Table 3.12
Decomposition of annual crude growth rates, observed (1972/1973 to 2012/2013) and projected (2017/2018 to 2037/2038) according to selected scenarios, Manitoba
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| Scenario | Period | Total growth | Natural increase | Net international migration | Net interprovincial migration | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Births | Deaths | Total | Immigration | Net emigration | Net non-permanent residents | Total | In-migration | Out-migration | |||
| crude rate per thousand | ||||||||||||
| Observed | 1972/1973 | 7.8 | 8.7 | 17.0 | 8.2 | 4.6 | 5.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | -5.5 | 29.4 | 34.9 |
| 1992/1993 | 4.3 | 6.5 | 14.8 | 8.3 | 2.7 | 4.9 | 1.7 | -0.4 | -5.0 | 14.2 | 19.2 | |
| 2012/2013 | 12.0 | 4.4 | 12.8 | 8.5 | 11.0 | 10.1 | 0.7 | 1.5 | -3.4 | 11.6 | 15.0 | |
| Projected (low-growth scenario (L)) | 2017/2018 | 7.6 | 4.2 | 12.2 | 8.1 | 7.6 | 8.4 | 0.8 | 0.0 | -4.2 | 11.3 | 15.5 |
| 2027/2028 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 11.0 | 8.3 | 6.2 | 7.0 | 0.8 | 0.0 | -4.3 | 10.9 | 15.2 | |
| 2037/2038 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 10.6 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 7.0 | 0.7 | 0.0 | -4.4 | 10.8 | 15.2 | |
| Projected (medium-growth scenario (M1)) | 2017/2018 | 10.7 | 5.1 | 13.0 | 7.8 | 9.8 | 10.4 | 1.8 | 0.2 | -4.3 | 11.3 | 15.6 |
| 2027/2028 | 10.0 | 4.7 | 12.3 | 7.6 | 9.7 | 10.5 | 0.8 | 0.0 | -4.4 | 11.0 | 15.5 | |
| 2037/2038 | 8.7 | 3.6 | 11.8 | 8.2 | 9.7 | 10.5 | 0.8 | 0.0 | -4.5 | 11.1 | 15.6 | |
| Projected (medium-growth scenario (M4)) | 2017/2018 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 12.9 | 7.8 | 9.8 | 10.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | -5.5 | 10.4 | 15.9 |
| 2027/2028 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 12.2 | 7.7 | 9.7 | 10.5 | 0.8 | 0.0 | -5.7 | 10.3 | 16.0 | |
| 2037/2038 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 11.7 | 8.4 | 9.7 | 10.5 | 0.8 | 0.0 | -6.0 | 10.5 | 16.5 | |
| Projected (medium-growth scenario (M5)) | 2017/2018 | 12.5 | 5.3 | 13.0 | 7.8 | 9.8 | 10.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | -2.6 | 9.3 | 11.9 |
| 2027/2028 | 12.0 | 5.0 | 12.5 | 7.5 | 9.7 | 10.5 | 0.8 | 0.0 | -2.7 | 9.2 | 11.9 | |
| 2037/2038 | 11.0 | 4.0 | 12.0 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 10.5 | 0.8 | 0.0 | -2.7 | 9.2 | 11.9 | |
| Projected (high-growth scenario (H)) | 2017/2018 | 13.3 | 6.5 | 14.0 | 7.4 | 11.1 | 11.4 | 0.8 | 0.5 | -4.3 | 11.4 | 15.6 |
| 2027/2028 | 14.5 | 7.0 | 13.7 | 6.7 | 11.9 | 12.6 | 0.8 | 0.1 | -4.4 | 11.1 | 15.5 | |
| 2037/2038 | 13.5 | 6.3 | 13.2 | 6.9 | 11.8 | 12.6 | 0.8 | 0.0 | -4.6 | 11.2 | 15.8 | |
|
Notes: Crude rates are calculated over the total population and expressed per thousand persons in the total population at midyear. Crude rates are significantly affected by the age structure of the population. For example, most countries will eventually experience an increase in the crude death rate in the coming decades due to the aging of the population, in spite of continued declines in mortality at all ages. The crude rate of natural increase and the crude rate of net migration sum to the crude growth rate. The crude rate of natural increase equals the crude birth rate minus the crude death rate. The crude rate of net migration equals the crude rate of immigration minus the crude rate of net emigration plus the crude rate of net non-permanent resident migration. Net emigration is the balance of emigrants, minus returning emigrants, plus net temporary emigrants. The rate of net interprovincial migration equals the crude rate of interprovincial in-migration minus the crude rate of interprovincial out-migration. Totals may not equal the sum of their components as a result of rounding. Source: Statistics Canada, Demography Division. |
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