Report on the Demographic Situation in Canada
Internal migration in Canada from 2012/2013 to 2014/2015 Report on the Demographic Situation in Canada
Internal migration in Canada from 2012/2013 to 2014/2015

View the most recent version.

by François Sergerie, Demography Division

Skip to text

Text begins

Start of text box

End of text box

This article analyzes the most recent internal migration trends in Canada. The analysis is based mostly on final data from 2012/2013 to 2014/2015 (July 1 to June 30). A short section also gives an overview of preliminary data for 2015/2016. These data are subject to revision and should be interpreted with caution. For the analysis of census metropolitan areas (CMAs), the most recent final data available are for the 2013/2014 period.

Internal migration represents all movements of people within Canada’s geographical boundaries, involving a change in usual place of residence. It denotes movements of people from one province or territory to another (interprovincial migration) or from one region to another within the same province or territory (intraprovincial migration).

This article is divided into sections based on the following indicators: net interprovincial migration, interprovincial flows of in-migrants and out-migrants, age and sex structure of interprovincial migrants, and internal migration between CMAs.

Start of text box

End of text box

Net interprovincial migration

Net interprovincial migration represents the difference between in-migrants and out-migrants for a given province or territory. It can be presented as either a number or a rate.

In Canada, the number of interprovincial migrants rose slightly in recent years, from 261,300 in 2012/2013 to 275,100 in 2013/2014 and then 283,800 in 2014/2015 (Table 1). The national interprovincial migration rate also rose during these same periods, from 7.5 per thousand to 7.8 per thousand, and then 8.0 per thousand.

Net interprovincial migration for the period 2014/2015 was negative in seven provinces and two territories. The lowest net interprovincial migrations were recorded in the central provinces of Québec (-16,100) and Ontario (-8,700). However, because of their large populations, the net interprovincial migration rates of Quebec (-2.0 per thousand) and Ontario (-0.6 per thousand) were only slightly negative. Thus, while these provinces had substantial losses in absolute numbers, interprovincial migration had only a limited negative influence on their population growth (Figure 1).

Even though their net interprovincial migration numbers and rates are similar, Ontario and Quebec differed considerably in their migratory dynamics in 2014/2015. Ontario was a major hub of interprovincial migration, with very sizable numbers of in-migrants and out-migrants. Of Canada’s provinces and territories, Ontario had the second largest number of in-migrants (62,900) and the largest number of out-migrants (71,600). Proportionally, the frequency of interprovincial migration was lower in Quebec. The number of in-migrants there was 3.8 times lower than in Ontario (16,600) and the number of out-migrants was 2.2 times lower (32,800). This is due in part to the fact that traditionally, francophone Quebecers have exceptionally low interprovincial migration rates (Finnie 2000).

In relative terms, Prince Edward Island (-4.7 per thousand), Nova Scotia (-2.4 per thousand) and New Brunswick (-3.7 per thousand) had negative net interprovincial migration rates in 2014/2015. However, the losses posted by these Atlantic provinces have gradually diminished, since their respective rates were lower during both the 2012/2013 and 2013/2014 periods. Manitoba (-5.2 per thousand) and Saskatchewan (-4.0 per thousand) also had substantial migratory losses in 2014/2015. For Saskatchewan, this was a shift since 2012/2013, when its migratory exchanges were positive (0.4 per thousand). Finally, the Northwest Territories (-5.1 per thousand) and Nunavut (-4.7 per thousand) also had negative net rates in 2014/2015. However, these territories exhibit significant random fluctuations because of their small populations.

In 2014/2015, three provinces and one territory recorded positive net interprovincial migration. Between 2012/2013 and 2014/2015, net interprovincial migration in Alberta declined, going from 38,600 migrants (+9.8 per thousand) to 21,600 migrants (+5.2 per thousand). Despite this decrease, Alberta had the largest net number and rate of any province or territory in Canada in 2014/2015. In British Columbia, the interprovincial migration picture changed completely from 2012/2013 to 2014/2015. Whereas the province’s net interprovincial migration was -1,900 in 2012/2013, it rose to 20,400 two years later. These numbers corresponded to rates of -0.4 per thousand and 4.4 per thousand. In 2014/2015, Newfoundland and Labrador also posted a positive net interprovincial migration rate (+0.3 per thousand). Of the territories, Yukon was the only one to register a positive rate in 2014/2015, at 2.3 per thousand.

In relation to the other periods included in the historical series that began in 1971/1972 (start of the Population Estimates Program), the annual numbers of interprovincial migrants in recent years are among the lowest on record. The maximum was reached in 1973/1974, with a total of 437,500 interprovincial migrants throughout Canada. Since that time, the annual number of interprovincial migrants has declined by one-third and the corresponding rate has fallen by more than half (Figure 2).

Since 1971, Alberta and British Columbia have by turns been the main beneficiaries of interprovincial migration, with cumulative gains of 638,600 and 598,900 people, respectively. During all the annual periods from 1996/1997 to 2014/2015, except for 2009/2010, Alberta had the largest net interprovincial migration of any of Canada’s provinces and territories. Since 1971, Quebec has consistently recorded negative migration, resulting in a net loss of 596,000 people. Manitoba (-225,200), Saskatchewan (-201,400) and the Atlantic provinces (-183,100) have also accumulated significant migratory losses since 1971. Ontario, which annually has large number of in-migrants and out-migrants, has an almost zero cumulative balance (-9,300) (Figure 3).

Flows of interprovincial migrants

Interprovincial migratory flows refer to the movement of individuals from one province or territory to another. The analysis of interprovincial migratory flows serves to describe the migratory dynamics between each province and territory (Table 2). 

The largest migratory flows (the largest 20%) are shown in Figure 4, in which a different colour is assigned to each province and territory. Origins and destinations are represented by the circle’s segments. Flows have the same colour as their origin, the width indicates their size and the arrow their direction.

In 2014/2015, 26,900 persons migrated from Alberta to British Columbia, the biggest flow between two Canadian provinces. The reverse flow, from British Columbia to Alberta, was 21,200 persons (third biggest flow in Canada), resulting in a net flow of 5,700 persons in favour of British Columbia in the migratory exchanges between these two provinces.

Exchanges between the most populous province, Ontario, and the Western provinces were also among the main migratory flows between Canadian provinces. The flows from Ontario to Alberta (25,700) and British Columbia (17,900) were the second and fifth biggest flows in Canada, respectively. The reverse flows, from Alberta to Ontario (14,000) and from British Columbia to Ontario (11,300) were respectively the sixth and seventh biggest. Thus, Ontario had net losses in its migratory exchanges with those two provinces.

The main flow not involving the Western provinces was from Quebec to Ontario, with 18,800 persons (fourth biggest in Canada). The reverse flow, from Ontario to Quebec, involved 9,900 persons (eight biggest flow in Canada). The exchanges between these two provinces favoured Ontario by 8,900 persons.

Another way to show the migratory relationships among the provinces and the territories is to break down the net migration rate of each reference province in 2014/2015 (as shown in Figure 1) by province or territory of origin or destination (Figure 5). This way of presenting the information makes it possible to analyze the relationships among the provinces while considering the impact of these flows in relation to the size of the province or territory. For example, much of Ontario’s negative balance is explained by negative exchanges with Alberta (-0.8 per thousand). From the standpoint of Alberta, the arrival of these migrants from Ontario has an even greater impact, considering Alberta’s smaller population (+2.8 per thousand).

Also, the Atlantic provinces had a strongly negative net migration rate to Alberta. Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia and New Brunswick all had net migration rates to Alberta below -2 per thousand. On the other hand, even when all the Atlantic provinces are taken together, from the standpoint of Alberta, the net rate is more moderate (+1.1 per thousand). It should be noted that Nova Scotia’s migratory loss was offset by positive migratory exchanges with Prince Edward Island and New Brunswick.

Relative to the size of their population, Manitoba and Saskatchewan also had considerable migratory losses to Alberta and British Columbia. Manitoba’s net interprovincial migration rates to Alberta and British Columbia were ‑2.2 per thousand and ‑1.9 per thousand, respectively. Saskatchewan’s net migration rates were ‑2.7 per thousand to Alberta and ‑2.0 per thousand to British Columbia. On the other hand, the impact of these exchanges for Alberta and British Columbia was smaller, with net rates between 0.5 per thousand and 0.7 per thousand.

British Columbia was the only province whose migratory exchanges with the other provinces and territories were all positive. Conversely, Quebec was the only province whose migratory exchanges with the other provinces and territories were all negative. However, the relative impact of these exchanges on the total population were greater for British Columbia (+4.4 per thousand) than for Quebec (-2.0 per thousand).

In summary, even though the Western provinces have a smaller demographic weight than the central provinces, the flows involving them are quite large. The main population movements are those from the central and Eastern provinces to the Western provinces and those among the Western provinces.

Age and sex structure of migrants

The age and sex structure of migrants differs from that of Canadians as a whole. From 2012/2013 to 2014/2015, just over half of interprovincial migrants were male, and this proportion was very stable from the one year to the next (51.3%, 51.4% and 51,3%). Also, in 2014/2015, a majority of migrants were aged 15 to 39 (54.2%), followed by those aged 40 to 64 (23.7%). Nearly one migrant in five (15.8%) was a child between 0 and 14 years of age and only 6.3% were aged 65 and over.

A comparison of the age pyramid of interprovincial migrants and that of Canadians overall, shown in relative values, clearly indicates the sizable differences in behaviour by age. Young adults and their young children make up the largest share of migrants. More specifically, internal mobility is greater among individuals aged 0 to 5 and 19 to 41, as shown by the points on the age pyramid. The 25-to-29 age group is the most mobile, accounting for 17.1% of interprovincial migrants whereas they represent only 6.9% of the total population. The largest difference between the two distributions is at age 27. Although they represent 1.3% of the population, people aged 27 constitute 3.6% of migrants. Their net interprovincial migration rate is 21.3 per thousand, compared to 8.0 per thousand for Canadians overall (Figure 6).

The circular figures (Figure 7) show the largest interprovincial migratory flows (20%) in 2014/2015, illustrating the migratory dynamics by age. The differences between the migratory flows of people aged 18 to 24 and those aged 65 and over were pronounced. Alberta exerted a greater pull for people aged 18 to 24 than for those aged 65 and over. Even though the figure shows only the largest flows, it displays most of the flows to Alberta from the other provinces. The two largest flows were from Ontario and British Columbia. In the 65 and over age group, British Columbia was the province that attracted the most migrants. The largest flows were from Alberta and Ontario.

For more information, see CANSIM table 051-0012: Interprovincial migrants, by age group and sex, Canada, provinces and territories annual (persons).

Internal migration between census metropolitan areas (CMAs)

The section analyzes internal migration in Canada at the CMA level. Canada has 34 CMAs,^{Note 1} as well as 13 areas representing the non-CMA part of each province and territory. At the CMA level, 760,000 people engaged in internal migration in 2012/2013 (21.7 per thousand), compared to 792,100 in 2013/2014 (22.4 per thousand). In 2013/2014, approximately one-third of these migrants (34.7%) had changed province or territory, whereas two-thirds (65.3%) had engaged in intraprovincial migration, moving from one CMA to another within the same province, including the non-CMA areas. In 2012/2013, the distribution was similar, with 34.4% interprovincial migrants and 65.6% intraprovincial migrants.

From one CMA to another, net internal migration varies considerably. In 2013/2014, it was positive for 22 CMAs and negative for 12 CMAs. This imbalance is due in part to the fact that for non-CMA areas overall, the figure was negative (-8,000). It is also attributable in part to the Toronto CMA, which had the lowest net internal migration of all CMAs (-27,700) (Table 3). By comparison, the highest internal net migration was recorded in the Edmonton CMA (+19,200). In 2012/2013 too, the Toronto and Edmonton CMAs (at -25,800 and +17,100 respectively) ranked lowest and highest.

Most CMAs (21 of 34) posted losses in interprovincial migration as well as gains in intraprovincial migration (Figure 8, quadrant 1), meaning that more people left those CMAs for other provinces than the opposite, while more people moved to those CMAs from other areas of the same province than the opposite. Also, the intensity of intraprovincial migration is generally greater than that of interprovincial migration. In particular, this was the case with the Oshawa and Barrie CMAs in Ontario, whose net interprovincial migration rates were respectively -2.3 per thousand and -2.5 per thousand, but whose net intraprovincial migration rates were the highest in Canada (+9.5 per thousand and +9.1 per thousand, respectively). Conversely, some CMAs had slightly positive net intraprovincial migration but significantly negative net interprovincial migration, resulting in negative net internal migration. This was especially the case with Winnipeg and the Quebec part of Ottawa – Gatineau, where the net interprovincial migration rates were respectively -6.1 per thousand and -4.0 per thousand.

Four CMAs in Western Canada stood out with especially high net internal migration rates: Kelowna (+16.2 per thousand), Edmonton (+14.6 per thousand), Calgary (+10.6 per thousand) and Victoria (+9.3 per thousand). These CMAs were characterized by positive intraprovincial migration, but also by highly positive rates of interprovincial migration (Figure 8, quadrant 2). In fact, of Canada’s 34 CMAs, these four, along with the Kingston CMA, were the only ones to register a net interprovincial migration rate exceeding 1 per thousand. Meanwhile, 21 CMAs registered a net interprovincial migration rate of -1 per thousand or lower. This asymmetry is consistent with the situation at the provincial level, in that net internal migration for the majority of provinces is negative, primarily to the benefit of two provinces: Alberta and British Columbia.

Vancouver was the only CMA in Canada to register negative intraprovincial migration and positive interprovincial migration (Figure 8, quadrant 3). This CMA’s net internal migration rate was negative (-1.2 per thousand).

Five CMAs had negative net interprovincial and intraprovincial migration rates (Figure 8, quadrant 4). Three of them stood out for having an especially low net interprovincial migration rate: Saint John (-8.0 per thousand), Montréal (-2.6 per thousand) and Greater Sudbury (-2.5 per thousand). In the Toronto CMA, the net interprovincial migration rate was marginally negative (-0.8 per thousand) but the net intraprovincial migration rate was the lowest in Canada (-3.8 per thousand).

In Ontario, 13 of the 15 CMAs had positive net intraprovincial migration rates in 2013/2014. This was due to the intensity of exchanges between the Toronto CMA and the province’s other CMAs. Of the 10 biggest migratory flows in Canada expressed in net rates, six were flows from the Toronto CMA to other surrounding Ontario CMAs: Oshawa, Barrie, Guelph, Hamilton, St. Catharines – Niagara and Brantford (Table 4). The British Columbia CMAs exhibited a similar dynamic, with Kelowna and Abbotsford – Mission registering significant gains due to migration from Vancouver.

In addition to migration between two CMAs, many exchanges took place between CMAs and non-CMA areas. For example, in the Atlantic provinces, three CMAs in four (Saint John’s, Moncton and Halifax) had a positive net internal migration rate despite a negative or neutral net interprovincial migration rate, since the latter was offset by migration from non-CMA areas. In Alberta, the Calgary and Edmonton CMAs had positive intraprovincial migration, which was also the result of gains from the non-CMA portion of their province. At the same time, the non-CMA portion of Alberta was notable for its strongly positive net  interprovincial migration rate (+7.0 per thousand).

Overview of the 2015/2016 period

The preliminary estimates for the 2015/2016 period that were released in September 2016 indicated a slight increase in interprovincial migration in Canada, with a total of 284,900 migrants (Figure 1 and Table 1). However, the corresponding rate, 7.9 per thousand, was slightly down from 8.0 per thousand of 2014/2015, due to the increase in Canada’s population between these two periods. Alberta, whose net interprovincial migration in 2014/2015 was the highest of any Canadian province (+21,600), had a net loss in 2015/2016 (‑2,900). This 24,500 persons difference between the two annual figures is the largest drop for a Canadian province since Ontario went from a net flow of 35,200 persons in 1987/1988 to 9,700 persons in 1988/1989.

Between 2014/2015 and 2015/2016, Ontario’s situation was the opposite of Alberta’s, since it went from a net loss (‑8,700) to a net gain (+6,200). For Ontario, this was the first net gain since 2002/2003. Only two other provinces or territories had positive net interprovincial migration in 2015/2016: British Columbia (+23,300) and Newfoundland and Labrador (+300). In Nova Scotia, the net interprovincial migration rate rose from ‑2.4 per thousand in 2014/2015 to ‑1.1 per thousand in 2015/2016, the strongest rate increase for any Canadian province or territory between these two periods.

Summary

Internal migration is an especially important component of population growth in Western Canada. Whether at the provincial level or the CMA level, Alberta and British Columbia have been the main beneficiaries of this, both historically and in the recent past. In 2013/2014, some of the CMAs in these provinces had very high net internal migration (notably Kelowna, Edmonton, Calgary and Victoria). The non-CMA areas of these provinces also had net gains. However, given the correlation between internal migration and economic conditions, the rise in the unemployment rate since 2015 in Alberta^{Note 2} could affect the dynamics of future internal migration throughout Canada. Indeed, preliminary estimates for 2015/2016 showed that for the first time since 2009, Alberta had negative net interprovincial migration.

In 2014/2015, the Atlantic provinces, especially Prince Edward Island and New Brunswick, registered losses related to interprovincial migration. The losses for Saint John (N.B.) and the non-CMA areas of the Atlantic provinces in 2013/2014 were increased by intraprovincial migration to the Saint John’s (N.L.), Moncton and Halifax CMAs.

Movements from Canada’s largest CMAs to other CMAs nearby were also a major phenomenon. In relative terms expressed as rates, the biggest flows from one CMA to another in 2013/2014 were those from Toronto and Vancouver to the smaller CMAs in their respective provinces.

Bibliography

Finnie, R. 2000. "Who Moves?: A Panel Logit Model Analysis of Inter-provincial Migration in Canada", Analytical Studies Branch, Statistics Canada, Ottawa, 27 pages.