Quarterly Demographic Estimates
October to December 2017

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Release date: March 22, 2018

Highlights

• On January 1, 2018, Canada’s population was estimated at 36,963,854.
• Between October 1, 2017, and January 1, 2018, Canada’s population rose by 78,805 (+0.2%), the highest increase for a fourth quarter since 1988.
• Canada’s population growth in the fourth quarter of 2017 was largely due to international migration (+55,048), an uncommonly high level for a fourth quarter.
• Population growth was above the national average in Yukon (+0.4%), Ontario, Manitoba and Alberta (+0.3% each).
• Preliminary estimates for the last quarter indicate that Alberta posted interprovincial migration gains for a second consecutive quarter, albeit modest ones (+302), following eight consecutive negative quarters.

Analysis

Canada’s population continues to grow at a steady pace

According to preliminary estimates, Canada’s population was 36,963,854 on January 1, 2018, up 78,805 from October 1, 2017. Not since 1988 has Canada recorded such a high increase for a fourth quarter. In terms of proportion, Canada’s population rose 0.2% between October 1, 2017, and January 1, 2018.

International migration continues to account for most of the population growth

Population growth at the national level is based on two factors: natural increase^{Note 1} and international migratory increase,^{Note 2} while provincial and territorial population estimates also factor in interprovincial migratory increase.

International migratory increase remained the main driver of Canadian population growth, with an estimated increase of 55,048 between October 1, 2017, and January 1, 2018. Such strong growth has rarely been seen during a fourth quarter since the beginning of the period covered by the current demographic accounting system (July 1971). In Canada, the increase in the previous quarter was mainly driven by a gain in the number of immigrants (+65,539). This was the second highest level in a fourth quarter since 1991, after the fourth quarter of 2015 (+69,740). Canada also posted an increase in the number of non-permanent residents (+2,087) in the fourth quarter of 2017, when this time of year typically sees a decline. This overall increase was the result of a smaller decrease in work permit holders and an increase in the number of refugee claimants.^{Note 3} The components of net emigration (emigration, return emigration and net temporary emigration) remained stable (-12,578).

According to preliminary estimates, natural increase in the fourth quarter of 2017 was 23,757, or the difference between 95,945 births and 72,188 deaths. Natural increase fell below the 24,000 mark, a phenomenon not seen in a fourth quarter since 2004. On account of seasonality, the number of births in Canada is often highest between July and September (the summer months). Seasonality is also observed for deaths, the difference being that there are more deaths during the first quarter, i.e., from January to March (the winter months). In the coming years, the lessening in natural increase is expected to accentuate, mainly due to population aging, which leads to an increase in the number of deaths observed each year.

Population growth observed from central to western Canada and in Yukon

Except in the Atlantic provinces,^{Note 4} the Northwest Territories and Nunavut, the population grew in the other provinces and in Yukon in the fourth quarter of 2017. Newfoundland and Labrador (-0.2%), the Northwest Territories (-0.3%) and Nunavut (-0.1%) experienced a population decline in the fourth quarter of 2017. The population of the other Atlantic provinces remained stable.^{Note 5}

Yukon had the highest population growth rate (+0.4%) in Canada. Elsewhere, the population growth rate was 0.3% in Ontario, Manitoba and Alberta, above the national average (+0.2%).

Compared with the same period last year, the population growth rate was up in Quebec, Ontario, Alberta, British Columbia and Yukon (Chart A3). In the Northwest Territories and Nunavut, growth rates shifted from positive to negative.

International migration is the main source of population growth in most provinces

During the fourth quarter of 2017, international migratory increase was the main driver of population growth in almost all provinces that posted a population gain, and in Yukon. Moreover, Quebec, Ontario, Manitoba and Yukon have rarely posted such strong international migration growth in a fourth quarter. Moreover, international migration somewhat offset some of the interprovincial migration losses in Prince Edward Island and the negative natural increase (more deaths than births) in New Brunswick.

In Alberta, natural increase accounted for 56% of the population growth, compared with 42% for international migratory increase (with positive interprovincial migration accounting for the rest). The Northwest Territories and Nunavut continued to post the highest rates of natural increase, though these were not high enough to offset the loss of individuals migrating to other provinces or territories. Fertility levels in these two territories are among the highest in Canada.^{Note 6}

In Quebec, Manitoba and British Columbia, an increase in the number of non-permanent residents was partly behind the gain in international migratory increase. Quebec recorded an increase of 3,078 non-permanent residents in the fourth quarter, when this time of year typically sees a decline. In addition, Manitoba had a positive net number of permanent residents in the fourth quarter of 2017 (+1,783), for a third consecutive year. In British Columbia, the number of non-permanent residents rose 1,066, after seven years of fourth-quarter losses. Lastly, though Ontario posted a loss in the net number of non-permanent residents (-612), the loss was smaller than usual.^{Note 7}

According to preliminary demographic estimates, net interprovincial migration was up slightly in Alberta (+302) for a second consecutive quarter, following eight straight quarters of interprovincial migratory losses (not shown). In its exchanges with other provinces and territories, Alberta’s migratory increases came mainly from Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Nova Scotia, and Newfoundland and Labrador. However, this gain was partially offset by losses to British Columbia and Ontario.

Ontario recorded positive net interprovincial migration (+4,376) for a tenth consecutive quarter, a first since the early 2000s. Ontario continued to post the strongest interprovincial migratory increase in absolute numbers. Although the influx came from all provinces and territories, the highest proportion was from Quebec, the Prairie provinces and British Columbia. British Columbia ranked second for interprovincial gains (+854), with migrants coming primarily from the Prairie provinces. In Nova Scotia, net interprovincial migration was positive (+305) for a fourth consecutive quarter, not seen since 1984. These interprovincial gains were mainly at the expense of New Brunswick and British Columbia.

In Quebec, interprovincial migratory growth remained negative (-992), although less than usual (-2,054 on average in the fourth quarter over the last six years). All quarters considered, the last time Quebec saw net interprovincial migration above zero was the fourth quarter of 2009 (+15). Net interprovincial migration was also negative in Manitoba (-1,855) and Saskatchewan (-1,780), with significant outflows to Ontario, Alberta and British Columbia.

Notes