Quarterly Demographic Estimates
April to June 2018

Release date: September 27, 2018

Highlights

Analysis

Canada’s population continues to grow at a steady pace

For the first time, the estimates in this publication are based on the 2016 Census counts adjusted for census net undercoverage and incompletely enumerated Indian reserves, to which is added the estimated population growth for the period from May 10, 2016, to the date of the estimate. The data starting from July 2001 were also revised.

The analysis in this publication is based on preliminary data. These data will be revised over the coming years, and it is possible that some trends described in this publication will change as a result of these revisions.
Therefore, this publication should be interpreted with caution.

According to preliminary population estimates, Canada’s population was 37,058,856 on July 1, 2018.

Between April 1 and July 1, 2018, the Canadian population increased by 168,687. This quarterly increase is the highest in absolute numbers for a second quarter during the study period from July 1971 to July 2018.Note 2 All quarters combined, the only time the increase was greater was between July 1 and October 1, 2017, when Canada recorded a significant increase in the number of non-permanent residents.Note 3 Moreover, Canada’s population growth rate was 0.5% between April 1 and July 1, 2018, a level that had not been reached for a second quarter since 1989.Note 4

Chart A1

Data table for Chart A1 
Data table for chart a1
Table summary
This table displays the results of Data table for chart a1. The information is grouped by year (appearing as row headers), percent (appearing as column headers).
year percent
1998 0.25
1999 0.29
2000 0.30
2001 0.35
2002 0.34
2003 0.30
2004 0.29
2005 0.32
2006 0.31
2007 0.31
2008 0.36
2009 0.35
2010 0.34
2011 0.32
2012 0.35
2013 0.36
2014 0.32
2015 0.26
2016 0.39
2017 0.40
2018 0.46

International migration continues to account for most of the population growth

Nationally, population growth is based on two factors: natural increaseNote 5 and international migratory increase.Note 6 Provincial and territorial population estimates also factor in interprovincial migratory increase.

International migratory increase remained the main driver of Canada’s population growth, with an estimated increase of 138,978 between April 1 and July 1, 2018. All quarters combined, this was the highest level seen during the study period from July 1971 to July 2018.Note 7 This increase is due to a rise in both the number of immigrants and the number of non-permanent residents.

In the second quarter of 2018, the number of new immigrants was 87,661. During the study period (1971 to 2018), the only time Canada received more immigrants in three months was in the second quarter of 2016 (+88,302).Note 8

Moreover, Canada posted an increase in the number of non-permanent residents (+60,446) in the second quarter of 2018. This increase was significantly higher than those observed in recent years. All quarters combined, the only time Canada had a higher net increase in non-permanent residents was recorded in the third quarter of 2017 (+79,289).Note 9 The increase in non-permanent residents between April 1 and July 1, 2018 was primarily the result of an increase in the number of work permit holders and, to a lesser extent, in the number of study permit holders and refugee claimants.Note 10 The components of net emigration (emigration, return emigration and net temporary emigration) remained stable (-9,129).

According to preliminary estimates, natural increase in the second quarter of 2018 was 29,709, the third lowest estimated level for a second quarter.Note 11 Natural increase is the difference between 97,706 births and 67,997 deaths. The last time the number of births for a second quarter was higher was in 1995. However, the number of deaths has never been as high for a second quarter. In the coming years, natural increase is expected to continue decreasing, mainly as a result of population aging which results in an increase in the number of deaths each year.

Chart A2

Data table for Chart A2 
Data table for chart a2
Table summary
This table displays the results of Data table for chart a2. The information is grouped by year (appearing as row headers), Natural increase, International migratory increase and Population growth, calculated using number units of measure (appearing as column headers).
year Natural increase International migratory increase Population growth
number
1998 38,520 38,959 74,993
1999 35,885 53,191 86,590
2000 34,892 59,296 91,700
2001 33,316 78,621 109,906
2002 29,589 78,709 106,697
2003 30,645 64,216 93,260
2004 30,923 64,662 93,986
2005 32,255 71,155 101,810
2006 34,143 71,177 100,871
2007 36,491 73,750 103,011
2008 36,669 90,156 119,598
2009 38,482 86,365 117,620
2010 36,864 86,017 115,653
2011 36,144 79,041 108,950
2012 35,580 91,357 121,443
2013 34,657 95,577 124,738
2014 34,081 85,318 113,902
2015 32,973 64,157 91,637
2016 31,890 109,648 139,184
2017 29,649 115,831 145,480
2018 29,709 138,978 168,687

Population growth was everywhere, except in Newfoundland and Labrador and the Northwest Territories

The population grewNote 12 in all provinces and territories in the second quarter of 2018, except in Newfoundland and Labrador (-0.2%) and the Northwest Territories (-1.0%). Nunavut (+1.3%), Yukon (+1.0%) and Prince Edward Island (+0.8%) had higher population growth rates than Canada’s (+0.5%).

Compared with the same period last year, an increase in the population growth rate was observed in Nova Scotia, Quebec, Alberta and Nunavut. The data also show a shift in the growth rate from positive to negative in the Northwest Territories, and from negligible to negative in Newfoundland and Labrador.

Chart A3

Data table for Chart A3 
Data table for chart a3
Table summary
This table displays the results of Data table for chart a3. The information is grouped by Provinces and territories (appearing as row headers), 2017, 2018, 2017 (Canada) and 2018 (Canada), calculated using percent units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Provinces and territories 2017 2018 2017 (Canada) 2018 (Canada)
percent
N.L. -0.05 -0.21 0.40 0.46
P.E.I. 1.08 0.81 0.40 0.46
N.S. 0.30 0.44 0.40 0.46
N.B. 0.25 0.23 0.40 0.46
Que. 0.34 0.40 0.40 0.46
Ont. 0.46 0.54 0.40 0.46
Man. 0.48 0.39 0.40 0.46
Sask. 0.36 0.28 0.40 0.46
Alta. 0.32 0.44 0.40 0.46
B.C. 0.46 0.49 0.40 0.46
Y.T. 1.14 0.97 0.40 0.46
N.W.T. 0.23 -1.05 0.40 0.46
Nvt. 0.67 1.29 0.40 0.46

International migration is the main source of population growth in provinces

During the second quarter of 2018, international migratory increase was the main driver of population growth in all provinces that posted a population gain, and in Yukon. Consequently, international migratory increase in the second quarter either peaked or has rarely been this high everywhere except in Newfoundland and Labrador, Alberta, the Northwest Territories and Nunavut. Furthermore, along with natural increase, international migration offset interprovincial migratory losses in Quebec, Manitoba and Saskatchewan. It also compensated for natural decrease (more deaths than births) in Nova Scotia and New Brunswick.

In Alberta, international migratory increase accounted for 51% of the population growth, while natural increase represented 45% and interprovincial migration 4%. Nunavut and the Northwest Territories continued to post the highest rates of natural increase, with 0.5% and 0.3% respectively. Fertility levels in these two territories are among the highest in Canada.Note 13

In Quebec, Ontario and British Columbia, the three most populous provinces, an increase in the number of non-permanent residents accounted for part of the international migratory increase. Quebec posted a gain of 19,506 non-permanent residents, a level never before seen in any quarter.Note 14 Ontario recorded an unprecedented increase in the number of non-permanent residents in a second quarter (+28,329), as did British Columbia, with a gain of 8,189 non-permanent residents. The Atlantic provinces (except Newfoundland and Labrador), Manitoba and Yukon also posted a peak in the number of non-permanent residents.

Chart A4

Data table for Chart A4 
Data table for chart a4
Table summary
This table displays the results of Data table for chart a4 Natural increase, International migratory increase, Interprovincial migratory increase and Population growth, calculated using rate (%) units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Natural increase International migratory increase Interprovincial migratory increase Population growth
rate (%)
Canada 0.08 0.38 0.00 0.46
N.L. -0.05 0.07 -0.22 -0.21
P.E.I. 0.06 0.65 0.10 0.81
N.S. -0.01 0.33 0.12 0.44
N.B. -0.02 0.26 -0.01 0.23
Que. 0.06 0.37 -0.03 0.40
Ont. 0.08 0.44 0.02 0.54
Man. 0.12 0.48 -0.20 0.39
Sask. 0.14 0.38 -0.24 0.28
Alta. 0.20 0.22 0.02 0.44
B.C. 0.04 0.37 0.08 0.49
Y.T. 0.17 0.52 0.28 0.97
N.W.T. 0.27 0.02 -1.34 -1.05
Nvt. 0.51 0.00 0.78 1.29

Table A1
Population on July 1st 2018 and population growth, second quarter, 2017 and 2018, Canada, provinces and territories
Table summary
This table displays the results of Table A1 Population on July 1 2018 and population growth Population , Population growth for the second quarter, 2017 and 2018, calculated using number and rate (%) units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Population Population growth for the second quarter
2017 2018
number rate (%) number rate (%)
Canada 37,058,856 145,480 0.40 168,687 0.46
N.L. 525,355 -249 -0.05 -1,107 -0.21
P.E.I. 153,244 1,620 1.08 1,235 0.81
N.S. 959,942 2,890 0.30 4,234 0.44
N.B. 770,633 1,926 0.25 1,768 0.23
Que. 8,390,499 27,822 0.34 33,800 0.40
Ont. 14,322,757 63,960 0.46 76,722 0.54
Man. 1,352,154 6,414 0.48 5,303 0.39
Sask. 1,162,062 4,155 0.36 3,226 0.28
Alta. 4,307,110 13,711 0.32 18,783 0.44
B.C. 4,991,687 22,427 0.46 24,312 0.49
Y.T. 40,476 451 1.14 389 0.97
N.W.T. 44,541 104 0.23 -470 -1.05
Nvt. 38,396 249 0.67 492 1.29

British Columbia, Ontario, Nova Scotia and Alberta, gain in their migratory exchanges with the other provinces and territories

British Columbia had the strongest interprovincial gains (+4,102) in the second quarter of 2018, continuing a trend spanning the last 21 quarters of uninterrupted gains in interprovincial migration. In its exchanges with the other provinces and territories, British Columbia’s migratory gains came primarily from the Prairie provinces.

Among all provinces and territories, Ontario posted the second highest interprovincial migratory increase in absolute numbers. Net interprovincial migration in the province was positive (+3,274) for a twelfth straight quarter, a first since the early 2000s. The province gained in its exchanges with Quebec, Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland and Labrador.

In Nova Scotia, net interprovincial migration remained positive (+1,182) for an eleventh consecutive quarter, a first since 1985. The province gained in its exchanges with all provinces, particularly at the expense of Ontario, Newfoundland and Labrador and British Columbia.

According to preliminary population estimates, Alberta had positive net interprovincial migration (+842) for a second consecutive quarter, following 10 quarters of interprovincial migration losses. In its exchanges with the other provinces and territories, Alberta’s migratory gains came primarily from Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Newfoundland and Labrador and the Northwest Territories. These gains were partially offset by migratory losses to British Columbia.

In Quebec, interprovincial migratory increase remained negative (-2,539). All quarters combined, the last time net interprovincial migration was greater than zero in Quebec (+15) was in the fourth quarter of 2009.

The second quarter of 2018 marked nine consecutive quarters of interprovincial migratory losses for Newfoundland and Labrador (-1,182). The last time the province had such a long period of quarterly deficits was from 1991 to 2007. Migratory losses with Ontario, Alberta and Nova Scotia were especially pronounced.

Manitoba (-2,743) saw its largest interprovincial migratory losses, continuing a period of ongoing deficits since the second quarter of 2004. Saskatchewan (-2,818) also had its largest interprovincial migration losses, which have been accumulating since the third quarter of 2013. Both provinces had more significant outflows to Ontario, Alberta and British Columbia.

Chart A5

Data table for Chart A5 
Data table for chart a5
Table summary
This table displays the results of Data table for chart a5. The information is grouped by Provinces and territories (appearing as row headers), In-migrants, Out-migrants and Net, calculated using number units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Provinces and territories In-migrants Out-migrants Net
number
N.L. 2,327 -3,509 -1,182
P.E.I. 1,730 -1,578 152
N.S. 6,235 -5,053 1,182
N.B. 4,455 -4,532 -77
Que. 8,325 -10,864 -2,539
Ont. 28,752 -25,478 3,274
Man. 4,110 -6,853 -2,743
Sask. 5,721 -8,539 -2,818
Alta. 24,038 -23,196 842
B.C. 22,240 -18,138 4,102
Y.T. 744 -632 112
N.W.T. 640 -1,241 -601
Nvt. 926 -630 296

Notes

 
Date modified: