Annual Demographic Estimates: Subprovincial Areas, July 1, 2018
Section 1 : Census metropolitan areas and Census agglomerations

Section 1.1: Census metropolitan areas

• On July 1, 2018, 26,497,722 people were living in one of the 36 census metropolitan areas (CMAs) in Canada^{Note 1}.
• The proportion of the population living in a CMA continued to increase to 71.5%, or more than 7 in 10 Canadians, up from 2008 (69.7%).
• More than one in three Canadians (35.7%) were living in one of Canada’s three largest CMAs—Toronto, Montréal or Vancouver.
• Between July 1, 2017, and July 1, 2018 (the 2017/2018 period), population growth was nearly three times higher in CMAs (+17.5 per thousand) than in areas outside CMAs (+5.7 per thousand).
• In the most recent annual period, the overall growth of CMAs was higher than in 2016/2017 (+14.6 per thousand). This increase was similar to that observed for the entire country.^{Note 2}
• Several CMAs in Ontario topped the list of fastest-growing CMAs in 2017/2018. The shift began in 2016/2017. Between 2006/2007 and 2015/2016, at most two Ontario CMAs were among the ten fastest-growing CMAs in Canada, with western provinces being predominantly in the foreground.

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CMA growth unequal from east to west

Atlantic provinces

• Halifax (+20.1 per thousand) was the only CMA within the Atlantic provinces with higher population growth than the growth of all CMAs combined (+17.5 per thousand).
• The Saint John CMA posted positive population growth (+4.3 per thousand) for a third consecutive year after four years of population decline.
• With zero growth in 2017/2018, the St. John’s CMA was the slowest-growing Canadian CMA. Although positive, St. John’s has seen a gradual year-over-year growth decline starting in 2010/2011.

Quebec

• The population growth of each of the six Quebec CMAs was lower than for all of Canada’s CMAs combined in 2017/2018.
• In 2017/2018, the population growth of the Montréal (15.7 per thousand) and Sherbrooke (13.9 per thousand) CMAs was above that of the province (+11.1 per thousand).
• Despite posting the second-lowest growth in the country (+2.4 per thousand), the population of the Saguenay CMA has been increasing since 2016/2017 following three years of relative stability. An influx of non-permanent residents explained the 2017/2018 growth, since the region experienced migratory losses to other parts of the province and other provinces, coupled with a low rate of natural growth.

Ontario

• The five fastest-growing Canadian CMAs in 2017/2018 were located in Ontario (Peterborough, Kitchener–Cambridge–Waterloo, Ottawa–Gatineau (Ontario part), Windsor and London).
• The fifth slowest-growing CMA in Canada (+6.8 per thousand), Thunder Bay continued to rank among the five CMAs with the lowest growth (positive or negative) for a twelfth consecutive year (or since 2006, the beginning of the period covered by the study).
• In 2017/2018, growth in the Greater Sudbury CMA reached 10.8 per thousand; it had never exceeded 4.2 per thousand in the previous 11 years. Greater Sudbury benefited from a significant influx of international migrants in 2017/2018.
• In Ontario’s areas outside CMAs and CAs, growth was estimated at 5.2 per thousand, but it was less pronounced than in the entire province (+17.7 per thousand).

Prairies

• Among the Prairie CMAs, three of six were among the 10 fastest-growing CMAs in the country. But contrary to previous years, none of them ranked in the top five.
• Saskatchewan’s two CMAs, Regina (+22.5 per thousand) and Saskatoon (+21.8 per thousand), had the highest population growth in the Prairies in 2017/2018, above the growth for all Canadian CMAs combined (+17.5 per thousand).
• Population growth in Alberta CMAs was higher in 2017/2018 (+19.5 per thousand) than a year earlier (+16.8 per thousand), after a marked slowdown from 2014/2015 to 2016/2017. This period coincides with the commodities downturn that began in 2014, which was reflected in the rising unemployment rate in the province beginning at the start of 2015, peaking at the end of 2016 and gradually decreasing thereafter.^{Note 3}

British Columbia

• Only the Kelowna CMA (+19.3 per thousand) posted population growth higher than the growth of all Canadian CMAs combined (+17.5 per thousand).
• Victoria was the slowest-growing CMA in the province, with 12.5 per thousand.

Population growth of CMAs stimulated by international migration

• International migration was the main factor in the population growth of 28 in 36 CMAs in 2017/2018.
• The number of non-permanent residents^{Note 4} grew significantly, particularly in the CMAs in Ontario, along with the three biggest CMAs in Canada, showing values rarely or never seen in the 2006-to-2018 period.

Atlantic provinces

• International migration was the main source of growth in the CMAs in the Atlantic provinces, except in the St. John’s CMA in Newfoundland and Labrador. It hovered around the peak levels recorded in 2015/2016.
• The Halifax CMA had the highest international migration growth rate in 2017/2018 among the Atlantic CMAs, with 12.7 per thousand.

Quebec

• The Montréal CMA—the second largest CMA in the country—also showed the second largest net number of international migrants (+69,768) among all Canadian CMAs in 2017/2018, an increase not seen in the study period from 2006 to 2018.
• The Montréal CMA has never seen such a large increase in the number of non-permanent residents in a single year.
• Montréal was the only Quebec CMA among the top 10 Canadian CMAs with the highest international migration rates, ranking 8th with 16.5 per thousand.

Ontario

• The Toronto CMA continued to be the number one destination for international migrants (+133,272) in 2017/2018. Growth of this magnitude has not been observed during the period from 2006 to 2018. The CMA also had the second highest international migration rate in the country, with 21.2 per thousand.
• The number of non-permanent residents who settled in Ontario’s CMAs reached levels rarely or never seen during the 2006-to-2018 observation period.
• The Toronto CMA had positive net interprovincial migration (+9,374) for a third consecutive year after four years of losses.
• Intraprovincial migration accounted for most of the population growth in seven Canadian CMAs with populations of under 500,000, five of which are in Ontario (Belleville, Oshawa, Brantford, Guelph and Barrie). Many of these smaller CMAs are near the Toronto CMA, and their migration gains were mainly at the expense of Toronto.

Prairies

• The Regina CMA (+23.1 per thousand) had the highest international migration rate in the country. Winnipeg (+19.8 per thousand) ranked third, after Toronto.
• In Alberta, interprovincial migration was slightly positive in the Calgary (+100) and Edmonton (+1,295) CMAs after two years of losses.

British Columbia

• The four British Columbia CMAs (Kelowna, Abbotsford-Mission, Vancouver and Victoria) benefited from an influx of international migrants (+47,856) in 2017/2018.
• The Abbotsford–Mission CMA posted an international migration rate of 18.7 per thousand, the fourth highest rate among all Canadian CMAs in 2017/2018. The CMA recorded an important rise in the number of non-permanent residents (+2,635) over the same period.

Of Canada’s three largest CMAs, Toronto had the strongest population growth

• On July 1, 2018, Canada’s three largest CMAs had a total combined population of 13.2 million, or more than one in three Canadians (35.7%), up from 2008 (34.9%).
• The proportion of new immigrants who settled in one of the three largest Canadian CMAs increased in the past year, after an almost steady decline in the previous decade. In 2017/2018, 59.0% of immigrants who settled in Canada (+178,891) chose to live in the Toronto, Montréal or Vancouver CMAs, compared with 53.4% in 2016/2017 and 68.0% in 2006/2007.
• A significant proportion of the new immigrants also settled in five of the six Prairie CMAs (Winnipeg, Regina, Saskatoon, Calgary and Edmonton), which received 18.1% of immigrants in 2017/2018, one and a half times the proportion observed in 2006/2007 (11.7%).

Montréal CMA

• In 2017/2018, the population in the Montréal CMA grew by 66,116 (+15.7 per thousand) to 4,255,541.
• This growth was almost all due to international migration. The Montréal CMA incurred migration losses of 12,243 people to the rest of Quebec and of 5,559 to other provinces and territories, while benefiting from a positive natural growth (+14,150).
• Intraprovincial migratory losses occurred more often in the 30-39 and 50-64 age groups.

Toronto CMA

• Of Canada’s three largest CMAs, Toronto had the strongest population growth in 2017/2018.
• With an increase of 125,298 (+20.0 per thousand), the population of Canada’s largest CMA was 6,341,935. This was the highest annual population growth in Toronto CMA during the study period from 2006/2007 to 2017/2018.
• This increase stemmed mainly from international migration (+21.2 per thousand), particularly because of the positive balance of non-permanent residents (+42,679) and new immigrants (+104,470) settling in Toronto in 2017/2018.
• The Toronto CMA lost residents (-49,758) to other regions within the province, especially those located on the outskirts of Toronto. Migration losses were largest among children younger than 5 years of age, persons aged 25 to 39 and those aged 55 to 64.
• Specifically, the Toronto CMA saw migration losses that benefited the outlying CMAs of Oshawa, Hamilton, Barrie and Kitchener–Cambridge–Waterloo.

Vancouver CMA

• The population of the Vancouver CMA was 2,650,005 on July 1, 2018, up 39,400 (+15.0 per thousand) from the previous year.
• The Vancouver CMA saw intraprovincial migratory losses of 13,967 residents, mainly to the benefit of the neighbouring CMA of Abbotsford–Mission and areas outside CMAs and CAs.
• Intraprovincial migration losses were the most pronounced among children younger than 5 years of age, persons aged 30 to 34 and those aged 45 to 59.

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The population of CMAs younger than in the rest of Canada

Comparison of age structure between CMAs, CAs and areas outside CMAs and CAs

• On July 1, 2018, the median age of the population residing in a CMA was 39.5 years. By comparison, the median age of the CA population was higher at 43.4 years, whereas it was 45.6 years in the areas outside CMAs and CAs population.
• The age structure of CMA, CA and areas outside CMAs and CAs populations differs mainly in terms of the demographic weight of the age groups starting at 18 years, as the age pyramid in Figure 1.1 shows:
• On one hand, Figure 1.1 shows that persons aged 20 to 49 represented a larger share of the population of CMAs than of CAs and areas outside CMAs.
• This is mainly the result of young adults migrating from areas outside CMAs to CMAs, as well as a greater influx of immigrants into CMAs—more than two-thirds of the new immigrants who settled in a CMA were aged 20 to 49.
• On the other hand, the 65-and-older group accounted for 20.9% of the areas outside CMAs and CAs population, compared with 20.2% of the population in CAs and15.8% of the population in CMAs.
• Although the number of persons aged 65 and older exceeded the number of children aged 0 to 14 in Canada in 2015/2016, 14 CMAs (mostly those in the Prairies and some CMAs in Ontario) still had more children than seniors on July 1, 2018, compared with 27 CMAs a decade earlier.

The CMAs with the youngest populations are in western Canada

CMAs with the youngest populations

• On July 1, 2018, the five CMAs with the lowest median ages in Canada were in Alberta and Saskatchewan.
• Saskatoon had the lowest median age, at 35.5 years. This is 5.3 years less than the median age for Canada (40.8 years).
• The Lethbridge, Saskatoon and Regina CMAs stood out for having young populations. These CMAs had the greatest proportions of persons aged 0 to 14 (19.0%, 18.7% and 18.6% respectively).
• The Calgary CMA was also one of the youngest CMAs in Canada. In addition to posting the fourth largest proportion of persons aged 0 to 14 (18.4%), it was the CMA with the smallest proportion of persons aged 65 and older (11.6%).

CMAs with the oldest populations

• With respect to median age, the oldest population was in the Trois-Rivières CMA (46.4 years), followed by the Saguenay CMA (45.8 years) and the St. Catharines–Niagara CMA (45.6 years).
• The Trois-Rivières CMA (23.2%) also had the largest share of persons aged 65 and older among all the CMAs in Canada. The Peterborough CMA and the St. Catharines–Niagara CMA had the second and third highest proportions of persons aged 65 and older, at 22.2% and 22.1% respectively.

CMA with the youngest population and CMA with the oldest population

• Figure 1.2 compares the age pyramid for the Lethbridge CMA, where the share of youth aged 0 to 14 was the largest, with the pyramid for Trois-Rivières, which had the highest proportion of persons aged 65 and older:
• The top of the pyramid, which is wider for Trois-Rivières than for Lethbridge, indicates that the age structure is older in the Quebec CMA.
• The larger share of persons aged 65 and older in Trois-Rivières can be attributed to the intraprovincial migration in recent years of persons mainly aged 40 and older, coupled with one of the lowest birth rates in the country.
• The wider base of the Lethbridge CMA pyramid indicates that children account for a larger share of the population in this CMA.
• The relatively large size of this age group is in part due to a high birth rate—still among the three highest since 2006/2007.

Fastest-aging CMAs were in Quebec and Ontario

• Even though the populations of CMAs are younger than in the rest of Canada, these populations are also aging, but not as quickly as in CAs and areas outside CMAs and CAs.
• The median age of the population of CMAs increased 1.1 years between July 1, 2008 and July 1, 2018, compared with 2.2 years for CAs and 3.0 years for areas outside CMAs and CAs.
• As well, the proportion of persons aged 65 and older in CMAs rose from 12.8% to 15.8% during the same period, an increase of 3.0 percentage points. In CAs, the proportion was 20.2% on July 1, 2018, an increase of 4.6 percentage points, which is even greater than the one observed in the CMAs. Areas outside CMAs and CAs aged even faster, as the proportion of persons aged 65 and older was 20.9% on July 1, 2018, an increase of 5.2 percentage points in ten years.
• An increase in the median age combined with an increase in the proportion of persons aged 65 and older was observed in almost all of Canada’s CMAs.

CMAs with the fastest-aging populations

• The biggest increases in the proportion of persons aged 65 and older between 2008 and 2018 were recorded in Quebec CMAs, specifically Saguenay (+6.2 percentage points), Trois-Rivières (+5.8 percentage points), Sherbrooke (+5.3 percentage points) and Québec (+5.1 percentage points). Quebec had proportionately more births during the baby boom period (1946-1965) than elsewhere in Canada, these cohorts now reaching the age of 65 in high numbers.
• In addition, the largest increases in median age over the past decade were in the New Brunswick CMAs of Saint John (+3.4 years) and Moncton (+3.0 years), and the Ontario CMAs of St. Catharines–Niagara (+3.0 years), Windsor (+2.7 years), Belleville (+2.6 years) and Barrie (+2.3 years).

CMAs with the slowest-aging populations

• The Prairie CMAs recorded slower population aging than in the rest of Canada.
• Over the past decade, the median age in the Regina and Winnipeg CMAs has decreased 0.7 years and 0.5 years, respectively. In the Edmonton, Saskatoon and Lethbridge CMAs, the change in median age over the same period was 0.5 years at most (compared with +1.4 years for Canada).
• In the Prairie CMAs, the increase in the proportion of the population aged 65 and older between 2008 and 2018 did not exceed 2.6 percentage points (compared with +3.5 percentage points for Canada).

Section 1.2: Census agglomerations

Census agglomerations (CAs) with the highest growth rates in the past year

• Between July 1, 2017, and July 1, 2018, the population increased in 93 of Canada’s 120 CAs (77.5%), decreased in 19 CAs (15.8%) and remained relatively stable in the others.

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