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Table 11
Models predicting new convictions from population group and other demographic and criminal history factors

Table 11
Models predicting new convictions from population group and other demographic and criminal history factors
Table summary
This table displays the results of Models predicting new convicitons from population group and other demographic and criminal history factors. The information is grouped by Demographic and criminal history factors (appearing as row headers), Model predicting any new conviction, Model predicting any new conviction for a violent offence, Model predicting any new conviction for a property offence, Model predicting any new conviction for an other Criminal Code or federal statute offence, Model predicting any new conviction for an administration of justice offence, Hazard ratio and 95% confidence interval, calculated using from and to units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Demographic and criminal history factors	Model predicting any new conviction			Model predicting any new conviction for a violent offence			Model predicting any new conviction for a property offence			Model predicting any new conviction for an other Criminal Code or federal statute offence			Model predicting any new conviction for an administration of justice offence
	Hazard ratio^{Table 11 Note 1}	95% confidence interval		Hazard ratio^{Table 11 Note 1}	95% confidence interval		Hazard ratio^{Table 11 Note 1}	95% confidence interval		Hazard ratio^{Table 11 Note 1}	95% confidence interval		Hazard ratio^{Table 11 Note 1}	95% confidence interval
	Hazard ratio^{Table 11 Note 1}	from	to	Hazard ratio^{Table 11 Note 1}	from	to	Hazard ratio^{Table 11 Note 1}	from	to	Hazard ratio^{Table 11 Note 1}	from	to	Hazard ratio^{Table 11 Note 1}	from	to
Population group^{Table 11 Note 2}
White^{Table 11 Note †} vs. Indigenous	1.26	1.23	1.29	1.42	1.37	1.48	1.02	0.98	1.05	1.10	1.06	1.14	1.27	1.24	1.31
White^{Table 11 Note †} vs. Black	0.92	0.88	0.96	1.17	1.10	1.26	0.80	0.75	0.85	0.88	0.82	0.95	0.89	0.84	0.94
White^{Table 11 Note †} vs. Other racialized group	0.83	0.78	0.87	0.88	0.81	0.95	0.77	0.71	0.83	0.83	0.76	0.90	0.80	0.75	0.85
Type of correctional supervision^{Table 11 Note 3}
Community^{Table 11 Note †} vs. custody	1.35	1.32	1.38	1.32	1.27	1.37	1.41	1.36	1.46	1.56	1.50	1.62	1.38	1.34	1.42
Gender
Women^{Table 11 Note †} vs. men	1.02	0.99	1.06	1.37	1.30	1.45	0.92	0.88	0.96	1.48	1.40	1.56	1.01	0.97	1.04
Age^{Table 11 Note 4}
18 to 34^{Table 11 Note †} vs. 35 and older	0.77	0.75	0.79	0.66	0.64	0.69	0.74	0.72	0.76	0.62	0.60	0.65	0.72	0.70	0.74
Number of prior convictions^{Table 11 Note 5}
0-1^{Table 11 Note †} vs. 2-4	1.76	1.68	1.85	1.68	1.55	1.83	1.99	1.83	2.15	1.71	1.57	1.86	1.87	1.76	1.99
0-1^{Table 11 Note †} vs. 5-9	3.00	2.86	3.16	2.56	2.36	2.77	4.08	3.77	4.42	2.85	2.63	3.10	3.33	3.14	3.54
0-1^{Table 11 Note †} vs. 10 or more	5.55	5.29	5.81	4.18	3.87	4.51	9.50	8.81	10.25	5.37	4.97	5.81	5.94	5.61	6.29
Any prior conviction for a violent offence^{Table 11 Note 6}
No^{Table 11 Note †} vs. yes	1.03	1.00	1.05	2.02	1.93	2.12	0.79	0.77	0.82	0.88	0.85	0.92	1.06	1.03	1.09
Note † reference category Return to note † referrer Note 1 A hazard ratio is the probability of an event occurring in one group over another group over time. A hazard ratio of 1 means no difference, a hazard ratio greater than 1 means higher risk, and a hazard ratio less than 1 means lower risk. Hazard ratios with a 95% confidence interval that does not include 1 are statistically significant (p < 0.05) Return to note 1 referrer Note 2 Individuals whose population group was unknown are excluded. Indigenous refers to persons who are First Nations people, Métis and/or Inuit. This category includes Indigenous persons who also identified with a racialized group (e.g., Black) as the data did not allow for these individuals to be examined separately. Other racialized group includes South Asian, Latin American, East Asian, Southeast Asian, Arab, West Asian, and racialized group not specified. The concept of racialized groups was measured using the ‘visible minorities' standard. The Employment Equity Act defines visible minorities as “persons, other than Aboriginal peoples, who are non-Caucasian in race or non-white in colour.” As part of ongoing efforts to modernize the national statistical system, the "visible minorities" standard is currently under review, and Statistics Canada has committed to consulting partners, stakeholders and the general public to establish a suitable terminology and classification to describe the population and to meet data needs. Indigenous identity and racialized group information is self-reported upon intake to correctional services. White refers to individuals who identified as neither Indigenous nor with a racialized group. Return to note 2 referrer Note 3 Type of correctional supervision is based on the correctional sentence that led to the individual's inclusion in this study. Custody supervision includes full-time custody and intermittent sentences; community supervision includes conditional sentences and probation. Return to note 3 referrer Note 4 Reflects age on the date of release from full-time custody or the start of an intermittent or community sentence. In other words, the date on which the study began identifying reconvictions. Return to note 4 referrer Note 5 Prior convictions were identified based on the date of the conviction in court for a 10-year period prior to and including the day on which the person was release from full-time custody or started an intermittent or community sentence. It is possible for someone to have 0 prior convictions if their only prior conviction occurred more than 10 years earlier. Return to note 5 referrer Note 6 Violent offences are defined as crimes against the person, which include criminal harassment, uttering threats, assault, sexual assault, other sexual offences and offences in relation to sexual services, robbery, attempted murder, and homicide. Return to note 6 referrer Note: This table presents data for the 2015/2016 cohort of adults supervised by four provincial correctional programs: Nova Scotia, Ontario, Alberta and British Columbia. Saskatchewan does not provide data on racialized groups, therefore, the cohort from Saskatchewan was excluded. Separate Cox regression models were produced for each type of new conviction. Cox regression is a type of survival analysis that allows the relationships between multiple covariates and survival time to be explored. In this case, survival is interpreted as remaining conviction-free. Reconviction is defined as any new federal statute conviction (in any province or territory) with an offence date after release from full-time custody or start of an intermittent or community sentence and before the end of the follow-up period. Someone could have more than one type of new conviction within the follow-up period and, therefore, may be represented in more than one category. Source: Statistics Canada, Canadian Centre for Justice and Community Safety Statistics, Linked Canadian Correctional Services Survey, Integrated Criminal Court Survey and Canadian Vital Statistics – Death Database.

Date modified:: 2024-02-23