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Quarterly Demographic Estimates
July to September 2008
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Analysis
Canada’s population posts strongest growth since 1990
Canada’s population grew by 0.39% in the third quarter of 2008, the strongest quarterly growth since 1990. On October 1, 2008, Canada’s population was estimated at 33,441,300, up 129,900 from July 1.
Compared to the same period in 2007, the rate of growth for Canada’s population advanced, owing to an increase in its net international migration which, at 89,100, set a new record for a third quarter.
Number of non-permanent residents up sharply
This increase in Canada’s net international migration is basically due to an increase in the number of non-permanent residents. While immigration and other components of international migration remained relatively stable compared to the same period last year, the number of non-permanent residents grew by 32,400 during the July-September period, the strongest increase for a third quarter since 1988.
The increase in the number of non-permanent residents was observed throughout Canada. Record increases for all quarters combined were observed in Saskatchewan, Alberta and British Columbia.
Canada received 71,300 immigrants during the third quarter, down slightly from the same quarter in 2007. The Provincial Nominee Program appears to be working, since immigration is increasingly spread across the country.
Compared to the same period in 2007, the number of immigrants received during the third quarter was up everywhere in Canada except in Quebec, Ontario and Yukon. While record numbers of immigrants for a third quarter were set in Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta, immigration levels observed in Prince Edward Island and Manitoba equalled or surpassed previous records, all quarters combined.
Chart 1
Quarterly aggregated demographic components, July to September, 1974 to 2008, Canada
Ontario, which traditionally received more than half of Canada’s immigrants, received less than 45% of newcomers to Canada from July to September 2008. This is the seventh consecutive quarter in which Ontario received less than half of immigrants.
Canada’s natural increase remained stable during the third quarter of 2008 compared to the same period in 2007, with the number of births and deaths rising along similar lines.
Whereas natural increase continued to decline east of Quebec, it was up everywhere else in Canada except in Ontario, the Northwest Territories and Nunavut.
Population growth still stronger in the West
All of Canada’s provinces and territories, with the exception of the Northwest Territories, registered population growth in the third quarter of 2008. This was also the case in the same period last year.
The increase in net international migration almost everywhere in Canada except in Manitoba and Nunavut, along with the resumption of Alberta’s gains in interprovincial migration, affected the demography of other parts of Canada.
Whereas Alberta registered a net interprovincial migration loss of 300 persons in the third quarter of 2007, it registered a gain of 4,900 from July to September 2008. This rebound is mainly attributable to smaller losses in exchanges with its neighbours, Saskatchewan and British Columbia.
Population growth continues to be stronger in Western Canada, with Saskatchewan, Alberta, British Columbia and Yukon posting higher growth than the country as a whole. East of Manitoba, only Prince Edward Island showed population growth above the national level.
For a fourth consecutive quarter, Alberta was the province with the highest demographic growth rate (0.72%). In addition to the rebound of its net interprovincial migration and the highest natural increase of any province, Alberta registered a record level of net international migration for a third quarter.
Despite a decrease in its interprovincial migration gains, British Columbia posted the third strongest growth among Canada’s provinces, behind Alberta and Prince Edward Island. A record increase in the number of non-permanent residents and the highest quarterly immigration since the third quarter of 1997 offset the smaller contribution of interprovincial migration. The drop in British Columbia’s net interprovincial migration is especially due to a decrease in its gains with Alberta and its first negative figure in relation to Ontario since the first quarter of 2003.
In addition to having the highest rate of net interprovincial migration in Canada, Saskatchewan posted record levels of immigrants and of increase in the number of non-permanent residents. The province’s population has been growing steadily since the second quarter of 2006, with growth exceeding that of Canada as a whole since the second quarter of 2007.
Nevertheless, Saskatchewan’s population growth during the third quarter of 2008 is less than in the same quarter last year. Saskatchewan’s net interprovincial migration is lower, owing in particular to a decrease in the province’s gains in exchanges with Alberta.
Even though Manitoba’s interprovincial migration deficit was higher than in the third quarter of 2007, its population continued to grow, notably because of strong immigration. The province continued to have one of the highest immigration rates in Canada. The increase in Manitoba’s interprovincial migration losses is due in particular to an increase in the province’s deficit in exchanges with Alberta and the return of net losses to Ontario. It should also be noted that Manitoba is the only province in Canada to have experienced a decrease in the number of non-permanent residents.
Prince Edward Island and Newfoundland and Labrador stand out in the Atlantic region
The Atlantic provinces all posted population growth from July to September 2008, for a second consecutive quarter. Prince Edward Island continued to dominate the region in terms of population growth, notably owing to the first net international migration net inflows for a third quarter since 2003 and a record number of immigrants. In the third quarter, the province had the highest net international migration rate in Canada. It also recorded its highest net interprovincial migration for a third quarter since 2003.
From July to September 2008, the population of Newfoundland and Labrador registered its strongest quarterly growth rate since the second quarter of 1991, notably owing to strong gains in interprovincial migration. Its net interprovincial migration rate during the third quarter was exceeded only by those of Saskatchewan and Yukon. The province was also a winner in its population exchanges with all the Atlantic provinces and additionally posted sizable net gains in relation to Ontario. It should also be noted that Newfoundland and Labrador was the only province to register negative natural increase during the July to September period.
During the third quarter of 2008, Nova Scotia recorded higher growth than in the same period last year. Its population grew for a sixth consecutive quarter. The province’s net international migration during the past quarter was the highest since the third quarter of 1999. However, this figure was offset in part by the largest interprovincial migration losses since the first quarter of 2007. In particular, losses were recorded in exchanges with Newfoundland and Labrador, Ontario and Alberta.
The population of New Brunswick grew for a seventh straight quarter. While this growth is lower than in the same quarter last year, it is nevertheless the highest for a third quarter since 1993. Concurrently with a record level of net international migration for all quarters combined, the province’s interprovincial migratory losses were up from the same quarter last year. New Brunswick’s losses were mainly at the hands of the other Atlantic provinces but also Quebec and Alberta.
For a fourth consecutive quarter, Ontario’s population growth remained below that of Canada as a whole, despite the lowest interprovincial migration losses since the first quarter of 2007. Ontario’s losses are primarily due to deficits in its exchanges with Newfoundland and Labrador, Saskatchewan and Alberta.
Quebec’s population growth from July to September was the highest since the second quarter of 1991. The number of births, which continues to rise, as well as the highest net international migration for a third quarter since 1988, more than offset the province’s sizable interprovincial migration losses.
In the North, Yukon led in population growth for a third consecutive quarter, mainly owing to its highest international migration for a third quarter since 1991. The population of this territory grew for a sixth consecutive quarter.
The population of the Northwest Territories declined for a third quarter in a row. The Northwest Territories is the only province or territory in Canada to register declines in the past two quarters. This situation is largely due to the territory’s relatively large net losses in interprovincial migration.
Nunavut experienced its largest population growth for a third quarter since 2000. The territory had its lowest interprovincial losses for a third quarter since 2005.
