Quarterly Demographic Estimates
October to December 2018

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Release date: March 21, 2019

Highlights for the fourth quarter of 2018 (October 1, 2018 to January 1, 2019)

• On January 1, 2019, Canada’s population was 37,314,442.
• In the fourth quarter of 2018, Canada’s population grew by 71,871.
• During this period, Canada welcomed 71,131 new immigrants, the highest number for a fourth quarter since the start of the study period.^Note 1

Highlights for the 2018 calendar year (January 1, 2018 to January 1, 2019)

• In 2018, Canada’s population grew by more than half a million for the first time since the start of the study period.^Note 2
• The number of immigrants (321,065) and the increase in the number of non-permanent residents (+160,841) were the highest in a calendar year since the start of the study period.^Note 2
• In 2018, Alberta posted positive interprovincial migratory increase (+7,736), reversing the trend of the past two years (-8,591 in 2017 and -17,821 in 2016).
• Newfoundland and Labrador was the only province where the population decreased in 2018 (-3,819), as a result of negative natural increase^Note 3 and negative interprovincial migratory increase.

Analysis

Canada’s population continues to grow quickly

Historically, the fourth quarter is when Canada’s population growth is the slowest, because of seasonal patterns associated with births and the arrival of immigrants and non-permanent residents. In the past 10 years, the average population growth rate in this quarter was 0.1%, a level lower than the average rate in the first quarter (+0.2%), the second quarter (+0.4%) and the third quarter (+0.4%). In this context, the population growth of 71,871 people (+0.2%) recorded in the fourth quarter of 2018 was relatively high. It also came on the heels of the strong growth of 73,363 (+0.2%) recorded in the fourth quarter of 2017. On January 1, 2019, Canada’s population was 37,314,442.

International migratory increase,^Note 4 estimated at 52,411 between October 1 and December 31, 2018, remained the main driver of Canada’s population growth. International migratory increase in the fourth quarter mostly stemmed from the arrival of new immigrants (71,131). This was the highest number of immigrants to arrive in a fourth quarter since the start of the study period.^Note 1 This high level of immigration was offset by the departure of 15,967 emigrants and a slight decrease in the number of non-permanent residents (-2,231).

Population growth is highest in Alberta and Nunavut and lowest in Newfoundland and Labrador

Alberta and Nunavut (+0.4%) saw their populations grow the fastest during the fourth quarter of 2018, ahead of the Northwest Territories and Manitoba (+0.3%). In Ontario, population growth was strong (+0.2%) for a fourth quarter, continuing a trend begun in 2016. In Nova Scotia (+0.1%), the population growth rate was below the Canadian average, but was still the highest observed since 1992.

The population of Newfoundland and Labrador fell by -1,283 (-0.2%) in the fourth quarter. This decline was in line with those recorded in the fourth quarters of 2017 (-0.2%) and 2016 (-0.1%).

International migration is the main driver of growth in most provinces

In 9 of the 10 provinces, international migration was the main driver of growth in the fourth quarter. Only Nova Scotia posted an interprovincial migratory increase (+596) greater than the international migratory increase (+461). In the three territories, natural increase rates were among the highest in the country and were mainly responsible for the increase in their populations.

In Newfoundland and Labrador, the population decline was due to the difference in the number of births and deaths (-380) and to negative interprovincial migration (-1,121).

Manitoba and Saskatchewan also had more interprovincial out-migrants than in-migrants in the fourth quarter, with net migration of -1,948 and -1,603 respectively. This was the fifth consecutive quarter in which the net migrations of these provinces were the two lowest in Canada. However, these deficits were largely offset by the other population growth factors. Net international migration in Manitoba (+4,161) and in Saskatchewan (+2,851) were the two highest rates in Canada, at 0.3% and 0.2% respectively. In addition, only the natural increase rates in Nunavut (+0.5%) and the Northwest Territories (0.2%) were higher than those of Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Ontario, Alberta and Yukon (0.1%).

Two provinces, Ontario and Alberta, as well as the Northwest Territories, benefitted from the positive contributions of natural increase, international migration and interprovincial migration. While an international migratory increase of 24,162 was the main contributor to Ontario’s total growth (69%), Alberta’s growth was due almost equally to natural increase (41%) and international migration (42%). Even though net interprovincial migration contributed less to the growth, Ontario and Alberta posted the highest net interprovincial migration in Canada (+3,502 and +2,623 respectively).

Canada’s population grew by half a million in 2018

With the availability of fourth-quarter population estimates, estimates for the 2018 calendar year can now be completed. In 2018, Canada’s population grew by 528,421, topping the half-million mark for the first time during a calendar year since the late 1950s. This increase represented an annual population growth rate of 1.4%, the highest rate since 1990. A strong increase in the Canadian population had already been noted after annual estimates for the period from July 1, 2017 to June 30, 2018 were published. During that period, Canada’s population grew by 518,588 (+1.4%).

International migratory increase, which totalled 425,245 people, was the main contributor to this population growth, well ahead of natural increase (103,176). This increase from international migration stemmed from the number of immigrants (321,065) and net non-permanent residents (+160,841), which were both the highest in a calendar year since the start of the study period.^Note 2

The population of several provinces grew considerably in 2018. For a third consecutive year, Prince Edward Island (+2.1%) posted a population growth rate of 2.0% or higher, following five years during which growth never exceeded 0.9%. In Nova Scotia, the population growth rate (1.1%) was at its highest since 1983. Quebec’s population growth rate of 1.1% in 2018 had only been this high twice since the start of the study period: in 1988 and 2009. Lastly, for Ontario, the last time the population growth rate was higher than in 2018 (+1.8%) was during the 1987 to 1989 period.

Newfoundland and Labrador (-0.7%) and the Northwest Territories (-0.8%) saw their populations decline between January 1, 2018 and January 1, 2019. Such a population decline has not been observed in a Canadian province or territory since 2005, when it also occurred in Newfoundland and Labrador (-0.8%).

Notes