Quarterly Demographic Estimates
April to June 2018

View the most recent version.

Archived Content

Information identified as archived is provided for reference, research or recordkeeping purposes. It is not subject to the Government of Canada Web Standards and has not been altered or updated since it was archived. Please "contact us" to request a format other than those available.

Archived

This page has been archived on the Web.

Release date: September 27, 2018

Highlights

• On July 1, 2018, Canada’s population was estimated at 37,058,856.
• Between April 1 and July 1, 2018, Canada’s population grew by 168,687 (+0.5%), the second largest increase in absolute numbers for a single quarter during the study period from 1971 to 2018.^{Note 1}
• In the second quarter of 2018, Canada’s population growth was mostly due to international migration (+138,978), a level never before seen for any quarter.
• Population growth was higher in Nunavut (+1.3%), in Yukon (+1.0%) and in Prince Edward Island (+0.8%) than in Canada.
• Preliminary population estimates for the last quarter show that Alberta recorded interprovincial migration gains (+842) for a second consecutive quarter, following 10 quarters of continuous interprovincial migratory losses.
• In Ontario, interprovincial migration was positive in the second quarter (+3,274), marking 12 consecutive quarters of gains in its exchanges with the other provinces.

Analysis

Canada’s population continues to grow at a steady pace

According to preliminary population estimates, Canada’s population was 37,058,856 on July 1, 2018.

Between April 1 and July 1, 2018, the Canadian population increased by 168,687. This quarterly increase is the highest in absolute numbers for a second quarter during the study period from July 1971 to July 2018.^{Note 2} All quarters combined, the only time the increase was greater was between July 1 and October 1, 2017, when Canada recorded a significant increase in the number of non-permanent residents.^{Note 3} Moreover, Canada’s population growth rate was 0.5% between April 1 and July 1, 2018, a level that had not been reached for a second quarter since 1989.^{Note 4}

International migration continues to account for most of the population growth

Nationally, population growth is based on two factors: natural increase^{Note 5} and international migratory increase.^{Note 6} Provincial and territorial population estimates also factor in interprovincial migratory increase.

International migratory increase remained the main driver of Canada’s population growth, with an estimated increase of 138,978 between April 1 and July 1, 2018. All quarters combined, this was the highest level seen during the study period from July 1971 to July 2018.^{Note 7} This increase is due to a rise in both the number of immigrants and the number of non-permanent residents.

In the second quarter of 2018, the number of new immigrants was 87,661. During the study period (1971 to 2018), the only time Canada received more immigrants in three months was in the second quarter of 2016 (+88,302).^{Note 8}

Moreover, Canada posted an increase in the number of non-permanent residents (+60,446) in the second quarter of 2018. This increase was significantly higher than those observed in recent years. All quarters combined, the only time Canada had a higher net increase in non-permanent residents was recorded in the third quarter of 2017 (+79,289).^{Note 9} The increase in non-permanent residents between April 1 and July 1, 2018 was primarily the result of an increase in the number of work permit holders and, to a lesser extent, in the number of study permit holders and refugee claimants.^{Note 10} The components of net emigration (emigration, return emigration and net temporary emigration) remained stable (-9,129).

According to preliminary estimates, natural increase in the second quarter of 2018 was 29,709, the third lowest estimated level for a second quarter.^{Note 11} Natural increase is the difference between 97,706 births and 67,997 deaths. The last time the number of births for a second quarter was higher was in 1995. However, the number of deaths has never been as high for a second quarter. In the coming years, natural increase is expected to continue decreasing, mainly as a result of population aging which results in an increase in the number of deaths each year.

Population growth was everywhere, except in Newfoundland and Labrador and the Northwest Territories

The population grew^{Note 12} in all provinces and territories in the second quarter of 2018, except in Newfoundland and Labrador (-0.2%) and the Northwest Territories (-1.0%). Nunavut (+1.3%), Yukon (+1.0%) and Prince Edward Island (+0.8%) had higher population growth rates than Canada’s (+0.5%).

Compared with the same period last year, an increase in the population growth rate was observed in Nova Scotia, Quebec, Alberta and Nunavut. The data also show a shift in the growth rate from positive to negative in the Northwest Territories, and from negligible to negative in Newfoundland and Labrador.

International migration is the main source of population growth in provinces

During the second quarter of 2018, international migratory increase was the main driver of population growth in all provinces that posted a population gain, and in Yukon. Consequently, international migratory increase in the second quarter either peaked or has rarely been this high everywhere except in Newfoundland and Labrador, Alberta, the Northwest Territories and Nunavut. Furthermore, along with natural increase, international migration offset interprovincial migratory losses in Quebec, Manitoba and Saskatchewan. It also compensated for natural decrease (more deaths than births) in Nova Scotia and New Brunswick.

In Alberta, international migratory increase accounted for 51% of the population growth, while natural increase represented 45% and interprovincial migration 4%. Nunavut and the Northwest Territories continued to post the highest rates of natural increase, with 0.5% and 0.3% respectively. Fertility levels in these two territories are among the highest in Canada.^{Note 13}

In Quebec, Ontario and British Columbia, the three most populous provinces, an increase in the number of non-permanent residents accounted for part of the international migratory increase. Quebec posted a gain of 19,506 non-permanent residents, a level never before seen in any quarter.^{Note 14} Ontario recorded an unprecedented increase in the number of non-permanent residents in a second quarter (+28,329), as did British Columbia, with a gain of 8,189 non-permanent residents. The Atlantic provinces (except Newfoundland and Labrador), Manitoba and Yukon also posted a peak in the number of non-permanent residents.

British Columbia, Ontario, Nova Scotia and Alberta, gain in their migratory exchanges with the other provinces and territories

British Columbia had the strongest interprovincial gains (+4,102) in the second quarter of 2018, continuing a trend spanning the last 21 quarters of uninterrupted gains in interprovincial migration. In its exchanges with the other provinces and territories, British Columbia’s migratory gains came primarily from the Prairie provinces.

Among all provinces and territories, Ontario posted the second highest interprovincial migratory increase in absolute numbers. Net interprovincial migration in the province was positive (+3,274) for a twelfth straight quarter, a first since the early 2000s. The province gained in its exchanges with Quebec, Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland and Labrador.

In Nova Scotia, net interprovincial migration remained positive (+1,182) for an eleventh consecutive quarter, a first since 1985. The province gained in its exchanges with all provinces, particularly at the expense of Ontario, Newfoundland and Labrador and British Columbia.

According to preliminary population estimates, Alberta had positive net interprovincial migration (+842) for a second consecutive quarter, following 10 quarters of interprovincial migration losses. In its exchanges with the other provinces and territories, Alberta’s migratory gains came primarily from Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Newfoundland and Labrador and the Northwest Territories. These gains were partially offset by migratory losses to British Columbia.

In Quebec, interprovincial migratory increase remained negative (-2,539). All quarters combined, the last time net interprovincial migration was greater than zero in Quebec (+15) was in the fourth quarter of 2009.

The second quarter of 2018 marked nine consecutive quarters of interprovincial migratory losses for Newfoundland and Labrador (-1,182). The last time the province had such a long period of quarterly deficits was from 1991 to 2007. Migratory losses with Ontario, Alberta and Nova Scotia were especially pronounced.

Manitoba (-2,743) saw its largest interprovincial migratory losses, continuing a period of ongoing deficits since the second quarter of 2004. Saskatchewan (-2,818) also had its largest interprovincial migration losses, which have been accumulating since the third quarter of 2013. Both provinces had more significant outflows to Ontario, Alberta and British Columbia.

Notes