Analysis

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As of April 1, 2011, the Canadian population was estimated at 34,349,200, up 70,800 (+0.2%) from January 1.

The population increase recorded in the first quarter of 2011 was lower than the estimated 85,200 increase during the same period in 2010. This lower population growth is mainly a reflection of a decrease in net international migration.

Net international migration was 49,300 in the first quarter of 2011, down from the same quarter of 2010 (61,300). This decrease is mainly due to decreased immigration. During the first quarter of 2011, Canada received 49,500 immigrants, compared to 58,100 for the same period in 2010.

Natural increase was estimated at 21,500, down from the 23,800 recorded in the first quarter of 2010. For a first quarter, this was nevertheless higher than the low of 18,100 reached in 2005.

Among the provinces, Alberta (+0.4%) had the fastest growth rate in the first quarter. By contrast, Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia and New Brunswick saw their population decline during the quarter. The other provinces had a growth rate similar to the national average.

In the first quarter of 2011, all provinces except Manitoba and Saskatchewan posted lower natural increase than in the same quarter of the previous year. The four provinces in the Atlantic region even registered negative natural increase.

Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island and Manitoba were the only provinces to register higher levels of net international migration than in the first quarter of 2010. , Only Quebec, Ontario and Alberta registered higher levels of net interprovincial migration.

Atlantic region

Prince Edward Island was the only province in the Atlantic region to post an increase in its population. Both Newfoundland and Labrador and Nova Scotia saw their populations decline in the first quarter of 2011, while the population of New Brunswick remained relatively stable.

The population of Newfoundland and Labrador declined by 700 (-0.1%) during the quarter to an estimated 508,400 on April 1, 2011. This change is due in part to negative interprovincial net migration (-500), the lowest figure since 2007. It was mainly in its exchanges with Alberta that Newfoundland and Labrador registered losses (-900), exceeding the deficit recorded for the same period in the previous year (-200).

Prince Edward Island posted growth of nearly 400 (+0.2%), reaching a population estimated at 143,800 as of April 1, 2011. This is the strongest first-quarter increase since 1974. The province received nearly 500 immigrants, the highest level for a first quarter since 1972. ¹  In relative terms, this is the highest immigration level of any province.

The population of Nova Scotia was estimated at 942,300 on April 1, 2011, down by nearly 1,100 (-0.1%) from January 1. Since 1971,¹ quarterly losses have exceeded this level only twice, in the first quarter of 2005 (-1,200) and the fourth quarter of 1999 (-1,300). The main factor in this decrease was net interprovincial migration (-1,000). Nova Scotia had not seen such large losses in its exchanges with other provinces since the first quarter of 2007. Nova Scotia also registered its lowest net international migration (500) for a first quarter since 2007.

The population of New Brunswick changed little in the first quarter of 2011. With a slight decrease of 200, it was estimated at 753,000 on April 1. It is the first quarterly population decrease since the fourth quarter of 2006. Net international migration (200) was offset by losses in net interprovincial migration (-200). New Brunswick's largest losses were in its exchanges with Alberta (-300).

Central Canada

The population of Quebec was estimated at 7,957,600 on April 1 2011, up 14,600 (+0.2%) from January 1. Natural increase in the province was 4,600 during the first quarter, down from the level recorded during the same period in 2010 (5,800). Quebec also posted its smallest deficit in interprovincial migration (-900) for a first quarter since 2005.

Ontario registered an increase of 28,400 (+0.2%) during the first quarter of 2011, reaching a population estimated at 13,310,900 on April 1. This is the smallest first-quarter growth since 1996, mainly owing to the lowest immigration level (20,100) posted by the province in a first quarter since 1988. The province also posted its lowest natural increase (6,900) since 1971.¹ However, Ontario's net interprovincial migration was -700, the smallest first-quarter loss since 2004. In particular, during the first quarter of 2010 and 2011, Ontario had a smaller loss in its exchanges with Alberta than in previous years.

Western Canada

In Western Canada, only Alberta had a level of growth above the national average, with the growth rate of the other provinces being basically the same as for Canada as a whole. Alberta was the only province in western Canada posting net inflows of interprovincial migration in the first quarter.

The population of Manitoba grew by slightly more than 2,700 (+0.2%) during the first quarter of 2011 and was estimated at 1,246,400 on April 1. The province registered net international migration of nearly 2,800, the highest level for a first quarter since 1972.¹ However, the province registered losses in its exchanges with other provinces, registering net interprovincial migration of -1,000, the largest first-quarter loss since 2006. It was in its exchanges with Alberta (-500) and British Columbia (-400) that the province registered the largest losses during the quarter.

The population of Saskatchewan was estimated at 1,054,000 as of April 1, 2011, an increase of just over 1,900 (+0.2%) compared to January 1. This was the largest population increase for a first quarter since 2006. During the first quarter of 2011, Saskatchewan's net international migration (1,500) was essentially unchanged from the same quarter of 2010 and natural increase (1,000) was slightly higher. However, the growth of the province's population was tempered by a loss (-600) in its exchanges with other provinces. This is the first time since the third quarter of 2006 that the province has registered negative net interprovincial migration. This deficit is mainly due to a trend change in exchanges with Alberta, with net migration between the two provinces going from just over 400 in the first quarter of 2010 to a deficit of slightly more than 700 in the first quarter of 2011.

Alberta recorded population growth of nearly 15,500 (+0.4%) in the first quarter of 2011, reaching a population estimated at 3,758,200 on April 1, 2011. This was the highest growth rate in Canada. Alberta registered gains in its exchanges with other provinces, posting net interprovincial migration of nearly 5,300, the highest level for a first quarter since 2006. Compared to the first quarter of 2010, the province posted increased net migration in its exchanges with all provinces except Quebec. It was in its exchanges with British Columbia that Alberta recorded the largest gains, going from a deficit of slightly more than 500 in the first quarter of 2010 to a surplus of nearly 900 in the first quarter of 2011. However, Alberta recorded its lowest net international migration (3,600) for a first quarter since 2004.

The population of British Columbia was estimated at 4,563,300 on April 1, 2011, an increase of slightly more than 9,200 (+0.2%) since January 1. This is the smallest population increase for a first quarter since 2005. In the first quarter of 2011, British Columbia posted net international migration slightly over 7,000, the lowest level for a first quarter since 1998. Additionally, the province's net interprovincial migration was slightly negative. This is the first time since the second quarter of 2003 that British Columbia has registered a loss in its exchanges with other provinces. The province's largest deficit was in its exchanges with Alberta (-900).

The territories

The population of the three territories changed little in the first quarter of 2011.

The population of Yukon was estimated at 34,400 on April 1 2011, having edged up by close to 100.

The population of the Northwest Territories remained relatively unchanged and was estimated at 43,500 on April 1, 2011. Natural increase was offset by negative net interprovincial migration.

The population of Nunavut was estimated at 33,400 on April 1, 2011, registering a slight increase of just over 100. This was the smallest first-quarter population increase since 2008. Natural increase was the only factor behind the territory's population growth.