10.0 million and 13.6 million immigrants (all immigration periods combined) in 2036, a strong increase compared with the number estimated in 2011 (7.1 million).

Immigrants would continue to be concentrated in Montréal, Toronto and Vancouver

The immigrant population living in Canada is not distributed evenly among the country’s different regions. One of its characteristics is its strong concentration in census metropolitan areas (CMAs), and in Montréal, Toronto and Vancouver in particular. In 2011, 90.9% of the immigrant population was living in a CMA, and close to two in three immigrants (63.2%) resided in either Montréal (12.4%), Toronto (37.4%) or Vancouver (13.4%) (Figure 7). In comparison, 69.1% of Canada’s entire population was living in a CMA in 2011, and just over one in three people (35.0%) were living in one of the country’s three largest metropolitan areas.

Description for Figure 7

Data table for figure 7
Geographic distribution of the immigrant population by region, Canada, 2011 (estimated) and 2036 (projected according to six scenarios)
Table summary
This table displays the results of Geographic distribution of the immigrant population by region. The information is grouped by Region (appearing as row headers), Estimated, Projected - Reference scenario, Difference between the maximum and the reference scenario and Difference between the minimum and the reference scenario, calculated using percent units of measure (appearing as column headers).

Region	Estimated	Projected - Reference scenario	Difference between the maximum and the reference scenario	Difference between the minimum and the reference scenario
	percent
St-John's	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
Rest of Newfoundland and Labrador	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Prince Edward Island	0.1	0.2	0.0	0.1
Halifax	0.5	0.5	0.0	0.1
Rest of Nova Scotia	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.0
Moncton	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
Saint John	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
Rest of New Brunswick	0.2	0.3	0.0	0.1
Saguenay	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Québec	0.5	0.5	0.0	0.0
Sherbrooke	0.2	0.2	0.0	0.0
Trois-Rivières	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
Montréal	12.4	13.9	0.7	0.0
Ottawa - Gatineau (Quebec part)	0.4	0.7	0.0	0.0
Rest of Quebec	0.7	0.6	0.0	0.0
Ottawa - Gatineau (Ontario part)	3.0	2.8	0.4	0.1
Kingston	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.0
Peterborough	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
Oshawa	0.8	0.7	0.1	0.0
Toronto	37.4	33.9	5.2	0.2
Hamilton	2.5	1.9	0.2	0.0
St. Catharines - Niagara	1.0	0.6	0.1	0.0
Kitchener - Cambridge - Waterloo	1.6	1.5	0.2	0.0
Brantford	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
Guelph	0.4	0.3	0.0	0.0
London	1.3	0.9	0.1	0.0
Windsor	1.0	0.8	0.1	0.0
Barrie	0.3	0.3	0.0	0.0
Greater Sudbury	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
Thunder Bay	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
Rest of Ontario	3.0	1.6	0.2	0.1
Winnipeg	2.2	3.4	0.1	1.2
Rest of Manitoba	0.6	0.8	0.2	0.3
Regina	0.3	0.8	0.0	0.4
Saskatoon	0.4	0.9	0.0	0.5
Rest of Saskatchewan	0.3	0.6	0.1	0.3
Calgary	4.7	7.3	0.1	1.8
Edmonton	3.5	5.2	0.1	1.3
Rest of Alberta	1.5	2.0	0.0	0.6
Kelowna	0.4	0.3	0.0	0.0
Vancouver	13.4	12.4	0.7	0.1
Victoria	0.9	0.7	0.0	0.0
Abbotsford - Mission	0.6	0.5	0.0	0.0
Rest of British Columbia	2.3	1.4	0.1	0.0
Territories	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
Sources: Statistics Canada, 2011 National Household Survey (adjusted) and Demosim 2017.

In all the projection scenarios, the geographic distribution of immigrants among the various regions in 2036 would be similar to the 2011 estimate. The vast majority (between 91.7% and 93.4%) would continue to live in a CMA, and Montréal (between 13.9% and 14.6%), Toronto (between 33.6% and 39.1%) and Vancouver (between 12.4% and 13.1%) would remain the three major regions of residence of immigrants. In comparison, approximately one in four people in Canada would live outside a metropolitan area in 2036 based on all the scenarios, while roughly 40% of the population would reside in one of the country’s three major CMAs.

At the provincial and territorial level, the immigrant population was overrepresented in 2011 in Ontario (53.3% of all immigrants in Canada were living there, compared with 38.6% of the country’s population) and British Columbia (17.5% compared with 13.1%). In every other province, particularly Quebec and the Atlantic provinces, the immigrant population was underrepresented in relation to the demographic weight of these provinces in Canada as a whole.

At the end of the projection period, the immigrant population would still be overrepresented in Ontario and British Columbia. As in 2011, Ontario would still have the highest proportion of immigrants residing in Canada (between 45.4% and 52.4%), followed by Quebec (between 16.0% and 16.8%) and British Columbia (between 15.3% and 16.2%).

The proportion of immigrants would increase in almost all parts of Canada

In 2011, immigrants’ weight in the population varied somewhat from one region to the next. In general, the proportion of immigrants in the Atlantic regions and Quebec (aside from Montréal) and in non-CMAs across the country was far below the Canadian average (20.7%) (Figure 8). At the other end of the spectrum, the proportion of immigrants in 2011 was highest in Toronto (46.0%), Vancouver (40.0%), Calgary (26.2%), Hamilton (23.6%) and Abbotsford – Mission (23.5%).

Description for Figure 8

Data table for figure 8
Proportion of immigrants by region, Canada, 2011 (estimated) and 2036 (projected according to six scenarios)
Table summary
This table displays the results of Proportion of immigrants by region. The information is grouped by Region (appearing as row headers), Estimated, Projected - Reference scenario, Difference between the maximum and the reference scenario and Difference between the minimum and the reference scenario, calculated using percent units of measure (appearing as column headers).

Region	Estimated	Projected - Reference scenario	Difference between the maximum and the reference scenario	Difference between the minimum and the reference scenario
	percent
Canada	20.7	28.2	1.8	3.7
St-John's	3.1	6.6	0.9	1.6
Rest of Newfoundland and Labrador	1	1.8	0.3	0.4
Prince Edward Island	5.1	17.3	2.1	9.4
Halifax	8.2	15.2	1.6	3
Rest of Nova Scotia	3.3	4.5	0.4	0.8
Moncton	4.4	9.4	1.2	4
Saint John	4.3	10.8	1.3	3.7
Rest of New Brunswick	3.6	7.8	1	2.6
Saguenay	1.1	2.9	0.4	0.8
Québec	4.4	7.9	0.9	1.6
Sherbrooke	6.2	10.5	1.2	2.1
Trois-Rivières	2.8	5.2	0.7	1.2
Montréal	22.7	32.2	2.1	3.8
Ottawa - Gatineau (Quebec part)	10	19	1.6	2.8
Rest of Quebec	1.9	3.2	0.3	0.5
Ottawa - Gatineau (Ontario part)	22.7	28.2	2.6	3.8
Kingston	11.8	12	0.9	1.6
Peterborough	8.3	7.4	0.4	0.7
Oshawa	16.1	17.4	1.2	1.5
Toronto	46	50	2.8	4.1
Hamilton	23.6	26.5	2.2	3.1
St. Catharines - Niagara	16.9	17	1.6	2
Kitchener - Cambridge - Waterloo	23.3	29	2.3	3.6
Brantford	11.4	9.8	0.5	0.8
Guelph	19.7	22.3	1.6	2.5
London	18.8	21.1	1.9	2.8
Windsor	22.4	27.7	2.1	3.3
Barrie	12.2	12.9	1.1	1.3
Greater Sudbury	6.3	4.9	0.5	0.7
Thunder Bay	9.3	7.5	0.5	1
Rest of Ontario	8	7	0.5	0.7
Winnipeg	20.7	37.9	2.6	8.7
Rest of Manitoba	8.2	15.8	3	4.7
Regina	10.5	32.6	3	13.6
Saskatoon	10.7	29	2.7	12.3
Rest of Saskatchewan	3.7	11.5	1.8	5.8
Calgary	26.2	38.6	2.2	5.9
Edmonton	20.5	31.7	2.1	5.6
Rest of Alberta	8	13.5	1.3	3.4
Kelowna	13.8	16.8	1	2.1
Vancouver	40	46.5	1.9	4.4
Victoria	17.9	19.9	1.1	2.4
Abbotsford - Mission	23.5	30.1	1.6	3.4
Rest of British Columbia	11.4	11.7	0.8	1.4
Territories	6.8	11.7	1.1	3.3
Sources: Statistics Canada, 2011 National Household Survey (adjusted) and Demosim 2017.

Between 2011 and 2036, the proportion of immigrants in the population of most regions would increase according to all the projection scenarios. As in 2011, the proportion of immigrants in the Atlantic regions, Quebec (outside Montréal) and in non-CMA regions would be lower than the Canadian average in 2036. However, in all these areas, except for the rest of Ontario (in all scenarios) and the rest of British Columbia (in one scenario), the proportion of immigrants would be higher than the estimated proportion in 2011.

At the end of the projection period, the five CMAs with the highest proportions of immigrants in their populations would be Toronto (between 46.0% and 52.8%), Vancouver (between 42.1% and 48.5%), Calgary (between 32.7% and 40.8%), Montréal (between 28.4% and 34.2%) and Winnipeg (between 29.2% and 40.5%). For all these regions, with the exception of Toronto in the low-immigration scenario (in which it would remain stable), the proportion of immigrants in the population would increase in 25 years.

According to the projection results, many areas could see their proportion of immigrants increase or decrease, depending on the scenario considered: Kingston, Oshawa, Hamilton, St. Catharines – Niagara, London, Barrie, Greater Sudbury, Victoria and the rest of British Columbia.

The proportion of immigrants in the populations of Regina and Saskatoon would especially be influenced by where immigrants settle upon their arrival in Canada. It could either increase very slightly if the geographic distribution of immigrants during the projection were similar to the estimate between 2000 and 2005, or almost triple if it were similar to the estimate between 2010 and 2015.

According to all the scenarios, the proportion of immigrants in Winnipeg’s population would increase particularly rapidly between 2011 (20.7%) and 2036 (between 29.2% and 40.5%). This proportion would increase more slowly if the geographic distribution of immigrants upon arrival in Canada were similar to the estimate between 2000 and 2005, and much more quickly if it were similar to the estimate between 2010 and 2015.

In all scenarios, the proportion of immigrants would be lower in Brantford, Peterborough, Greater Sudbury, Thunder Bay and the rest of Ontario by 2036.

Comparisons with the reference scenario reveal that the scenarios with an alternative geographic distribution of immigrants between the provinces and territories—as opposed to scenarios with a different total number of immigrants at the national level—have the greatest effect on the projected proportion of immigrants in Prince Edward Island, New Brunswick, the Prairie provinces and the territories, although differences may also exist at the regional level.

The immigrant population would continue to grow in absolute number in all provinces and territories according to all scenarios, but the rate of increase would slow down (for the Atlantic provinces, the Prairie provinces and the territories) or accelerate (Ontario) substantially if the geographic distribution of immigrants upon their arrival in Canada was similar to what was observed in the early 2000s. For British Columbia, the immigration level in Canada would actually be the factor with the greatest impact on how quickly the number of immigrants would increase, rather than where immigrants settle upon arrival. In Quebec, it would be more the share of immigrants that the province would receive out of the Canadian total than the volume of immigrants admitted to Canada that would have the greatest influence on the speed of growth of the number of immigrants.

The evolving composition of the immigrant population by continent of birth

As noted earlier, the portrait of the immigrant population has changed a great deal over the past 25 years, mostly because of differences in the geographic origin of immigrants. In 1986, 62.2% of immigrants living in Canada were born in Europe and only 18.4% were born in Asia. In 2011, the portrait was very different, with people born in Asia (Chinese, Indian and Filipino being the three main groups) accounting for most of the immigrants living in Canada (44.8%), while immigrants born in Europe represented no more than 31.6% of the total (Figure 9). Furthermore, the proportion of immigrants from Africa also rose between 1986 and 2011 (from 2.3% to 7.2%).

Description for Figure 9

Data table for figure 9
Distribution (in percent) of immigrants living in Canada by region of birth, 2011 (estimated) and 2036 (projected according to six scenarios)
Table summary
This table displays the results of Distribution (in percent) of immigrants living in Canada by region of birth. The information is grouped by Region of birth (appearing as row headers), Estimated, Projected, Minimum in 2036 and Maximum in 2036, calculated using percent units of measure (appearing as column headers).

Region of birth	Estimated	Projected
		Minimum in 2036	Maximum in 2036
	percent
North America	3.9	2.9	3.2
Central America	2.2	2.3	2.5
Caribbean and Bermuda	5.2	4.1	4.9
South America	4.3	4.3	4.8
Western Europe	5.9	3.2	3.6
Eastern Europe	7.5	5.2	6.4
Northern Europe	9.0	4.0	4.5
Southern Europe	9.2	3.0	3.7
Western Africa	1.1	2.1	2.5
Eastern Africa	2.3	2.6	3.1
Northern Africa	2.7	4.4	4.6
Central Africa	0.5	1.0	1.1
Southern Africa	0.6	0.6	0.6
West Central Asia and the Middle East	6.7	9.5	11.0
Eastern Asia	14.2	14.0	15.0
Southeast Asia	10.7	13.6	15.2
Southern Asia	13.2	17.5	18.5
Oceania and others	0.8	0.7	0.9
Sources: Statistics Canada, 2011 National Household Survey (adjusted) and Demosim 2017.

The results of the projections indicate that the transformations in the composition of the immigrant population by region of birth would continue over the next 25 years. In 2036, between 55.7% and 57.9% of immigrants would be born in Asia—mainly in China, India and the Philippines—while between 15.4% and 17.8% would be born in Europe. This would be a reversal of the situation observed in 1986. The proportion of immigrants from Africa would continue to increase to between 11.0% and 11.9% in 2036.

Close to one in five people would be second generation in 2036

The second-generation population, or non-immigrants with at least one parent born abroad (Box 2), also plays a role making the Canadian population a diverse one. This role was extensively analyzed in the Projections of the Diversity of the Canadian Population, 2006 to 2031 (Statistics Canada 2010). This population was close to 6 million in 2011.

Over the next 25 years, according to all the scenarios used, this population would increase to between 8.1 million (low-immigration scenario) and 8.9 million (high-immigration scenario) by 2036. It would represent nearly one in five people in 2036 in all scenarios, up from 2011 (17.5%). The increase would be strongly tied to higher demographic weight of the immigrant population.

In 2011, 55% of the second-generation population had two parents born abroad (compared with 45% with only one parent born abroad). Based on all scenarios, this proportion would increase in 2036 to between 58.8% and 62.4%. One of the underlying factors of this increase would be the replacement of older cohorts, who are more likely to have only one parent born abroad, by cohorts more likely to have two parents born abroad (Figure 10). This process which was already under way in 2011 and is associated with a likelihood to enter into exogamous unions, would continue until 2036.

Description for Figure 10

Data table for figure 10
Age and sex structure of the second-generation population, Canada, 2011 (estimated) and 2036 (projected according to the reference scenario)

Table summary
This table displays the results of Age and sex structure of the second-generation population. The information is grouped by Age (appearing as row headers), 2011, 2036, Males, Females, Two parents born abroad and One parent born abroad, calculated using thousands units of measure (appearing as column headers).

Age	2011				2036
	Males		Females		Males		Females
	Two parents born abroad	One parent born abroad	Two parents born abroad	One parent born abroad	Two parents born abroad	One parent born abroad	Two parents born abroad	One parent born abroad
	thousands
0 year	40	21	37	21	69	34	66	32
1 year	39	21	37	20	68	33	65	31
2 years	39	21	36	19	67	32	64	31
3 years	37	20	37	19	65	32	63	30
4 years	35	19	34	18	65	31	62	30
5 years	34	20	32	18	64	31	61	29
6 years	33	18	31	18	63	31	60	29
7 years	31	19	29	18	62	30	59	29
8 years	30	18	28	17	61	30	58	28
9 years	31	18	28	17	60	29	57	28
10 years	30	18	28	18	58	29	56	27
11 years	29	18	27	17	57	28	55	27
12 years	28	19	27	17	57	28	53	27
13 years	29	18	27	18	55	27	52	26
14 years	29	20	27	18	54	27	51	26
15 years	31	21	29	19	52	27	50	25
16 years	30	21	30	19	51	26	49	25
17 years	30	21	27	21	50	25	47	24
18 years	28	21	27	21	48	25	46	23
19 years	28	22	27	20	47	24	44	23
20 years	26	21	25	21	45	23	43	22
21 years	24	21	25	21	43	23	41	22
22 years	24	19	23	20	42	23	40	22
23 years	22	19	21	19	41	22	39	21
24 years	21	20	21	18	40	21	38	21
25 years	20	20	20	19	39	20	36	20
26 years	22	19	21	19	38	20	36	19
27 years	21	18	20	18	37	20	35	19
28 years	23	19	22	19	36	19	35	19
29 years	22	19	21	18	34	19	33	18
30 years	24	18	21	18	32	19	31	18
31 years	24	18	21	18	31	18	29	17
32 years	23	16	21	17	30	18	28	17
33 years	23	17	21	17	29	17	27	17
34 years	24	17	22	16	29	17	26	16
35 years	23	17	21	16	28	17	26	16
36 years	23	16	20	16	27	17	26	17
37 years	21	15	20	16	26	17	25	16
38 years	20	15	19	14	27	17	25	16
39 years	21	16	19	15	27	18	26	17
40 years	22	16	21	15	28	19	27	17
41 years	21	14	20	14	28	19	27	18
42 years	21	14	20	14	27	19	26	19
43 years	21	13	19	14	26	19	25	20
44 years	20	13	20	14	25	19	25	19
45 years	21	15	19	14	23	19	23	19
46 years	21	15	20	16	23	19	23	19
47 years	21	16	20	15	21	18	21	18
48 years	22	16	21	16	20	17	19	18
49 years	22	15	20	15	19	18	19	17
50 years	21	15	21	15	19	18	19	17
51 years	21	15	20	16	20	17	19	17
52 years	20	16	19	15	20	17	19	17
53 years	18	15	17	15	20	17	20	17
54 years	16	15	15	15	20	17	19	17
55 years	14	16	14	16	21	17	20	16
56 years	12	16	13	15	21	16	20	17
57 years	12	17	11	17	21	15	19	16
58 years	9	16	9	16	21	15	20	15
59 years	8	16	8	16	21	15	20	15
60 years	7	16	6	16	21	15	20	15
61 years	6	17	6	17	21	14	19	15
62 years	5	18	5	17	19	14	18	14
63 years	5	19	5	20	18	14	17	14
64 years	5	18	5	19	18	14	18	14
65 years	5	13	5	14	19	14	18	14
66 years	5	13	5	14	19	13	18	13
67 years	5	13	5	14	18	13	18	13
68 years	6	13	5	14	18	12	17	12
69 years	5	12	6	13	18	12	17	12
70 years	6	11	6	12	17	12	17	12
71 years	7	11	7	12	18	13	18	13
72 years	7	11	8	12	18	13	17	14
73 years	7	11	8	11	18	13	18	14
74 years	8	10	8	11	18	12	17	13
75 years	8	10	9	11	17	12	18	13
76 years	9	9	10	11	16	12	17	13
77 years	8	8	10	10	15	12	16	13
78 years	9	8	11	11	14	11	14	13
79 years	10	8	12	10	11	11	12	12
80 years	10	7	12	9	10	11	11	12
81 years	9	6	12	8	8	11	10	12
82 years	8	6	11	8	8	10	8	12
83 years	8	5	10	7	6	10	6	12
84 years	7	5	10	6	5	9	6	11
85 years	6	4	9	7	4	8	4	10
86 years	5	3	9	5	3	8	4	10
87 years	5	3	8	5	3	8	3	10
88 years	4	2	7	4	2	7	3	10
89 years	3	2	7	4	2	7	3	10
90 years	3	1	6	3	2	5	2	7
91 years	3	1	5	2	1	3	2	5
92 years	2	1	4	2	1	3	2	5
93 years	1	0	4	1	1	2	2	4
94 years	1	0	3	1	1	2	1	3
95 years	1	0	2	1	1	1	1	3
96 years	0	0	2	1	1	1	1	2
97 years	0	0	1	0	0	1	1	1
98 years	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	1
99 years	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1
100 years	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
101 years	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
102 years	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
103 years	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
104 years	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
105 years	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
106 years	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
107 years	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
108 years	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
109 years	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
110 years and over	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Sources: Statistics Canada, 2011 National Household Survey (adjusted) and Demosim 2017.

More than one in two people in Toronto, Vancouver, Calgary and Abbotsford – Mission would be an immigrant or a second-generation individual in 2036

The results of the projections show that, when combined, the immigrant and second‑generation populations could represent between 44.2% (low-immigration scenario) and 49.7% (high-immigration scenario) of the entire Canadian population in 2036, up from 2011 (38.2%).

However, the proportion that these two populations combined would represent would remain very different from one region to the next at the end of the projection period (Figure 11). More than one in two people would be either an immigrant or a second‑generation individual in 2036, based on all scenarios, in Toronto (between 77.0% and 81.4%), Vancouver (between 69.4% and 74.0%), Calgary (between 56.2% and 63.3%) and Abbotsford – Mission (between 52.5% and 57.4%), up over 2011 in all cases. However, the immigrant and second-generation populations would represent less than 1 in 10 people in Saguenay (between 5.0% and 6.4%), in non-CMA parts of Newfoundland and Labrador (between 3.8% and 4.7%) and Quebec (between 6.5% and 7.6%). Some areas, including Victoria, St. Catharines – Niagara, Thunder Bay, Brantford, Peterborough, Greater Sudbury and the non-CMA parts of Ontario and British Columbia, would see this proportion decrease over the next 25 years in all scenarios.

Description for Figure 11

Data table for figure 11
Proportion of immigrants and second-generation people combined, Canada, 2011 (estimated) and 2036 (projected according to six scenarios)
Table summary
This table displays the results of Proportion of immigrants and second-generation people combined. The information is grouped by Region (appearing as row headers), Estimated, Projected - Reference scenario, Difference between the maximum and the reference scenario and Difference between the minimum and the reference scenario, calculated using percent units of measure (appearing as column headers).

Region	Estimated	Projected - Reference scenario	Difference between the maximum and the reference scenario	Difference between the minimum and the reference scenario
	percent
Toronto	74.1	79.7	1.7	2.7
Vancouver	65.6	72.7	1.4	3.3
Abbotsford - Mission	49.7	55.9	1.4	3.4
Hamilton	48.8	51.5	1.9	2.9
Calgary	48.0	61.4	1.9	5.2
Windsor	43.9	51.7	1.9	3.3
Kitchener - Cambridge - Waterloo	43.6	52.1	2.0	3.5
Ottawa - Gatineau (Ontario part)	42.8	50.7	2.3	3.8
Victoria	42.7	40.6	1.1	2.4
Edmonton	41.2	53.1	2.1	5.2
Guelph	41.2	45.2	1.5	2.5
Winnipeg	40.5	56.5	2.4	8.0
St. Catharines - Niagara	39.7	38.1	1.4	2.1
London	39.4	41.9	1.7	2.9
Canada	38.2	47.9	1.7	3.8
Oshawa	38.1	41.4	1.1	1.8
Montréal	37.8	53.6	2.0	3.9
Kelowna	35.8	35.4	1.0	2.3
Barrie	32.1	34.3	1.1	1.7
Rest of British Columbia	31.8	28.3	0.8	1.6
Thunder Bay	30.0	24.3	0.5	1.1
Brantford	29.6	27.2	0.5	1.2
Kingston	28.2	28.7	0.9	1.8
Saskatoon	25.1	43.4	2.7	12.5
Regina	24.9	45.3	2.9	13.7
Rest of Alberta	23.9	27.4	1.4	3.6
Peterborough	23.5	22.3	0.5	1.0
Rest of Ontario	22.1	21.4	0.5	0.9
Rest of Manitoba	21.3	27.6	3.2	5.2
Ottawa - Gatineau (Quebec part)	17.6	30.9	1.8	3.2
Greater Sudbury	17.6	16.8	0.5	0.9
Halifax	17.4	26.0	1.6	3.3
Rest of Saskatchewan	17.1	20.0	1.8	6.3
Territories	15.7	20.3	1.2	3.5
Prince Edward Island	11.4	25.3	2.2	9.6
Saint John	11.2	19.1	1.3	3.6
Moncton	10.6	16.9	1.3	4.1
Sherbrooke	10.6	16.7	1.3	2.5
Rest of New Brunswick	9.3	14.4	1.0	2.7
Rest of Nova Scotia	9.3	11.2	0.4	1.0
Québec	7.5	13.5	1.1	2.0
St-John's	6.7	12.1	1.0	1.8
Trois-Rivières	5.3	9.2	0.9	1.5
Rest of Quebec	4.4	7.2	0.4	0.7
Rest of Newfoundland and Labrador	2.6	4.3	0.3	0.5
Saguenay	2.3	6.0	0.5	1.0
Sources: Statistics Canada, 2011 National Household Survey (adjusted) and Demosim 2017.

These results for the size of the population of immigrants and their progeny born in Canada point to rapid changes in other aspects of the composition of Canada’s population. These changes are the subject of the next section.

Immigration and ethnocultural diversity of the population: languages, visible minority groups and religions

The arrival of many individuals born abroad affects not only population growth, but also the ethnocultural and ethnolinguistic composition of that population. As we have seen, the recent immigrant population comes mainly from non-European countries, and therefore has characteristics that are different from the rest of the population.

Among immigrants who settled in Canada between 2001 and 2011, more than three-quarters had a mother tongue other than English or French, over three-quarters were also members of a visible minority group and more than one-third reported a religion other than Christian. These proportions were all much lower for the population as a whole, as Figure 12 shows.

Description for Figure 12

Data table for figure 12
Proportion of the population with a mother tongue other than English or French, belonging to a visible minority group and with a religion other than Christian within the population of recent immigrants (2001 to 2011) and the total population, Canada, 2011
Table summary
This table displays the results of Proportion of the population with a mother tongue other than English or French. The information is grouped by Category (appearing as row headers), Recent immigrants
(2001 to 2011) and Total population, calculated using percent units of measure (appearing as column headers).

Category	Recent immigrants (2001 to 2011)	Total population
	percent
Mother tongue other than English or French	77.4	20.0
Belonging to a visible minority group	77.4	18.4
Non-Christian religion	34.6	8.8
Source: Statistics Canada, 2011 National Household Survey (adjusted).

This section gives a concise presentation of the results of a projection of certain dimensions of the ethnocultural diversity of Canada’s population (Box 3) and the role of immigration in future trends in this regard.

Languages

Immigration is a major vector of change in the language composition of the population. On account of the increase in the proportion of immigrants in the population in recent decades and because the majority of them have a mother tongue other than English or French at the time of arrival (Figure 12), we have observed an increase in the proportion of people with an other mother tongue. However, the resulting increase has been limited by the rapid integration to English and, to a lesser extent, to French of immigrants, their children and their grandchildren. Already as of the second generation, the mother tongue of only one in five people (one in three for the youngest, according to the 2011 NHS) is neither English nor French. Furthermore, adoption of the majority languages is mostly generalized by the third generation (97.9% in 2011).

In all scenarios used for these projections, the population with an other mother tongue^{Note 42} would see their numbers rise to between 10.7 million (low-immigration scenario) and 13.8 million (high-immigration scenario) by 2036. The members of this group would therefore represent between 26.1% and 30.6% of the Canadian population (Figure 13). By way of comparison, this proportion was 20.0% in 2011 and 15.1% 20 years earlier in 1991.

Description for Figure 13

Data table for figure 13
Population whose mother tongue is neither English nor French as a percentage of the population, Canada, 2011 (estimated) to 2036 (projected according to three scenarios)
Table summary
This table displays the results of Population whose mother tongue is neither English nor French as a percentage of the population. The information is grouped by Year (appearing as row headers), Reference, low-immigration and High immigration, calculated using percent units of measure (appearing as column headers).

Year	Reference	low-immigration	High immigration
	percent
2011	20.0	20.0	20.0
2016	22.0	22.0	22.0
2021	23.8	23.4	24.0
2026	25.6	24.3	26.2
2031	27.4	25.2	28.4
2036	29.1	26.1	30.6
Sources: Statistics Canada, 2011 National Household Survey (adjusted) and Demosim 2017.

As was the case in 2011, immigrants would make up the bulk of the other-mother-tongue population in 2036, with close to 70% in all scenarios. However, almost 40% of these other-mother-tongue immigrants would have adopted English or French as the language spoken most often at home, either alone or in combination with other languages.

This language integration would occur differently in Quebec and in Canada outside Quebec (Figure 14). In Quebec, French would be the language spoken most often at home by immigrants whose mother tongue is neither English nor French and who made a language transfer to or substitution for one of the two official languages. It is projected that between 34.0% and 34.1% of immigrants whose mother tongue is neither English nor French and who settled in Quebec would speak French most often at home in 2036, versus between 11.1% and 11.9% who would have adopted English. Immigrants born in North Africa, the Caribbean and Bermuda and in South America would make up just over 50% of the transfers to French projected for Quebec.

In the rest of the country, the vast majority of other-mother-tongue immigrants who made a language transfer would have adopted English as their language spoken most often at home. Transfers to French among these immigrants would remain very low.^{Note 43}

Description for Figure 14

Data table for figure 14
Distribution of the immigrant population whose mother tongue is neither English nor French by language spoken most often at home, Quebec, Canada outside Quebec and Canada, 2036 (projected according to nine scenarios)
Table summary
This table displays the results of Distribution of the immigrant population whose mother tongue is neither English nor French by language spoken most often at home. The information is grouped by Region and scenario (appearing as row headers), English and French or English and French and non-official language(s), English or English and non-official language(s), French or French and non-official language(s) and Non-official language(s) only, calculated using percent units of measure (appearing as column headers).

Region and scenario	English and French or English and French and non-official language(s)	English or English and non-official language(s)	French or French and non-official language(s)	Non-official language(s) only
	percent
Canada
Reference scenario	0.1	34.5	5.7	59.7
Minimum of the nine scenarios	0	0.6	0.2	1.5
Maximum of the nine scenarios	0	1.4	0.3	0.6
Quebec
Reference scenario	0.5	11.4	34.0	54.0
Minimum of the nine scenarios	0.0	0.3	1.2	0.6
Maximum of the nine scenarios	0.0	0.5	0.2	1.0
Canada outside Quebec
Reference scenario	0.1	38.5	0.7	60.7
Minimum of the nine scenarios	0.0	0.7	0.1	1.6
Maximum of the nine scenarios	0.0	1.6	0.3	0.7
Source: Statistics Canada, Demosim 2017.

In the non-immigrant population, the vast majority of people with an other mother tongue would belong to the second generation (between 83.1% and 85.5% in 2036, compared with 77.3% in 2011)^{Note 44}; in other words, at least one of their parents would have been born abroad. In all scenarios, approximately 70% of second-generation individuals would have English or French as their mother tongue, meaning that approximately 3 in 10 (between 29.0% and 30.4%) of these people would have a mother tongue other than English or French. This proportion would be up from 2011 (20.8%) given that this generation of descendants of mainly European immigrants is being progressively replaced by descendants of recent immigrants whose mother tongue is more likely to be neither English nor French. Most of this increase would take place outside Quebec. In addition, among the second-generation population with an other mother tongue, the vast majority (close to 90%) would be people whose two parents were born abroad.

Despite the linguistic integration of both the immigrant and the second-generation populations, the demolinguistic balance between English and French would be different by 2036, both in and outside Quebec. If we use the indicator of first official language spoken^{Note 45} (Table 4)—a concept whose definition of official language community is more inclusive than mother tongue or language spoken most often at home^{Note 46}—the percentage of French-speaking people in Canada is projected to decrease to between 20.2% and 20.9% of the population by 2036, compared with 22.9% in 2011. This decrease, which would occur both in Quebec (the proportion would reach between 82.0% and 83.0% in 2036 compared with 85.4% in 2011) and outside Quebec (between 3.0% and 3.6% in 2036 compared with 3.9% in 2011), would see an almost equivalent increase in the proportion of people whose first official language spoken is English, in all of the scenarios.

Some of these changes would stem from the growing share of newcomers in official language communities, combined with the fact that these immigrants predominantly adopt English. However, the demolinguistic dynamic leading to these changes comprises a number of other dimensions, such as including linguistic transitions, population aging and internal migration. Thus, immigration is obviously not the only factor at play. The results in Table 4 indicate that the demographic weight of the official language communities would hardly change compared with the reference scenario by 2036 in the event of an increase or decrease in immigration, a change in its geographic distribution or a return to an immigration involving birthplaces similar to those of the 2005-to-2010 period. Those scenarios, however, all assume a similar composition of newcomer cohorts from a language point of view.^{Note 47} Therefore, a change in this regard—depending on its magnitude—could affect the respective weights of the official language communities. The relationship between immigration and official language communities is analyzed in depth in the report Language Projections for Canada, 2011 to 2036 (Statistics Canada 2017b)^{Note 48} (Box 4).

In all cases, however, we would witness a diversification of the country’s official languages communities. In the French-language community, as defined on the basis of first official language spoken, the proportion of immigrants could more than double, to between 15.4% and 19.8%, by 2036, compared with 9.2% in 2011. This increase would be due to both the rapid growth of the immigrant population itself and the fact that the non-immigrant French-speaking population would see its growth come to halt and then reverse by the 2030s, particularly as a result of population aging and the incomplete transmission of French to the subsequent generations^{Note 49}. The proportion of immigrants would also be higher in the population whose first official language spoken is English, which is projected to be between 25.8% and 31.4% by 2036, compared with 22.8% in 2011. In both cases, an increase in the proportion of immigrants would also see more diverse characteristics of the official language communities.

Visible minority groups

In Canada, the concept of visible minorities is used primarily for application of the Employment Equity Act. This Act, which primarily aims to combat discrimination when hiring members of designated groups, including visible minority groups, has provisions relating to the representation of visible minorities in the labour force. For the purposes of implementing this Act, population censuses since 1996 have been collecting information on self-reported visible minority group. From 1996 to 2011, the proportion of Canadians who reported belonging to a visible minority group rose from 11% to 19%, largely because of overrepresentation of this population among immigrants.

According to the projection results, the population with visible minority status could more than double by 2036 to between 12.8 million (low-immigration scenario) and 16.3 million (high-immigration scenario), compared with 6.5 million in 2011 (Table 5). This increase would be more rapid than that of the rest of the population, and as a result, the population belonging to a visible minority group would represent a growing share of the total Canadian population. Between 31% and 36% of the population would belong to a visible minority group in 2036. This proportion would vary by generation status, totalling between 74% and 77% of the immigrant population, between 50% and 52% of the second‑generation population and between 3% and 4% of the third-generation or higher population.

Readers should be reminded that the visible minority population, like the rest of the population, is not homogeneous. It is made up of a number of groups that, defined for the purposes of the Employment Equity Act, are themselves diversified in many respects, in particular with regard to the proportion of people born in Canada or abroad. Among these groups, South Asian would remain the group with the largest population in 2036, with over 3 million in all the scenarios selected, followed by Chinese, Black and Filipino. If the overrepresentation of Arab, Filipino and West Asian immigrants in relation to their demographic weight in the total population were to continue, it could triple their population in Canada. These three groups were already among the ones with the most rapid increases in the country.

According to the projection results, the composition of immigration by country of birth would have a significant impact on the relative size of specific visible minority groups in the population at the end of the projection period. The share that the Southeast Asian, Korean and Japanese visible minority groups would represent in the total population in 2036 would be highest under the alternative composition scenario of immigration by country of birth based on the period from 2005 to 2010.

While immigration is a key determinant of the changes that have just been discussed, progeny born in Canada to members of a visible minority group is also a factor. In fact, it is projected that the number of births to people who belong to a visible minority group would continue to rise in the coming years, totaling between 36.3% and 43.4% of all births in 2036. These children, many of whom would be born to the cohorts of immigrants who settled in Canada in recent decades, would contribute to the increase in the relative share of people born in Canada within the visible minority population, which would rise to between 33.3% and 38.0% by 2036, versus 30.7% in 2011. These births would also be the main reason why the proportion of visible minorities would be higher among the youngest generations, totaling between 35.7% and 41.9% among people under the age of 15 (Figures 15a and 15b).

Description for Figure 15a

Data table for figure 15a
Age and sex structure of the population by visible minority status, Canada, 2036 (low-immigration scenario)
Table summary
This table displays the results of Age and sex structure of the population by visible minority status. The information is grouped by Age (appearing as row headers), Rest of the population: 68.8% of the population, Visible minority: 31.2% of the population, Males and Females, calculated using thousands units of measure (appearing as column headers).

Age	Rest of the population: 68.8% of the population		Visible minority: 31.2% of the population
	Males	Females	Males	Females
	thousands
0 year	126	121	83	79
1 year	127	121	83	79
2 years	128	122	83	80
3 years	130	123	84	80
4 years	130	125	84	80
5 years	133	126	84	81
6 years	135	128	85	81
7 years	137	130	85	81
8 years	139	132	86	81
9 years	142	134	87	82
10 years	144	136	87	84
11 years	146	138	88	83
12 years	147	140	88	83
13 years	148	141	89	84
14 years	150	142	90	85
15 years	150	143	90	85
16 years	151	144	90	85
17 years	150	143	90	85
18 years	151	143	90	85
19 years	151	142	91	85
20 years	150	142	92	86
21 years	151	143	93	87
22 years	150	143	92	88
23 years	151	144	93	88
24 years	150	144	93	89
25 years	150	143	92	90
26 years	151	146	93	91
27 years	154	146	94	94
28 years	152	146	94	95
29 years	151	143	93	96
30 years	147	139	93	95
31 years	146	138	92	94
32 years	145	138	92	93
33 years	144	137	91	93
34 years	145	138	92	93
35 years	146	137	92	94
36 years	151	142	94	96
37 years	152	145	92	95
38 years	156	150	93	96
39 years	162	153	94	98
40 years	170	161	97	99
41 years	176	168	97	100
42 years	178	172	96	99
43 years	181	176	95	99
44 years	186	182	94	99
45 years	189	185	92	97
46 years	189	185	92	98
47 years	182	179	89	96
48 years	177	174	87	95
49 years	177	173	86	93
50 years	181	176	85	91
51 years	182	178	85	91
52 years	178	177	83	91
53 years	178	174	82	89
54 years	176	173	80	88
55 years	178	175	79	87
56 years	176	171	78	84
57 years	170	168	74	81
58 years	168	165	71	79
59 years	167	166	69	77
60 years	167	165	69	76
61 years	166	164	67	74
62 years	160	159	65	70
63 years	161	160	64	68
64 years	164	162	63	66
65 years	170	170	62	66
66 years	168	169	60	63
67 years	165	167	59	61
68 years	165	167	55	58
69 years	167	172	53	56
70 years	175	180	54	55
71 years	188	193	52	55
72 years	194	200	50	52
73 years	192	201	47	49
74 years	188	198	44	47
75 years	188	198	43	45
76 years	181	194	41	43
77 years	174	188	37	40
78 years	167	183	34	36
79 years	159	177	32	34
80 years	150	167	29	32
81 years	142	162	27	30
82 years	131	152	24	27
83 years	119	140	21	24
84 years	107	130	19	22
85 years	99	121	17	20
86 years	88	113	16	19
87 years	79	105	14	17
88 years	71	97	12	15
89 years	64	90	10	13
90 years	47	70	9	11
91 years	36	57	7	9
92 years	29	48	5	7
93 years	22	40	4	6
94 years	16	31	3	4
95 years	12	24	2	3
96 years	8	18	1	3
97 years	5	13	1	2
98 years	4	10	1	1
99 years	2	7	0	1
100 years	2	5	0	1
101 years	1	3	0	0
102 years	1	2	0	0
103 years	0	1	0	0
104 years	0	1	0	0
105 years	0	0	0	0
106 years	0	0	0	0
107 years	0	0	0	0
108 years	0	0	0	0
109 years	0	0	0	0
110 years and over	0	0	0	0
Source: Statistics Canada, Demosim 2017.

Description for Figure 15b

Data table for figure 15b
Age and sex structure of the population by visible minority status, Canada, 2036 (high immigration scenario)
Table summary
This table displays the results of Age and sex structure of the population by visible minority status. The information is grouped by Âge (appearing as row headers), Rest of the population: 64.0% of the population, Visible minority: 36.0% of the population, Hommes and Femmes, calculated using milliers units of measure (appearing as column headers).

Age	Rest of the population: 64.0% of the population		Visible minority: 36.0% of the population
	Males	Females	Males	Females
	thousands
0 year	134	127	102	98
1 year	134	128	102	98
2 years	135	129	103	99
3 years	137	130	103	100
4 years	138	131	103	100
5 years	140	133	104	99
6 years	142	135	104	99
7 years	144	136	104	99
8 years	146	138	104	99
9 years	148	140	104	99
10 years	151	142	104	100
11 years	152	144	104	99
12 years	153	145	104	98
13 years	154	146	104	99
14 years	155	147	104	99
15 years	155	148	104	98
16 years	155	148	104	98
17 years	154	147	103	98
18 years	155	146	104	98
19 years	154	146	105	99
20 years	154	146	107	101
21 years	154	146	109	104
22 years	154	147	109	106
23 years	154	148	110	106
24 years	154	148	110	109
25 years	154	147	110	111
26 years	155	151	111	114
27 years	159	151	113	118
28 years	158	151	114	122
29 years	157	149	115	125
30 years	153	145	115	126
31 years	153	145	116	128
32 years	152	145	117	128
33 years	151	145	117	129
34 years	152	145	119	130
35 years	154	145	120	132
36 years	160	151	121	134
37 years	161	153	121	133
38 years	165	158	122	135
39 years	171	162	124	136
40 years	179	170	126	138
41 years	185	176	126	138
42 years	187	180	125	135
43 years	190	184	123	134
44 years	195	189	121	132
45 years	197	192	119	130
46 years	197	192	118	129
47 years	189	186	115	127
48 years	184	180	112	123
49 years	184	179	110	119
50 years	187	182	108	116
51 years	188	183	106	114
52 years	183	181	103	112
53 years	183	178	100	108
54 years	181	177	97	106
55 years	182	179	94	103
56 years	180	174	91	99
57 years	174	171	87	96
58 years	171	168	82	92
59 years	170	168	79	89
60 years	170	167	78	87
61 years	169	167	75	84
62 years	162	161	73	81
63 years	163	162	71	79
64 years	166	164	69	76
65 years	171	172	69	75
66 years	170	171	67	73
67 years	166	168	65	72
68 years	166	169	62	67
69 years	168	173	59	63
70 years	176	181	59	62
71 years	189	195	58	62
72 years	195	201	56	60
73 years	193	202	54	57
74 years	189	199	49	53
75 years	188	199	46	51
76 years	182	195	45	49
77 years	175	189	40	45
78 years	168	184	38	41
79 years	159	178	36	39
80 years	150	168	33	37
81 years	142	163	31	34
82 years	131	152	27	31
83 years	119	141	24	28
84 years	107	130	23	26
85 years	99	121	21	25
86 years	89	113	19	23
87 years	79	105	17	20
88 years	72	97	14	18
89 years	64	90	12	16
90 years	47	70	10	13
91 years	36	57	8	11
92 years	29	48	6	8
93 years	22	40	4	7
94 years	16	31	3	5
95 years	12	24	2	4
96 years	8	18	2	3
97 years	5	13	1	2
98 years	4	10	1	2
99 years	2	7	0	1
100 years	2	5	0	1
101 years	1	3	0	1
102 years	1	2	0	0
103 years	0	1	0	0
104 years	0	1	0	0
105 years	0	0	0	0
106 years	0	0	0	0
107 years	0	0	0	0
108 years	0	0	0	0
109 years	0	0	0	0
110 years and over	0	0	0	0
Source: Statistics Canada, Demosim 2017.

In 2036, among the working-age population (15 to 64 years)—a population of interest for application of the Employment Equity Act—between 34.7% and 39.9% would belong to a visible minority group. This is a sharp increase over 2011 (19.6%). While the youngest members of the working-age population would have a higher proportion of visible minority members, those aged 45 to 64 years would see the most rapid increase in this share. This is because this age group would see its many baby boomers^{Note 50} turn 65 by 2031, who would be largely replaced by cohorts that include larger proportions of recent immigrants and people belonging to a visible minority group. This proportion would remain below the national average for the 65-and-older population.

The proportion of the working-age population that belongs to a visible minority group would be up in all parts of the country, in all the scenarios used (Figure 16). It would remain lower outside CMAs and would be highest in regions where immigrants represent the largest percentage of the population. It would be over 40% in all scenarios in the CMAs of Toronto, Vancouver, Edmonton, Calgary, Winnipeg and Abbotsford – Mission, in 2036.

Description for Figure 16

Data table for figure 16
Proportion of the working-age population that belongs to a visible minority group by place of residence, Canada, 2011 (estimated) and 2036 (projected according to six scenarios)
Table summary
This table displays the results of Proportion of the working-age population that belongs to a visible minority group by place of residence. The information is grouped by Place of residence (appearing as row headers), Estimated, Projected - Reference scenario, Difference between the maximum and the reference scenario and Difference between the minimum and the reference scenario, calculated using percent units of measure (appearing as column headers).

Place of residence	Estimated	Projected - Reference scenario	Difference between the maximum and the reference scenario	Difference between the minimum and the reference scenario
	percent
Toronto	47.6	68.6	1.7	2.5
Vancouver	45.8	64.9	1.2	2.9
Calgary	27.4	51.9	1.9	5.3
Abbotsford - Mission	25.4	46.0	1.5	3.3
Ottawa - Gatineau (Ontario part)	22.5	40.9	2.3	3.4
Edmonton	22.2	45.5	2.0	5.5
Montréal	20.5	40.4	1.6	2.9
Winnipeg	20.1	50.9	2.5	8.9
Canada	19.6	38.3	1.7	3.6
Windsor	17.1	38.4	2.0	3.4
Kitchener - Cambridge - Waterloo	16.5	35.8	2.1	3.4
Hamilton	14.8	30.3	1.8	2.7
Guelph	14.3	30.2	1.6	2.6
London	13.4	25.6	1.8	2.9
Victoria	11.5	21.2	0.9	2.0
Saskatoon	11.4	39.6	2.5	12.5
Oshawa	11.3	26.2	1.0	1.4
Regina	10.7	43.2	2.9	14.4
Halifax	9.0	20.9	1.4	2.6
Ottawa - Gatineau (Quebec part)	8.6	24.7	1.6	2.8
St. Catharines - Niagara	7.3	17.1	1.7	2.1
Barrie	6.5	14.7	0.9	1.2
Kingston	6.4	12.2	0.8	1.5
Kelowna	6.3	14.9	0.6	1.4
Brantford	5.7	9.5	0.5	0.8
Rest of Alberta	5.5	15.5	1.3	3.3
Territories	5.3	13.3	1.2	3.4
Rest of British Columbia	4.6	9.1	0.5	1.0
Sherbrooke	4.5	11.5	1.1	2.0
Peterborough	3.7	6.5	0.4	0.6
Moncton	3.5	12.1	1.4	4.5
Saint John	3.5	14.3	1.6	4.4
Prince Edward Island	3.3	20.1	2.5	11.6
Québec	3.1	8.3	0.8	1.3
Thunder Bay	3.0	8.7	0.6	1.3
Rest of Manitoba	3.0	13.1	1.2	3.7
Greater Sudbury	2.9	5.6	0.6	0.7
St-John's	2.6	9.5	0.9	1.6
Rest of Saskatchewan	2.5	14.1	1.5	6.3
Trois-Rivières	2.4	8.2	0.9	1.3
Rest of Nova Scotia	2.3	5.2	0.2	0.5
Rest of Ontario	2.2	4.6	0.3	0.5
Rest of New Brunswick	1.8	7.6	0.9	2.3
Rest of Quebec	0.9	3.2	0.2	0.4
Saguenay	0.8	3.5	0.4	0.6
Rest of Newfoundland and Labrador	0.6	2.1	0.3	0.4
Source: Statistics Canada, 2011 National Household Survey (adjusted) and Demosim 2017.

The data in Figure 16 show that, in several regions, the increase in the proportion of people belonging to a visible minority group among the working-age population would be influenced more by where immigrants settle upon their arrival in Canada than by the total number of immigrants admitted at the national level. In 13 regions, the most unfavourable assumption to an increase in the proportion of visible minorities in the population aged 15 to 64 would be a similar geographical distribution of immigrants throughout Canada upon their arrival as in the early 2000s (alternative geographic distribution scenario based on the 2000-to-2005 period). Conversely, this same scenario would produce the strongest growth in the number of visible minority members aged 15 to 64 years in all Ontario CMAs, except Kingston, Brantford and Thunder Bay.

Religions^{Note 51}

The religious profile of the country’s population has undergone some profound changes in recent decades. In the 1981 Census, approximately 90% of Canadians self-identified as Christians. Thirty years later, in 2011, this proportion had decreased to 67%. During this period, the proportion of people with no religious affiliation rose from 7% to 24% and the proportion of people who reported a non‑Christian religion increased from 3% to 9%. While the trend toward disaffiliation among Christians—and Protestants in particular—has been a factor in the increase of the unaffiliated population, immigration from countries with diverse traditions will have played a large part in the increased proportion of people with a non-Christian religion.

According to the scenarios developed for these projections, these trends should continue until 2036 (Figures 17a and 17b). At that time, the proportion of Christians in the population would have continued to decline to between 52% and 56%. Protestants, who were in the majority until the mid-20th century, would then compose less than 14% of the population. Catholicism would remain the religion with the largest number of followers (between 12.2 million and 14.4 million), compared with 13.3 million in 2011. However, Catholics would account for only 29.2% to 32.8% of the population (compare with 38.8% in 2011).

Description for Figure 17a

Data table for figure 17a
Population of religious groups (no religious affiliation, Catholic, Protestant, Christian Orthodox and other Christian) as a percentage of the population, Canada, 2011 (estimated) and 2036 (projected according to seven scenarios)

Table summary
This table displays the results of Population of religious groups (no religious affiliation. The information is grouped by Year (appearing as row headers), No religious affiliation, Catholic, Protestant, Orthodox Christian, Other Christian , Maximum and Minimum, calculated using percent units of measure (appearing as column headers).

Year	No religious affiliation		Catholic		Protestant		Orthodox Christian		Other Christian
	Maximum	Minimum	Maximum	Minimum	Maximum	Minimum	Maximum	Minimum	Maximum	Minimum
	percent
2011	24.0	24.0	38.8	38.8	21.9	21.9	1.7	1.7	4.8	4.8
2016	26.8	25.3	37.5	36.6	19.8	19.3	1.7	1.7	5.7	5.4
2021	29.1	26.3	36.3	34.5	17.9	17.1	1.8	1.7	6.4	5.9
2026	31.1	27.1	35.1	32.6	16.4	15.2	1.8	1.6	7.1	6.4
2031	32.9	27.7	34.0	30.8	15.0	13.7	1.9	1.6	7.8	6.8
2036	34.6	28.2	32.9	29.1	13.7	12.3	1.9	1.6	8.4	7.2
Sources : Statistics Canada, 2011 National Household Survey (adjusted) and Demosim 2017.

Description for Figure 17b

Data table for figure 17b
Population of religious groups (Buddhist, Hindu, Jewish, Muslim, Sikh and other religions) as a percentage of the population, Canada, 2011 (estimated) and 2036 (projected according to seven scenarios)
Table summary
This table displays the results of Population of religious groups (Buddhist. The information is grouped by Year (appearing as row headers), Buddhist, Hindu, Jewish , Muslim, Sikh, Other religions, Maximum and Minimum, calculated using percent units of measure (appearing as column headers).

Year	Buddhist		Hindu		Jewish		Muslim		Sikh		Other religions
	Maximum	Minimum	Maximum	Minimum	Maximum	Minimum	Maximum	Minimum	Maximum	Minimum	Maximum	Minimum
	percent
2011	1.1	1.1	1.5	1.5	1.0	1.0	3.2	3.2	1.4	1.4	0.6	0.6
2016	1.3	1.2	1.8	1.8	1.0	1.0	4.0	3.9	1.6	1.6	0.6	0.6
2021	1.4	1.2	2.1	2.0	1.0	0.9	4.8	4.4	1.9	1.8	0.7	0.6
2026	1.5	1.2	2.4	2.2	1.0	0.9	5.6	4.8	2.1	2.0	0.7	0.6
2031	1.7	1.2	2.7	2.3	0.9	0.9	6.4	5.2	2.4	2.2	0.7	0.6
2036	1.8	1.3	2.9	2.5	0.9	0.9	7.2	5.6	2.7	2.3	0.7	0.6
Sources: Statistics Canada, 2011 National Household Survey (adjusted) and Demosim 2017.

The number of unaffiliated people would continue to increase and could represent between 28.2% and 34.6% of all Canadians in 2036. Insofar as the unaffiliated population is underrepresented among immigrants, the trend toward religious disaffiliation, among Protestants and Catholics born in Canada in particular, would be the main driver of this increase. By 2036, the unaffiliated population could be larger than the population of Catholic followers. Based on these projections, only a slowing of the trend toward disaffiliation (as suggested in the alternative religious mobility scenario using the trends from 1991 to 2001) would put Catholics ahead.

However, non-Christian religions would see the most rapid increase, their population doubling in almost all the scenarios selected from 2011 to 2036. Non-Christian religions combined would comprise between 13% and 16% of Canadians in 2036. Among them, the Muslim, Hindu and Sikh faiths, overrepresented among immigrants compared with their weight in the total population, would see a quicker increase in the number of their followers, although they would still represent only a modest share of the total Canadian population. Moreover, the population of Christians other than Catholics, Protestants and Orthodox Christians, which is also overrepresented among immigrants, could more than double.^{Note 52}

Immigration, combined with the trend toward disaffiliation, would thus contribute to the development of a more religiously diverse Canada in 2036. This diversity can be measured through the Pew Research Center’s Religious Diversity Index, which was adapted to the Canadian data for this projection exercise (Box 5). This index has a value of 0 when the entire population is part of the same group (lack of diversity) and a value of 10 when the population can be broken down evenly among the religious groups that compose it (maximum diversity). The index is used to compare religious diversity over time and from one region to another. The results are presented in Figure 18.

Description for Figure 18

Data table for figure 18
Religious Diversity Index by place of residence, Canada, 2011 (estimated) and 2036 (projected in seven scenarios)
Table summary
This table displays the results of Religious Diversity Index by place of residence. The information is grouped by Region (appearing as row headers), Estimated, Projected - Reference scenario, Difference between the maximum and the reference scenario and Difference between the minimum and the reference scenario, calculated using percent units of measure (appearing as column headers).

Region	Estimated	Projected - Reference scenario	Difference between the maximum and the reference scenario	Difference between the minimum and the reference scenario
	percent
Vancouver	7.4	7.7	0.2	0.1
Toronto	7.1	8.1	0.1	0.1
Calgary	6.7	7.5	0.0	0.1
Edmonton	6.3	7.3	0.1	0.1
Rest of British Columbia	6.3	6.3	0.2	0.1
Territories	5.3	6.1	0.0	0.2
Rest of Alberta	5.3	6.2	0.0	0.1
Ottawa - Gatineau	5.3	6.8	0.1	0.2
Manitoba	5.3	6.6	0.0	0.2
Rest of Ontario	4.9	6.3	0.0	0.2
Saskatchewan	4.8	6.6	0.0	0.3
Montréal	4.8	6.7	0.1	0.2
Nova Scotia	4.3	5.8	0.0	0.4
New Brunswick	3.1	5.3	0.0	0.6
Prince Edward Island	3.1	6.0	0.1	0.6
Rest of Quebec	2.0	4.4	0.0	0.8
Newfoundland and Labrador	1.5	4.3	0.0	0.9
Note: This figure presents the Religious Diversity Index for 17 regions in Canada. The index is on a scale of 0 to 10, where 0 refers to a complete lack of religious diversity (i.e., the entire population would have the same religion) and 10 indicates maximum religious diversity (i.e., the population is divided evenly among all the religious groups considered). Sources: Statistics Canada, 2011 National Household Survey (adjusted) and Demosim 2017.

The results in Figure 18 show that, based on the scenarios used in these projections, there would be greater religious diversity in all regions by 2036. This increase would stem from two primary factors that act together in most regions: an increase in the proportion of the population that did not report a religion and an increase in the proportion of the population that belongs to a non-Christian religion. While the first factor has more to do with the changes within the Canadian-born population and the second more to do with immigration, the two of them together lead to a decline in the proportion of the population that is Christian.

Religious diversification would be more pronounced in the regions that were the most homogeneous from a religious point of view in 2011, mainly the regions in eastern Canada (Quebec and Atlantic), where the vast majority of the population was Christian. In these regions, religious diversification of the population stems in large part from disaffiliation, and to a lesser extent, from an increase in the proportion of non-Christian religions. Despite this diversification, Quebec and Atlantic Canada would still have the lowest levels of religious diversity in Canada in 2036.

The situation would be different in the regions that were already more religiously diverse in 2011, particularly the Vancouver, Toronto, Calgary and Edmonton CMAs (all of which had a large proportion of immigrants in their populations in 2011). These regions would continue to become more diversified, particularly due to the rise in the proportion of persons reporting a non-Christian religion. At the end of the projection period, these four CMAs would remain the most religiously diverse.

The rest of British Columbia—in other words the entire province outside Vancouver—is an exception in that the Religious Diversity Index would remain relatively stable (very slight increase) by 2036. In 2011, this region had the highest proportions of people who reported having no religion in the country (47%). The proportion of individuals with a non-Christian religion would be up, as would people who reported having no religion. As the population with no religion becomes the majority, the increase in its weight would become a homogenizing factor, thus running counter to the increase in the proportion of non-Christian people.

Overview of the provinces, territories and census metropolitan areas

This section presents a selection of indicators that summarize the key results for each region in the projection. These indicators are presented by province and by selected region (Montréal, Toronto, Vancouver and a region comprising the three territories) in tables and figures and include a brief description. This section complements the main analytical section in this report, which comprises multiple interregional comparisons. Readers interested in more projection results on the impacts of various aspects of immigration on the composition of the population and an analysis of the factors involved in the changes they could undergo in the coming years are invited to consult the previous section. They can also refer to the appendices in this document.

In this section, the results presented cover only the seven scenarios analyzed in the report. At the regional level, it is quite frequent for the scenarios presented only in the appendix—especially the alternative internal migration scenarios—to have values outside the ranges shown in this section. However, in the vast majority of cases, this only very slightly extends the range of results and therefore does not affect the broad conclusions.

Newfoundland and Labrador

• In 2011, immigrants represented 1.8% of the total population of Newfoundland and Labrador. In 2036, this proportion would increase to between 3.1% and 4.6% of the province’s population, far below the Canadian average (between 24.5% and 30.0%). The increase in the proportion of immigrants would be influenced almost as much by where immigrants settle upon their arrival in Canada as by the change in the number of immigrants at the national level.
• At the end of the projection period, between 39.2% and 44.4% of immigrants of Newfoundland and Labrador would be of Asian origin, while European immigrants would represent between 22.7% and 26.0% of the immigrant population. The main birthplaces of immigrants at the end of the projection period would be Northern Europe and South Asia.
• Despite an increase in all the diversity indicators by 2036, Newfoundland and Labrador would remain the least diversified Canadian province from an ethnocultural standpoint, at least according to the indicators used.
• The St. John’s CMA would be home to the majority of the province’s immigrants at the end of the projection period (between 75.4% and 76.2%), as was observed in 2011 (64.8%).

Description for Figure 19

Data table for figure 19
Immigrant population by continent of birth and place of residence, Newfoundland and Labrador, 2011 (estimated) and 2036 (projected according to six scenarios)
Table summary
This table displays the results of Immigrant population by continent of birth and place of residence. The information is grouped by Region / Scenario (appearing as row headers), Americas, Europe, Asia, Africa and Oceania and others, calculated using thousands units of measure (appearing as column headers).

Region / Scenario	Americas	Europe	Asia	Africa	Oceania and others
	thousands
St-John's
2011 Estimated	1	3	2	0	0
2036 Reference	2	3	6	2	0
2036 low-immigration	2	2	4	2	0
2036 High immigration	2	3	7	2	0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2005/2010	2	2	5	2	0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2000/2005	2	2	5	2	0
2036 Alternative immigration composition	3	3	6	2	0
Rest of Newfoundland and Labrador
2011 Estimated	1	2	1	0	0
2036 Reference	1	1	1	1	0
2036 low-immigration	1	1	1	0	0
2036 High immigration	1	2	2	1	0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2005/2010	1	1	1	0	0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2000/2005	1	1	1	0	0
2036 Alternative immigration composition	1	2	1	1	0
Sources: Statistics Canada, 2011 National Household Survey (adjusted) and Demosim 2017.

Prince Edward Island

• In 2011, 5.1% of Prince Edward Island’s population was composed of immigrants, a proportion far below the Canadian average (20.7%). By 2036, this proportion would increase in all scenarios to between 7.9% and 19.5% of the population. The increase in the proportion of immigrants would be influenced more by where immigrants settle upon their arrival in Canada than by the change in the number of immigrants at the national level.
• In 2036, between 55.9% and 73.9% of the province’s immigrants would come from Asia, while immigrants from Europe would account for between 15.3% and 25.8% of the immigrant population. The main birthplaces of immigrants would be Eastern Asia, West Central Asia and the Middle East.
• Although the ethnocultural diversity of Prince Edward Island’s population would increase between 2011 and 2036 according to all the indicators analyzed, the province would continue to be one of the least diversified among all Canadian provinces at the end of the projection period.

Description for Figure 20

Data table for figure 20
Immigrant population by continent of birth, Prince Edward Island, 2011 (estimated) and 2036 (projected according to six scenarios)
Table summary
This table displays the results of Immigrant population by continent of birth. The information is grouped by Region / Scenario (appearing as row headers), Americas, Europe, Asia, Africa and Oceania and others, calculated using thousands units of measure (appearing as column headers).

Region / Scenario	Americas	Europe	Asia	Africa	Oceania and others
	thousands
2011 Estimated	2	3	3	0	0
2036 Reference	2	5	21	1	0
2036 low-immigration	2	4	14	1	0
2036 High immigration	2	5	25	1	0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2005/2010	2	4	17	1	0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2000/2005	2	3	7	0	0
2036 Alternative immigration composition	3	5	20	1	0
Sources: Statistics Canada, 2011 National Household Survey (adjusted) and Demosim 2017.

Nova Scotia

• In 2011, Nova Scotia’s immigrant population represented 5.3% of the total population, a proportion well below the Canadian average (20.7%). By 2036, the proportion of immigrants in the province’s population would rise to between 7.7% and 10.7%. The increase in the proportion of immigrants would be influenced both by where immigrants settle upon their arrival in Canada and by the change in the number of immigrants at the national level.
• In 2036, between 38.4% and 41.7% of the province’s immigrants would come from Asia, while immigrants from Europe would account for no more than 27.1% to 29.1% of the immigrant population. The main birthplaces of immigrant would be Northern Europe, and West and Central Asia and the Middle East.
• As with the other Atlantic provinces, Nova Scotia would see greater ethnocultural diversity by 2036, according to all the diversity indicators analyzed. However, it would still be less diversified than the Canadian average in 2036.
• As in 2011 (64.9%), Halifax would be the place of residence of the majority of immigrants living in Nova Scotia at the end of the projection period (between 74.7% and 76.3%).

Description for Figure 21

Data table for figure 21
Immigrant population by continent of birth and place of residence, Nova Scotia, 2011 (estimated) and 2036 (projected according to six scenarios)
Table summary
This table displays the results of Immigrant population by continent of birth and place of residence. The information is grouped by Region / Scenario (appearing as row headers), Americas, Europe, Asia, Africa and Oceania and others, calculated using thousands units of measure (appearing as column headers).

Region / Scenario	Americas	Europe	Asia	Africa	Oceania and others
	thousands
Halifax
2011 Estimated	6	12	12	3	0
2036 Reference	10	15	32	10	0
2036 low-immigration	8	12	23	8	0
2036 High immigration	11	17	36	12	0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2005/2010	10	15	31	10	0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2000/2005	9	13	25	8	0
2036 Alternative immigration composition	10	16	32	9	1
Rest of Nova Scotia
2011 Estimated	6	9	2	0	0
2036 Reference	6	9	4	2	0
2036 low-immigration	5	8	3	1	0
2036 High immigration	6	10	5	2	0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2005/2010	6	9	4	1	0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2000/2005	5	8	4	1	0
2036 Alternative immigration composition	6	10	4	1	0
Sources: Statistics Canada, 2011 National Household Survey (adjusted) and Demosim 2017.

New Brunswick

• In 2011, New Brunswick’s immigrant population represented 3.9% of the total population. By 2036, this proportion would increase to between 5.6% and 9.7%, still well below the Canadian average (between 24.5% and 30.0%). The increase in the proportion of immigrants would be influenced both by where immigrants settle upon their arrival in Canada and by the change in the number of immigrants nationally.
• At the end of the projection period, between 43.2% and 51.2% of the province’s immigrants would be from Asia, while immigrants from Europe would account for between 22.3% and 24.9% of the immigrant population. The main birthplaces of immigrants would be East Asia and Southeast Asia.
• Despite an increase in all diversity indicators by 2036, New Brunswick would remain one of the least ethnoculturally diverse provinces in Canada, at least according to the indicators used.
• As opposed to what has been observed in other provinces, the majority of New Brunswick’s immigrants (between 54.0% and 58.3% in 2036) would live outside the province’s CMAs. This proportion was 59.9% in 2011. In 2036, the Moncton and Saint John CMAs would each comprise one-fifth to one-quarter of the province’s immigrants in all projection scenarios.
• The proportion of immigrants in the populations of Moncton and Saint John would increase in all scenarios. In 2036, between 5.4% and 10.6% of the population of Moncton and between 7.1% and 12.0% of that of Saint John would be immigrants.

Description for Figure 22

Data table for figure 22
Immigrant population by continent of birth and place of residence, New Brunswick, 2011 (estimated) and 2036 (projected according to six scenarios)
Table summary
This table displays the results of Immigrant population by continent of birth and place of residence. The information is grouped by Region / Scenario (appearing as row headers), Americas, Europe, Asia, Africa and Oceania and others, calculated using thousands units of measure (appearing as column headers).

Region / Scenario	Americas	Europe	Asia	Africa	Oceania and others
	thousands
Moncton
2011 Estimated	2	2	2	1	0
2036 Reference	2	2	7	3	0
2036 low-immigration	1	2	4	2	0
2036 High immigration	2	2	8	3	0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2005/2010	2	2	5	2	0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2000/2005	1	1	3	2	0
2036 Alternative immigration composition	2	2	7	3	0
Saint John
2011 Estimated	1	2	2	0	0
2036 Reference	2	2	9	0	0
2036 low-immigration	1	2	6	0	0
2036 High immigration	2	2	11	0	0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2005/2010	2	2	7	0	0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2000/2005	1	2	5	0	0
2036 Alternative immigration composition	2	2	9	0	0
Rest of New Brunswick
2011 Estimated	7	6	3	1	0
2036 Reference	7	10	14	3	0
2036 low-immigration	6	7	10	2	0
2036 High immigration	7	11	16	3	0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2005/2010	6	8	12	2	0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2000/2005	5	6	8	2	0
2036 Alternative immigration composition	8	10	12	3	0
Sources: Statistics Canada, 2011 National Household Survey (adjusted) and Demosim 2017.

Quebec

• In 2011, the proportion of immigrants in the population of Quebec was 12.7%, or 8 percentage points below the Canadian average. In 2036, immigrants’ share would rise to between 17.8% and 22.4%. The increase in the proportion of immigrants in Quebec would be influenced more by the share of immigrants that Quebec would receive out of the Canadian total than by the total volume of immigrants admitted to Canada.
• The origin and composition—particularly the linguistic composition—of its immigrants sets Quebec apart from the other provinces. This is because Quebec is responsible for selecting its economic immigrants under the Canada-Quebec Accord Relating to Immigration and Temporary Admission of Aliens. In general, Quebec would continue to have the highest proportion of immigrants from Africa and the Americas of any province. In 2036, between 28.7% and 30.4% of immigrants residing in Quebec would be from Africa (compared with between 7.6% and 8.4% for Canada excluding Quebec) and between 21.6% and 22.4% from the Americas (versus 12.6% to 13.2% for Canada excluding Quebec).
• Overall, although all the diversity indicators analyzed point to greater ethnocultural diversity by 2036, Quebec would continue to be less diversified from an ethnocultural standpoint than Canada as a whole.
• In 2036, 19.1% to 22.4% of people would have neither English nor French as their mother tongue (12.9% in 2011) and 9.4% to 12.1% would report a non-Christian religion (5.6% in 2011). Among the population aged 15 to 64, between 24.4% and 28.5% would belong to a visible minority group in 2036 (11.2% in 2011).
• The Montréal CMA would continue to be the place of residence for the majority of the province’s immigrants. Close to 9 out of 10 immigrants in Quebec would live there in 2036, as in 2011.
• The projection results also show that the proportion of immigrants born in Africa would increase in all Quebec CMAs and that they would be the largest immigrant group in all these CMAs, except in the Montréal CMA (on par with Asian-born immigrants) and the Québec CMA (on par with immigrants born in Europe).

Montréal

• In 2011, the proportion of immigrants in the Montréal CMA was 22.7%. Between 2011 and 2036, this proportion would increase to between 28.4% and 34.2%. As with Quebec, the increase in the proportion of immigrants in the population of Montréal would be influenced more by the share of immigrants that Quebec would receive out of the Canadian total than by the total volume of immigrants admitted to Canada.
• At the end of the projection period, between 28.9% and 30.3% of immigrants in Montréal would be from Africa, between 29.6% and 30.3% from Asia, between 21.2% and 22.2% from the Americas and between 17.5% and 19.8% from Europe.
• In 2036, between 30.6% and 34.5% of people would have neither English nor French as their mother tongue (23.2% in 2011) and between 15.4% and 19.3% would report a non-Christian religion (10.6% in 2011). Among the population aged 15 to 64 between 37.5% and 42.0% would belong to a visible minority group in 2036 (20.5% in 2011).
• Of all regions in Quebec, the Montréal CMA would by far remain the most ethnoculturally diverse at the end of the projection period. It would be the only CMA in the province with a greater ethnocultural diversity than the Canadian average at the end of the projection period, according to the indicators used.

Description for Figure 23a

Data table for figure 23a
Immigrant population by continent of birth and place of residence, Quebec, 2011 (estimated) and 2036 (projected according to six scenarios) - Montréal
Table summary
This table displays the results of Immigrant population by continent of birth and place of residence. The information is grouped by Region / Scenario (appearing as row headers), Americas, Europe, Asia, Africa and Oceania and others, calculated using thousands units of measure (appearing as column headers).

Region / Scenario	Americas	Europe	Asia	Africa	Oceania and others
	thousands
2011 Estimated	196	264	256	163	1
2036 Reference	378	306	520	516	2
2036 low-immigration	313	260	428	409	2
2036 High immigration	419	334	578	580	3
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2005/2010	396	318	543	543	3
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2000/2005	379	306	520	515	2
2036 Alternative immigration composition	364	341	508	497	9
Sources: Statistics Canada, 2011 National Household Survey (adjusted) and Demosim 2017.

Description for Figure 23b

Data table for figure 23b
Immigrant population by continent of birth and place of residence, Quebec, 2011 (estimated) and 2036 (projected according to six scenarios) - Other regions of Quebec - part 1
Table summary
This table displays the results of Immigrant population by continent of birth and place of residence. The information is grouped by Region / Scenario (appearing as row headers), Americas, Europe, Asia, Africa and Oceania and others, calculated using thousands units of measure (appearing as column headers).

Region / Scenario	Americas	Europe	Asia	Africa	Oceania and others
	thousands
Rest of Quebec
2011 Estimated	13	25	6	5	0
2036 Reference	18	31	12	17	0
2036 low-immigration	16	27	10	14	0
2036 High immigration	20	33	14	19	0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2005/2010	19	32	13	18	0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2000/2005	18	31	12	17	0
2036 Alternative immigration composition	19	32	12	16	2
Québec
2011 Estimated	8	13	5	7	0
2036 Reference	14	20	9	20	0
2036 low-immigration	11	16	7	15	0
2036 High immigration	16	22	10	23	0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2005/2010	15	21	9	21	0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2000/2005	14	20	9	20	0
2036 Alternative immigration composition	16	22	9	18	0
Ottawa - Gatineau (Quebec part)
2011 Estimated	7	10	7	8	0
2036 Reference	19	14	19	29	0
2036 low-immigration	16	12	15	23	0
2036 High immigration	22	15	21	33	0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2005/2010	21	14	19	31	0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2000/2005	20	14	19	30	0
2036 Alternative immigration composition	19	15	18	27	0
Sources: Statistics Canada, 2011 National Household Survey (adjusted) and Demosim 2017.

Description for Figure 23c

Data table for figure 23c
Immigrant population by continent of birth and place of residence, Quebec, 2011 (estimated) and 2036 (projected according to six scenarios) - Other regions of Quebec - part 2
Table summary
This table displays the results of Immigrant population by continent of birth and place of residence. The information is grouped by Region / Scenario (appearing as row headers), Americas, Europe, Asia, Africa and Oceania and others, calculated using thousands units of measure (appearing as column headers).

Region / Scenario	Americas	Europe	Asia	Africa	Oceania and others
	thousands
Sherbrooke
2011 Estimated	4	4	2	3	0
2036 Reference	6	6	4	7	0
2036 low-immigration	5	5	3	5	0
2036 High immigration	6	6	5	8	0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2005/2010	6	6	5	7	0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2000/2005	6	6	4	7	0
2036 Alternative immigration composition	6	6	4	6	0
Trois-Rivières
2011 Estimated	1	1	0	1	0
2036 Reference	2	1	1	2	0
2036 low-immigration	2	1	1	2	0
2036 High immigration	3	2	1	3	0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2005/2010	3	2	1	3	0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2000/2005	2	1	1	3	0
2036 Alternative immigration composition	3	2	1	2	0
Saguenay
2011 Estimated	0	1	0	0	0
2036 Reference	0	1	1	2	0
2036 low-immigration	0	1	0	1	0
2036 High immigration	0	1	1	2	0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2005/2010	0	1	1	2	0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2000/2005	0	1	1	2	0
2036 Alternative immigration composition	0	1	0	1	0
Sources: Statistics Canada, 2011 National Household Survey (adjusted) and Demosim 2017.

Ontario

• In 2011, Ontario was the province with the largest proportion (28.5%) of immigrants in its population. In 2036, this proportion would increase to between 29.7% and 36.1%. The increase in the proportion of immigrants would be influenced both by where immigrants settle upon their arrival in Canada and by the change in the number of immigrants at the national level.
• In 2036, if the composition of immigration remained similar to what has been observed in recent periods, approximately three out of five immigrants—between 58.6% and 61.2%—would have been born in Asia, while fewer than one in five would be from Europe (between 15.3% and 17.8%). The main birthplaces of immigrants living in Ontario would be Southern Asia and Eastern Asia.
• As in 2011, Ontario would be the most diversified Canadian province in 2036, according to the ethnocultural indicators used. Between 2011 and 2036, all the diversity indicators would be up in all scenarios.
• In 2036, between 31.0% and 36.2% people in Ontario would have neither English nor French as their mother tongue (25.9% in 2011) and between 17.2% and 20.8% would report a non-Christian religion (12.3% in 2011). Among the population aged 15 to 64, between 42.4% and 48.2% would belong to a visible minority group in 2036 (26.5% in 2011).
• At the end of the projection period, between 73.4% and 74.5% of Ontario immigrants would be living in the Toronto CMA, compared with 70.1% in 2011.
• With the exception of Toronto, Ottawa – Gatineau (Ontario part), Kitchener – Cambridge – Waterloo and Windsor, all regions of Ontario would have a less diverse ethnocultural portrait than the Canadian average in 2036, according to the indicators used. Diversity would be lowest at the end of the projection period in Greater Sudbury, the rest of Ontario, Peterborough and Thunder Bay, as in 2011.

Toronto

• In 2036, Toronto would still be the Canadian CMA with the largest proportion of immigrants in all scenarios. At the end of the projection period, between 46.0% and 52.8% of its population would have immigrant status, compared with 46.0% in 2011. It would also remain the most diversified CMA in Canada in 2036, according to the indicators projected.
• At the end of the projection period, between 65.0% and 67.3% of immigrants in Toronto would be born in Asia, between 13.4% and 14.1% in the Americas and between 11.8% and 13.5% in Europe.
• In 2036, between 48.4% and 53.4% of people would have neither English nor French as their mother tongue (42.5% in 2011) and between 27.8% and 32.3% would report a non-Christian religion (22.2% in 2011). Among the population aged 15 to 64, between 66.1% and 70.2% would belong to a visible minority group in 2036 (47.6% in 2011).
• The Toronto CMA would continue to be the most ethnoculturally diverse region in Canada at the end of the projection period.

Description for Figure 24a

Data table for figure 24a
Immigrant population by continent of birth and place of residence, Ontario, 2011 (estimated) and 2036 (projected according to six scenarios) - Toronto
Table summary
This table displays the results of Immigrant population by continent of birth and place of residence. The information is grouped by Region / Scenario (appearing as row headers), Americas, Europe, Asia, Africa and Oceania and others, calculated using thousands units of measure (appearing as column headers).

Region / Scenario	Americas	Europe	Asia	Africa	Oceania and others
	thousands
2011 Estimated	417	690	1,390	142	7
2036 Reference	571	520	2,781	302	14
2036 low-immigration	486	465	2,238	244	12
2036 High immigration	615	548	3,064	333	16
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2005/2010	599	537	2,950	319	15
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2000/2005	646	566	3,239	348	16
2036 Alternative immigration composition	583	564	2,733	278	18
Sources: Statistics Canada, 2011 National Household Survey (adjusted) and Demosim 2017.

Description for Figure 24b

Data table for figure 24b
Immigrant population by continent of birth and place of residence, Ontario, 2011 (estimated) and 2036 (projected according to six scenarios) - Other Ontario regions - part 1
Table summary
This table displays the results of Immigrant population by continent of birth and place of residence. The information is grouped by Region / Scenario (appearing as row headers), Americas, Europe, Asia, Africa and Oceania and others, calculated using thousands units of measure (appearing as column headers).

Region / Scenario	Americas	Europe	Asia	Africa	Oceania and others
	thousands
Ottawa - Gatineau (Ontario part)
2011 Estimated	34	62	92	27	1
2036 Reference	57	47	170	68	1
2036 low-immigration	46	42	136	53	1
2036 High immigration	63	49	188	76	2
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2005/2010	60	48	180	72	2
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2000/2005	66	50	196	79	2
2036 Alternative immigration composition	55	50	165	62	2
Hamilton
2011 Estimated	22	96	47	9	1
2036 Reference	38	73	104	22	1
2036 low-immigration	31	66	84	17	1
2036 High immigration	41	76	114	24	2
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2005/2010	40	75	109	23	2
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2000/2005	43	78	119	25	2
2036 Alternative immigration composition	39	77	101	20	2
Kitchener - Cambridge - Waterloo
2011 Estimated	17	55	36	6	0
2036 Reference	26	43	93	20	1
2036 low-immigration	22	39	73	15	1
2036 High immigration	28	45	103	22	1
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2005/2010	27	44	98	20	1
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2000/2005	29	46	107	22	1
2036 Alternative immigration composition	27	46	91	18	1
London
2011 Estimated	16	45	26	4	0
2036 Reference	26	29	52	8	1
2036 low-immigration	21	26	41	7	1
2036 High immigration	29	30	58	9	1
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2005/2010	28	29	55	9	1
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2000/2005	30	30	60	10	1
2036 Alternative immigration composition	29	30	52	8	1
Sources: Statistics Canada, 2011 National Household Survey (adjusted) and Demosim 2017.

Description for Figure 24c

Data table for figure 24c
Immigrant population by continent of birth and place of residence, Ontario, 2011 (estimated) and 2036 (projected according to six scenarios) - Other Ontario regions - part 2
Table summary
This table displays the results of Immigrant population by continent of birth and place of residence. The information is grouped by Region / Scenario (appearing as row headers), Americas, Europe, Asia, Africa and Oceania and others, calculated using thousands units of measure (appearing as column headers).

Region / Scenario	Americas	Europe	Asia	Africa	Oceania and others
	thousands
Windsor
2011 Estimated	11	31	28	4	0
2036 Reference	17	20	56	12	0
2036 low-immigration	14	19	45	9	0
2036 High immigration	18	21	61	14	0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2005/2010	18	20	58	13	0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2000/2005	20	21	62	14	0
2036 Alternative immigration composition	17	21	53	11	0
St. Catharines - Niagara
2011 Estimated	13	42	10	3	0
2036 Reference	16	23	21	7	1
2036 low-immigration	14	22	17	6	1
2036 High immigration	18	24	23	8	1
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2005/2010	17	24	22	8	1
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2000/2005	19	24	24	9	1
2036 Alternative immigration composition	16	24	20	7	1
Oshawa
2011 Estimated	13	31	12	2	0
2036 Reference	20	23	35	8	1
2036 low-immigration	18	22	30	7	1
2036 High immigration	21	24	38	9	1
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2005/2010	21	23	37	9	1
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2000/2005	22	24	39	9	1
2036 Alternative immigration composition	20	24	35	8	1
Guelph
2011 Estimated	3	13	11	1	0
2036 Reference	5	10	23	2	0
2036 low-immigration	5	9	19	2	0
2036 High immigration	6	10	25	3	0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2005/2010	6	10	24	3	0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2000/2005	6	10	25	3	0
2036 Alternative immigration composition	5	10	23	2	0
Sources: Statistics Canada, 2011 National Household Survey (adjusted) and Demosim 2017.

Description for Figure 24d

Data table for figure 24d
Immigrant population by continent of birth and place of residence, Ontario, 2011 (estimated) and 2036 (projected according to six scenarios) - Other Ontario regions - part 3
Table summary
This table displays the results of Immigrant population by continent of birth and place of residence. The information is grouped by Region / Scenario (appearing as row headers), Americas, Europe, Asia, Africa and Oceania and others, calculated using thousands units of measure (appearing as column headers).

Region / Scenario	Americas	Europe	Asia	Africa	Oceania and others
	thousands
Barrie
2011 Estimated	4	14	4	1	0
2036 Reference	8	15	13	3	0
2036 low-immigration	7	14	11	2	0
2036 High immigration	9	15	14	3	0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2005/2010	9	15	14	3	0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2000/2005	9	16	15	3	0
2036 Alternative immigration composition	8	15	13	3	0
Kingston
2011 Estimated	3	11	4	1	0
2036 Reference	4	7	8	1	0
2036 low-immigration	4	7	7	1	0
2036 High immigration	5	8	9	2	0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2005/2010	4	8	9	2	0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2000/2005	5	8	9	2	0
2036 Alternative immigration composition	4	8	8	1	0
Brantford
2011 Estimated	2	10	3	0	0
2036 Reference	3	6	5	1	0
2036 low-immigration	3	6	4	1	0
2036 High immigration	3	6	5	1	0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2005/2010	3	6	5	1	0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2000/2005	3	6	5	1	0
2036 Alternative immigration composition	3	6	5	1	0
Sources: Statistics Canada, 2011 National Household Survey (adjusted) and Demosim 2017.

Description for Figure 24e

Data table for figure 24e
Immigrant population by continent of birth and place of residence, Ontario, 2011 (estimated) and 2036 (projected according to six scenarios) - Other Ontario regions - part 4
Table summary
This table displays the results of Immigrant population by continent of birth and place of residence. The information is grouped by Region / Scenario (appearing as row headers), Americas, Europe, Asia, Africa and Oceania and others, calculated using thousands units of measure (appearing as column headers).

Region / Scenario	Americas	Europe	Asia	Africa	Oceania and others
	thousands
Thunder Bay
2011 Estimated	1	8	2	0	0
2036 Reference	1	3	4	0	0
2036 low-immigration	1	3	3	0	0
2036 High immigration	1	3	4	0	0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2005/2010	1	3	4	0	0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2000/2005	1	3	4	0	0
2036 Alternative immigration composition	1	3	4	0	0
Greater Sudbury
2011 Estimated	1	7	1	0	0
2036 Reference	1	3	2	1	0
2036 low-immigration	1	3	2	1	0
2036 High immigration	2	3	2	1	0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2005/2010	2	3	2	1	0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2000/2005	2	3	2	1	0
2036 Alternative immigration composition	1	3	2	1	0
Peterborough
2011 Estimated	2	6	2	0	0
2036 Reference	1	4	3	1	0
2036 low-immigration	1	4	3	0	0
2036 High immigration	1	4	4	1	0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2005/2010	1	4	3	1	0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2000/2005	2	4	4	1	0
2036 Alternative immigration composition	1	4	3	1	0
Sources: Statistics Canada, 2011 National Household Survey (adjusted) and Demosim 2017.

Manitoba

• In 2011, Manitoba’s immigrant population represented 15.7% of the total population. At the end of the projection period, this proportion would increase to between 22.4% and 32.6%. In 2036, the proportion of immigrants in Manitoba would be close to the Canadian average. The increase in the proportion of immigrants in Manitoba would be influenced more by where immigrants settle upon their arrival in Canada than by the change in the number of immigrants at the national level.
• At the end of the projection period, between 60.7% and 66.6% of Manitoba immigrants would be of Asian origin, while those from Europe would represent between 12.3% and 19.1% of the immigrant population. The main birthplaces of these immigrants would be Southeast Asia and Southern Asia.
• By 2036, according to all the diversity indicators used, there would be an increase in ethnocultural diversity in Manitoba in all scenarios. However, this increase would be much slower if the geographic distribution of immigrants upon their arrival in Canada over the next 25 years were similar to the estimate between 2000 and 2005.
• In 2036, the vast majority of immigrants in Manitoba would be concentrated in Winnipeg (between 77.1% and 81.8%), as in 2011 (79.5%).
• The proportion of immigrants in the population of Winnipeg would increase in all scenarios to between 29.2% and 40.5% in 2036 (20.7% in 2011), surpassing the Canadian average in all scenarios.

 

Description for Figure 25

Data table for figure 25
Immigrant population by continent of birth and place of residence, Manitoba, 2011 (estimated) and 2036 (projected according to six scenarios)
Table summary
This table displays the results of Immigrant population by continent of birth and place of residence. The information is grouped by Region / Scenario (appearing as row headers), Americas, Europe, Asia, Africa and Oceania and others, calculated using thousands units of measure (appearing as column headers).

Region / Scenario	Americas	Europe	Asia	Africa	Oceania and others
	thousands
Winnipeg
2011 Estimated	18	44	81	10	1
2036 Reference	28	37	299	51	1
2036 low-immigration	24	31	221	37	1
2036 High immigration	31	39	340	59	1
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2005/2010	26	34	253	43	1
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2000/2005	23	29	187	31	1
2036 Alternative immigration composition	31	47	271	41	2
Rest of Manitoba
2011 Estimated	14	17	7	1	0
2036 Reference	19	28	37	9	0
2036 low-immigration	15	22	26	6	0
2036 High immigration	21	31	43	10	0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2005/2010	17	24	31	7	0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2000/2005	14	20	22	5	0
2036 Alternative immigration composition	22	50	37	6	0
Sources: Statistics Canada, 2011 National Household Survey (adjusted) and Demosim 2017.

Saskatchewan

• In 2011, immigrants represented 6.9% of the population of Saskatchewan. By 2036, this proportion would increase to between 11.6% and 23.8%, still below the Canadian average. The increase in the proportion of immigrants would be influenced more by where immigrants settle upon their arrival in Canada than by the variation in the number of immigrants at the national level.
• At the end of the projection period, between 62.1% and 72.2% of immigrants in Saskatchewan would be of Asian origin, while immigrants from Europe would account for between 12.4% and 20.2%. As in the other Prairie provinces, the main birthplaces of immigrants to Saskatchewan would be Southeast Asia and Southern Asia.
• By 2036, according to all the diversity indicators used, there would be an increase in ethnocultural diversity in Saskatchewan in all scenarios. However, as in Manitoba, this increase would be much slower if the geographic distribution of immigrants upon their arrival in Canada throughout the projection were similar to the estimate between 2000 and 2005. At the end of the projection period, Saskatchewan would remain the least ethnoculturally diverse Prairie province.
• In 2036, Saskatchewan would continue to be one of the provinces where a significant proportion of immigrants would live outside a CMA. Close to one in four immigrants (between 25.5% and 30.1%) would live outside a CMA in 2036, compare to 29.2% in 2011.
• The proportion of immigrants in the Saskatoon and Regina CMAs could increase either very slowly or very rapidly (and even triple in 25 years), depending on the scenario. The rate of increase would depend largely on where immigrants settle in Canada upon their arrival.

Description for Figure 26

Data table for figure 26
Immigrant population by continent of birth and place of residence, Saskatchewan, 2011 (estimated) and 2036 (projected according to six scenarios)
Table summary
This table displays the results of Immigrant population by continent of birth and place of residence. The information is grouped by Region / Scenario (appearing as row headers), Americas, Europe, Asia, Africa and Oceania and others, calculated using thousands units of measure (appearing as column headers).

Region / Scenario	Americas	Europe	Asia	Africa	Oceania and others
	thousands
Saskatoon
2011 Estimated	3	7	16	2	0
2036 Reference	8	13	84	10	1
2036 low-immigration	6	10	59	7	0
2036 High immigration	9	14	97	11	1
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2005/2010	6	8	51	6	0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2000/2005	5	7	37	5	0
2036 Alternative immigration composition	10	22	73	10	1
Regina
2011 Estimated	3	6	12	2	0
2036 Reference	7	8	81	8	0
2036 low-immigration	5	7	58	6	0
2036 High immigration	7	9	94	9	0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2005/2010	5	6	49	5	0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2000/2005	4	5	35	4	0
2036 Alternative immigration composition	7	12	65	8	0
Rest of Saskatchewan
2011 Estimated	4	9	7	1	0
2036 Reference	7	16	46	7	0
2036 low-immigration	5	12	33	5	0
2036 High immigration	7	18	54	8	0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2005/2010	5	11	27	4	0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2000/2005	4	8	19	3	0
2036 Alternative immigration composition	8	27	47	8	1
Sources: Statistics Canada, 2011 National Household Survey (adjusted) and Demosim 2017.

Alberta

• In 2011, the proportion of immigrants in the Alberta population as a whole was 18.1%. This proportion was 2.6 percentage points lower than the Canadian average. By 2036, the proportion of immigrants would increase to between 23.6% and 31.0% of the province’s population. As with the other Prairie provinces, the increase in the proportion of immigrants would be influenced more by where immigrants settle upon their arrival in Canada than by the variation in the number of immigrants at the national level.
• At the end of the projection period, between 59.4% and 63.4% of immigrants in Alberta would be of Asian origin, while European immigrants would account for between 12.4% and 16.2% of the immigrant population. The main immigrant birthplaces would be Southeast Asia and Southern Asia.
• According to all the diversity indicators used, there would be an increase in ethnocultural diversity in Alberta in all scenarios by 2036. As in 2011, Alberta would remain the most ethnoculturally diverse Prairie province in 2036. Generally speaking, the ethnocultural diversity of Alberta would be very similar to the diversity projected for Canada at the end of the projection period.
• In 2036, between 25.5% and 31.6% of people would have neither English nor French as their mother tongue (19.1% in 2011) and between 12.5% and 15.5% would report a non-Christian religion (8.1% in 2011). Among the population aged 15 to 64, between 34.3% and 41.6% would belong to a visible minority group (18.3% in 2011).
• The vast majority of immigrants in Alberta would still be concentrated in the province’s two CMAs (between 86.1% and 86.7% in 2036, compared with 84.5% in 2011). In 2036, roughly half of all immigrants in Alberta would live in Calgary and approximately one-third in Edmonton.
• The proportion of immigrants in the populations of Calgary and Edmonton would increase in all scenarios. In 2036, Calgary’s population would have between 32.7% and 40.8% of immigrants and Edmonton’s between 26.1% and 33.8%.

Description for Figure 27

Data table for figure 27
Immigrant population by continent of birth and place of residence, Alberta, 2011 (estimated) and 2036 (projected according to six scenarios)
Table summary
This table displays the results of Immigrant population by continent of birth and place of residence. The information is grouped by Region / Scenario (appearing as row headers), Americas, Europe, Asia, Africa and Oceania and others, calculated using thousands units of measure (appearing as column headers).

Region / Scenario	Americas	Europe	Asia	Africa	Oceania and others
	thousands
Calgary
2011 Estimated	39	80	179	28	4
2036 Reference	96	106	601	96	8
2036 low-immigration	78	89	468	74	6
2036 High immigration	106	114	670	107	8
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2005/2010	83	93	493	79	7
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2000/2005	76	86	439	70	6
2036 Alternative immigration composition	104	132	573	89	8
Edmonton
2011 Estimated	27	66	126	23	4
2036 Reference	64	69	412	89	7
2036 low-immigration	52	59	316	69	6
2036 High immigration	71	74	462	100	8
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2005/2010	56	61	335	74	6
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2000/2005	52	57	295	66	5
2036 Alternative immigration composition	67	85	385	82	8
Rest of Alberta
2011 Estimated	26	45	26	7	2
2036 Reference	43	56	118	28	3
2036 low-immigration	35	47	87	21	2
2036 High immigration	47	60	135	31	3
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2005/2010	36	49	92	22	3
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2000/2005	33	45	78	19	2
2036 Alternative immigration composition	46	72	100	27	3
Sources: Statistics Canada, 2011 National Household Survey (adjusted) and Demosim 2017.

 

British Columbia

• In 2011, immigrants accounted for 27.5% of British Columbia’s population. By 2036, this proportion would increase to between 29.5% and 35.1%. The increase in the proportion of the province’s immigrants would be influenced more by the change in the number of immigrants at the national level than by where immigrants settle upon their arrival in Canada.
• In 2036, if the composition of immigration by country of birth remained similar to what has been observed recently throughout the projection, the proportion of immigrants of Asian origin in the immigrant population would be between 68.9% and 70.6%, while immigrants of European origin would represent between 14.6% and 16.0%. The main birthplaces of immigrants in this province at the end of the projection period would be Eastern Asia and Southeast Asia.
• As in 2011, British Columbia would remain one of the most diversified Canadian provinces in 2036 according to the ethnocultural indicators used. Between 2011 and 2036, all diversity indicators would be higher in all scenarios.
• In 2036, between 32.1% and 36.7% of people would have neither English nor French as their mother tongue (26.4% in 2011) and between 14.3% and 17.3% would report a non-Christian religion (11.2% in 2011). Among the population aged 15 to 64, between 42.0% and 46.9% would belong to a visible minority group (28.4% in 2011).
• In 2036, between 80.0% and 81.0% of all of the province’s immigrants would be living in Vancouver, a proportion similar to 2011 (76.5%).
• With the exception of Vancouver and Abbotsford – Mission, all regions in British Columbia would have a less diversified ethnocultural portrait than the Canadian average in 2036, according to the ethnocultural indicators used.

Vancouver

• In 2011, the proportion of immigrants in the Vancouver CMA was 40.0%. Between 2011 and 2036, it would increase to between 42.1% and 48.5%. As with British Columbia as a whole, the increase in the proportion of immigrants in Vancouver’s population would be influenced more by the change in the number of immigrants at the national level than by where immigrants settle upon their arrival in Canada.
• At the end of the projection period, between 76.7% and 77.8% of immigrants in Vancouver would be from Asia, while immigrants from Europe would represent between 10.2% and 11.1% of the immigrant population.
• In 2036, between 48.1% and 52.9% of people would have neither English nor French as their mother tongue (40.7% in 2011) and between 20.3% and 23.8% would report a non-Christian religion (16.9% in 2011). Among the population aged 15 to 64, between 62.0% and 66.2% would belong to a visible minority group (45.8% in 2011).
• Along with Toronto, Vancouver would remain one of the two most ethnoculturally diverse CMAs in Canada at the end of the projection period.

Description for Figure 28a

Data table for figure 28a
Immigrant population by continent of birth and place of residence, British Columbia, 2011 (estimated) and 2036 (projected according to six scenarios) - Vancouver
Table summary
This table displays the results of Immigrant population by continent of birth and place of residence. The information is grouped by Region / Scenario (appearing as row headers), Americas, Europe, Asia, Africa and Oceania and others, calculated using thousands units of measure (appearing as column headers).

Region / Scenario	Americas	Europe	Asia	Africa	Oceania and others
	thousands
2011 Estimated	63	180	650	29	24
2036 Reference	113	157	1,190	50	27
2036 low-immigration	93	135	962	41	23
2036 High immigration	122	168	1,308	54	29
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2005/2010	118	163	1,260	52	28
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2000/2005	115	159	1,214	50	28
2036 Alternative immigration composition	115	164	1,180	46	27
Sources: Statistics Canada, 2011 National Household Survey (adjusted) and Demosim 2017.

Description for Figure 28b

Data table for figure 28b
Immigrant population by continent of birth and place of residence, British Columbia, 2011 (estimated) and 2036 (projected according to six scenarios) - British Columbia regions
Table summary
This table displays the results of Immigrant population by continent of birth and place of residence. The information is grouped by Region / Scenario (appearing as row headers), Americas, Europe, Asia, Africa and Oceania and others, calculated using thousands units of measure (appearing as column headers).

Region / Scenario	Americas	Europe	Asia	Africa	Oceania and others
	thousands
Rest of British Columbia
2011 Estimated	28	98	26	5	4
2036 Reference	34	77	49	12	7
2036 low-immigration	30	69	40	10	6
2036 High immigration	37	81	55	13	7
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2005/2010	36	79	51	12	7
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2000/2005	35	77	49	12	7
2036 Alternative immigration composition	35	79	47	11	7
Victoria
2011 Estimated	10	32	18	3	1
2036 Reference	15	26	33	5	2
2036 low-immigration	13	24	27	4	2
2036 High immigration	16	28	36	6	3
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2005/2010	16	27	34	6	2
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2000/2005	15	26	33	5	2
2036 Alternative immigration composition	15	27	32	5	2
Abbotsford - Mission
2011 Estimated	4	10	25	1	1
2036 Reference	5	9	49	3	1
2036 low-immigration	4	8	39	2	1
2036 High immigration	5	9	53	3	1
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2005/2010	5	9	51	3	1
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2000/2005	5	9	49	3	1
2036 Alternative immigration composition	5	9	49	2	1
Kelowna
2011 Estimated	3	16	5	1	1
2036 Reference	7	18	14	2	1
2036 Low immigration	6	15	12	2	1
2036 High immigration	7	19	16	2	1
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2005/2010	7	18	15	2	1
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2000/2005	7	18	14	2	1
2036 Alternative immigration composition	7	18	14	2	1
Sources: Statistics Canada, 2011 National Household Survey (adjusted) and Demosim 2017.

Territories

• In 2011, the immigrant population accounted for 6.8% of the total population of the territories, which are populated largely by people of Aboriginal identity. In 2036, the proportion of immigrants in the population of the territories could total between 8.4% and 12.8%. The results of the different scenarios show that the increase in the proportion of immigrants in the territories would be influenced more by where immigrants settle upon their arrival in Canada than by the change in the number of immigrants at the national level.
• In 2036, the proportion of immigrants from Asia could range from 50.2% to 55.8%, while immigrants of European origin would represent between 20.0% and 21.7% of the territories’ immigrant population at the end of the projection period. The main birthplaces of immigrants living in the territories in 2036 would be Southeast Asia and Western Europe.
• At the end of the projection period, between 12.7% and 22.4% of Yukon’s population (11.2% in 2011), between 9.6% and 13.1% of the Northwest Territories’ population (7.1% in 2011) and between 3.3% and 4.4% of the Nunavut population (1.9% in 2011) would be immigrants.

Conclusion

The purpose of this report was to produce projection results from 2011 to 2036 in order to assess the influence of various aspects of immigration–the number of immigrants, the composition by country of birth, and the geographic distribution of immigrants upon their arrival in Canada–on ethnocultural diversity in Canada and its regions. Ethnocultural diversity is measured using various indicators such as birthplace, visible minority status, religion and mother tongue.

The different projection scenarios developed for this exercise indicate that the proportion of immigrants, people with a mother tongue other than English or French, people who reported having a non‑Christian religion, and people who belong to a visible minority group within Canada’s population would increase by 2036. In other words, Canada and all its regions would be more diversified in 2036 than in 2011, at least according to the indicators used.

Although the level of immigration would have a direct effect on how quickly Canada’s population becomes more diversified in coming years, the speed of this diversification in some regions would be influenced more by where immigrants settle upon their arrival in Canada than by the number of immigrants admitted nationally each year. For example, the projection results show that if a more important proportion of immigrants arriving in Canada settled in Ontario throughout the projections, as observed during the 2000-to-2005 period, ethnocultural diversity in all the Atlantic and Prairie provinces (Saskatchewan in particular) would increase much less quickly. Conversely, if these regions were to receive a larger proportion of the immigrants settling in Canada, as has been observed recently, they would become more ethnoculturally diverse more quickly.

Furthermore, according to the scenarios developed for these projections, if immigration by country of birth were to return to its 2005–2010 levels, there would be little impact on how quickly the population of Canada and its regions become more diverse in the coming years since the composition of immigration has basically remained Asian in recent years.

Readers are reminded that these projections are subject to a number of sources of uncertainty, particularly data sources and estimation of components and assumptions with regard to the evolution of the components considered, which could affect the results.

Lastly, the choice of assumptions and scenarios is not intended to predict the future, but rather to provide data users with a portrait of the Canadian population if certain conditions were met. Because it is impossible to know the future, several scenarios were developed to identify a broad range of plausible possibilities in light of the data and past trends, among others. For this reason, users of these projections are encouraged to consider the entire range of results rather than to look for a more likely scenario.

Appendices

Table A1. Population by generation status and continent of birth of immigrants, place of residence and projection scenario, Canada, 2011 and 2036

2011 - Base population (estimated)

2036 - Projected according to the reference scenario

2036 - Projected according to the low-immigration scenario

2036 - Projected according to the high-immigration scenario

2036 - Projected according to the alternative geographic distribution of immigrants upon arrival scenario (2005/2006 to 2009/2010)

2036 - Projected according to the alternative geographic distribution of immigrants upon arrival scenario (2000/2001 to 2004/2005)

2036 - Projected according to the alternative composition of immigration by country of birth scenario (2005/2006 to 2009/2010)

2036 - Projected according to the low-growth scenario

2036 - Projected according to the high-growth scenario

2036 - Projected according to the alternative internal migration scenario (2006 to 2011)

2036 - Projected according to the alternative internal migration scenario (2001 to 2006)

2036 - Projected according to the alternative internal migration scenario (1996 to 2001)

Table A2. Population by visible minority group, place of residence and projection scenario, Canada, 2011 and 2036

2011 - Base population (estimated)

2036 - Projected according to the reference scenario

2036 - Projected according to the low-immigration scenario

2036 - Projected according to the high-immigration scenario

2036 - Projected according to the alternative geographic distribution of immigrants upon arrival scenario (2005/2006 to 2009/2010)

2036 - Projected according to the alternative geographic distribution of immigrants upon arrival scenario (2000/2001 to 2004/2005)

2036 - Projected according to the alternative composition of immigration by country of birth scenario (2005/2006 to 2009/2010)

2036 - Projected according to the low-growth scenario

2036 - Projected according to the high-growth scenario

2036 - Projected according to the alternative internal migration scenario (2006 to 2011)

2036 - Projected according to the alternative internal migration scenario (2001 to 2006)

2036 - Projected according to the alternative internal migration scenario (1996 to 2001)

Table A3. Population by religion, place of residence and projection scenario, Canada, 2011 and 2036

2011 - Base population (estimated)

2036 - Projected according to the reference scenario

2036 - Projected according to the low-immigration scenario

2036 - Projected according to the high-immigration scenario

2036 - Projected according to the alternative geographic distribution of immigrants upon arrival scenario (2005/2006 to 2009/2010)

2036 - Projected according to the alternative geographic distribution of immigrants upon arrival scenario (2000/2001 to 2004/2005)

2036 - Projected according to the alternative composition of immigration by country of birth scenario (2005/2006 to 2009/2010)

2036 - Projected according to the alternative religious mobility scenario (1991 to 2001)

2036 - Projected according to the low-growth scenario

2036 - Projected according to the high-growth scenario

2036 - Projected according to the alternative internal migration scenario (2006 to 2011)

2036 - Projected according to the alternative internal migration scenario (2001 to 2006)

2036 - Projected according to the alternative internal migration scenario (1996 to 2001)

Table A4. Age structure indicators by generation status and continent of birth of immigrants, visible minority group and religion, Canada, 2011 and 2036

2011 - Base population (estimated)

2036 - Projected according to the reference scenario

2036 - Projected according to the low-immigration scenario

2036 - Projected according to the high-immigration scenario

2036 - Projected according to the alternative geographic distribution of immigrants upon arrival scenario (2005/2006 to 2009/2010)

2036 - Projected according to the alternative geographic distribution of immigrants upon arrival scenario (2000/2001 to 2004/2005)

2036 - Projected according to the alternative composition of immigration by country of birth scenario (2005/2006 to 2009/2010)

2036 - Projected according to the low-growth scenario

2036 - Projected according to the high-growth scenario

2036 - Projected according to the alternative internal migration scenario (2006 to 2011)

2036 - Projected according to the alternative internal migration scenario (2001 to 2006)

2036 - Projected according to the alternative internal migration scenario (1996 to 2001)

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Glossary^{Note 53}

Aboriginal people

Person who reported belonging to at least one Aboriginal group (North American Indian, Métis or Inuit) and/or reported being a Treaty or Registered Indian, as defined by the Canadian Indian Act, and/or reported belonging to an Indian band and/or a First Nation in the census.

Age pyramid

Histogram (column diagram) that shows population distribution by age and sex.

Base population

The population used as the starting point for population projections.

Canadian citizenship

A person’s legal status as a Canadian citizen, whether by birth or by naturalization.

Canadian population

Population whose usual place of residence is Canada. It includes Canadian citizens by birth, naturalized and non-naturalized immigrants and non-permanent residents.

Census metropolitan area

Area consisting of one or more adjacent municipalities centered on a population core. It has a population of at least 100,000, of which 50,000 or more live in the core.

Cohort

Represents a group of people who experienced a specific demographic event during a given period that may be one year in length. For example, the married cohort of 1966 consists of the people who married in 1966. In the case of births, people born within a specified year are referred to as a generation.

Cohort-component method

Method used for population estimates or projections that is based on the components of demographic change and a base population as input. The phrase "cohort-component method" is usually restricted to methods projecting the future evolution of cohorts by age and sex, as opposed to other methods, such as microsimulation, that also use components of population growth but that project the demographic destiny of individuals.

Components of population growth

Any class of event that generates population changes. For example, births, deaths and migration are components that modify either the size of the total population or its composition by age and sex.

Emigrant

Canadian citizen or immigrant who left Canada to establish permanent residence in another country.

Ethnocultural diversity

In this document, the notion of ethnocultural diversity refers to diversity as it relates to visible minority groups, generation status, religion, birthplace and mother tongue. Clearly, this operational definition does not cover all forms of ethnocultural diversity, which could therefore be defined through other variables.

Fertility

A demographic phenomenon related to live births that can be considered from the point of view of women, the couple and, very occasionally, men.

First official language spoken

Refer to a variable specified within the framework of the Official Languages Act used to identify the first official language spoken by a person (i.e., English or French). This information is derived from three linguistic questions from the census (in order): knowledge of the official languages, the language first learned at home and still understood, and the language spoken most often at home.

Generation status based on immigration status

The respondent’s generation rank since the settlement of his/her family (meaning direct ascendants) in Canada. In the context of Demosim, immigrants are the first generation; the second generation refers to non-immigrants born in Canada to at least one foreign-born parent; the generations that follow (third or more) comprise non-immigrants born in Canada to two Canadian-born parents. A more detailed version of this variable split the first and second generations into two distinct groups: generations 1 and 1.5; and generations 2 and 2.5. According to this version of the variable, generation 1 refers to immigrants admitted at age 15 or more, while generation 1.5 refers to immigrants admitted at age 14 or less. Generation 2 refers to non-immigrants born in Canada to two foreign-born parents, while generation 2.5 refers to non-immigrants born in Canada to one foreign-born parent and to one parent born in Canada. This definition of generation status differs slightly from the one used in the census, which is based only on the place of birth (without regard to immigrant status).

Highest level of education

A person's most advanced certificate, diploma or degree.

Immigrant

A person who has been granted the right to live in Canada permanently by immigration authorities.

Immigrant category of admission

An administrative category under which a person is admitted to Canada as a permanent resident under the Immigration and Refugee Protection Act. At the aggregate level, classes are composed of economic immigrants, immigrants admitted as members of a family, immigrants admitted as protected people (refugees) and other immigrants.

Immigration

The sum of all immigrants from other countries landing in Canada, involving a change in usual place of residence.

Immigration rate

The number of immigrants divided by the size of the population during a given period.

Internal migration

The sum of all population movements between the geographic units within Canada's geographical boundaries, involving a change in usual place of residence.

International migration

The sum of all movements between Canada and other countries, involving a change in usual place of residence.

Interregional migration

The sum of all movements among the 50 main geographic entities defined in Demosim, namely the 35 regions derived from the census metropolitan areas and the 15 regions derived from elsewhere in the provinces and territories.

Intraregional migration

The sum of all movements within one of the 50 main geographic entities defined in Demosim, namely one of the 35 regions derived from the census metropolitan areas or one of the 15 regions derived from elsewhere in the provinces and territories.

Language most often spoken at home

The language spoken most often by the respondent at home.

Language substitution

See “language transfer”.

Language transfer

Refer to the phenomenon that occurs when a person adopts a language other than his or her mother tongue as the language spoken most often at home.

Life expectancy

A statistical measure derived from the life table, indicating the average number of years of life remaining for a population at a specific age "x", calculated on the basis of the mortality rates estimated in a given year.

Linguistic mobility

A generic term that, in the context of Demosim, refers to both the transmission of languages from parents to children (intergenerational linguistic mobility) and the changes that can occur over an individual’s lifetime with respect to the languages spoken at home or the languages known (intragenerational linguistic mobility).

Median age

An age "x", such that exactly one half of the population is older than "x" and the other half is younger than "x".

Microsimulation

Unlike population estimates and projections produced using the cohort-component method, microsimulation simulates the demographic destiny of each individual. The method is based on multiple random drawing at the individual level rather than on aggregated data applied at the population group level.

Migratory increase

The change in the size of a population owing to the difference between the number of migrants who settle within a geographic area and the number of migrants who leave that same area during a given period.

Mother tongue

The first language learned at home in childhood and still understood.

Natural increase

The change in the size of a population owing to the difference between the number of births and the number of deaths during a given period.

Net non-permanent residents

Variation in the number of non-permanent residents between two dates.

Net temporary emigration

Variation in the number of temporary emigrants between two dates.

Net undercoverage

Difference between the number of people who were targeted by the census but who were not enumerated (undercoverage), and the number of people who were enumerated when they should not have been, or who were enumerated more than once (overcoverage).

Non-Christian religions

In the context of this study, people with a non-Christian religion include people who have a religion (excluding people with no religious affiliation) other than Catholic, Protestant, Christian orthodox, or Christian not included elsewhere. The non-Christian religion groups projected are Islam, Judaism, Buddhism, Hinduism, Sikhism and other non-Christian religions.

Non-permanent resident

People who have a work or study permit or who are refugee claimants, and the family members living in Canada with them.

Person-years

The total number of years lived in a given state by the people who make up the population from January 1 to December 31 of a given year. In this study, projected population figures are presented in person-years, while the figures for the base population are as of May 10, 2011 (Census and NHS Day).

Population increase or total increase

The change in the size of a population between two dates.

Population projection

The future population size resulting from a set of assumptions regarding the demographic and non-demographic components of growth.

Projection scenario

A set of assumptions relating to the components, demographic or otherwise, used to make a population projection.

Religion

Self-reported affiliation with a religious denomination, group, body, sect, cult or other religiously defined community or system of belief. This concept differs from the concepts of religious practice (e.g., prayer or participation in religious ceremonies) and religiosity (devotion, importance of religion in daily life, etc.).

Religious mobility

A change in religious affiliation, whether between parents and their children (intergenerational religious mobility) or over an individual’s lifetime (intragenerational religious mobility).

Returning emigrant

Canadian citizen or immigrant who previously emigrated from Canada and subsequently returned to the country.

Temporary emigrant

Canadian citizen or immigrant who left Canada to establish temporary residence in a foreign country.

Total emigration

The number of emigrants minus the number of returning emigrants plus net temporary emigration.

Total fertility rate

The sum of age-specific fertility rates during a given year. It indicates the average number of children that a generation of women would have if, over the course of their reproductive life, they experienced the age-specific fertility rates observed during the year considered.

Visible minority groups

The Employment Equity Act defines visible minorities as "persons, other than Aboriginal peoples, who are non-Caucasian in race or non-white in colour."