Quarterly Demographic Estimates
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The estimates released in this publication are based on 2016 Census counts adjusted for census net undercoverage and incompletely enumerated Indian reserves to which are added the population growth estimates for the period from May 10, 2016 to the date of the estimate.
These estimates are not to be confused with the 2021 Census population counts, which will be released on February 9, 2022. Total population estimates based on the 2021 Census counts, adjusted for census net undercoverage and incompletely enumerated Indian reserves, will be available in September 2023.
The analysis in this publication is based on preliminary data. These data will be revised over the coming year, and it is possible that some trends described in this publication will change as a result of these revisions. Therefore, this analysis should be interpreted with caution.
Most of the components, used to produce preliminary population estimates, are estimated using demographic models or based on data sources less complete or reliable, albeit more timely, than those used for updated or final estimates.
Some of the estimation methods typically used were adjusted to account for the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic (deaths and the components of emigration). Given that the adjustments are similar to what was done in the second quarter of 2020, please refer to the Technical Supplement: Production of Demographic Estimates for the Second Quarter of 2020 in the Context of COVID-19, with two exceptions. For returning emigration and temporary returns, data from the Registration of Canadians Abroad (ROCA) were not used for the third quarter of 2021. For births, the data for Manitoba were adjusted to account for a known data processing backlog beginning at the end of 2020.
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