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Appendix B: Sources and remarks

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Base population

May 10, 2011 Census of Population adjusted for census net undercoverage and incompletely enumerated Indian reserves.

2011 Census: Statistics Canada, Census of Canada, 2011, Catalogue no. 98-310-X.

Census net undercoverage: See The Daily, September 26, 2013.

Incompletely enumerated Indian reserves: See The Daily, September 26, 2013.

Births and deaths

Statistics Canada, Health Statistics Division.

Statistics Canada, Demography Division, catalogue no. 91-215-X, annual.

Births:
Fertility rates for 2011 based on births by age of mother provided by Health Statistics Division applied to the female population estimates at the beginning of the quarter. Births for Quebec and British Columbia were provided by their respective agencies.
Deaths:
Mortality rates for 2011 based on deaths by age group and sex provided by Health Statistics Division applied to the population estimates by age group and sex at the beginning of the quarter. Deaths for Quebec and British Columbia were provided by their respective agencies.

Immigration

Estimates are based on the immigrant files provided by Citizenship and Immigration Canada (CIC) according to information made available on August 18, 2014.

Emigration

The estimates are produced by Demography Division using:

  1. data from Canada Revenue Agency (CRA) Canada Child Tax Benefit files (CCTB) program. From 2012/2013, we used 2011/2012 data;
  2. tax data calculated using T1FF file provided by the Income Statistics Division of Statistics Canada. From 2012/2013, we used 2011/2012 data;
  3. data provided by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, Office of Immigration Statistics. From 2013/2014, we used 2012/2013 data;
  4. data on the number of adult and children emigrants from T1FF5 file used for the provincial distribution of adults. From 2012/2013, we used 2011/2012 data.

Returning emigration

The estimates are produced by Demography Division using:

  1. data from Canada Revenue Agency (CRA) Canada Child Tax Benefit files (CCTB) program. From 2012/2013, we used 2011/2012 data;
  2. 2011 National Household Survey – question on the place of residence one year ago.

Net temporary emigration

The estimates are produced by Demography Division using:

  1. data from the Reverse Record Check (RRC) of the 2011 Census;
  2. 2011 National Household Survey – question on the place of residence 5 years ago;
  3. estimates of returning emigrants for 2006 to 2011 intercensal period.

Non-permanent residents

The estimates are produced by Demography Division using Field Operational Support System files (FOSS) from CIC. These files, received on August 18, 2014, document the number of persons holding permits/authorizations or claiming refugee status.

Note: Over the last several months, a progressive increase in the number of records with missing intended province/territory of residence was observed in the administrative files of CIC. These files are used by the Demography Division to produce estimates of the net change in the number of non-permanent residents (NPRs) by province and territory. According to usual processes, the Demography Division imputes missing cases on a prorated basis based on known cases. This process was done for all estimates up to those released on June 18, 2014.

CIC has recently developed an alternative way of allocating a province or territory of residence when this information is missing through the use of other sources of information. These new data were produced for the period beginning on January 1, 2013. They considerably reduced the quantity of imputation needed.

Estimates released on September 26, 2014 take these changes into account. This explains the extent, higher than usual, of the update made to the estimates of net non-permanent residents beginning January 1, 2013.

Interprovincial migration

The estimates are produced by Demography Division using:

  1. CCTB-based adjusted migration data for children;
  2. factors corresponding to the ratio of the migration rate of all children to the migration rate of eligible children calculated using 2012/2013 tax file data;
  3. factors used to calculate adult migration and corresponding to the ratio of the adult to child migration rates, calculated on a three-year basis using tax file data for 2010/2011, 2011/2012 and 2012/2013.

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